ESPN’s Jason Grey reports Giants Catcher Buster Posey is struggling during the Arizona Fall League. I agree with Grey a rough AFL means little when evaluating Posey’s career prospects.
When compared to the game’s other top prospects, my only concern about Posey is his first two seasons at Florida State. While he was spectacular in ’08 (26 HR’s, .463 BA), his numbers the previous two seasons were average (2-3 HR’s, .300 BA). In recent years, I can think of four other “5 star” collegiate hitting prospects that faced competition similar to Posey: Matt Wieters, Pedro Alvarez, Justin Smoak, and Dustin Ackley. Unlike Posey, each of these players posted consistently solid numbers during their collegiate careers.
This is not a serious concern. Here, the most logical explanation is Posey finally “put it together” in 2008. The argument can even be made his tremendous improvement increases his ranking (work ethic, upside, etc). Moreover, the same argument can be made about fellow elite catching prospects Carlos Santana and Jason Castro (who hit .167 his sophomore year at Stanford). Most likely, Posey will begin a great career as the Giants’ Catcher starting next season.