Outfielders: 2010 Values of World Series OFs

phillies-logoFirst and foremost I must say that I think Jayson Werth has made the move to superstar.  He has looked totally in control at the plate this post season and I see that continuing into next season.  His success on the biggest stage may mean that owners will over pay for him next year but I think many will shy away as the masses are generally slow to embrace a new superstar.  He has turned the corner though and this coming season may be the last chance to get him for a reasonable price.  I say that if you can get him for under $30 you should take it as he may be worth as much as $32 (because of his power and SB combination).  The other starting PHI outfielders, Shane Victorino and Raul Ibanez, will continue to put up up their solid numbers (Ibanez’s poor post season notwithstanding).  Both are worth about $25 in 2010.  The Phillies do have two bench outfielders worth noting, Ben Francisco and Michael Taylor.  Between CLE and PHI Ben Francisco was close to a 20 HR and 20 SB season even though he didn’t get a full season of at-bats, providing roughly $15 of value in 2009.  Playing time will be an issue in 2010 so that may scare off a lot of owners but if you can get him for under $10 I think it will be worth the gamble on a fourth outfielder.  Michael Taylor is a legit prospect who will probably head to AAA.  He too could be at least a 20/20 guy down the road so if you can get him and stash him, he’s worth the pickup.

yankees

The Yankees outfield is much less certain in 2010.  Both Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui are free agents and my first impression was that I don’t think either of them will be resigned by the Bronx Bombers unless they are willing to take pay cuts.  After Matsui’s heroics last night and the fact that they won the World Series they may bring them both back.  I doubt it, but I think Cashman is pretty unoriginal so he may just throw money at the situation like he usually does.  I think Damon’s value is set more or less, as he’ll provide $23 worth of value again in 2010 but leaving the Yankees will depress his numbers and, depending where he ends up, he could be worth less than $20 (his 2009 SB totals were the lowest of his career).  I believe injuries are starting to take their toll on Matsui and I don’t think he’ll be worth as much as a DH only in the future.  He provided $17 of value in 2009 and I’d pay that again if he’s on the Yankees but otherwise let someone else pay for him.  I think Melky Cabrera and Nick Swisher will both put up their usual numbers again next year.  They are both roughly worth $15 but if your league counts BBs, Swisher is worth more than that as he consistently get about 100 BBs a season.  Brett Gardner should see more time if Cashman does in fact try to go younger.  He stole 26 bases last season in half a season’s worth of at-bats.  He doesn’t deliver in the power department but in a full season he could steal 50+ with a decent batting average so if he is the starting CF next season he could be worth as much as $20.   He may be a career fourth outfielder so I would be cautious investing heavily in him for the future. The Yankees do have a promising prospect in Austin Jackson who could be ready to play CF in the Majors soon.  He put up pretty good numbers last year in AAA but he will probably have to start the season there in 2010.  He may crack the Opening Day roster depending on free agent moves but I would temper expectations at the beginning as he will definitely experience his rookie ups and downs.  But if you can get him for $7 or less it could be a great investment for the future.