Describing which elite players you “don’t like” is difficult because any good player is worth drafting for the right place. Nevertheless, here are five players I think will go for more than they are worth on draft day.
1. Matt Kemp (He’ll go for: $36, DL: $32, I’d pay: $25)
Kemp reminds me of Jason Bay from several seasons ago, when some fantasy publications suddenly valued him at a really high price. He is an excellent player, but if you exceed $32, why not spend the extra $3-5 on a player like Prince Fielder or Hanley Ramirez.
2. Roy Halladay (He’ll go for: $38, DL: $32, I’d pay: $30)
Halladay is awesome, but my concerns are his numbers were off slightly during the second half, he’s switching to a new league, and he has a new contract. I might be biased here because I am reluctant to spend $30 on starting pitchers.
3. Josh Hamilton (He’ll go for: $32, DL price: $25, I’d pay: $23)
It’s painful to include one of my favorite players, but I think somebody will overpay for Hamilton. My primary concern with Hamilton is durability because it seems unlikely he’ll remain healthy the entire season.
4. Troy Tulowitzki (He’ll go for: $32, DL: $25, I’d pay: n/a)
I drafted Tulowitzki in 2008, and to understand the magnitude of his poor performance, you needed to have him on your roster. While he is currently banned for life from the Fighting Shamrocks, any other team should purchase him for anything less than $22
5. Shin Soo Choo (He’ll go for: $24, DL: $19, I’d pay: $14)
Choo was great last season, but I would let somebody else purchase him. My primary concern is the purchase is based upon the lack of a long-term track record. In addition, Cleveland has so many solid young outfielders (Brantley, Fransisco, Trevor Crowe) it’s not impossible that Choo could get lost in the shuffle if he struggles.