Below is Version #3 of our top 100 prospects. The rankings are a work in progress and we will update regularly. Feedback is key to improving these lists, and we received some excellent input (especially here and John Sickels’ site) showing us several places where the rankings could improve. Feedback is always appreciated, so if you see any prospects you think we overrated or underrated, definitely let us know.
1. Domonic Brown—OF, Phillies
2. Bryce Harper—OF, Nationals
3. Mike Trout—OF, Angels
4. Jeremy Hellickson—P, Rays
5. Aroldis Chapman—P, Reds
6. Julio Teheran—P, Braves
7. Jesus Montero—C, Yankees
8. Dustin Ackley—2B, Mariners
9. Mike Moustakas— 3B, Royals
10. Eric Hosmer—1B, Royals
11. Desmond Jennings—OF, Rays
12. Michael Pineda—P, Mariners
13. Brandon Belt—1B, Giants
14. Kyle Drabek—P, Blue Jays
15. Wil Myers—C, Royals
16. Matt Moore—P, Rays
17. Jameson Taillon—P, Pirates
18. Freddie Freeman—1B, Braves
19. Zach Britton—P, Orioles
20. Jarrod Parker—P, Diamondbacks
21. Mike Minor—P, Braves
22. Lonnie Chisenhall—3B, Indians
23. Manny Machado—SS, Orioles
24. Jacob Turner— P, Tigers
25. Brett Jackson—OF, Cubs
26. Grant Green—SS, Athletics
27. Jordan Lyles—P, Astros
28. Mike Montgomery—P, Royals
29. Shelby Miller—P, Cardinals
30. Kyle Gibson—P, Twins
31. Nick Franklin—SS, Mariners
32. Jennry Mejia—P, Mets
33. Brett Lawrie—2B, Blue Jays
34. Martin Perez—P, Rangers
35. Wilin Rosario—C, Rockies
36. Chris Carter—1B/OF, Athletics
37. John Lamb—P, Royals
38. Miguel Sano—3B, Twins
39. Jonathan Singleton—1B, Phillies
40. Tyler Matzek—P, Rockies
41. Simon Castro— P, Padres
42. Jarred Cosart—P, Phillies
43. Jason Kipnis—2B, Indians
44. Dee Gordon—SS, Dodgers
45. Chris Archer—P, Cubs
46. Aaron Hicks—OF, Twins
47. Alex White—P, Indians
48. Jose Iglesias—SS, Red Sox
49. Devin Mesorasco—C, Reds
50. Chris Sale—P, White Sox
51. Randall Delgado—P, Braves
52. Michael Choice—OF, Athletics
53. Tanner Scheppers—P, Rangers
54. Zach Cox—3B, Cardinals
55. Yonder Alonso—1B, Reds
56. Nick Weglarz—OF, Indians
57. Jurickson Profar—SS, Rangers
58. Drew Pomeranz—P, Indians
59. Billy Hamilton—2B, Reds
60. Derek Norris—C, Nationals
61. Trayvon Robinson—OF, Dodgers
62. Hank Conger—C, Angels
63. Danny Duffy—P, Royals
64. Gary Sanchez—C, Yankees
65. Trey McNutt—P, Cubs
66. Brody Colvin—P, Phillies
67. Manny Banuelos—P, Yankees
68. Yasmani Grandal—C, Reds
69. Zach Lee—P, Dodgers
70. Jean Segura—2B, Angels
71. Anthony Rizzo—1B, Padres
72. Chris Dwyer—P, Royals
73. Jake McGee—P, Rays
74. Wilson Ramos— C, Nationals
75. Casey Kelly—P, Padres
76. Arodys Vizcaino—P, Braves
77. Anthony Gose—OF, Blue Jays
78. Tony Sanchez—C, Pirates
79. Dellin Betances—P, Yankees
80. Christian Colon—SS, Royals
81. Alexander Colome—P, Rays
82. Craig Kimbrel—P, Braves
83. JP Arencebia—C, Blue Jays
84. Jake Odorizzi—P, Royals
85. Tyler Chatwood—P, Angels
86. Danny Espinosa—SS, Nationals
87. Zach Wheeler—P, Giants
88. Jerry Sands—OF, Dodgers
89. Josh Sale—OF, Rays
90. Wilmer Flores—SS, Mets
91. Austin Romine— C, Yankees
92. Deck McGuire—P, Blue Jays
93. Robbie Erlin—P, Rangers
94. Tyler Skaggs—P, Diamondbacks
95. Carlos Perez—P, Braves
96. Travis D’Arnaud—C, Blue Jays
97. Engel Beltre—OF, Rangers
98. Matt Dominguez—3B, Marlins
99. Kenley Jansen—P, Dodgers
100 (tie). Ben Revere—OF, Twins
100 (tie). Anthony Ranaudo—P, Red Sox
100 (tie). Oswaldo Arcia—OF, Twins
100 (tie). Adeiny Hechavarria—SS, Blue Jays
I’d have to say Mesorasco is the better pro prospect, but as a fan of Grandal from college, I think it’s closer than most people think. Mesorasco will get a shot first, and if he continues to build on last season, he will win the job. If he struggles, I’d expect Grandal to possibly be ready by June 2012.
Sale and Lee are tough pitchers to compare. I would say Lee offers the higher ceiling, but he’s further from reaching it. Sale is an excellent pitcher, and unlike most standard “relief prospects,” I’m not cynical about his position status because he will only be kept out of the rotation if the team has serious plans to make him their closer (i.e., Neftali Feliz). With Jenks leaving for Boston, I personally think the Sox will make him their closer. But it’s speculation at this point.
Hey Bradley ! To hit on Nevybear comment a few days ago…What your take on the Red’s future catcher, Mesorasco or Grandal in the end ? Now a pitching question who do you think has more upside as a starter(key work) Chris Sale or Zach Lee. All this talk with Sale going to the pen scares me away from drafting him in a few months. I have a dislike for closers in my league ! Haha Thanks for your input as always ! J.B
He definitely has huge potential. He was a first round pick a few years ago, and after a few seasons which weren’t great, he broke out last year on a massive scale. I rated him a little lower primarily b/c I’m sometimes cynical about jumping a player too much in one year b/c a great season doesn’t always equal a great player. The second thing that concerns me is Yasmani Grandal (a really talented player from Miami) could provide some competition in the not-to-distant future.
I’ll look at Mesorasco again for list #4 b/c his ranking has been a common criticism. The feedback has been awesome, and many times correct. For example, a second look at Domonic Brown gave me serious reservations about the #1 ranking. I wasn’t too concerned that his rookie numbers weren’t great, I think he’ll be an everyday player this year in Philadelphia, and I don’t think the winter league performance is a big deal. However, those three facts make it hard to justify keeping Brown at #1 based on the argument he’ll produce huge numbers his first season while Harper/Trout will not.
Great work with this list. How about some more love for Mesoraco? He seems like he is going to be a beast. Thoughts?
If you are looking for huge upside, I would take Starling ahead of Springer. But in a fantasy league, I would probably pick Rendon, Cole, and Purke over Starling. All three offer comparable upside, and as college players, they are closer to the major leagues. Another issue worth considering is Starling’s football commitment to Nebraska. I am not too concerned b/c I think his future in baseball seems brighter than the NFL. The closest call is Purke. I would still recommend him over Starling in a keeper league…but not by that much.
Bradley,
I see that Bubba Starling is rocketing up big boards right now and ppl are saying he could be the elite bryce harper esk prospect of 2011′s draft. Do you see him ahead of Matt Purke a well polished lefty and a well polished bat in George Springer, or behind them? I’m starting to buy into the hype and was wondering what your take was.
Jed
Thanks for the comments and great idea to start marking the changes. The biggest changes on this list were: (1) adding Kimbrel and Ranaudo, and (2) dropping Mitchell and Luebke. The biggest movers on the list were Carlos Perez and Aaron Hicks.
Avi, thank you for the suggestions. I will definitely look at each suggestion b/c they make a lot of sense, especially Iglesias & Brown. Even though Iglesias is one of my favorite prospects, the ranking doesn’t reflect that a large portion of his value is defense (only matters in fantasy to the extent he gets on the field). I’ll also re-evaluate Brown. My problem is, in our league, owners always seem to get burned by the fast-rising young prospects who arrive in the majors before they are 21 (Porcello, Maybin, Bruce, the Uptons, etc). Even when it’s the right pick, their contract often expires before they get major production. But even assuming that’s true, the ranking only makes sense if Brown will step into the Phillies lineup and produce big #’s from day 1.
I’ll also look into expanding the rankings. The process itself wouldn’t be difficult b/c we can use the positional rankings. The hard part is trying to make sure everything is well-reasoned and avoiding the snubs.
Bravo Bradley, this was a solid list. I thought it did a good job balancing ceilings/floors of the respective players.
Among the few changes I would make would be replacing Kenley Jansen with Andrew Brackman. The all-glove Jose Iglesias vs Danny Espinosa? The latter surely is poised for a greater share of MLB success.
In addition, Tyler Matzek’s high walk rate might make me take him down a few notches.
Also, I would likely be more aggresive with my rankings of Jake Odorizzi, Wilmer Flores, Josh Sale, Jurickson Profar, Danny Espinosa, Dellin Betances, & Jordan Lyles.
Finally, I have to dissent with your choice of Dom Brown as the #1. I recognize that dynasty leagues provide limits of time to hold a prospect, but many require the prospect to be called up to the MLB roster once he exhausts his prospect status with AB/PA limits. Brown has proven all he can in AAA, but he’s stuck in a platoon in RF with Ben Francisco, and there’s simply no way his bat is ready to make contact at Major League level without major adjustments to his bat positioning. He struck out 38.7% of the time.
I nominate Mike Trout for that #1 positioning, because his abilities to make contact and draw walks and possibly contribute to the power and SB categories in the actual near future make him valuable. Manager Mike Scoscia already has said that he envisions Trout contributing later this year, with the exact words “sooner, rather than later.” So in terms of immediate impact, I would say Domonic has little to no edge. Overall, Mike Trout is unquestionably the better prospect.
P.S. Since these lists are fantasy-focused, is it possible to expand the rankings to 250? I don’t want to over-burden you, but it would make sense to expand it. For example, I’m in a 16-team Dynasty with 50 MiLB Roster Spots. That means, (theoretically) the Top 800 players in the minors are rostered. At the end of the day, your rankings are an invaluable resource because it couples your talent evaluation as well as your mastery of fantasy. Thanks, all the best.
Bradley,
I really enjoy these lists. Here’s my only suggestion.
How about adding an indicator showing a player’s movement from your previous list? Something like a +1 or +2 if he moves up the list, a -1 or -2 if he moves down, a “New” if they’re new to the list, and maybe a drop list of the players you dropped.
Keep up the good work.
ummmmmmm…a over 20 space drop for Carlos Perez (ATL)? I mean, you had him high to begin with, but are you overreacting?
I’m biased, but I’ve gotta respectfully disagree. Brown’s #1 ranking is based on differences between real baseball and fantasy keeper leagues. There is no doubt Harper/Trout both offer higher ceilings ultimately, but I would take Brown in a fantasy keeper league. The primary reason is age. In most cases, fantasy keeper leagues limit the duration a team can hold a prospect (my league is three years). Brown and Trout are both younger prospects, and if you play in a league w/ limited duration, there is a good chance Harper/Trout will arrive in the major leagues too early.
Green’s ranking is higher than average, but he is generally considered a top 50 prospect (BA ranked him #52 last year). My reasoning for ranking him higher is his stock is being downgraded due to defensive concerns, and I think his defense will improve. Assuming he can remain at SS, he offers extremely rare offensive ability for the position. I’d like to see the k/bb ratio improve, but on the whole, I feel pretty good about placing him between 25 and 30.
Montero is a divisive prospect, and I’ve gotten criticisms both ways for having him between 5 and 10. There is no doubt he posted terrific offensive numbers as a 20-year old in AAA. There are huge questions whether he can remain at C, but even if he doesn’t, Montero is distinguishable from a prospect like Conger in that a position change doesn’t diminish his value as substantially. His numbers speak for themselves…
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=monter001jes
Pretty rough list, most notable overlist is g green and montero and ill bet dominic brown never develops into much