Below is a look at 2011 player values and basic projections (BA, HR, RBI, R, SB) for first baseman. We will continue to update our 2011 spreadsheet in preparation for your 2011 draft as we go position-by-position. The sheet provides a helpful tool for navigating through the players at your draft and we will update it throughout Spring Training.
Here are the top 30 first baseman and the updated version of our complete 2011 spreadsheet.
1. Albert Pujols—STL $43 .320, 45, 130, 120, 10
2. Miguel Cabrera—DET $37 .310, 35, 120, 100, 0
3. Joey Votto—CIN $32 .310, 30, 110, 90, 5
4. Mark Texeira—NYY $30 .280, 35, 120, 100, 0
5. Adrian Gonzalez—BOS $30 .280, 30, 100, 90, 0
6. Prince Fielder—MLW $30 .270, 35, 110, 100, 0
7. Ryan Howard—PHI $27 .270, 30, 110, 90, 0
8. Justin Morneau—MIN $25 .290, 25, 100, 80, 0
9. Kendry Morales—LAA $24 .290, 25, 90, 75, 0
10. Paul Konerko—CHI $22 .270, 30, 90, 80, 0
11. Adam LaRoche—WAS $19 .260, 20, 85, 70, 0
12. Ike Davis—NYM $18 .270, 20, 80, 70, 0
13. Derek Lee—BAL $17 .270, 20, 80, 70, 0
14. Carlos Pena—CHC $17 .230, 30, 80, 70, 0
15. Adam Lind—TOR $17 .280, 25, 90, 70, 0
16. Aubrey Huff—SFG $16 .270, 20, 75, 65, 0
17. Freddie Freeman—ATL $15 .280, 15, 80, 65, 0
18. Gaby Sanchez—FLA $15 .270, 20, 80, 70, 0
19. Justin Smoak—SEA $14 .250, 20, 70, 60, 0
20. James Loney—LAD $13 .280, 10, 80, 65, 0
21. Mitch Moreland—TEX $12 .280, 10, 60, 50, 0
22. Todd Helton—COL $12 .290, 10, 50, 60, 0
23. Matt LaPorta—CLE $11 .255, 15, 65, 60, 0
24. Brad Hawpe—SD $10 .265, 15, 65, 50, 0
25. Lyle Overbay—PIT $10 .250, 15, 60, 60, 0
26. Kila Ka’aihue—KC $9 .250, 15, 65, 60, 0
27. Daric Barton—OAK $8 .260, 10, 60, 70, 0
28. Brett Wallace—HOU $8 .260, 15, 45, 30, 0
29. Dan Johnson—TB $7 .255, 15, 60, 50, 0
30. Juan Miranda—ARZ $5 .240, 10, 50, 45, 0
Wiggington could post great numbers depending on his # of AB’s. We listed him in the backup infielders section and gave him a decent value. I think spring training will be huge for Wiggington because it’ll show how the Rockies’ IF situation shapes up between Wiggington, Lopez, and EY Jr.
what bout wiggington? he’s always had power to spare and a move to coors could help
Good call on Butler. We have him listed as Kansas City’s DH. I think the team has discussed clearing a lineup spot for Kia’hue by placing Butler at DH. This will likely be the long-term scenario anyway once Eric Hosmer arrives possibly this season or in 2012. It will be interesting to see how Kia’hue performs if he receives a long-term role. Assuming he gets a starting role, he could provide a solid source of cheap power.
Interesting fact about Kila: I went through my old BA prospect manuals and Ka’ihue must hold the record for consecutive handbook appearances! He started getting listed seven years ago in 2003 under the name “Micah Ka’aihue.” Other serious competitors are Wilkin Ramirez and Scott Mathieson. Seven years is pretty impressive considering it’s about twice the length of the average MLB career. Assuming there is not great deal on a free agent, I’m hoping Kila starts the season in the big leagues.
What about Billy Butler? I’m pretty sure KC is his job to lose, it seems unlikely that Kila will start the season in the bigs.
It will definitely be an interesting transition. Gonzalez has been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball the past three seasons, and you could definitely see an upswing in his numbers based on the transition to a hitter’s park. Even more than Fenway, I think the biggest thing that will help Gonzalez is Boston’s lineup. It’s hard to imagine three better guys to hit behind than Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, and Carl Crawford.
I think Gonzalez will be more around 35 to 40 he’s in a more hitter friendly park, he may see better pitching in a tough division but I think he can handle it, he’s a real professional hitter.
We listed Youkilis with the third baseman. We’re going off next season’s projected depth charts, and after the Sox signed Gonzalez, he’s expected to play third. Our league has a rule that a player can qualify at a certain position when it’s widely-known he’ll play there the next year. You’re right Youkilis only qualifies at 1B based on last season’s numbers.
We are definitely on the same page regarding Youkilis’ value. He’s listed at $22 on the preliminary values on the spreadsheet, but we are about to publish our update. Most of our preliminary values moved down, but Youkilis is one of the few who increased after additional research. We have him at $25…exactly the same as Justin Morneau. I would probably place him ahead of Morneau, but not by a huge margin.
What about Youkilis? He’s not 3B eligible yet, so where else could you rank him? Personally, I would consider him at #8 (ahead of Morneau).
Great point. Fielder/Gonzalez is a tough call because I think they offer comparable value. Our projections generally provide a rough estimate of a player’s statistics, and Fielder epitomizes the difficulty of predicting a player’s stats. Prince posted monster numbers in 2007 and 2009, but then performed below expectation in’08 and ’10. Gonzalez’s numbers the past several seasons have been more consistent.
One could make a strong argument Fielder is more valuable based on the assumption that 2011 will be a monster year if the “up and down” progression continues. But that trend could be a coincidence, and I think there is generally more value in consistent numbers. You are right Gonzalez’s projections are somewhat conservative, especially considering Gonzalez is going to be in a better lineup (Crawford, Pedroia, Ellsbury, etc) in a more hitter-friendly park.
That stat line for A-Gon seems ultra conservative. Just using your projections, you would think you would have Fielder at 5 and Gonzalez at 6. .270, 35, 110, 100, 0 sounds more valuable than .280, 30, 100, 90, 0. More runs, hr’s, and rbi’s for Fielder with only a 10 point difference in BA.
Butler and Dunn would both have no trouble making this list, but we listed them in the designated hitter section of the spreadsheet. The placement is questionable because they’ll both certainly see some time playing 1B. We’ll have a post valuing the guys listed in the DH spots. I believe our preliminary value for Butler was $22 while Dunn is listed at $26.
where is billy butler,i know hes at least in top 20 over .300 average and at least 20 hrs
ADAM DUNN???