Moving around the horn we take a look at the player values and basic projections (BA, HR, RBI, R, SB) for shortstops. We will continue to update our 2011 spreadsheet in preparation for your 2011 draft as we go position-by-position. The sheet provides a helpful tool for navigating through the players at your draft and we will update it throughout Spring Training.
Here are the top 30 shortstops and the updated version of our complete 2011 spreadsheet.
1. Hanley Ramirez—FLA $34 .310, 30, 90, 100, 30
2. Troy Tulowitzki—COL $28 .290, 30, 100, 90, 10
3. Jose Reyes—NYM $26 .280, 10, 60, 90, 40
4. Jimmy Rollins—PHI $23 .270, 20, 70, 80, 25
5. Derek Jeter—NYY $20 .300, 10, 60, 100, 10
6. Elvis Andrus—TEX $19 .270, 5, 50, 90, 30
7. Alexei Ramirez—CWS $19 .280, 15, 70, 80, 10
8. Stephen Drew—ARI $17 .270, 15, 70, 80, 5
9. Rafael Furcal—LAD $16 .280, 10, 50, 90, 20
10. Starlin Castro—CHI $13 .300, 5, 50, 60, 15
11. Yunel Escobar—TOR $13 .270, 10, 50, 70, 10
12. Jason Bartlett—SD $12 .260, 10, 60, 70, 15
13. Marco Scutaro—BOS $12 .270, 10, 50, 80, 5
14. Ian Desmond—WAS $12 .260, 10, 50, 60, 20
15. Alexi Casilla—MIN $12 .260, 0, 40, 50, 25
16. Asdrubal Cabrera—CLE $12 .280, 5, 50, 60, 10
17. Jhonny Peralta—DET $11 .250, 15, 70, 60, 0
18. Alcides Escobar—KC $10 .250, 5, 40, 70, 20
19. Erick Aybar—LAA $10 .260, 5, 40, 70, 20
20. Miguel Tejada—SF $10 .260, 15, 60, 60, 0
21. Cliff Pennington—OAK $9 .250, 5, 50, 60, 25
22. Alex Gonzalez—ATL $9 .250, 15, 60, 60, 5
23. Ryan Theriot—SD $9 .270, 5, 40, 60, 20
24. JJ Hardy—BAL $8 .260, 15, 60, 50, 0
25. Reid Brignac—TB $7 .250, 10, 50, 50, 5
26. Yuniesky Betancourt—KC $7 .250, 10, 50, 50, 10
27. Edgar Renteria—CIN $5 .270, 5, 40, 40, 5
28. Clint Barmes—HOU $4 .240, 10, 50, 40, 0
29. Ronny Cedeno—PIT $2 .230, 5, 30, 40, 5
30. Jack Wilson—SEA $2 .240, 0, 30, 40, 0
I sorta like Escobar too. I was really surprised w/ the low batting average last season b/c he’s always been a pretty good contact hitter and there’s no question he is really fast. We projected a 15 point increase in his batting average, but he’s one guy who could really breakout. If you play in an auction keeper league, Escobar could be a solid buy this season and it would be awesome getting him for several seasons at an undervalued price.
Long-term, there is some concern that KC has two solid MI options in Colon and Giavotella. If Escobar breaks out, I think they’d love using him as their everyday SS and moving Colon to 2B to compete w/ Giavotella.
SLEEPER ON THIS LIST IS ALCIDES ESCOBAR. HIS STEALS WILL B WAY UP THIS YR. HE WILL GET THE CHANCE TO PLAY EVERYDAY FOR THE ROYALS. AS WE KNOW DIDNT HAPPEN LAST YR. IT ALWAYS SEEMED TO ME HED PUT TOGETHER A VERY GOOD GAME AND HED SIT THE NEXT DAY. VERY PORELY MANAGED IN MY OPINION. ON TOP OF PLAYING EVERYDAY THEY WILL HAVE HIM RUNNING AT WILL TO PROVE HIS WORTH FROM THE GREINKE DEAL. MIGHT WANT TO CONSIDER AN UPGRADE IN ATLEAST THE STEAL DEPARTMENT ON YOUR PROJECTIONS. I FELL A NEW ENVIROMENT SHOULD PLAY A HUGE ROLE ON WHAT U PROJECT A PLAYER TO DO. JUST MY 2 CENTS. THANKS MAN.
What’s up Kiley! Definitely a fun wedding and I’m glad you enjoyed your first trip to Houston! Our site is definitely an intense baseball site…lots of obscure names. This is kinda funny. I was checking our links this morning, and we showed up on a message board in Japan! They are definitely talking about the site…wish I knew what they were saying though. Haha.
http://2bangai.net/read/c0b65a4f60c26ac4ed63cddf936786a19dc73150f8371b2df40280e4f183222b/
Hi Bradley and Flint –
Have enjoyed checking out the site – very impressive! I don’t know much about baseball but I can tell you guys do. Nice to meet both of you at the wedding last weekend.
Kiley
Haha, what’s up Spencer. I’d guess 5:1, but considering Flint’s had the wedding and stuff, I’d say the ratio is pretty good. Plus, it’s much more of a collaborative effort than the postings indicate. The rankings are a group effort (emailed back and forth) and Flint provides the first input about where the rankings could get better. It’s definitely easy to tell the rankings where I’ve had Flint’s input from the ones where I haven’t b/c there are always a few clear mistakes.
Glad you like the site!
Bradley,
This site is pretty phenomenal. What is the ratio of Bradley posts to Flint posts? My bet would 10 to 1…at least.
I bought Desmond at $8 last year in my NL-only league, and it worked out well. What’s interesting is most of projections for Desmond see his batting average increasing 5-10 points next season (.269 to .280). We projected a slight drop based on his strikeout totals and a few other random observations. I think he has the potential to post 20/20 numbers, and if you think the average will increase to .280, he’s worth at least $15.
Another moderate concern is last season’s error totals were high (30-something). Defense doesn’t directly affect a fantasy team, it could affect his playing time if those totals get worse. I doubt that will happen, but it’s still a slight concern.
My sleeper pick on this list.. Ian Desmond! I see potential 25-25 ability in this guy.. He may never hit .300 or even stay at Shortstop but he has some pop in his bat.. Id gamble on him in round 7 or 8 in a 12 team league
Interesting call on Aybar. His strikeout percentage jumped by 5% last season while his BABIP was slightly low. So it’s easy to envision his batting average will increase. Also, even though I haven’t researched it, I’m guessing there is data indicating the 29 RBI’s last year was the product of bad luck. I’m guessing he’ll get a nice increase in that category. He’s a talented player, so assuming you can really get him at $10, it’s probably a good time to buy low.
I think Aybar could be more productive like he was in 09. His strike-outs were up above his normal rate and he was probably under a lot of pressure to repeat last years numbers. And when you look at Morales’ return and Wells as the new left fielder the offense should be better and they’re boasting a top of the line rotation.
Interesting suggestion! I’m sorta bearish on Lowrie, so it’s good to hear an alternate viewpoint. You are right that his numbers averaged over a full season are really impressive. Check out Bill James’ projection for Lowrie over at fangraphs: 550 AB’s, 17 HR’s, 75 RBI’s, and 75 R’s! The CAIRO projections are lower, and have him at 376 AB’s, 7 HR’s, 54 RBI’s, and 51 R’s.
My concern is Boston’s system is loaded with middle infielders who could cut into Lowrie’s playing time. If Lowrie struggles or gets injured again, I think Yamaico Navarro could earn a promotion early in the season, and long-term, Jose Iglesias (and maybe Ruben Tejada) will be tough competition.
We will do a backup “infielders post” and Lowrie will be near the top of the list. But it’s definitely helpful reevaluating my opinion b/c he’s an interesting option in fantasy leagues.
(sorry, by “stats” for Lowrie I meant OPS)
I think I’d put Jed Lowrie around 11-15 and drop Scutaro down to 15-20. Early reports I’ve seen suggest Lowrie filling super-utility role in the infield. His rate stats last year (3rd-best in MLB behind HRam, Tulo) applied to 400-500 ABs this year would be great value and might make him a top ten SS by the end of the year.
Good call on Theriot! Not sure how I ended up typing in “SD”….fixing that right now. Feedback re: typos is appreciated, so if anybody sees a mistype, let us know and we’ll fix it.
Those are optimistic projections for Rollins. The BA projection is definitely an unemphatic .270 b/c I switched between .260 and .270 three times. I think his batting average will improve this season—but considering he’s averaged about .250 the past two years—it’s awfully optimistic to predict a 20 point increase.The power projections are also optimistic, and realistically, 15 might be a more reasonable #.
Theriot should be listed as STL
You’re looking for quite a good year from Rollins.