Next up on our player values and basic projections (BA, HR, RBI, R, SB) is third baseman. Ranking third base showed that we could be seeing a changing of the guard at third in 2011. As always we will continue to update our 2011 spreadsheet it throughout Spring Training in preparation for your 2011 draft as we go position-by-position. The spreadsheet provides a helpful tool for navigating through the players at your draft.
Here are the top 30 third baseman and the updated version of our updated 2011 spreadsheet. Feedback is always appreciated, so definitely let us know if you see players you think are valued too high or too low.
1. David Wright—NYM $31 .300, 30, 100, 100, 20
2. Evan Longoria—TB $30 .295, 30, 110, 100, 10
3. Alex Rodriguez—NYY $30 .280, 35, 110, 90, 10
4. Kevin Youkilis—BOS $28 .290, 25, 90, 100, 5
5. Ryan Zimmerman—WAS $27 .280, 25, 90, 90, 5
6. Jose Bautista—TOR $25 .250, 30, 90, 80, 5
7. Adrian Beltre—TEX $23 .280, 25, 85, 75, 5
8. Pedro Alvarez—PIT $21 .275, 25, 90, 80, 5
9. Aramis Ramirez—CHC $20 .270, 25, 90, 70, 0
10. Casey McGehee—MLW $19 .280, 20, 90, 70, 0
11. Mark Reynolds—ARZ $17 .230, 35, 90, 80, 5
12. Chone Figgins—SEA $17 .270, 0, 40, 75, 30
13. Ian Stewart—COL $16 .260, 20, 70, 80, 5
14. Pablo Sandoval—SFG $14 .300, 15, 75, 70, 0
15. Placido Polanco—PHI $12 .295, 10, 60, 80, 5
16. Scott Rolen—CIN $12 .275, 15, 75, 65, 0
17. Chipper Jones—ATL $11 .290, 15, 65, 65, 5
18. Chris Johnson—HOU $11 .280, 20, 70, 60, 0
19. David Freese—STL $10 .295, 15, 80, 70, 0
20. Chase Headley—SD $10 .280, 10, 65, 60, 10
21. Danny Valencia—MIN $8 .290, 10, 70, 60, 0
22. Mike Aviles—KC $7 .280, 10, 50, 70, 10
23. Alberto Callaspo—LAA $6 .280, 5, 50, 70, 5
24. Kevin Kouzmanoff—OAK $6 .260, 15, 75, 60, 0
25. Casey Blake—LAD $5 .250, 15, 60, 60, 0
26. Mark Teahan—CHW $5 .260, 10, 50, 60, 5
27. Brandon Inge—DET $5 .230, 15, 60, 50, 0
28. Melvin Mora—ARZ $3 .270, 5, 40, 40, 0
29. Jason Nix—CLE $2 .260, 0, 20, 30, 5
30. Wes Helms—FLA $2 .240, 5, 30, 20, 0
Young is listed in the DH section. We went position-by-position using the spreadsheet. I placed Young in the DH spot b/c I predicted that would be his primary role after Texas signed Beltre. He’s definitely eligible at 3B though.
Agreed with Alex. Where is Michael Young?
Sandoval is extremely fun to follow. How can you not cheer for a player nicknamed “Kung Fu Panda?” It’s encouraging to see he’s trimmed down and mild improvements in plate discipline could lead to better results. Last year, he was one of the most aggressive hitters in baseball along w/ Vlad, Francouer, and Delmon Young. He swung at 44% of pitches outside the strike zone! He’s always going to be aggressive, and the trick will be making reasonable improvements in his physical condition while adjusting his approach to recognize situations where teams are blatantly taking advantage of his aggressiveness.
love me some panda! this post here per rotoworld:”Pablo Sandoval has revealed that he’s worked with Barry Bonds this off season on improving his plate discipline.
We seem to be looking at a highly motivated Kung Fu Panda. Not only has Sandoval lost reportedly over 20 pounds this off season, but he’s wisely seeking hitting advice from one of the best of all-time. It appears he’s taking GM Brian Sabean’s threat of starting him in the minors to heart and looking to bounce back from a hugely disappointing 2010 season. There’s big-time rebound potential here.”
i hate to use others writing but all signs r pointing the right way!did people really believe he would eat his way out of the league? hes my pick for rebound player of the yr!!!!go kung fu panda. lets even hope he grabbed barrys bad habits for fantasy sake. ill risk it. lol. just playing i don’t recommend the roids. lol
Not a bad prediction. It could also benefit Zimmerman the Nationals’ lineup—assuming things go according to plan—should improve w/ Werth, LaRoche, etc.
Third base is a tough position this year b/c I don’t have many great sleeper predictions. One sleeper I sorta like is Alberto Callaspo at $6. He is one of the best contact hitters in the game (consistently over 90%), and watching him, I think his bat control is unbelievable. Under the right circumstances, I’ve always thought he could post an awesome batting average (.320 or .330).
But I’ve predicted this for years and it’s never happened. It’s primarily because he’s not a particularly patient hitter, and he doesn’t have quite enough speed or power to translate the ridiculous contact rates into an elite batting average. Even if he doesn’t have a huge breakout, this is good year to buy b/c last year’s BABIP (.269) was really low and I think next year’s performance should be closer to 2009.
I’m a big Zimmerman fan, and he’s been a great player for years hard to imagine he’s only in his age 26 season his best years are ahead of him, and he’s just getting into his prime now, he could very well put together a .300, 35, 100, 95, 5.
What’s up y’all,
Good comments. Young is definitely eligible at third base. We’re going by the positions listed on our spreadsheet, and we have Young listed in the DH spot. The preliminary value we set for him was $18, which is perhaps optimistic.
Interesting call about Beltre heading to Texas. Vlad’s big season was predicted by a large number of people who looked at the #’s he had produced hitting in Arlington in previous years. I haven’t checked whether Beltre put up similar huge statlines in Arlington (probably should). Regardless, I still think it’s reasonable to project a slight downgrade b/c-based on what happened in Seattle-there are some concerns whether the new contract will affect his performance.
It would be awesome to see Sandoval bounce back. He’s a hard player to value because he tends to surprise people. I don’t think plate discipline will ever be his strength, but improved conditioning would be a possible indicator of a bounce back. Even though an improvement is possible, Sandoval is a player I would avoid b/c there will likely be an owner willing to overpay not realizing the extent of his 2010 troubles.
….Michael Young? he’s got the eligibility…
PABLO WILL BOUNCE BACK. PEOPLE R REALLY SLEEPING ON HIM. HE WAS REALLY GOOD 2 YRS AGO AND ALL REPORTS HAVE HIM BACK IN SHAPE. IAN STEWART CANT HOLD HIS JOCK IN MY OPINION. ID ALSO LIKE TO C A LITTLE MORE OUT OF MCGEE B4 IM BUYING IN ON HIM.TOP 5 IS DEAD ON OTHER THEN MAYBE A SWAP AT THE TOP WITH WRIGHT AND LONGO.
BELTRES PLAYING IN TEXAS RIGHT? IM NOT A FAN OF BELTRE OR ANYTHING BUT WHOS NUMBERS ACTUALLY GO DOWN IN THAT PARK? IF THE NUMBERS DONT GET BETTER ID ALMOST B SHOCKED REALLY. LOL. ASK VLAD IF THEY THINK HIS NUMBERS FROM LAST YR WOULD HOLD UP ANYWHERE ELSE.
Haha. Jose Bautista hitting 50 HR’s is definitely not something I predicted! I’m glad Flint did these projections b/c I really have no idea what Bautista will do. Interesting thought on A-Rod. He’s still one of the most talented hitters in the game, and you are right the home run totals are better when you consider he didn’t play a full-season. We predict a slight increase in his numbers, which is based on exactly what you’re saying. The reason we’re slightly less bullish is b/c he’s another year older this year.
Hopefully, Beltre won’t repeat his 2005 performance in Seattle. I think fantasy teams should be moderately concerned and project a downgrade in his numbers. Might be better to let somebody else get him assuming he isn’t way undervalued.
Jose Bautista is rated a little high. I he should be a little closer to Mark Reynolds with his batting average. Now if he hits 50 home runs again…
I still think A-Rod has 40, or even 50, homerun potential. He has averaged 39 homers over the past 3 years, if he played in 162 games. He is older so you can expect some injuries but there isn’t a reason to believe why he shouldn’t have his best season since 2007. The hip surgery is now behind him and I think he could be the elite hitter he once was.
I never really got why Beltre got 96 million. He only has two really good years and a bunch of average ones. I think you can expect defense but not the same hitter.