Next up on our player values and basic projections (BA, HR, RBI, R, SB) is outfield. As you can see, this is a longer post ranking the top 90 because there are more outfielders. The post covers the outfielders we project as starters. There are several more valuable backup outfielders (Kalish, etc) who will be ranked in a separate post covering backups. As always, we will continue to update our 2011 spreadsheet it throughout Spring Training in preparation for your 2011 draft as we go position-by-position. The spreadsheet provides a helpful tool for navigating through the players at your draft.
Here are the top 90 outfielders and the updated version of our updated 2011 spreadsheet. Feedback is always appreciated, so definitely let us know if you see players you think are valued too high or too low.
1. Carl Crawford—BOS $34 .300, 15, 70, 100, 40
2. Ryan Braun—MIL $33 .310, 35, 110, 100, 5
3. Josh Hamilton—TEX $31 .320, 30, 100, 90, 5
4. Carlos Gonzalez—COL $31 .310, 30, 100, 100, 20
5. Matt Holliday—STL $30 .300, 30, 100, 90, 10
6. Jayson Werth—WAS $27 .290, 30, 90, 80, 10
7. Matt Kemp—LAD $26 .270, 25, 90, 100, 20
8. Shin Soo Choo—CLE $26 .300, 20, 90, 100, 10
9. An. McCutcheon—PIT $25 .280, 20, 80, 110, 40
10. Justin Upton—ARI $25 .280, 30, 90, 90, 10
11. Nelson Cruz—TEX $25 .270, 30, 90, 80, 10
12. Ichiro Suzuki—SEA $25 .310, 5, 60, 100, 30
13. Jacoby Ellsbury—BOS $24 .280, 5, 50, 100, 40
14. Andre Either—LAD $24 .270, 25, 90, 70, 10
15. Jason Heyward—ATL $23 .260, 25, 80, 90, 20
16. Hunter Pence—HOU $23 .280, 25, 80, 80, 10
17. Shane Victorino—PHI $22 .280, 10, 70, 90, 30
18. Michael Bourn—HOU $21 .260, 5, 40, 80, 40
19. Mike Stanton—FLA $21 .260, 30, 90, 80, 10
20. Nick Markakis—BAL $21 .300, 20, 90, 80, 5
21. Torii Hunter—LAA $21 .270, 20, 80, 80, 10
22. Jason Bay—NYM $20 .260, 25, 80, 70, 15
23. Delmon Young—MIN $20 .280, 20, 90, 80, 5
24. Jay Bruce—CIN $20 .270, 25, 90, 70, 5
25. Alex Rios—CWS $20 .270, 20, 70, 80, 20
26. Nick Swisher—NYY $20 .260, 30, 90, 80, 0
27. Curtis Granderson—NYY $19 .260, 20, 70, 90, 10
28. Drew Stubbs—CIN $19 .250, 20, 70, 80, 30
29. Juan Pierre—CWS $19 .270, 0, 40, 80, 45
30. Brett Gardner—NYY $19 .270, 10, 50, 80, 40
31. BJ Upton—TB $19 .260, 10, 50, 80, 40
32. Corey Hart—MIL $19 .270, 25, 90, 70, 5
33. Chris Young—ARI $19 .250, 25, 80, 80, 20
34. Colby Rasmus—STL $18 .270, 20, 60, 80, 20
35. Carlos Quentin—CWS $18 .250, 25, 80, 70, 0
36. Vernon Wells—LAA $18 .270, 20, 70, 70, 10
37. Martin Prado—ATL $18 .300, 15, 60, 80, 5
38. Austin Jackson—DET $17 .250, 20, 60, 90, 30
39. Denard Spann—MIN $17 .280, 10, 60, 90, 20
40. Adam Jones—BAL $17 .270, 20, 70, 80, 20
41. Grady Sizemore—CLE $17 .270, 20, 70, 80, 10
42. Andres Torres—SF $16 .260, 15, 60, 80, 30
43. Carlos Lee—HOU $16 .270, 25, 80, 70, 0
44. Lance Berkman—STL $16 .260, 25, 80, 70, 0
45. Magglio Ordonez—DET $16 .280, 20, 80, 70, 0
46. Rajai Davis—TOR $16 .260, 5, 50, 70, 35
47. Raul Ibanez—PHI $15 .290, 20, 80, 70, 0
48. Marlon Byrd—CHI $15 .300, 15, 70, 70, 10
49. Dexter Fowler—COL $15 .270, 10, 60, 80, 25
50. Michael Cuddyer—MIN $15 .280, 15, 80, 70, 5
51. Alfonso Soriano—CHI $15 .260, 20, 70, 70, 10
52. JD Drew—BOS $15 .270, 15, 70, 70, 0
53. Carlos Beltran—NYM $15 .260, 15, 60, 70, 5
54. Angel Pagan—NYM $15 .260, 10, 50, 70, 25
55. Nyjer Morgan—WAS $14 .260, 5, 50, 70, 30
56. Coco Crisp—OAK $14 .260, 5, 50, 70, 25
57. Johnny Damon—TB $14 .270, 15, 50, 70, 15
58. Chris Coghlan—FLA $14 .280, 10, 60, 70, 5
59. Domonic Brown—PHI $14 .250, 15, 60, 60, 15
60. Will Venable—SD $14 .250, 10, 60, 60, 15
61. Logan Morrison—FLA $13 .270, 15, 60, 60, 0
62. Josh Willingham—OAK $13 .240, 20, 70, 50, 0
63. Jose Tabata—PIT $13 .270, 10, 60, 70, 25
64. Franklin Gutierrez—SEA $13 .250, 15, 60, 70, 10
65. Julio Borbon—TEX $13 .280, 5, 40, 80, 25
66. Ryan Ludwick—SD $13 .250, 20, 70, 70, 0
67. Garrett Jones—PIT $13 .250, 20, 80, 60, 5
68. Desmond Jennings—TB $12 .260, 5, 40, 70, 20
69. David DeJesus—OAK $11 .270, 10, 60, 80, 0
70. Travis Snider—TOR $11 .250, 20, 60, 50, 0
71. Juan Rivera—TOR $10 .270, 15, 60, 60, 5
72. Seth Smith—COL $10 .270, 10, 60, 60, 5
73. Ryan Raburn—DET $10 .260, 20, 70, 60, 0
74. Kuske Fukudome—CHI $10 .270, 10, 60, 60, 5
75. Jonny Gomes—CIN $10 .250, 20, 70, 50, 0
76. Alex Gordon—KC $9 .250, 20, 60, 60, 0
77. Peter Bourjos—LAA $9 .250, 0, 40, 70, 25
78. Cody Ross—SF $9 .260, 20, 70, 50, 0
79. Cameron Maybin—SD $8 .250, 15, 60, 60, 20
80. Nate McLouth—ATL $8 .250, 10, 50, 50, 10
81. Felix Pie—BAL $7 .270, 10, 50, 50, 5
82. Michael Brantley—CLE $7 .260, 5, 40, 70, 30
83. Michael Saunders—SEA $6 .250, 10, 50, 50, 5
84. Melky Cabrera—KC $6 .260, 10, 40, 50, 5
85. Carlos Gomez—MIL $6 .240, 5, 30, 60, 30
86. Jeff Francoeur—KC $6 .240, 15, 60, 50, 0
87. Mark DeRosa—CLE $5 .260, 10, 50, 50, 5
88. Xavier Nady—ARI $5 .250, 10, 60, 50, 0
89. Rick Ankiel—WAS $5 .240, 10, 50, 40, 0
90. Jay Gibbons—LAD $3 .240, 10, 40, 30, 0
Agreed. 20/70/70 is definitely on the low side, and I’ve seen some projections that are much higher (30/90/90). To some extent, players with horrible contracts are not bad fantasy options because the backlash from the huge contract hurts their value. Wells isn’t a bad player…he just has one heck of an agent.
The ‘stros have our own Vernon Wells w/ Carlos Lee. He’s not a bad player (not many players with his power can sustain high contact rates), but he gets a lot of criticism b/c he’s getting overpaid at a time when the huge contract isn’t helping the team. Lee is a pretty generic sleeper in fantasy leagues, but assuming he’s available in your league for $16, I would recommend taking a chance.
Do you think with the change of scenery, Venon Wells should have better stats then 20/70/70? The “worse contract in baseball” at least will give you half decent numbers!!
You are totally right that projection is low. Bourjos never showed power at the lower-levels of the minor leagues, but last season, he hit 13 in AAA and 6 in Anaheim. He’s not a power hitter, but a zero projection is too low. Our projections are aimed more at getting a rough estimate of the players’ skillset. This is partially b/c there are so many players, and our method is that one person (Flint or myself) created the initial projections and the other person edited the projections that appears off. There are occasional places where the projections themselves would have changed w/ a little extra time to go through everybody.
It’s worth checking the pages w/ the current chart b/c many of the values have changed. Most importantly, the chart is more geared toward actual value while the projection values are geared toward the price we think they’d go for in a deep league auction draft. Also, two other great sources of player projections are fangraphs (combines multiple opinions, including Bill James) and the CAIRO projections. Both are more geared toward making a precise projection rather than providing an overview of the players’ skillset.
P.s. Thanks for the awesome site, super helpful!
0 hr’s for bourjos? Really? 5 for Elvis Andrews, but 0 for bourjos? I find that weird.
What’s up Simon,
You are absolutely correct our values are geared toward deeper leagues. We assume 23 teams where each team can hold 23 players. This increases the value of mediocre players because valuation is highly dependent on replacement value available on the free agent list. Our rankings are more aggressive about valuing “mediocre starting pitching” b/c of the potential damage bad pitchers can inflict on a team in a deep league. As the number of teams is reduced, the value of the best players increases while the value of mediocre players decreases.
I used to be somewhat critical of “customized computer values,” but I found a good source this year. This guide uses CAIRO projections, and does a terrific job following a logical formula regarding how the addition of teams (and categories) affects value. For readers in smaller leagues, I would recommend looking at this source’s values. There is also fantasy rundown, which does a terrific job combining multiple sources into a single site.
http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/priceguide/
http://www.fantasyrundown.com
I agree w/ need something showing which players offer better upside because that affects a player’s value in keeper leagues. One idea was to update our spreadsheet to italicize the names of players offering superior long-term upside (or put an upward arrow beside their names).
Apologies, I would have added this to the previous comment, but I can’t edit it. I would find it useful to have some info on how a player may perform over the next few years, for dynasty/keeper leagues, even if it’s something as simple as – will improve/has potential to improve/stable/might be declining/old.
What settings/size of league are the dollar values based on? By eye, they must be for relatively large leagues – any thoughts on how they scale for smaller leagues? I guess the top of the range guys have broadly similar values, but you get down to replacement value that much faster, so the guys in the middle lose more of their value.
Good question. We listed Blanks as a backup infielder. His preliminary value is $3, but that could change depending on his projected playing time. With a good performance in spring training, he could increase his value by taking some playing time from Brad Hawpe or finding an increased role in the outfield.
Where does Kyle Blanks fit in?
What’s up Ethan,
40 points is extreme! We don’t have any concerns that are particularly original: he struck out 170 times and posted a BABIP of .396 last year. Therefore, my logic was to expect a major decrease in BA.
But the comment made me look at Jackson’s stats more closely and it’s interesting. Despite last year’s totals, Bill James projects a five point increase in Jackson’s batting average! James’ projection looks deeper into the numbers to consider some things I overlooked. There are two main factors arguably explaining Jackson’s BABIP: (1) Jackson’s ridiculous speed allowed him to turn 12% of ground balls into infield hits; and (2) Jackson posted the third highest percentage of line drives (25%) in baseball behind Joe Mauer and James Loney.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9848&position=OF
An argument can be made Jackson is a player who needs to be evaluated using a different “standard BABIP” because his skills will lead him to score really high in that category. His BABIP’s were consistently that high in the minors, so even though I think .396 was lucky, it wasn’t necessarily phenomenally lucky based on his skillset.
Austin Jackson at .250? I know he was pretty lucky last year but 40 points is kinda extreme.
There are a few rare situations where a player is valued slightly higher despite having statistical projections that are slightly lower. This can occur for various reasons, most commonly because of a player’s injury history or various issues which could have a drastic effect on a player’s performances. Unfortunately, this is probably not one of those situations.
I could create an “after the fact” explanation for why Ross is $1 lower than Gomes, but in reality, I think the ranking should be reversed. When I created the rankings, I started thinking about how a crowded Giants’ outfield could affect Ross’ playing time (Pat Burrell, DeRosa, Rowand, Schierholz, etc). But thinking about it more, Gomes is in a similar situation competing w/ Heisey, Lewis, and Alonso. Plus, Ross’ RBI and runs projections are probably less optimistic than Gomes’ projections. I think their values are close, but looking more closely, putting Ross ahead makes sense.
We appreciate the feedback.
Johnny Gomes valued slightly higher than Cody Ross, with same projections in 4 categories, but a LOWER batting average? Please explain.
Thanks! We definitely need to add AB estimates. The problem is our baseball knowledge currently exceeds our web design skills, and we operate on a format where it’s tough getting the information to appear organized. We thought posting more information would look disorganized and/or confusing. Regardless of whether it looks messy, we should add estimated AB’s because that information is crucial (explains playing time, injury history, etc).
I’m cautiously optimistic on Borbon. Last season, his statistics were pulled down by a poor April (he pushed .300 not counting April). It’s also possible his stolen bases will increase considering he stole 44 between AAA and MLB in 2009. On the flip side, his only great month was June and you can argue last year’s stolen base totals are more indicative of his speed. Playing time is also a concern. Some only see him getting 300 AB’s, which would really hurt his value.
Another very interesting list, gentlemen.
I understand that these are your projections for STARTERS and that a KEY BACKUP list is soon to follow. I like that approach.
Are you able to give your AB estimates for these starters and backups?
And here is where I am heading….
I see where you have Julio Borbon – TEX projected at number 65OF, 13$, 280.5.40.80.25. I have recently read several articles where Texas will not hesitate to pull Borbon, slide Hamilton back to CF, and play Murphy in LF if Julio struggles early.
With an estimated ABs number, you provide insite on how you project these battles slash platoon situations work out.
If Borbons projections above are based on 375 ABs but I think Borbon is going to earn 500ABs, I can modify my projections.
Thanks guys. Keep up the good work.
Gonzalez is an interesting player to evaluate. Last year’s numbers were phenomenal, but there are some concerns. First, his BABIP last season was .390 which is really high. Second, he swung at 37% of pitches outside the zone while generating lots of strikeouts. Finally, his HR/FB rate was higher than expected. Therefore, some argue the numbers aren’t sustainable.
I think some of the numbers can be attributed to luck while some can be attributed to a talented player adjusting well to Coors Field. Last year, Cargo hit .380 at Coors w/ 26 of his 34 HR’s coming at home. That partially explains the great BABIP and HR/FB rates because the larger outfield (increases BABIP) and balls carrying more at Coors. Therefore, we tried to value him between the people rating him the best outfielder and people expecting a major drop.
It’s worth noting there are concerns w/ Hamilton too. Any time a hitter has a big year, there is always a way to find numbers indicating they won’t repeat.
i do not like crawford at the top guys. i know the steals r nice but id much rather cash in on 1 of those other 3 u have listed next and grab a micheal bourn or ellsbury later for my steals. id have to go cargo number 1!!!!!!hes freakin awsome.
We have Manny as a DH and he will be ranked when we produce that list. Right now we think Manny should be worth $18 which would have put him at 34th on this list. All reports are that he is in great shape and very motivated. Of course his motivation must be taken with a grain of salt and we’ve generally downgraded him because he is a risky buy. There are other options who can produce similar numbers at the same price and without the risk. He’s capable of having a good year and could be worth much more than $18 but I would let another owner worry about Manny next season unless you can get him late or real cheap.
Where does that leave Manny?
We listed Abreu in the designated hitter spot for now. We have the Angels’ starting outfield as Wells, Hunter, and Bourjos. But I’m not sure if the Angels plan to keep Abreu in the OF or DH. If Abreu were on this list, I would probably have ranked him #31 between Brett Gardner and BJ Upton.
Great call on Pie! I didn’t update the depth chart before this post. That moves Scott into an outfield role, thus cutting into Pie’s playing time. I created Pie’s projections without considering the Orioles signed Guerrero, which was an oversight on my part. Baltimore’s outfield will be really crowded with Markakis, Jones, Scott, Pie, and Reimold.
Interesting call on Granderson. I don’t have any strong opinions regarding what he’ll do this season. 20 home runs is a questionable projection considering he hit 24 last year in 136 games. I think the power numbers could easily rise, and depending on where he hits in their lineup, he could also exceed 70 RBI’s. That’s a good comment on his adjustment. It would be huge if Granderson could reduce his strikeout total by about 10-15% without affecting his power or walks. But that’s easier said than done and he’s a solid player regardless.
another guy i really like is Pie, he just doesn’t really have a chance with a crowded Baltimore outfield especially if they end up getting Vlad, then Scott would play more left.
K i’m a big Yankee fan I think Granderson’s end of the year ajustments can help him hit at least .280 and he even has 30 to 35 homerun power in Yankee stadium. Also on Gardner i think he could hit .300 he really only lost his .300 average with a sub-par second half and if he can get more hits expect 50 sb, he is in my mind the best stolen base threat beacause of his stolen base %. I do agree with Swisher’s average dipping again.
wheres bobby?