2011 Top 100 Prospects #5, “Market Value” Comparison

2011 Top 100 Prospects #5, “Market Value” Comparison

In the past few weeks, multiple sources  have released prospect lists.  As prospect watchers know, all lists, including ours, have rankings that take a more or less aggressive stance on certain prospects.  These differences make prospect ranking interesting, but since fantasy owners rely on the lists to draft prospects, it is important to know which rankings deviate from consensus opinion.

Therefore, instead of updating our rankings, the following shows how each of our current rankings deviates from the prospect’s estimated market value.   In other words, the “+/-” to the right of the player’s name denotes whether the player’s estimated market value is higher or lower than our current ranking. Creating “estimated market value” is an inexact science, but we used a points-based system incorporating multiple sources (15-20) ranging from major publications, message boards, community lists, and even several lists received from readers via email.  We thought this was a good way to keep our rankings original while promoting our primary goal, which is helping owners make the best possible picks.

1.  Bryce Harper—OF, Nationals
2.  Mike Trout—OF, Angels
3.  Domonic Brown—OF, Phillies (-1)
4.  Jeremy Hellickson—P, Rays (-1)
5.  Aroldis Chapman—P, Reds (-4)
6.  Julio Teheran—P, Braves
7.  Jesus Montero—C, Yankees (+4)
8.  Dustin Ackley—2B, Mariners
9.  Mike Moustakas— 3B, Royals (-1)
10.  Eric Hosmer—1B, Royals (+3)
11.  Desmond Jennings—OF, Rays (-5)
12.  Michael Pineda—P, Mariners (-6)
13.  Brandon Belt—1B, Giants (-8)
14.  Kyle Drabek—P, Blue Jays (-5)
15.  Wil Myers—C, Royals (+4)
16.  Matt Moore—P, Rays (+3)
17.  Jameson Taillon—P, Pirates (+2)
18.  Freddie Freeman—1B, Braves (+4)
19.  Zach Britton—P, Orioles (+2)
20. Jarrod Parker—P, Diamondbacks (-7)
21.  Mike Minor—P, Braves (-9)
22.  Lonnie Chisenhall—3B, Indians (-3)
23.  Manny Machado—SS, Orioles (+3)
24.  Jacob Turner— P, Tigers (+2)
25.  Brett Jackson—OF, Cubs (-16)
26.  Grant Green—SS, Athletics (-25)
27.  Jordan Lyles—P, Astros (-7)
28.  Mike Montgomery—P, Royals (+5)
29.  Shelby Miller—P, Cardinals (+17)
30.  Kyle Gibson—P, Twins (+2)
31.  Nick Franklin—SS, Mariners (-12)
32.  Jennry Mejia—P, Mets (-18)
33.  Brett Lawrie—2B, Blue Jays
34.  Martin Perez—P, Rangers (+10)
35.  Wilin Rosario—C, Rockies (-2)
36.  Chris Carter—1B/OF, Athletics (-21)
37.  John Lamb—P, Royals (+11)
38.  Miguel Sano—3B, Twins (-21)
39.  Jonathan Singleton—1B, Phillies (+8)
40.  Aaron Hicks—OF, Twins (+8)
41.  Simon Castro— P, Padres (-6)
42.  Jarred Cosart—P, Phillies (-26)
43.  Chris Sale—P, White Sox (+14)
44.  Manny Banuelos—P, Yankees (+5)
45.  Dee Gordon—SS, Dodgers (-4)
46.  Chris Archer—P, Cubs (+1)
47.  Tyler Matzek—P, Rockies (+9)
48.  Alex White—P, Indians (-4)
49.  Devin Mesoraco—C, Reds (+7)
50.  Jason Kipnis—2B, Indians (+6)
51.  Randall Delgado—P, Braves (+16)
52.  Michael Choice—OF, Athletics (-36)
53.  Tanner Scheppers—P, Rangers (-21)
54.  Zach Cox—3B, Cardinals (-36)
55.  Yonder Alonso—1B, Reds (+7)
56.  Nick Weglarz—OF, Indians (-31)
57.  Drew Pomeranz—P, Indians (-1)
58.  Billy Hamilton—2B, Reds (+4)
59.  Derek Norris—C, Nationals (+13)
60.  Trayvon Robinson—OF, Dodgers (-19)
61.  Hank Conger—C, Angels (-9)
62.  Danny Duffy—P, Royals (-23)
63.  Jose Iglesias—SS, Red Sox (+10)
64.  Gary Sanchez—C, Yankees (+24)
65.  Trey McNutt—P, Cubs (+1)
66.  Brody Colvin—P, Phillies (-10)
67.  Yasmani Grandal—C, Reds (+6)
68.  Zach Lee—P, Dodgers (-5)
69.  Jurickson Profar—SS, Rangers (+9)
70.  Jean Segura—2B, Angels (+14)
71.  Anthony Rizzo—1B, Padres (+8)
72.  Jerry Sands—OF, Dodgers (-20)
73.  Danny Espinosa—SS, Nationals (-8)
74.  Chris Dwyer—P, Royals (-8)
75.  Jake McGee—P, Rays (-3)
76.  Wilson Ramos— C, Nationals (-29)
77.  Casey Kelly—P, Padres (+41)
78.  Jake Odorizzi—P, Royals (+13)
79.  Anthony Gose—OF, Blue Jays (-a whole lot)
80.  Tony Sanchez—C, Pirates (+25)
81.  Dellin Betances—P, Yankees (+14)
82.  Christian Colon—SS, Royals (-8)
83.  Alexander Colome—P, Rays (-19)
84.  Craig Kimbrel—P, Braves (-12)
85.  JP Arencebia—C, Blue Jays (-4)
86.  Arodys Vizcaino—P, Braves (0)
87.  Tyler Chatwood—P, Angels (-6)
88.  Zach Wheeler—P, Giants (+11)
89.  Josh Sale—OF, Rays (-5)
90.  Wilmer Flores—SS, Mets (+18)
91.  Matt Dominguez—3B, Marlins (+25)
92.  Deck McGuire—P, Blue Jays (-3)
93.  Robbie Erlin—P, Rangers (-25)
94.  Tyler Skaggs—P, Diamondbacks (+10)
95.  Carlos Perez—P, Braves (-a whole lot…made no other lists)
96.  Travis D’Arnaud—C, Blue Jays (+17)
97.  Engel Beltre—OF, Rangers (-21)
98.  Austin Romine— C, Yankees (-18)
99.  Kenley Jansen—P, Dodgers (-20)
100.  Anthony Ranaudo—P, Red Sox (+31)

Who the market would rank: Jaff Decker (71), Nick Castellanos (75), Zach Stewart (80), Nolan Arenado (91), Hak-Ju Lee (97), Matt Harvey (98), and Adeiny Hechavarria (99).

Method:  I decided not to publish the spreadsheet to encourage people to visit the other sites and review the great work others did creating their rankings.  Plus, my spreadsheet wasn’t that great.  On the whole, I think it provides a decent approximation of the average consensus opinion.  But the method itself ended up less effective than anticipated.  Most importantly, when a player completely missed a top 100 list, there is no way too know if the player missed by much.  To compensate, I created a ranking myself based on their number of appearances on other lists.  For example, assume one person listed Dustin Ackley outside the top 100 (nobody did).  I would fill the ranking at 105 because the fact he made every other top 100 indicates he would presumably have been close on the other list.  I was also forced to make a few changes when spreadsheet errors (typos, etc) clearly over-effected the market value.   So it’s important to use caution relying on my definition of market value.

Recommended Sources:  If this list teaches you something, it’s the importance of considering multiple sources when evaluating your picks.  There are many great sources available online, and the best include Keith Law, Project Prospect, Prospect Junkies, and the community list on John Sickels’ site.  But they all contain deviations.  In terms of paid publications, three “must have” sources are the Baseball America Prospect Handbook, “The Prospect Book” by John Sickels, and Project Prospect’s Digital Prospect Guide.  If you enjoy learning about prospects enough to read this site, you should absolutely purchase these books.