We received feedback requesting a prospect list based on fantasy value for only 2011. To be original, we used the following criteria to include certain prospects who “graduated” from traditional lists.
● Hitters: 300 Career AB’s
● Starting Pitchers: 100 Career IP’s
● Relief Pitchers: 50 Career IP’s (no increase b/c 50 is already high)
1. Carlos Santana—C, Indians
2. Logan Morrison—OF, Marlins
3. Jeremy Hellickson—P, Rays
4. Freddie Freeman—1B, Braves
5. Craig Kimbrel—P, Braves
6. Aroldis Chapman—P, Reds
7. Kyle Drabek—P, Blue Jays
8. Domonic Brown—OF, Phillies
9. Chris Sale—P, White Sox
10. Mike Minor—P, Braves
11. Michael Pineda—P, Mariners
12. Mike Moustakas—3B, Royals
13. Brent Morel—3B, White Sox
14. Eric Young, Jr.—2B. Rockies
15. Mitch Moreland—1B, Rangers
16. Danny Espinoza—2B, Nationals
17. Tyuoshi Nishioka—SS, Twins
18. Danny Valencia—3B, Twins
19. Jesus Montero—C, Yankees
20. Brandon Belt—1B, Giants
21. Desmond Jennings—OF, Rays
22. Dustin Ackley—2B, Mariners
23. Wilson Ramos—C, Nationals
24. JP Arencebia—C, Blue Jays
25. Brett Wallace—1B, Astros
26. Matt Dominguez—3B, Marlins
27. Jake McGee—P, Rays
28. Kila Kia’hue—1B, Royals
29. Ivan Nova—P, Yankees
30. Tanner Scheppers—P, Rangers
31. Ryan Kalish—OF, Red Sox
32. Cory Luebke—P, Padres
33. Jennry Mejia—P, Mets
34. Chris Carter—1B/OF, Athletics
35. Lorenzo Cain—OF, Royals
36. Jarrod Parker—P, Diamondbacks
37. Brett Jackson—OF, Cubs
38. Kyle Gibson—P, Twins
39. Michael Brantley—OF, Indians
40. Zach Britton—P, Orioles
41. Jordan Lyles—P, Astros
42. Anthony Rizzo—1B, Padres
43. Yonder Alonso—1B, Reds
44. Mat Gamel—3B, Brewers
45. Kenley Jansen—P, Dodgers
46. Peter Bourjos—OF, Angels
47. Jordan Walden—P, Angels
48. Jonathan LuCroy—C, Brewers
49. Wilin Rosario—C, Rockies
50. Lonnie Chisenhall—3B, Indians
51. Zach Stewart—P, Blue Jays
52. Nick Weglarz—OF, Indians
53. Andrew Cashner—P, Cubs
54. Brandon Beachy—P, Braves
55. Brandon Allen—1B, Diamondbacks
56. Yunesky Maya—P, Nationals
57. Ben Revere—OF, Twins
58. Chris Heisey—OF, Reds
59. Jason Kipnis—2B, Indians
60. Andrew Oliver—P, Tigers
61. Simon Castro—P, Padres
62. Josh Thole—C, Mets
63. Andrew Brackman—P, Yankees
64. Juan Francisco—3B, Reds
65. Hank Conger—C, Angels
66. Fernando Martinez—OF, Mets
67. Michael Kirkman—P, Rangers
68. John Jay—OF, Cardinals
69. Mark Rogers—P, Brewers
70. Alex White—P, Indians
71. Yamaico Navarro—2B, Red Sox
72. Jerry Sands—OF, Dodgers
73. Felix Doubront—P, Red Sox
74. Dee Gordon—SS, Dodgers
75. Lucas Duda—OF, Mets
76. Josh Reddick—OF, Red Sox
77. Jeremy Jeffress—P, Royals
78. Carlos Carrasco—P, Indians
79. Michael Taylor—OF, Athletics
80. Devin Mesoraco—C, Reds
81. Dayan Viciedo—1B, White Sox
82. Scott Cousins—OF, Marlins
83. Tyler Chatwood—P, Angels
84. Josh Bell—3B, Orioles
85. Jason Donald—2B, Indians
86. Barry Enright—P, Diamondbacks
87. Josh Lueke—P, Mariners
88. Eric Hosmer—1B, Royals
89. Juan Miranda—1B, Diamondbacks
90. Brad Emaus—2B, Mets
91. Darwin Barney—2B, Cubs
92. Robinson Chirinos—C, Rays
93. Gregori Infante—P, White Sox
94. Tyson Ross—P, Athletics
95. Jose Iglesias—SS, Red Sox
96. Chris Archer—P, Rays
97. Mike Trout—OF, Angels
98. Zach Cozart—SS, Reds
99. Brett Lawrie—3B, Blue Jays
100. Tim Collins—P, Royals
I sorta agree it will be a tough situation for Ramos. Derek Norris will arrive in a couple of years, and if Jesus Flores is healthy, he could provide some competition too. My prediction is based on 400 AB’s for Ramos…gotta think that’ll be tough.
Assuming you can get cheap, Lueke is my favorite bullpen sleeper. He’s got all the talent to be a successful reliever, but once he starts succeeding, there is some concern the pressure will build. It would be miserable being known as “the guy who….” I hope he makes it, and for whatever reason, I think he’ll surprise people. In a league counting holds, there are several other middle relievers worth considering. Besides Doubront, two others from Seattle I like are Fields and Cortes. Plus, I saw an article yesterday from ESPN listing Vance Worley (Phillies) as a sleeper.
If given a sufficient # of at bats, I think Gamel has the talent to be a very good major league hitter. The problem is his defense prevents that from happening. I think it will take an injury forcing him into the lineup or possibly a trade. If he gets an everyday role for 1-2 months, I think he’d develop into a productive major league hitter.
Bradley, I see you like Gamel a lot more than most. Is this just because the major league team might need help at 3B and might push him up for major league ABs? Or do you think he’s still a top prospect?
If you’re in a league with Holds, I wonder if Felix Doubrant (Red Sox) and Josh Lueke (Mariners) might be good FA pickups if you have an open RP spot. I know I’m always looking for guys who can help in Holds and not have to trade for them, since RPs are so fickle. Doubrant might be the best lefty in the Red Sox bullpen – we’ll need to see what they do with him in Spring Training. Lueke, because of the stuff he’s got attached to his name, won’t take over as the Mariners’ “closer of the future” this year, but they still might use him later in high-leverage middle innings. Pitching at Safeco, he’ll help in whip and ERA too. Just two guys I’ll be keeping MY eye on. I bet they start in the minors but come up quick.
Like the list. I’m going to comment further on the Ramos stuff that’s already been brought up. He seems to be in a bad position now – fighting for the backup role in Washington, where Derek Norris is the consensus long-term catcher there. And if Ramos isn’t getting ABs, he’s not a good trade candidate, either. He might be on his way to career-backup land. In a deep league, I’d see if I could trade him for some value soon.
You could easily be right on Lawrie. My thought was Toronto will give him a full season in the minors to figure out his position (3B…maybe OF). If he’s up by July, this ranking is too low b/c he’s a solid prospect.
Long term, I would take Harper. But I like Trout b/c he offers a rare combination of speed, power, and plate discipline. There is some concern based on Trout’s #’s declining slightly in High A and his high BABIP. I’m not too worried b/c Trout should consistently post a high BABIP (SPD, line drives, etc). Long term, I graded Trout the #2 prospect behind Harper, but on the 250 list, I sorta struggled w/ ranking Trout over Anthony Rendon.
I guess I’m higher on Lawrie than most evaluators. The Brewers were very aggressive in pushing Lawrie to double-A, skippin high-A, in his second full season of pro ball, and all he did was lead the Southern League in extra base hits (or come close to it). Lawrie’s spotty defense is well documented, but 36 doubles, 16 triples, 8 homers, 30 sbs as a 20 year old playing in the middle infield. I think Trout has a full season in double-A and Lawrie will start the year in an offensive paradise in Las Vegas.
I’ve definitely taken on the role of Trout hater. I for one look at the Jonathan Mayos and Keith Laws placing Trout ahead of Bryce Harper and shake my head. I think BA will get it right on Wednesday and call Harper the #1 prospect in the sport.
Gun to your head, Harper or Trout?
Trout slugged .434 in 200 abs in the Cal League. He’s an incredible talent, but I think people are putting too much stock in an incredible half a season. He’s an outfielder with average power. Maybe a tick above. And for all the talk about his speed, in the Cal League he was 11 for 17 in sb attempts. Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s the 2nd or 3rd best prospect in the game, but…
Putting Trout over Harper feels like one of those things you wouldn’t want to admit to 5 years down the road.
Good suggestions. I think Lawrie and Trout’s time-tables are pretty close. Lawrie’s ETA depends on the transition to third base. Since the Blue Jays are rebuilding, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them be patient and wait until June ‘2012. Trout is probably also a June ‘2012 arrival, but he has so much upside there is an outside chance he’ll arrive early. Then again, Lawrie is a more developed player, so he could easily see the majors a little bit sooner if he handles 3B well.
Great call on Lucroy v. Ramos. I created the rankings projecting Ramos would be the Nationals’ opening day catcher, but I just saw the Nationals announced Pudge will start. That hurts Ramos’ value. If the Nationals don’t plan to start Ramos and Jesus Flores is reasonably healthy, my guess is Ramos begins the season in AA.
You seem pretty high on Wilson Ramos. I’d have to put LuCroy ahead of Ramos since his abs are guaranteed and Ramos’ aren’t.
I would have Lawrie ahead of a guy like Trout because I think he has a much better chance of seeing the bigs. People tend to ignore/forget the fact that in the Cal League Trout was a little underwhelming. It’s interesting to look at his season compared to Wil Myers who actually played better after his jump to high-A.