Top 250 Prospects Update: June 26, 2011

Top 250 Prospects Update: June 26, 2011

Here is this week’s version of the Top 250 Prospects. Amazing we are at the mid-point of the MILB season!  On Minor League Ball, several posters published mid-season prospect lists which are interesting to read.   The lists are a little more aggressive on the fast risers, but on the whole, it indicates we have done a decent job identifying the fast risers.

I tried something a little different on this post by incorporating charts.  I’ve been keeping track of the players rankings throughout the season, and the trends are interesting to see. After the season, the charts should be helpful because it’ll show how the players ranking progressed throughout the season, and for my purposes, it helps me learn how much specified events should affect a player’s ranking (when I was moving players too quickly, too slowly, etc).   I was 50:50 about putting them here because they possibly add more clutter than help.  Are the charts helpful?  If not, let me know and we can keep them off in the future. 

1. Bryce Harper—OF, Nationals
2. Mike Trout—OF, Angels
3. Michael Pineda—P, Mariners (+1)
4. Jeremy Hellickson—P, Rays
5. Julio Teheran—P, Braves
6. Shelby Miller—P, Cardinals (+5)
7. Dustin Ackley—2B, Mariners
8. Eric Hosmer—1B, Royals (-4)
Hosmer has struggled recently with just two extra base hits in June. 
9. Desmond Jennings—OF, Rays
10. Mike Moustakas— 3B, Royals
11. Zach Britton—P, Orioles
12. Manny Machado—SS, Orioles
13. Domonic Brown—OF, Phillies (-4)
14. Gerrit Cole—P, Pirates
15. Matt Moore—P, Rays
16. Jacob Turner—P, Tigers
17. Jameson Taillon—P, Pirates
18. Brett Lawrie—3B, Blue Jays
19. Jesus Montero—C, Yankees
20. Yu Darvish—P, Japan (+3)
Darvish is having another incredible season in Japan, recently throwing 46 consecutive scoreless innings.
21. Anthony Rendon—3B, Nationals
22. Wil Myers—OF, Royals
23. Freddie Freeman—1B, Braves
24. Dylan Bundy—P, Orioles
25. Mike Minor—P, Braves
26. Martin Perez—P, Rangers
27. Kyle Gibson—P, Twins
28. Jordan Lyles—P, Astros
29. Drew Pomeranz—P, Indians (-1)
30. Anthony Rizzo—1B, Padres
31. Devin Mesoraco—C, Reds (+1)
32. Manny Banuelos—P, Yankees (-2)
33. Brandon Belt—1B, Giants
34. Danny Hultzen—P, Mariners
35. Jake Odorizzi—P, Royals
36. Carlos Martinez—P, Cardinals (+3)
Check out the following chart showing how Martinez’s ranking has skyrocketed this season. 
  Carlos Martinez
37. Jurickson Profar—SS, Rangers
38. Miguel Sano—3B, Twins
39. Lonnie Chisenhall—3B, Indians (-13)
This is an adjustment ranking based on some solid feedback from last week.
40. Bubba Starling—OF, Royals
41. Danny Duffy—P, Royals (+2)
If available, now is a great time to grab Duffy because he has pitched better recently than his ERA shows.
42. Hak-Ju Lee—SS, Rays (-4)
43. Trevor Bauer—P, Diamondbacks (+5)
44. Robbie Erlin—P, Rangers (-3)
45. Jarred Cosart—P, Phillies (-2)
46. Dee Gordon—SS, Dodgers (-5)
47. Brett Jackson—OF, Cubs
48. Yonder Alonso—1B, Reds
49. Randall Delgado—P, Braves
50. Casey Kelly—P, Padres
51. Zach Lee—P, Dodgers
52. Aaron Hicks—OF, Twins (+5)
There are signs Hicks will have a solid second half, specifically improving discipline and more extra base hits. 
53. Dellin Betances—P, Yankees (-8)
54. Tyler Skaggs—P, Diamondbacks (+2)
55. Matt Harvey—P, Mets (+2)
56. Craig Kimbrel—P, Braves (+3)
57. Aroldis Chapman—P, Reds (+2)
58. Nick Franklin—SS, Mariners (+3)
59. Jason Kipnis—2B, Indians
60. Jordan Walden—P, Angels
61. Jarrod Parker—P, Diamondbacks (-8)
62. George Springer—OF, Astros
63. Tyler Chatwood—P, Angels (+1)
Chatwood has pitched well recently, but my concern is 48 k’s to 44 bb’s in 89 innings will lead to problems.
64. Jonathan Singleton—1B, Phillies (+8)
Watch out.  Singleton is heating up w/ several recent multihit games and the SLG% is finally rising.   
65. Yasmani Grandal—C, Reds (+1)
66. Anthony Ranaudo—P, Red Sox
67. Archie Bradley—P, Diamondbacks
68. Taylor Jungmann—P, Brewers (+3)
69. Deck McGuire—P, Blue Jays
70. James Darnell—3B, Padres
71. Wilin Rosario—C, Rockies (-10)
The low BB-rate is become a concern b/c it’ll be hard to succeed when only walking 5-7%.
72. Zach Wheeler—P, Giants
73. Brandon Beachy—P, Braves (+16)
Very solid 11 strikeout performance in his first game back from the disabled list.
74. Nick Castellanos—3B, Tigers (+14)
Castellanos is on fire recording multiple hits in 11 of his last 12 games.
75. Garrett Richards—P, Angels (+30)
76. Mike Montgomery—P, Royals (-20)
Montgomery’s ERA is now above 7.50 after he surrendered 10 ER’s his last start.    Drop him more?
77. Rubby De La Rosa—P, Dodgers (-17)
De La Rosa has struggled since moving to the rotation…gotta think he’ll switch to the pen or go to AAA.
78. Leonys Martin—OF, Rangers
79. Paul Goldschmidt—1B, Diamondbacks (+9)
80. Matt Barnes—P, Red Sox (-9)
81. Arodys Vizcaino—P, Braves (+4)
82. Travis D’Arnaud—C, Blue Jays (-3)
83. Alexander Colome—P, Rays
84. Gary Sanchez—C, Yankees
85. Derek Norris—C, Nationals (-3)
86. Juan Nicasio—P, Rockies (-3)
87. Grant Green—SS, Athletics (+4)
88. Wilson Ramos— C, Nationals
89. Liam Hendriks—P, Twins (+7)
90. Sonny Gray—P, Athletics (-10)
91. Kyle Drabek—P, Blue Jays (-21)
Drabek is struggling in AAA since the promotion…he’ll hopefully put it together.
92. Matt Dominguez—3B, Marlins (+2)
93. JP Arencibia—C, Blue Jays (-4)
94. Jaff Decker—OF, Padres (+1)
95. Hank Conger—C, Angels (-6)
96. Jean Segura—2B, Angels
97. Danny Espinosa—2B, Nationals (+2)
98. Alex White—P, Indians
99. Zach Cox—3B, Cardinals (-9)
100. Trayvon Robinson—OF, Dodgers (+2)
101. Francisco Lindor—SS, Indians (+13)
102. Brad Peacock—P, Nationals (+20)
103. Tony Sanchez—C, Pirates (-10)
Sanchez has not recorded an extra base hit since May 27th.
104. Brody Colvin—P, Phillies (+2)
105. Oswaldo Arcia—OF, Twins (+8)
106. Jerry Sands—OF, Dodgers
107. Alex Cobb—P, Rays
108. Charlie Blackmon—OF, Rockies
109. Trey McNutt—P, Cubs (-19)
Makes me nervous.  In McNutt’s return from the DL, he was pulled after surrendering 4 runs w/o recording an out. 
110. Jose Altuve—2B Astros (+5)
111. Chris Dwyer—P, Royals (+8)
112. Billy Hamilton—2B/SS, Reds (+6)
113. Zach Stewart—P, Blue Jays (-8)
114. Aaron Crow—P, Royals (-3)
115. Taijuan Walker—P, Mariners (+40)
A bold jump …but agree with the posters on Sickels’ board the potential here is huge.
116. Jed Bradley—P, Brewers
117. Michael Choice—OF, Athletics
118. Nolan Arenado—3B, Rockies (+16)
Absolutely crushing the ball lately…had a huge 6 RBI game this weekend.
119. Nick Weglarz—OF, Indians
120. Josh Sale—OF, Rays
121. Jedd Gyorko—3B, Padres
122. Gary Brown—OF, Giants (-7)
123. Chris Carter—1B/OF, Athletics (+9)
Despite rough first half, Carter could bounce back after getting an MLB promotion which could be permanent.
124. Dayan Viciedo—OF, White Sox (+30)
Based on last week’s feedback.  There are concerns here, but he’s playing well and should arrive soon.
125. Fernando Salas—P, Cardinals (-8)
126. Wilmer Flores—SS, Mets (+9)
I’m cautiously impressed w/ Wilmer’s recent numbers; he’s getting on base and generating a few extra base hits.
127. Christian Colon—SS, Royals (+4)
128. Tim Beckham—SS, Rays (-4)
129. Bryce Brentz—OF, Red Sox (-9)
130. Neil Ramirez—P, Rangers (-13)
131. Ben Revere—OF, Twins (+4)
132. Chris Archer—P, Rays
133. Jake Marisnick—OF, Blue Jays
134. Alexander Torres—P, Rays (+14)
135. Johnny Giavotella—2B, Royals (+9)
Giavotella is having a terrific month hitting .389 in June…should be called up soon. 
136. Zach Cozart—SS, Reds (+10)
137. Starling Marte—OF, Pirates (+8)
138. Tsuyoshi Nishioka—SS, Twins
139. Reymond Fuentes—OF, Padres (+5)
140. Jemile Weeks—2B, Athletics (+50)
I decided to give Weeks a big jump; he’s a high-upside player who has done well since becoming OAK’s 2B.
141. Carlos Perez—C, Blue Jays
142. Javier Baez—SS, Cubs (+9)
143. Felix Doubront—P, Red Sox
144. Guillermo Pimentel—OF, Mariners (+4)
145. Adrian Salcedo—P, Twins (+12)
146. Keyvious Sampson—P, Padres
147. Austin Romine— C, Yankees
148. Jonathan Schoop—3B, Orioles
149. Jose Iglesias—SS, Red Sox (-15)
Chart showing the drop in Iglesias’ value compared to four SS’s who began the season ranked below him.
Untitled

150. Chris Sale—P, White Sox (-9)
151. Norichika Aoki—OF, Japan
152. Allen Webster—P, Dodgers (-12)
153. John Lamb—P, Royals
154. Alex Meyer—P, Nationals
155. Christian Friedrich—P, Rockies (+30)
Friedrich is a decent buy low option b/c the season numbers don’t show how well he’s pitched after a tough April. 
156. Jeurys Familia—P, Mets (+19)
157. Chad James—P, Marlins (-3)
158. Brad Meyers—P, Nationals (+6)
159. Simon Castro— P, Padres (+2)
160. Anthony Gose—OF, Blue Jays (-5)
161. Michael Taylor—OF, Athletics (+3)
162. Alfredo Despaigne—OF, Cuba
163. Eric Thames—OF, Blue Jays (+11)
164. Jason Knapp—P, Indians
165. Reese Havens—2B, Mets (-2)
166. Joe Wieland—P, Rangers
167. Oscar Taveras—OF, Cardinals
168. Kaleb Cowart—3B, Angels (+7)
The short-season leagues are underway, and to the extent a few games matter, Cowart is off to a great start.
169. Matthew Purke—P, Nationals
170. Mark Trumbo—1B, Angels (+5)
171. Stetson Allie—P, Pirates (-9)
172. Darwin Barney—2B, Cubs (-7)
173. Joe Benson—OF, Twins
174. Kenny Diekroeger—INF, Stanford Univ (2012)
175. Tanner Scheppers—P, Rangers (+27)
Scheppers returned to action this week in AA; what’s encouraging were reports about his FB being in the mid-90’s.
176. AJ Cole—P, Nationals
177. Luis Heredia—P, Pirates (-3)
178. Jackie Bradley, Jr—OF, Red Sox (-7)
179. Enny Romero—P, Rays
180. Juan Francisco—3B, Reds
181. Jose Fernandez—P, Marlins
182. Nathan Eovaldi—P, Dodgers (+30)
183. Adeiny Hechavarria—SS, Blue Jays
184. Yamaico Navarro—2B, Red Sox
185. Jennry Mejia—P, Mets
186. Tyson Ross—P, Athletics
187. Joshua Bell—OF, Pirates
188. Daniel Norris—P, Blue Jays
189. Matt Szczur—OF, Cubs (+20)
190. Thomas Neal—OF, Giants (-11)
191. Eric Surkamp—P, Giants (+30)
192. Jake McGee—P, Rays
193. Taylor Guerrieri—P, Rays
194. Hisashi Iwakuma—P, Japan
195. Mikie Mahtook—OF, Rays
196. Lance McCullers, Jr —P/INF, HS (Fla) (2012)
197. Chris Marrero—1B, Nationals (+5)
198. Kyle Parker—OF, Rockies
199. Robbie Ross—P, Rangers
200. Chad Bettis—P, Rockies
201. Josh Vitters—3B, Cubs
202. Tim Wheeler—OF, Rockies
203. Edward Salcedo—SS, Braves (-6)
204. Chris Owings—SS, Diamondbacks (-7)
205. Blake Swihart—C, Red Sox
206. Barrett Loux—P, Rangers (+7)
207. Mark Appel—P, Stanford Univ. (2012)
208. LJ Hoes—2B, Orioles (+3)
209. Karsten Whitson—P, Univ of Florida (2013) (-30)
Adjustment ranking.  Whitson had a good season and would be higher if he signed. But can’t have him that far above the rest of the 2013 class.
210. Delino Deshields—2B, Astros (-40)
Frustrating to move him down, but DeShields is really struggling in June hitting just .112.
211. David Perez—P, Rangers (+15)
212. Blake Tekotte—OF, Padres
213. Francisco Peguero—OF, Giants
214. Drew Vettleson—OF, Rays
215. Brad Boxberger—P, Reds (+9)
216. Will Middlebrooks—3B, Red Sox
217. Yulieski Gourriel—3B, Cuba
218. Donavan Tate—OF, Padres (-34)
Another adjustment ranking.  Questionable because Tate’s back playing in the rookie leagues and doing ok so far.
219. Matt Lipka—SS, Braves (-30)
220. Corey Spangenberg—3B, Padres
221. Justin O’Connor—C, Rays
222. Collin Cowgill—OF, Diamondbacks (+10)
223. Dave Sappelt—OF, Reds
224. Drew Hutchison—P, Blue Jays (new)
Hutchison has been awesome recently, not surrendering a single ER in June. 
225. Brandon Nimmo—OF, Mets
226. Matthew Davidson—3B, Diamondbacks
227. CJ Cron—1B, Angels
228. Adrian Cardenas—3B, Athletics (new)
A veteran of prospect lists, Cardenas is having a good season in AAA and should reach Oakland soon. 
229. Nick Williams—OF, HS (Tex) (2012)
230. Kirk Nieuwenhuis—OF, Mets (-20)
231. Andy Oliver—P, Tigers (-27)
232. Tyler Anderson—P, Rockies (new)
Anderson is a solid college pitcher from Oregon selected in the first round of this year’s draft.
233. Todd Frazier—OF, Reds (-18)
234. Drake Britton—P, Red Sox (-20)
235. Fernando Martinez—OF, Mets
236. Ivan Nova—P, Yankees (new)
Nova deserves a spot on this list b/c he’s pitched very well recently for the Yankees.
237. Tyrell Jenkins—P, Cardinals
238. Yorman Rodriguez—OF, Reds (+8)
239. Brent Morel—3B, White Sox (-32)
Morel is still the White Sox’s starting 3B, but his OBP is .262 (one walk?) w/ minimal power.    Worth removing?
240. Jose Dariel Abreu—1B, Cuba
241. Yoennis Cespedes—OF, Cuba
242. Brian Goodwin—OF, Nationals
243. Ronald Guzman—OF, Dominican Republic (new)
A speculative addition, but most articles rate Guzman the #1 player in this year’s international crop.
244. Mike Olt—3B, Rangers
245. Christian Yelich—OF, Marlins
246. Edinson Rincon—3B, Padres (new)
Yet another Padres third baseman…Rincon is having a great year hitting .336 in A+ at age 20.
247. Robinson Yambati—P, Royals (-40)
Maybe a mistake reading much into a start, but 5 ER in 1/3 IP is discouraging considering I don’t know much.
248. Trevor Reckling—P, Angels
249. Trevor May—P, Phillies (new)
50/50 about these last two spots…been slow following May but he is apparently showing signs of improvement.
250. Matt Adams—1B, Cardinals (new)
Was going to list Ovando, but decided to go w/ one of our suggestions and listed Adams.  Locked in at 1B, but posting big #’s.

Removed: Hector Noesi—P, Yankees (#211), Casey Crosby—P, Tigers (#227), Charlie Furbush—P, Tigers (#228), Stolmy Pimentel—P, Red Sox (#232), Kolbrin Vitek—3B, Red Sox (#233), Slade Heathcott—OF, Yankees (#238), Jeremy Jeffress—P, Royals (#239), Tyler Matzek—P, Rockies (#250)