Top 250 Prospects Update: August 21, 2011

Top 250 Prospects Update: August 21, 2011

Here is this week’s update to the Top 250 Prospect List. The signing deadline has passed, and surprisingly, all the 2011 draftees we listed signed pro contracts. I gave most of the HS draftees a jump because, needless to say, their value increases after officially signing a pro contract.  It is worth mentioning—at this point—I think we’re valuing many of the “non-elite” first rounders a little bit low. As we go through the rankings in the off-season, we’ll probably end up valuing several players (i.e., Brandon Nimmo, CJ Cron, etc) higher than many of the struggling prospects. We’ll continue updating throughout the second half of the season, and as always, feedback is appreciated.

1. Bryce Harper—OF, Nationals
2. Mike Trout—OF, Angels
3. Matt Moore—P, Rays
4. Jeremy Hellickson—P, Rays
5. Julio Teheran—P, Braves
6. Freddie Freeman—1B, Braves
7. Michael Pineda—P, Mariners (-3)
8. Shelby Miller—P, Cardinals (-3)
The bad start is not a huge concern…decided Freeman should rank higher than Pineda/Miller/Hosmer. 
9. Eric Hosmer—1B, Royals (-3)
Last night’s 3B was Hosmer’s first extra base hit since August 2.
10. Desmond Jennings—OF, Rays
11. Brett Lawrie—3B, Blue Jays (+1)
12. Dustin Ackley—2B, Mariners
13. Gerrit Cole—P, Pirates
14. Yu Darvish—P, Japan
15. Jurickson Profar—SS, Rangers (+1)
16. Anthony Rendon—3B, Nationals
17. Manny Machado—SS, Orioles (-3)
18. Dylan Bundy—P, Orioles
19. Jacob Turner—P, Tigers (-4)
20. Jesus Montero—C, Yankees (-4)
Another adjustment ranking placing Rendon/Profar ahead of Turner/Montero. 
21. Tyler Skaggs—P, Diamondbacks (+1)
22. Devin Mesoraco—C, Reds
23. Trevor Bauer—P, Diamondbacks
24. Danny Hultzen—P, Mariners (+3)
25. Martin Perez—P, Rangers (-1)
26. Manny Banuelos—P, Yankees
27. Bubba Starling—OF, Royals (+2)
28. Jameson Taillon—P, Pirates (-0)
Hard player to grade…numbers are not great, but seems smart to be patient. 
29. Drew Pomeranz—P, Rockies (+4)
30. Robbie Erlin—P, Padres
31. Aroldis Chapman—P, Reds (+3)
Before last night, Chapman had not surrendered an ER since July 15.  
32. Carlos Martinez—P, Cardinals
33. Yonder Alonso—1B, Reds
34. Craig Kimbrel—P, Braves (+3)
Amazing Kimbrel has not surrendered an ER since June 11. 
35. Miguel Sano—3B, Twins (+2)
36. Brandon Belt—1B/OF, Giants
37. Jason Kipnis—2B, Indians
38. Randall Delgado—P, Braves (+3)
39. Brett Jackson—OF, Cubs (+1)
Jackson’s recent numbers are impressive, but the rising k-rate is a moderate concern. 
40. Mike Minor—P, Braves (+6)
41. Jordan Lyles—P, Astros (-13)
42. Domonic Brown—OF, Phillies (-15)
43. Arodys Vizcaino—P, Braves
44. Taijuan Walker—P, Mariners (+2)
Walker has surrendered just 1 ER his past three starts.
45. Jake Odorizzi—P, Royals (+1)
46. Jarrod Parker—P, Diamondbacks (+1)
47. Mike Moustakas— 3B, Royals (-5)
48. Travis D’Arnaud—C, Blue Jays (+1)
49. Leonys Martin—OF, Rangers
50. Jordan Walden—P, Angels
51. Lonnie Chisenhall—3B, Indians (-8)
52. Brandon Beachy—P, Braves
53. Wil Myers—OF, Royals (+3)
Impressive 8 game hitting streak…perhaps Myers is starting to come around. 
54. Dee Gordon—SS, Dodgers
55. Matt Harvey—P, Mets
56. Dellin Betances—P, Yankees (+3)
Excellent AAA debut w/ 8 k’s and 0 BB’s. 
57. Anthony Rizzo—1B, Padres (+1)
58. Zach Britton—P, Orioles (-7)
59. Hak-Ju Lee—SS, Rays (-1)
60. Nick Franklin—SS, Mariners (+3)
Franklin posted solid numbers in his first game back from the DL. 
61. Zach Lee—P, Dodgers
62. Archie Bradley—P, Diamondbacks (+2)
63. Danny Duffy—P, Royals (-0)
64. Zach Wheeler—P, Mets
65. George Springer—OF, Astros (+3)
66. Jonathan Singleton—1B, Astros (+3)
Singleton’s HR last night continued 11 game hitting streak. 
67. Jarred Cosart—P, Astros (+2)
68. Danny Espinosa—2B, Nationals
69. Zach Cox—3B, Cardinals
70. Nolan Arenado—3B, Rockies (+4)
71. Casey Kelly—P, Padres
72. Paul Goldschmidt—1B, Diamondbacks (+2)
Interesting start…hitting for power but Goldschmidt’s k rate is really high.
73. Deck McGuire—P, Blue Jays (-1)
74. Mike Montgomery—P, Royals
75. Yasmani Grandal—C, Reds (+1)
76. Taylor Jungmann—P, Brewers (+3)
77. AJ Cole—P, Nationals (+6)
78. Michael Choice—OF, Athletics (-6)
79. Joe Wieland—P, Padres
80. Gary Brown—OF, Giants (+6)
81. James Darnell—3B, Padres
82. Francisco Lindor—SS, Indians (+4)
83. Jose Altuve—2B, Astros (+4)
84. Brad Peacock—P, Nationals (+4)
Despite a few extra BB’s, Peacock posted an impressive one hit start Thursday night.
85. Oswaldo Arcia—OF, Twins
86. Garrett Richards—P, Angels (-2)
87. Sonny Gray—P, Athletics (+4)
88. Anthony Ranaudo—P, Red Sox (+1)
89. Nick Castellanos—3B, Tigers (+0)
Castellanos is tough to grade…would like to see higher power totals given the k:bb rate is not great. 
90. Wilson Ramos— C, Nationals
91. Alexander Colome—P, Rays (+5)
Colome has posted terrific numbers this month, but the 0.90 ERA in August is helped by the .135 BABIP. 
92. Wilin Rosario—C, Rockies (+0)
93. Aaron Hicks—OF, Twins (-5)
Struggling…Hicks always shows just enough to convince me being patient makes sense. 
94. Alex Cobb—P, Rays
95. Trevor May—P, Phillies (+5)
96. Matt Barnes—P, Red Sox (+4)
97. Tyler Chatwood—P, Angels
98. Jake Marisnick—OF, Blue Jays (+1)
99. Liam Hendriks—P, Twins (-12)
Hendriks was shelled in his last two starts in AAA. 
100. Yoennis Cespedes—OF, Cuba
101. Zach Stewart—P, White Sox
102. Trayvon Robinson—OF, Mariners (-15)
103. Jean Segura—2B, Angels
104. Vance Worley—P, Phillies (+5)
105. Billy Hamilton—2B/SS, Reds (+3)
Beyond the SB’s, one thing I like about Hamilton is he’s made slow improvements in terms of strikeouts, etc. 
106. Jemile Weeks—2B, Athletics (-1)
107. Alex White—P, Rockies (+6)
108. Will Middlebrooks—3B, Red Sox (+6)
Middlebrooks’ ISO in July/August is .270…would like more BB’s but a great season overall.   
109. Nathan Eovaldi—P, Dodgers (+20)
110. Jedd Gyorko—3B, Padres
111. Christian Yelich—OF, Marlins
112. Kyle Drabek—P, Blue Jays (-10)
Will hopefully improve, but the 48:52 k to bb rate in AAA is not encouraging. 
113. Johnny Giavotella—2B, Royals
114. Drew Hutchison—P, Blue Jays (+7)
115. Keyvious Sampson—P, Padres (+8)
Looking game-to-game, Hutchinson and Sampson have both pitched even better when you consider their ERA’s would be insanely low minus 1 or 2 really bad starts.
116. Mark Trumbo—1B, Angels (+8)
117. Matt Dominguez—3B, Marlins
118. Allen Webster—P, Dodgers (-8)
119. Alexander Torres—P, Rays (+5)
120. Josh Reddick—OF, Red Sox (-13)
Reddick’s numbers are down the past few days…probably jumped him a little aggressively. 
121. Bryce Brentz—OF, Red Sox (+5)
122. Joshua Bell—OF, Pirates (+69)
Signing is bad news for the ‘horns, but Bell is surefire top 100 prospect next year. 
123. Kyle Gibson—P, Twins (-9)
124. Gary Sanchez—C, Yankees
125. Jed Bradley—P, Brewers (+4)
126. Chris Sale—P, White Sox (+25)
127. Chris Archer—P, Rays (+4)
Numbers keep improving…concern is the improvement is not connected to BB totals dropping.    
128. James Paxton—P, Mariners (+13)
129. Fernando Salas—P, Cardinals
130. Cheslor Cuthbert—3B, Royals (-5) 
Hitting .136 in August…solid prospect but were mid-year rankings partially due to him playing well at the right time? 
131. Eric Thames—OF, Blue Jays (-2)
132. Henderson Alvarez—P, Blue Jays (+4)
133. Javier Baez—SS, Cubs (+10)
134. Zach Cozart—SS, Reds
135. Jonathan Schoop—2B, Orioles (+18)
Schoop has caught fire in August, hitting .382 w/ 4 HR’s. 
136. Kaleb Cowart—3B, Angels
137. Tyrell Jenkins—P, Cardinals
138. Anthony Gose—OF, Blue Jays (+1)
139. Dayan Viciedo—OF, White Sox (-0)
Numbers have been down since July, but cannot demote him b/c I’m impressed by the improved plate discipline. 
140. Starling Marte—OF, Pirates (+6)
141. Oscar Taveras—OF, Cardinals
142. Christian Colon—SS, Royals
143. Darwin Barney—2B, Cubs (+10)
144. Trey McNutt—P, Cubs (+3)
145. Eric Surkamp—P, Giants (+3)
146. Jeurys Familia—P, Mets (+14)
In his last two starts, Familia has surrendered 0 ER’s and 3 hits. 
147. Ivan Nova—P, Yankees (+8)
148. JP Arencibia—C, Blue Jays (-8)
149. Derek Norris—C, Nationals (-3)
150. Chad Bettis—P, Rockies (+5)
151. Jerry Sands—OF, Dodgers (-10)
Sands has barely hit .200 since July…but the power #’s are solid and the low BA is partially bad luck. 
152. Ben Revere—OF, Twins
153. Tim Wheeler—OF, Rockies
154. Grant Green—OF, Athletics (+1)
155. Tim Beckham—SS, Rays
156. Reymond Fuentes—OF, Padres (-7)
157. Kolten Wong—2B, Cardinals
158. Matt Szczur—OF, Cubs
159. Brody Colvin—P, Phillies (-19)
It’s a concern Colvin’s strikeout rates have really dropped this season. 
160. Christian Friedrich—P, Rockies (-3)
161. Matthew Purke—P, Nationals (+40)
It’s good to see Purke signed…if healthy, his value should increase at least 20-30 more spots. 
162. Wilmer Flores—SS, Mets
163. Chad James—P, Marlins (-12)
164. Aaron Crow—P, Royals (-20)
Not pitching terribly, but my concern is the BB totals have increased and he’s in the bullpen. 
165. Juan Nicasio—P, Rockies
166. Reese Havens—2B, Mets (+8)
167. Jaff Decker—OF, Padres
168. Daniel Norris—P, Blue Jays (+40)
Despite not getting Beede, Toronto got a first round quality HS pitcher in Norris. 
169. Luis Heredia—P, Pirates (+10)
170. Nestor Molina—P, Blue Jays (+55)
Molina has been dominant since the promotion to AA w/ 11 IP’s, 17 k’s, 1 BB, and 1 ER. 
171. Chris Dwyer—P, Royals
172. Robbie Ross—P, Rangers
173. Michael Taylor—OF, Athletics (-14)
After a somewhat productive start to the month, Taylor went into an 0-19 slump.
174. Felix Doubront—P, Red Sox
175. Corey Spangenberg—2B, Padres (+25)
Spangenberg is showing July are not a concern by recording multiple hits in 5 of 6 games. 
176. Guillermo Pimentel—OF, Mariners (-7)
177. Barrett Loux—P, Rangers (-10)
178. Simon Castro— P, Padres (+5)
179. Tyler Thornburg—P, Brewers (+12)
180. Hank Conger—C, Angels
181. Norichika Aoki—OF, Japan
182. Chris Carter—1B/OF, Athletics
183. Alex Meyer—P, Nationals (+10)
184. Juan Francisco—3B, Reds (+12)
Francisco has hit in 17/18 games since returning from the DL…like him at this value. 
185. Rubby De La Rosa—P, Dodgers (-30)
186. Alfredo Despaigne—OF, Cuba
187. JD Martinez—OF, Astros (+15)
188. John Lamb—P, Royals
189. Tony Sanchez—C, Pirates (-20)
190. Brandon Nimmo—OF, Mets (+20)
Think you can argue we’re valuing Nimmo too low…high upside but pretty speculative.   
191. Lance McCullers, Jr —P/INF, HS (Fla) (2012)
192. Kyle Parker—OF, Rockies
193. Adrian Salcedo—P, Twins (-20)
Salcedo has pitched well since moving to bullpen, but if the move is permanent, his fantasy value plummets. 
194. Austin Romine— C, Yankees
195. Charlie Blackmon—OF, Rockies
196. Lucas Duda—OF, Mets (+4)
197. Wily Peralta—P, Brewers (+50)
Aggressive promotion, but Peralta has been great the entire second half…especially since the AAA promotion. 
198. LJ Hoes—OF, Orioles
199. Neil Ramirez—P, Rangers (-7)
200. Jose Fernandez—P, Marlins (+14)
201. Carlos Perez—C, Blue Jays (-20)
Perez is in an 0-15 slump, the .135 BA in August is really discouraging since he looked better in July. 
202. Dillon Gee—P, Mets (+16)
203. Jason Knapp—P, Indians
204. Enny Romero—P, Rays (+9)
0 ER’s and 20 k’s his last 10 IP’s…value will skyrocket if he becomes more consistent. 
205. Taylor Guerrieri—P, Rays (+15)
206. Jose Iglesias—SS, Red Sox
207. Joe Benson—OF, Twins
208. Josh Sale—OF, Rays (-40)
Tough to read too much into rookie ball, but not thrilled Sale is hitting below .200. 
209. Kenny Diekroeger—INF, Stanford Univ. (2012)
210. Josh Vitters—3B,
211. Tsuyoshi Nishioka—SS, Twins
212. David Holmberg—P, Diamondbacks (-5)
Holmberg’s numbers have been down since promotion to A+…partially caused by increasing BB totals.    
213. Tyler Matzek—P, Rockies
214. Blake Swihart—C, Red Sox (+10)
215. Josh Collmenter—P, Diamondbacks
216. Jackie Bradley, Jr—OF, Red Sox
217. Drew Vettleson—OF, Rays
218. Mason Williams—OF, Yankees
219. Mikie Mahtook—OF, Rays (+4)
220. Jennry Mejia—P, Mets
221. Edward Salcedo—SS, Braves (-19)
222. Rymer Liriano—OF, Padres (+15)
223. Stetson Allie—P, Pirates
224. Hisashi Iwakuma—P, Japan
225. Brian Goodwin—OF, Nationals (+20)
High-upside OF prospect received $3 million from the Nationals. 
226. Chris Marrero—1B, Nationals
227. Mark Appel—P, Stanford Univ. (2012)
228. Ryan Lavarnway—C, Red Sox (+10)
229. CJ Cron—1B, Angels
230. Yorman Rodriguez—OF, Reds (-10)
231. Noah Snydergaard—P, Blue Jays (+14)
232. Xander Boagerts—SS, Red Sox (new)
Young SS has posted impressive power numbers and signs point to his BA increasing. 
233. Nomar Mazara—OF, Rangers
234. Ronald Torreyes—2B, Reds
235. Donavan Tate—OF, Padres
236. Yamaico Navarro—SS, Royals (-20)
237. Blake Tekotte—OF, Padres
238. Matthew Davidson—3B, Diamondbacks
239. Collin Cowgill—OF, Diamondbacks (-30)
.238 BA since the promotion is a concern considering it might be tough getting another shot. 
240. Nick Williams—OF, HS (Tex) (2012)
241. Tyler Anderson—P, Rockies
242. Cody Buckel—P, Rangers
243. Joe Ross—P, Padres (new)
2011 first rounder received a $2.75 million bonus from the Padres.
244. Todd Frazier—OF, Reds
245. Francisco Martinez—3B, Mariners (-12)
246. Brandon Jacobs—OF, Red Sox
247. Ronald Guzman—OF, Rangers
248. Elier Hernandez—OF, Royals
249. Matt Adams—1B, Cardinals
250. Adeiny Hechavarria—SS, Blue Jays (new)
Only a few games, but worth mentioning Hech is posting great numbers since AAA promotion.

Removed: Delino DeShields—2B, Astros (#222), Tyson Ross—P, Athletics (#233), Nick Weglarz—OF, Indians (#234)

Also considered: Brad Boxberger (P, Reds), Ryan Brett (2B, Rays), Drake Britton (P, Red Sox), Adrian Cardenas (3B, Athletics), Adonis Cardona (P, Blue Jays), Phillips Castillo (SS, Mariners), Garin Cecchini (3B, Red Sox), Pat Corbin (P, Diamondbacks), Delino Deshields (2B, Astros), Alex Liddi (3B/SS, Mariners), Jake McGee (P, Rays), Brent Morel (3B, White Sox), Thomas Neal (OF, Giants), Kirk Nieuwenhuis (OF, Mets), Justin O’Conner (C, Rays), Ariel Ovando (OF, Astros), Chris Owings (SS, Diamondbacks), Joe Panik (SS, Giants), Esteilon Peguero (SS, Mariners), David Perez (P, Rangers), Edinson Rincon (3B, Padres), Tanner Scheppers (P, Rangers), Robert Stephenson (P, Reds), Alfredo Silverio (OF, Dodgers), Jake Thompson (P, Rays), Sebastian Valle (C, Phillies), Jonathan Villar (SS, Astros), Kyle Weiland (P, Red Sox).