Here is this week’s update to the Top 250 Prospect List. Amazing the milb regular season is officially over! I think this is our last weekly update w/ the regular season complete, but we will publish one more update following the end of the major league season. In the next few weeks, I will finish our mid-season reports. Plus, the next few weeks are a good opportunity to discuss adjustments to the rankings going into the off-season rankings. As always, feedback is always appreciated so let us know which players are ranked too high and too low.
I also wanted to send a sincere thanks to all of the people who provided feedback during the season! Talking prospects all season has been a blast, and without the feedback, the updated lists would not have been possible. It is really appreciated and I look forward to more prospect discussion during the off-season!
1. Bryce Harper—OF, Nationals
2. Mike Trout—OF, Angels
3. Matt Moore—P, Rays
4. Jeremy Hellickson—P, Rays
5. Eric Hosmer—1B, Royals (+1)
Hosmer played extremely well the past few weeks; went ahead and ranked him ahead of Freeman.
6. Freddie Freeman—1B, Braves
7. Desmond Jennings—OF, Rays
8. Julio Teheran—P, Braves (-4)
9. Shelby Miller—P, Cardinals (+1)
Miller was terrific Friday, throwing 8 shutout innings w/ 9 k’s and 2 BB’s.
10. Brett Lawrie—3B, Blue Jays (+1)
11. Michael Pineda—P, Mariners (-3)
12. Dustin Ackley—2B, Mariners
13. Gerrit Cole—P, Pirates
14. Jurickson Profar—SS, Rangers
15. Yu Darvish—P, Japan
16. Anthony Rendon—3B, Nationals
17. Jesus Montero—C, Yankees (+1)
18. Tyler Skaggs—P, Diamondbacks (+2)
19. Manny Machado—SS, Orioles
20. Dylan Bundy—P, Orioles
21. Devin Mesoraco—C, Reds
22. Danny Hultzen—P, Mariners
23. Jameson Taillon—P, Pirates
24. Bubba Starling—OF, Royals
25. Robbie Erlin—P, Padres (+3)
26. Craig Kimbrel—P, Braves (+4)
Kimbrel has not allowed an ER in his last 34 appearances.
27. Jacob Turner—P, Tigers (-5)
28. Drew Pomeranz—P, Rockies
29. Trevor Bauer—P, Diamondbacks (-8)
Ouch. After several dominant starts in AA, Bauer surrendered 10 ER’s Tuesday.
30. Miguel Sano—3B, Twins (+2)
31. Aroldis Chapman—P, Reds
32. Yonder Alonso—1B/OF, Reds (+1)
33. Martin Perez—P, Rangers (-3)
34. Manny Banuelos—P, Yankees (-9)
35. Mike Minor—P, Braves (+4)
36. Jason Kipnis—2B, Indians
37. Brett Jackson—OF, Cubs
38. Carlos Martinez—P, Cardinals (-5)
After terrific start, Martinez’s 5.28 ERA since the promotion to A+ makes him difficult to rank.
39. Randall Delgado—P, Braves
40. Brandon Belt—1B/OF, Giants (-6)
41. Taijuan Walker—P, Mariners
42. Brandon Beachy—P, Braves (+4)
43. Travis D’Arnaud—C, Blue Jays (+3)
44. Mike Moustakas— 3B, Royals
45. Domonic Brown—OF, Phillies
46. Zach Britton—P, Orioles (+6)
After a rough stretch, Britton has come on strong lately with four consecutive quality starts.
47. Jarrod Parker—P, Diamondbacks
48. Arodys Vizcaino—P, Braves (-4)
49. Jake Odorizzi—P, Royals (+1)
50. Jordan Lyles—P, Astros (-6)
51. Leonys Martin—OF, Rangers
52. Lonnie Chisenhall—3B, Indians
53. Gary Brown—OF, Giants (+12)
Brown finishes the season hitting .336 w/ 18 HRs and 54 steals.
54. Wil Myers—OF, Royals
55. Zach Wheeler—P, Mets (+3)
56. Dee Gordon—SS, Dodgers
57. Nolan Arenado—3B, Rockies (+10)
Arenado offers one of the best combinations of power and low strikeouts in the minor leagues.
58. Hak-Ju Lee—SS, Rays
59. Matt Harvey—P, Mets (-5)
60. Zach Lee—P, Dodgers (-3)
61. Anthony Rizzo—1B, Padres (-4)
62. Archie Bradley—P, Diamondbacks
63. Jonathan Singleton—1B, Astros (+1)
64. Dellin Betances—P, Yankees (-2)
65. Jordan Walden—P, Angels
66. Paul Goldschmidt—1B, Diamondbacks (+3)
67. Billy Hamilton—2B/SS, Reds (+9)
Impressive…Hamilton reached the 100 stolen base mark.
68. George Springer—OF, Astros
69. Zach Cox—3B, Cardinals (-3)
70. Brad Peacock—P, Nationals (+9)
71. Jarred Cosart—P, Astros (-5)
72. Casey Kelly—P, Padres
73. Deck McGuire—P, Blue Jays
74. Yasmani Grandal—C, Reds
75. Michael Choice—OF, Athletics (+3)
76. Sonny Gray—P, Athletics (+4)
77. Taylor Jungmann—P, Brewers
78. Jean Segura—2B, Angels (+10)
79. Joe Wieland—P, Padres (-2)
80. Nick Franklin—SS, Mariners (-16)
Adjustment ranking…Franklin did not play terrible but ranking was too high.
81. AJ Cole—P, Nationals
82. Christian Yelich—OF, Marlins (+14)
83. Francisco Lindor—SS, Indians
84. Liam Hendriks—P, Twins (+9)
85. Danny Espinosa—2B, Nationals (-5)
86. Jake Marisnick—OF, Blue Jays (+6)
87. Mike Montgomery—P, Royals
88. Oswaldo Arcia—OF, Twins
89. Henderson Alvarez—P, Blue Jays (+37)
Alvarez is showing elite potential surrendering 0 ER’s in consecutive starts.
90. Wilson Ramos— C, Nationals
91. Jose Altuve—2B, Astros (-3)
92. Drew Hutchison—P, Blue Jays (+12)
93. Nathan Eovaldi—P, Dodgers (+5)
94. Ivan Nova—P, Yankees (+39)
We ranked Nova too low all season, as he has been solid in the Yankees rotation.
95. Danny Duffy—P, Royals (-23)
We ranked Duffy too high all season, as his ERA now hovers around 6.
96. Vance Worley—P, Phillies (+3)
97. Wilin Rosario—C, Rockies
98. Garrett Richards—P, Angels (-3)
99. Nick Castellanos—3B, Tigers (-7)
100. Alex Cobb—P, Rays
101. Trevor May—P, Phillies
102. James Paxton—P, Mariners (+8)
103. Alexander Colome—P, Rays (-8)
104. Trayvon Robinson—OF, Mariners
105. Matt Barnes—P, Red Sox
106. Jemile Weeks—2B, Athletics (+3)
107. Jedd Gyorko—3B, Padres (+8)
108. James Darnell—3B, Padres (-20)
109. Dayan Viciedo—OF, White Sox (+9)
110. Mark Trumbo—1B, Angels (+6)
111. Oscar Taveras—OF, Cardinals (+30)
Tavaras finishes the season hitting .386.
112. Yoennis Cespedes—OF, Cuba
113. Chris Sale—P, White Sox
114. Gary Sanchez—C, Yankees (+8)
115. Zach Stewart—P, White Sox (+10)
After two rough performances, Stewart broke out w/ an impressive one hit shutout against MIN.
116. Aaron Hicks—OF, Twins
117. Keyvious Sampson—P, Padres (-2)
118. Tyler Chatwood—P, Angels (-6)
119. Will Middlebrooks—3B, Red Sox
120. Nestor Molina—P, Blue Jays (+20)
Molina posted a 0.41 ERA over 22 innings in AA.
121. Bryce Brentz—OF, Red Sox (+4)
122. Alexander Torres—P, Rays (+6)
123. Chris Archer—P, Rays (+6)
124. Josh Reddick—OF, Red Sox (+6)
125. Alex White—P, Rockies
126. Joshua Bell—OF, Pirates (+7)
127. Eric Thames—OF, Blue Jays (+10)
128. Allen Webster—P, Dodgers (+3)
129. Anthony Gose—OF, Blue Jays (+12)
Hard to rank Gose; great speed and power combination but the 26.2% k rate is too high.
130. Matt Dominguez—3B, Marlins (-10)
131. Starling Marte—OF, Pirates (+7)
132. Anthony Ranaudo—P, Red Sox (-16)
133. Kyle Drabek—P, Blue Jays (-12)
134. Johnny Giavotella—2B, Royals (-8)
135. Jeurys Familia—P, Mets (+12)
136. Eric Surkamp—P, Giants (+1)
137. Chad Bettis—P, Rockies (+12)
138. Jonathan Schoop—2B, Orioles
139. Kolten Wong—2B, Cardinals (+8)
140. Tyrell Jenkins—P, Cardinals
141. Jed Bradley—P, Brewers
142. Javier Baez—SS, Cubs
143. Cheslor Cuthbert—3B, Royals
144. Zach Cozart—SS, Reds
145. Darwin Barney—2B, Cubs
146. Tim Wheeler—OF, Rockies (-2)
147. Corey Spangenberg—2B, Padres (+15)
After hitting just .154 in July after the promotion, Spangenberg hit almost .370 in August/September.
148. Christian Colon—SS, Royals (-4)
149. Cody Buckel—P, Rangers (+10)
150. Matthew Purke—P, Nationals
151. Kaleb Cowart—3B, Angels (-9)
152. Robbie Ross—P, Rangers (+5)
153. Matt Szczur—OF, Cubs (+5)
154. Mark Appel—P, Stanford Univ. (2012) (+30)
155. Tyler Thornburg—P, Brewers (+3)
156. Lucas Duda—OF, Mets (+29)
Adjustment ranking…Duda is performing well in the Mets’ lineup.
157. JP Arencibia—C, Blue Jays
158. Reymond Fuentes—OF, Padres
159. Ben Revere—OF, Twins (-5)
160. Trey McNutt—P, Cubs (-7)
161. Chad James—P, Marlins
162. Wily Peralta—P, Brewers (+25)
163. JD Martinez—OF, Astros (+10)
164. Brandon Nimmo—OF, Mets (+13)
165. Fernando Salas—P, Cardinals (-20)
Salas’ value is heavily dependent upon his ability to acquire saves.
166. Daniel Norris—P, Blue Jays
167. Tim Beckham—SS, Rays (-13)
168. Juan Francisco—3B, Reds (+5)
169. Juan Nicasio—P, Rockies
170. Reese Havens—2B, Mets
171. Alex Meyer—P, Nationals
172. Jaff Decker—OF, Padres (-4)
173. Derek Norris—C, Nationals (-10)
174. Chris Carter—1B/OF, Athletics (+15)
175. Tyler Matzek—P, Rockies (+18)
176. Michael Taylor—OF, Athletics
177. Luis Heredia—P, Pirates
178. Simon Castro— P, Padres (+1)
179. Jose Fernandez—P, Marlins (+15)
180. Guillermo Pimentel—OF, Mariners (+3)
181. Jerry Sands—1B/OF, Dodgers (-30)
Discouraging split: Sands hit .355 in Albuquerque but .185 on the road.
182. Wilmer Flores—SS, Mets (-6)
183. Noah Syndergaard—P, Blue Jays (+9)
184. Kyle Parker—OF, Rockies (+2)
185. Ronald Torreyes—2B, Reds (+15)
186. Taylor Guerrieri—P, Rays (+10)
187. Grant Green—OF, Athletics (-15)
188. Brody Colvin—P, Phillies
189. Christian Friedrich—P, Rockies (-19)
190. Adrian Salcedo—P, Twins (+5)
191. Hank Conger—C, Angels
192. Norichika Aoki—OF, Japan
193. Rubby De La Rosa—P, Dodgers
194. Barrett Loux—P, Rangers
195. Kyle Gibson—P, Twins (-50)
Gibson’s value drops as he officially needs Tommy John surgery.
196. LJ Hoes—OF, Orioles
197. Alfredo Despaigne—OF, Cuba
198. John Lamb—P, Royals
199. Blake Swihart—C, Red Sox
200. Chris Dwyer—P, Royals (-10)
201. Charlie Blackmon—OF, Rockies
202. Eddie Rosario—OF, Twins (+30)
Rising prospect offers a terrific combination of power and plate discipline.
203. Neil Ramirez—P, Rangers
204. Felix Doubront—P, Red Sox
205. Aaron Crow—P, Royals (-30)
206. Xander Bogaerts—SS, Red Sox
207. Austin Romine— C, Yankees (-11)
208. Enny Romero—P, Rays (+12)
209. Ryan Lavarnway—C, Red Sox
210. Josh Sale—OF, Rays
211. Chris Marrero—1B, Nationals
212. Joe Benson—OF, Twins (-10)
213. Drew Smyly—P, Tigers (new)
Former Arkansas pitcher was terrific following promotion to AA (1.18 ERA over 45 innings).
214. Josh Collmenter—P, Diamondbacks
215. Jackie Bradley, Jr—OF, Red Sox
216. Josh Vitters—3B, Cubs
217. Mason Williams—OF, Yankees (-12)
218. Tony Sanchez—C, Pirates (-15)
219. Mikie Mahtook—OF, Rays
220. Kyle Seager—3B, Mariners (+5)
221. Lance McCullers, Jr —P/INF, HS (Fla) (2012) (-20)
222. Devin Marrero—SS, Arizona State (2012) (+15)
223. Kenny Diekroeger—INF, Stanford Univ. (2012) (-20)
Adjustment ranking…next season’s top prospects seem pretty speculative beyond Appel.
224. Jennry Mejia—P, Mets
225. Rymer Liriano—OF, Padres
226. Hisashi Iwakuma—P, Japan
227. Jose Iglesias—SS, Red Sox (-20)
228. Joe Ross—P, Padres
229. Brian Goodwin—OF, Nationals
230. Dillon Gee—P, Mets
231. Matthew Davidson—3B, Diamondbacks (+5)
232. Nick Williams—OF, HS (Tex) (2012)
233. CJ Cron—1B, Angels
234. Nomar Mazara—OF, Rangers
235. Drew Vettleson—OF, Rays (-5)
236. David Holmberg—P, Diamondbacks
237. Francisco Martinez—3B, Mariners
238. Donavan Tate—OF, Padres
239. Tyler Anderson—P, Rockies
240. Jose Campos—P, Mariners (new)
Solid numbers plus impressive scouting reports make Campos a solid dynasty option.
241. Stetson Allie—P, Pirates
242. Yamaico Navarro—SS, Royals (-7)
243. Blake Tekotte—OF, Padres (-9)
244. Brandon Jacobs—OF, Red Sox
245. Ronald Guzman—OF, Rangers
246. Yorman Rodriguez—OF, Reds
247. Julio Rodriguez—P, Phillies (new)
Considered listing Biddle, but Rodriguez’s impressive A+ #’s (156 IP’s, 168 k’s, and 2.76 ERA) justify his inclusion.
248. Elier Hernandez—OF, Royals
249. Matt Adams—1B, Cardinals
250. Lucas Giolito—P, HS (Cal) (2012)
Rising pitching prospect is widely considered a top pick in next season’s draft.
Removed: Carlos Perez—C, Blue Jays (#238), Todd Frazier—3B, Reds (#241), Edward Salcedo—3B, Braves (#242), Trey Williams—3B, HS (Cal) (2012) (#250)
Also considered: Jesse Biddle (P, Phillies), Brad Boxberger (P, Reds), Ryan Brett (2B, Rays), Drake Britton (P, Red Sox), Adrian Cardenas (3B, Athletics), Adonis Cardona (P, Blue Jays), Phillips Castillo (SS, Mariners), Garin Cecchini (3B, Red Sox), Pat Corbin (P, Diamondbacks), Colin Cowgill (OF, Diamondbacks), Delino Deshields (2B, Astros), Adeiny Hechavarria (SS, Blue Jays), Tommy Joseph (C, Giants), Alex Liddi (3B/SS, Mariners), Taylor Lindsay (2B, Angels), Jake McGee (P, Rays), Brent Morel (3B, White Sox), Thomas Neal (OF, Giants), Justin Nicolino (P, Blue Jays), Kirk Nieuwenhuis (OF, Mets), Tsuyoshi Nishioka (SS, Twins), Justin O’Conner (C, Rays), Ariel Ovando (OF, Astros), Chris Owings (SS, Diamondbacks), Joe Panik (SS, Giants), Esteilon Peguero (SS, Mariners), David Perez (P, Rangers), Edinson Rincon (3B, Padres), Tanner Scheppers (P, Rangers), Robert Stephenson (P, Reds), Alfredo Silverio (OF, Dodgers), Jake Thompson (P, Rays), Sebastian Valle (C, Phillies), Jonathan Villar (SS, Astros), Kyle Weiland (P, Red Sox).
I think San Diego addressed their shortage of Catching prospects in a huge way this year.
They signed arguably the best Latin American Catching prospect available in Jose Ruiz from Venezuela…..”Ruiz, who is 6-foot-2, 180 pounds, is a 16-year-old righthanded hitter from Guacara. Scouts considered Ruiz one of the top catchers in Latin America this year because of his projectable frame, advanced defense and raw power”
Also,of course,they drafted and signed Austin Hedges out of High School.
I can’t recall ever hearing similar praise as I’ve heard of his defense at such an age.He is considered Major League ready defensively coming out of High School……..just hoping his bat keeps him progressing up the system on schedule.
Obviously these two are far from contributing in San Diego,but you have to love the upside of these two teenagers!
They drafted and signed three other Catchers in the 10th,16th,and 22nd rounds this year.Now Shortstop?…….definitely the weakest position in the system at this point.Losing Drew Cumberland was a big blow to be sure!
Good stuff re: the Padres system! I think y’all should probably be Top 10 next season. I really like the job the Padres are doing w/ their farm system. Their system offers realistic MLB options at almost every position (not sure about catcher and shortstop), and I thought acquiring Erlin and Wieland was a solid return for Adams.
I just missed seeing Sampson as he pitched a gem the night before I arrived.As far as Spangenburg is concerned he was in the beginning of his terrible slump and was not hitting at all while I was there.I am very pleased that he has turned things around.I expect Cory to develop into a major league utility guy.I feel he will always hit,and he can certainly run,but his lack of power will be a limitation to his production.I am also hoping he improves defensively and shows he can handle second base and/or centerfield.
As far as the Padres system is concerned I have seen many rank them in the top 10 but still feel they are being undervalued.Unfortunately/Fortunately they should have some good picks again in next years draft and due to their new philosophy of picking the best players instead of the “safe”,”signable” type,I suspect they will be solidly top 5 next year.
The Mike Adams trade was not a popular one amongst Padre fans….but those of us who follow the Farm system were ecstatic to add Weiland and Erlin to an already deep system.The Padres best prospects are rising to AA and beyond next year and hence should receive more recognition nationally.
Keep up the good work!
Mr.P.
Thanks, Mr. Padre! The trick to keeping updated rankings is incorporating feedback b/c there is definitely lots I don’t know. Some of the best feedback is from people w/ firsthand knowledge of certain players. I listed Rymer as a sleeper coming into the season, but haven’t done too great a job following him this season. The combination of speed/power is really impressive…especially considering he the plate discipline numbers are not bad (drew some walks and kept his k-rate below 20%). The Padres are building a pretty interesting system! In those games, did you get to see Sampson or Spangenberg?
Appreciate the offer, Tyrus! I have a pretty set schedule where I do most of the work on Sunday night. We’ve been trying to figure out some ideas for the site. At this point, our main weakness is it’s hard to find time to generate additional content besides the lists (plus, we have some web design stuff we’d like to improve). Ideally, in addition to the prospect lists, we’d eventually like to expand the site to include more content focusing on major leaguers (in addition to the weekly prospect lists). We focus lots on prospects is b/c there is no larger site that focuses on dynasty leagues and/or publishes updated lists, but assuming the site grows, adding writers who would publish other content might be a good way to eventually expand the site?
I appreciate that you are willing to get others’ opinions on these prospects as it is impossible to scout them all.I traveled to Ft Wayne to see the Tin Caps(from Georgia) a month ago or so and was blown away by Rymers speed and power combo.His burst out of the box is incredible for a guy his size.As a lifelong Padre fan I am used to their prospects being a bit overlooked.If you get a chance,see as much of him as you can.I expect him to continue to impress next year and expect him to finish 2012 at San Antonio.
Regards,Mr.P.
*In response to my last post I had just realized I was thinking about Eddie Rosario instead of Rymer Liriano. Sorry, just really tired. I would probably rank Liriano a lighter higher up, but I haven’t gathered too much information about him yet.
I would personall rank Liriano in the 80-90 range. In my ranking book I would probably have him a little below Szczur, but a little bit above Gose.
But if you are interested in me helping out, the only slightly murky time for me would be during April/May, the weekdays would be tough on me, but I am developing much better time management skills so it shouldn’t be much of a problem and would easily be able to post a weekly update on a Saturday or Sunday night based on personal plans. Just wanted to let you know if you were thinking about it
Sorry about the slow responses, y’all! I have been out of town all weekend and just got back to Houston.
I’ll definitely publish an update of the Top 100, Tyrus. But instead of just including minor leaguers, I’ll create the list based on the players I think will graduate (50 innings, 130 AB’s). It’s not totally clear whether a few prospects will graduate (Kipnis, Mike Trout), but I’ll make my best guess.
That’s a good suggestion on getting some helpers for the list. I considered doing that earlier in the year because having some discussion before the list is published might improve the quality of the rankings. One thing I like about our list is the interaction that goes into creating it appears on the comment board, so in a sense, it’s already a community list that incorporates many different opinions.
I would think Profar’s ETA is probably 2013? He should begin next season in A+, and if everything goes well, a mid-season promotion to AA seems really possible.
That’s a good suggestion on the HS players, Jack. For fantasy purposes, the big question is balancing the additional upside w/ the extra risk and time it will take a HS prospect to reach the major leagues.
Not totally disagreeing on Liriano. Based on this year’s numbers, I like how he stole 65 bases and showed respectable power while keeping his strikeout rate below 20%. How would y’all rank Liriano compared to Szczur and Gose?
Rymer Liriano #225?
About 100 spots too low IMO!
Since your done with the normal top 100 thing I was wondering if you could make a top 100 with just the rookies that were drafted based on how good of a prospect they are?
Hey Brad what do you think jurickson profar’s eta is?
I never heard back from Geo, so I’m assuming he doesn’t want a part in the league. If you still do though, we’re still looking. My email’s ryne_alber@yahoo.com so just let me know.
And that’s not quite how our league works. We just get to pick which team’s name we want. I.e. I’m the Rangers so my fantasy team’s the Texas Rangers and I have the Rangers logo and such. But that’s about it. We don’t get the entire Rangers organization, our teams are made up of various players just like any other league is. It’s a really great league so if anyone’s interested, just let me know.
Oh, and Buckel’s a top 100 prospect fa sho! I liked the Adams trade assuming that he’d be our closer for next year with Feliz moving into the rotation, if that’s not the case, then I definitely don’t like it. One of those wait-and-see trades.
Brad, I am with Tyrus. If you need any help with the site please let me know as well. I enjoy this more than most leagues I have been in. Thanks for all the great and hard work on the site. It is definitely appreciated.
I didn’t say plate discipline, I said strike zone judgment. It’s my fault, and really is an example of semantics. Sorry about that. Matt Adams goes outside of the strike zone a lot, that was what I intended to say. I think that’s going to hurt him in MLB. Cox can play corner outfield if he doesn’t stay at 3B. Miles Head is a nice player to compare to Adams, because they put up great numbers, but they have …um…sturdy frames that limit their defensive capabilities. Reminds me of a great piece on Miles Head from scouting the sally. A lot of the same limitations(Stocky, bad body prospect, defense limits him to DH/1B play) apply to Adams.
http://scoutingthesally.com/scouting-report-miles-head-first-base-boston-red-sox-prospect-video/
I would also say you may want to hold off on ranking newly drafted highschool players so high. For example lindor, baez, and starling havent seen any real playing time and they are way up there. Starling in particular in the 20s seems high especially because he has questionable hit tools and may not develop
Hey, I was just curious if there was going to be a top 100 update anytime soon? I really enjoy those rankings so I just want to know.
Also, is there any special way you find out how players do week-to-week or do you just look it up?
A third in final thing is that if you were looking for someone to post weekly updates for the Top 100 updates I would be interested in doing that next year, but if you don’t need anyone to that’s cool too.
I also kind of feel like Arencibia’s always going to post lower BABIPs as a fence-swinger.
I was actually looking at Arencibia a few weeks ago on fangraphs. My general impression is his average is slightly low for what a player w/ his skills will post, but at the same time, it would be really difficult for Arencebia to bring his average above .250. There is some argument the average could rise based on the .221 BABIP, but the problem is the strikeout rate is 29%. Generally speaking, a player’s batting average will rarely exceed .250 when their strikeout rate is that high. Occasionally, faster players like Drew Stubbs can finish w/ a more acceptable average despite the high strikeout rates.
My other concern is the 7% walk rate is awfully low compared to the strikeout rate. Generally speaking, when the strikeout rate exceeds the walk rate by more than 20%, it’s a sign that it’ll be really tough for the player to be productive, IMO. Arencibia has done a decent job this season and could increase his production, but I think it’ll take him finding a way to reduce the strikeout totals by 4-5% without adversely affecting his power too much. Easier said than done!
Hey Bradley,
I am having a hard time judging JP Arencibia…Despite his good future with the Jays and his 20+ HR’s at a Catchers position, I tend to stay away from players with a horrible AVG., as his poor .215 AVG is a Dynasty nightmare.
I anticipate his average will get better, but what do you feel?
That’s a solid point re: Beachy and Worley, Mehul. One of the toughest things to do on this list is value the relatively unheralded prospects who perform well in their rookie seasons. On one hand, the values seem low when the ultimate question is which players will perform in the major leagues. On the other, since we are grading for long-term value, it’s hard to value prospects based on the # of guys who cannot repeat their surprising rookie campaigns. I think we’ve probably placed too little emphasis on major league production, but as I watch how those players perform in later campaigns, we’ll hopefully start finding a better balance between those concepts.
I’m not totally sold on Cox, but at this point, I’m hopeful he’ll provide some value to the Cardinals at 3B. It was an up and down season where-before and after the promotion-he struggled initially before showing why the Cardinals invested heavily in him. My problem w/ Adams defensively isn’t necessarily he wouldn’t be able to handle first base in the majors. It just seems really unlikely his size will allow him to play any position besides 1B in the major leagues. If Pujols remains in STL, it really hurts his dynasty value b/c it’s hard to imagine he’ll receive a starting role unless he is traded to another team. If Pujols leaves, I think he’s probably a borderline Top 100 prospect. If Pujols stays, I’d value him well behind Goldy but ahead of guys like Miles Head, Matt Rizzotti, Dan Vogelbach, Clint Robinson, etc.
One possibility would be perhaps having Adams ahead of guys like CJ Cron and Chris Marrero?
o and goldschmidt may walk more but he also strike out alot more as well
I would actually put Adams higher than Cox. Cox is not going to have any value in the system as a 3b, if he can play 2b he could.
Adams by the way does not have big defensive limitations at 1st. He is actually much better than people give credit for and is supposedly pretty athletic. Also, he walks at 10% strikes out at 20%, not irregular for a power hitter in his 2nd full season. Most guys usually refine plate discipline as they get older, like albert pujols for example.
Adams is essentially the same player as Paul Goldschmidt whop you have at 66, Adams at 249
Great updates as usual. How come a guy like Brandon Beachy at age 23 and pitching better than a majority of other mlb players with even more experience against the best hitters in the world is lower then delgado, banuelos, and minor who at best seem to put up Beachy like numbers against inferior hitters in the minors? Is it the thinking that minor and beachy who are the same age, beachy will just stay the same and minor will get better and surpass beachy in skillset? Minor will have to become pretty impressive based on beachy’s numbers though. Also Vance Worley. I wonder if you ranked the MLB sp where he would end up and then ranked the minor league pitchers where he would end up. I would hope that he would be higher on the minor league ranking but not sure based on him being #96 here. He seems to be in the rookie of the year race to me in the mlb alongside freeman and kimbrell and beachy, but guys of the same age like belt who arent performing as well are ranked higher. I don’t know if realistically Minor will be able to ever put up numbers like Worley puts up. He will have to really blossom into a stud.
Agreed on Tavares. The numbers have been great for a guy who is really just starting to receive increased attention. Being one of the youngest prospects invited to the AFL, I could really see a good performance increasing his value into a consensus top prospect.
Also totally agree on Adams. The ranking is low for the numbers, but at the same time, I can’t put him over those other guys. If the Cardinals somehow lost Pujols this offseason, I would really jump his value. Even with Pujols, I have no huge problem giving Adams a slight jump so there is less of a gap between Adams and the other players.
Matt Adams and Oscar Taveras are in the AFL. I am really excited to see how both perform. Adams deserves to be there, but you have to think the Cardinals are showcasing him for Pujols negotiations, or to raise his value in trade talks. Oscar Taveras could come out of the AFL as a huge star. I think a lot of people that are on the fence about him will be won over by a great showing in the AFL.
I don’t know if you can put Adams much higher. He produces great numbers, but I don’t think he has the best strike zone judgment, and he is severely limited defensively. I like him, and you are right about him putting up a line that is hard to ignore, Jack. I don’t see how you put him over anyone Bradley mentioned as being above him in the Cardinals’ prospects, but you could probably make an argument he could be a bit higher or lower. Just to look a bit ahead of him on the list, I wouldn’t take him over Brandon Jacobs.
I would have liked to have seen how Matt Adams did in A+ Palm Beach, because that place has dimensions that rival the good ole Astrodome(Shout out to Brad and Astros fans)! 380 in the alleys, and 400 to dead center. The Cardinals tend to let their advanced bats skip A+ because of that reason.
Not totally disagreeing w/ you, but probably somewhere in the middle. Interesting discussion re: Adams’ value on this Cardinals fan site.
http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=321&f=2089&t=7677188
It’s basically the same discussion we’re having w/ some people valuing Adams right there w/ Cox while others keeping him near the bottom of their system’s top 10. I have Adams #7 in the Cardinals’ system behind Miller, Martinez, Cox, Tavares. Wong, and Jenkins. Would y’all put Adams above those other players and/or close the gap between Jenkins/Adams?
O and he hit 32 Hr, even though he missed near 20 games with an oblique injury. The injury most likely affected him the rest of the year as well since it is a lingering injury.
Matt Adams at 249? That is ridiculous. He hit 32 HR in a jump from Low A to Double A, he should possibly be a Top 50 easily Top 100. He is not old for the league (just turned 23), and was not repeating the level so there is no real way to diminish his accomplishments. He is definitely in the Top 5 1B prospects in baseball, 249 is ridiculous
Both players are intriguing prospects, Kevin. Generally, it’s a mistake to place too much weight in VSL statistics b/c they often do not translate here for various reasons. At the same time, nobody in recent memory dominated the VSL like Hernandez (a 17 year old catcher w/ an OPS of 1.236!). He is clearly a prospect, but it’ll take a little time to see whether the numbers translate over here.
Telis is a really intriguing player. One thing I really like about him is the respectable power (11 HR’s) and low strikeout rate. His weak spot is the walk rate needs to improve some (.329 OBP), and he absolutely needs to remain at catcher. He split time at catcher this season w/ Kellin Deglan. I’m not clear on whether the reports re: his defense are positive, but if so, he definitely offers pretty solid potential.
Good to see the boys north of the border getting some love. Toronto is full of sleepers.
I am doing a buy or sell list on my entire farm system and was wondering what you have heard (if anything) about two intruging guys I own. Tomas Telis C/DH TEX and Oscar Hernandez C TB. I like Tolis, but he doesnt seem to have a position and his 5′8″ frame bothers me. Hernandez put up monster numbers in the VSL, but can they transfer?
Agreed the Rangers have a loaded system! I think they are definitely top 10 and probably top 5.
Random question. What do y’all think of their deadline trade for Adams? Even though Adams is a solid reliever, I think Erlin/Weiland was a lot for the Rangers to sacrifice. But I guess they needed to sure up their bullpen, and under the right circumstances, they could be tough in the playoffs.
I’d go with borderline top 100 prospect, I am a bit more conservative than others on here, even though I like him a lot. I might say definite top 100, because I might be influenced by how many top prospects the Rangers have.
If anyone is looking for a responsible owner looking for a fun and competitive league, I’d be glad to join one as well. I’ll give my main email: quarkysouls[at]gmail.com
Not a problem, Tyrus. I think the general consensus on Buckel is he is being valued as a borderline Top 100 prospect w/ the potential to rise quickly by repeating this season’s performance at a more advanced level.
Glad it looks like you found a league, Geo! If I remember correctly, Ryne’s league is pretty interesting where it’s customized to certain teams (i.e., somebody has the Rangers, Astros, etc). If Blue Jays are available, you are all set!
Jed, my thought is to probably keep Moustakas and Alonso. But the off-season will give you a lot of information re: the Reds’ long-term plan for Alonso. I’m not totally sold on Moustakas, but I think I like him ahead of Rizzo at this point. Depending on the offer, I don’t mind the idea of trying to sell high on Pineda. Otherwise, I think he’s a surefire keeper.
Brad… not sure if you were keeping tabs on him.. but Domingo Santana really impressed once he got to Lexington! He is potential sleeper inside the Astros system after getting him in the Pence deal. 6′5 – 200lbs and plays CF… if he can cut down on the Ks he has big time potential!
Hey Guys…
My Keeper League season has finally come to an end.. although I am fighting for positioning in the upcoming 2012 drafts in the Consolation bracket.. and now I have to come up with my 9 players that I want to go into 2012 with..
I have guys like Yonder Alonso, Ivan Nova, Dayan Viciedo AKA The Tank, and Mike Moustakas on my roster and they have all surpassed or soon to be passing their rookie eligibility.
Here are all the young guys I can possibly keep: Alonso, Nova, Viciedo, Moustakas, Pineda, Minor, Henderson Alvarez, Anthony Rizzo, Chris Sale, and Drew Storen.
I have keyed in on Storen and Sale as 100% sure to keep… Which of two of the these other guys would you all think I should keep… I like Pineda but I may be able to sell him high after his impressive rookie campaign.. Im leaning towards Moustakas and Rizzo… but Viciedo can really hit?.. Need help..
Thanks,
Jed
I see Buckel being borderline Top 100, with breakout potential, I think I might actually take him with one of my picks!
Anyways, thanks for the list! Although several of the players you listed have also been selected. (I snagged Marisnik, then Cron, Tavarez and Yelich have also been taken) But definaltly Buckel, Wong, Schoop, Paxton, Purke, Rosario and Boagerts are the ones i’m really interested in.
Geo we’d LOVE to have you in our league. It’s super deep and I haven’t had a single problem in it. One of the managers just said this is our last year so check your email because I sent you one.
Haha. Can’t believe I forgot to switch Nicolino! I create the list on a word document, and every week, I transfer the list onto the site. Last week I fixed his name on the post but not the document. The misspelling makes me laugh b/c—even though I’ve botched some names (“TiJuan Walker”)—turning Justin Nicolino into Juan Nicolio is pretty rough!
Yeah, the general consensus seems to be putting Buckel higher. Coming into next season, do most people on here see Buckel as a: (1) non-top 100 prospect, (2) a borderline top 100 prospect (ok to have him, ok to not have him), or (3) a definite top 100 prospect?
Good luck finding a league, Geo! I play in two leagues down here in Houston, and I am actually going to scale down to one league next season. The league I’m leaving is pretty good (played in the league forever, but don’t have time for two league plus website). I would offer you to take over the Fighting Shamrocks, but the problem is they conduct live drafts in Houston. That would be some intense traveling!
Attention ALL: My dynasty league is calling it quits as this is the last season. Most players have small families and dont have the time to commit to research etc. Even getting a majority for rule changes has been a hassle, so we are dibanding…
IN ANY CASE: Geo007 is a free agent and is looking for an active league with active players. I am not that familiar with other leagues and/or rules (I have been in the same private league), so it may be a slow start, but i am quick learner as i am sure the concepts stay the same!
Let me know if anyone is looking, contact me here or via email ggffalbo@hotmail.com
You have Juan Nicolino again…hehe
Nice to see Buckel crack top 150. Personally i have him higher and I he has the makeup of a Dan Haren / Roy Oswalt pitcher.
I think Rosario is a pretty solid pick. He’s definitely a rising prospect, and realistically, I think our value is probably a little low. For example, in a recent BA chat, I saw one of their writers say they would take Rosario ahead of Oscar Tavares. Speaking of Tavares, I think he would be an excellent late round choice. I’d probably actually take Oscar, but perhaps that’s simply because I know more about him.
If I were drafting, here are the guys outside the Top 70 I’d be enthusiastic about drafting.
82. Christian Yelich—K-Law made a great call at mid-season putting him in his Top 50.
86. Jake Marisnick—lots of interesting discussions re: whether Marisnick is more valuable than Gose.
102. James Paxton
111. Oscar Tavaras
120. Nestor Molina
121. Bryce Brentz (I’ve always been a Brentz fan)
138. Jonathan Schoop (another guy K-Law and scouts have been enthusiastic about…struggled a little during High A promoition but started showing signs later in the season).
139. Kolten Wong
149. Cody Buckel—I’m a little slow getting on the bangwagon, but a lot of people on here would put him higher.
150. Matthew Purke (this is a flyer b/c of health, but I sorta like a late pick on Purke)
185. Ronald Torreyes
202. Eddie Rosario
206. Xander Boagerts
233. CJ Cron
240. Jose Campos
247. Julio Rodriguez
When you get to your next pick, throw out five names of potential picks and you’ll definitely get some feedback! Helping w/ people’s drafts always helps make the rankings better. For example, if I’m listing these players as guys I’m enthusiastic about actually drafting, maybe that means I should rank them higher? Haha.
So Bradley, my draft is offically expanded to 10 rounds, I need to find some awesome sleeper prospects that will shoot up the prospect list next year. Would you say that Eddie Rosario is on the fast track to being a top 25-35 prospect (maybe not by next year, but possibly 2013)? Any other under-the-radar players you would recommened would be great. (Players not signed to a contract after the MLB signing deadline are not able to be drafted and most, if not all of the top 70 or so prospects are taken.)
Yeah, if I was trying to vote on my favorite offensive prospect based solely on the numbers, Arenado is near the top of the list. Playing in A+ at age 20, Arenado hit .300 w/ an OPS of .833 (20 HR’s and 122 RBI’s). What makes those numbers especially impressive is he produced them keeping his strikeout rate under 10% (53 strikeouts in 583 PA’s). Only a few other players on our list produced comparably low strikeout rates, and of those players, none showed much power (Colon, Revere, etc). A big question w/ Arenado is how the transition to AA will affect his power totals. But the low strikeout rates put the odds in his favor b/c he can afford to strikeout a little more to maintain his power totals.
Not sure what to make of Rosario? I’ve seen him play several times, and from a firsthand perspective, I am a fan b/c he’s a catcher w/ nice combination of respectable power and the defensive skills to remain behind the plate. On paper, I’m less enthusiastic b/c he draws almost zero walks. Unless that improves, it’s hard to see him getting on base enough to be an effective catcher. But I think he’s much more talented than this year’s OBP in AA (.284), but it’s a matter of making sure that # rises (or at least remains stable) against tougher pitching.
Arenado is the real deal, nice to see him moving up. Interesting to see that the Rockies decided to skip AAA with Rosario and give him a September call-up. From all reports it looks like they didn’t want him developing poor habits at the plate in the Pacific Coast League. I’d look for Arenado to spend 2012 in AA Tulsa until he is called up. Very impressive finish to this season.
Agreed re: Stewart. Since coming to the White Sox, Stewart has faced the Twins three times and pitched well twice. The last start was definitely encouraging, but at the same time, it’s too early to call it a “breakout performance.” I think Stewart is a worthwhile investment for Chicago…but it’ll take time before we’ll know whether he can be effective w/ reasonable consistency.
What’s up Joe! Yeah, I considered putting Freeman ahead of Hosmer last week. Hosmer offers huge HR potential, while there is some concern Freeman will max out at 20-25 HR’s. Besides the HR potential, the other discouraging recent trend w/ Freeman is the recent plate discipline totals have not been great (k:bb is up to127:43). At the same time, my reason for really liking Freeman is—regardless of the limitations on his HR potential—I feel pretty confident in his ability to develop into a productive player. But ranking him #6 is a little bold.
I was pleased with the Zach Stewart 1-hitter but you have to put it in context too… it was against the same Twins team that Peavy and Humber both destroyed. Minnesota is terrible right now. I’ll be watching his remaining starts with interest (assuming he is not shut down soon).
Hosmer should be even further ahead of Freeman IMO. Good move up there. Freeman that high is a little bold being that he plays 1B and only offers 25 HR potential according to most scouts. Hosmer’s upside is a lot closer to a Joey Votto.
Anybody else excited to have Mike Trout at LF,CF,& RF in fantasy next season? I am.
Haha. For sure! Actually wanted to put him a little bit higher, but after Miller pitched so well, it was tough to find a spot higher than 10.
Love to see Lawrie make the top 10!!