Here is a current update of our Top 100 prospects. I tried to project which players will graduate by the end of the season (50 IP’s or 130 AB’s), and placed a “*” next to several players with a good chance of graduating. It’s worth mentioning the rankings are estimates taken from our end of season rankings, and I put arrows next to some of the players I think we should consider putting higher or lower. The off-season will provide a good time to really evaluate the reasoning behind our rankings, and let us know which players y’all would rank higher or lower.
1. Bryce Harper—OF, Nationals
2. Mike Trout—OF, Angels*
3. Matt Moore—P, Rays
4. Julio Teheran—P, Braves
5. Shelby Miller—P, Cardinals
6. Gerrit Cole—P, Pirates
7. Jurickson Profar—SS, Rangers
8. Anthony Rendon—3B, Nationals
9. Jesus Montero—C, Yankees
10. Tyler Skaggs—P, Diamondbacks
11. Manny Machado—SS, Orioles
12. Dylan Bundy—P, Orioles
13. Devin Mesoraco—C, Reds
14. Danny Hultzen—P, Mariners
15. Jameson Taillon—P, Pirates ↓
16. Bubba Starling—OF, Royals
17. Robbie Erlin—P, Padres ↓
18. Jacob Turner—P, Tigers
19. Drew Pomeranz—P, Rockies
20. Trevor Bauer—P, Diamondbacks
21. Miguel Sano—3B, Twins
22. Yonder Alonso—1B/OF, Reds
23. Martin Perez—P, Rangers
24. Manny Banuelos—P, Yankees
25. Jason Kipnis—2B, Indians*
26. Brett Jackson—OF, Cubs ↓
27. Carlos Martinez—P, Cardinals
28. Randall Delgado—P, Braves
29. Taijuan Walker—P, Mariners
30. Travis D’Arnaud—C, Blue Jays
31. Jarrod Parker—P, Diamondbacks ↓
32. Arodys Vizcaino—P, Braves
33. Jake Odorizzi—P, Royals ↓
34. Leonys Martin—OF, Rangers
35. Gary Brown—OF, Giants
36. Wil Myers—OF, Royals ↓
37. Zach Wheeler—P, Mets
38. Nolan Arenado—3B, Rockies
39. Hak-Ju Lee—SS, Rays ↓
40. Matt Harvey—P, Mets
41. Zach Lee—P, Dodgers ↓
42. Archie Bradley—P, Diamondbacks
43. Jonathan Singleton—1B, Astros
44. Dellin Betances—P, Yankees
45. Billy Hamilton—2B/SS, Reds
46. George Springer—OF, Astros
47. Zach Cox—3B, Cardinals
48. Brad Peacock—P, Nationals
49. Jarred Cosart—P, Astros
50. Casey Kelly—P, Padres ↓
51. Deck McGuire—P, Blue Jays
52. Yasmani Grandal—C, Reds
53. Michael Choice—OF, Athletics
54. Sonny Gray—P, Athletics
55. Taylor Jungmann—P, Brewers
56. Jean Segura—2B, Angels
57. Joe Wieland—P, Padres
58. Nick Franklin—SS, Mariners
59. AJ Cole—P, Nationals ↓
60. Christian Yelich—OF, Marlins ↑
61. Francisco Lindor—SS, Indians ↑
62. Liam Hendriks—P, Twins
63. Jake Marisnick—OF, Blue Jays
64. Mike Montgomery—P, Royals ↓
65. Oswaldo Arcia—OF, Twins ↑
66. Drew Hutchison—P, Blue Jays ↑
67. Nathan Eovaldi—P, Dodgers* ↑
68. Wilin Rosario—C, Rockies ↓
69. Garrett Richards—P, Angels ↓
70. Nick Castellanos—3B, Tigers ↓
71. Trevor May—P, Phillies ↑
72. James Paxton—P, Mariners ↑
73. Alexander Colome—P, Rays
74. Matt Barnes—P, Red Sox
75. Jedd Gyorko—3B, Padres
76. James Darnell—3B, Padres
77. Oscar Taveras—OF, Cardinals ↑
78. Gary Sanchez—C, Yankees
79. Aaron Hicks—OF, Twins
80. Keyvious Sampson—P, Padres
81. Will Middlebrooks—3B, Red Sox ↑
82. Nestor Molina—P, Blue Jays ↑
83. Bryce Brentz—OF, Red Sox
84. Alexander Torres—P, Rays
85. Chris Archer—P, Rays
86. Alex White—P, Rockies
87. Joshua Bell—OF, Pirates ↑
88. Allen Webster—P, Dodgers
89. Anthony Gose—OF, Blue Jays ↑
90. Matt Dominguez—3B, Marlins
91. Starling Marte—OF, Pirates
92. Jeurys Familia—P, Mets
93. Eric Surkamp—P, Giants
94. Chad Bettis—P, Rockies
95. Jonathan Schoop—2B, Orioles ↑
96. Kolten Wong—2B, Cardinals ↑
97. Tyrell Jenkins—P, Cardinals ↑
98. Jed Bradley—P, Brewers
99. Javier Baez—SS, Cubs ↑
100. Cheslor Cuthbert—3B, Royals ↑
Possible snubs: Cody Buckel (P, Rangers), Corey Spangenberg (2B, Padres), Tim Wheeler (OF, Rockies). Tyler Thornburg (P, Brewers), Wily Peralta (P, Brewers), Noah Syndergaard (P, Blue Jays), Eddie Rosario (OF, Twins), Rymer Liriano (OF, Padres).
I got an ESPN text this morning saying the AL game would definitly start at 4:07pm eastern and the NL tie breaker would be at 7:30pm eastern ( I think, I was so excited about the 4:07 AL game I didn’t finish reading the text haha).
This has been a great finish! As a baseball fan, I am hoping for a tie because I would love to see Boston and Tampa play for a shot at the playoffs. Would they play the tie-breaker in the afternoon? If so, that might be the first game in a long time I care enough about that DVR’ing the game and waiting until I get home from work might not be possible. Only other time that’s happened was-back in the day-faking sick in school to watch the ’stros afternoon playoff games (TOTALLY worth it, in retrospect). Haha.
Ya I am assuming the Rays go gutsy with Moore and the Sox go gutsy with Beckett on 3-days rest (since we are the reason his ERA And WHIP are back down this year). That should be on hell of a late afternoon ballgame if it happens. I would rather just see Lester’s September ERA grow from 10+ to 12+ and see Price clinch it tonight vs NYY.
Yeah, the Wells signing definitely was not their proudest move. It wouldn’t surprise me if losing Carl Crawford affected their decision-making process, but it’s amazing they agreed to acquire Wells’ entire contract.
The Angels could be an interesting team coming into next season. It’s disappointing they did not win a few more games this season considering they received great performances from Weaver/Haren/Santana and their lineup was reasonably productive at every position besides catcher. I think what really hurt them this season was their pitching staff needed more depth. Their bullpen has really faltered down the stretch, and even though Chatwood had a decent rookie season, he and Piniero have not been particularly effective at the back of the rotation. It’ll be interesting to see what they do this off-season. They might be competitive next season assuming they add some depth to their pitching staff by adding a few reasonably-priced pitchers, but a lot depends on their lineup (Morales returning healthy, aging players holding up, Conger establishing himself, etc). Even though it’ll never happen, I think the Angels would be an interesting candidate to pursue Darvish assuming he comes to America and the asking price is not too unreasonable.
The Rays-Red Sox finish has been pretty exciting! If there was a playoff game, starting Moore over Niemann would be gutsy…but part of me likes the idea.
I agree with you on the Angels Brad, especially on Vernon Wells. I don’t work for their organization, but I didn’t understand their urgency in acquiring Wells. Los Angeles/Orange County/Anaheim is a nice baseball area where a player like Vladimir Guerrero whose first language is predominantly Spanish can be a superstar with little negativity from the media.
This situation could also be a blessing in disguise. Even though they presumably don’t have much money to spend this offseason, their bullpen blew A LOT of leads. I could see them making some nice under the radar moves for bullpen help and be ready for 2012.
The Angels have a nice problem with their outfield depth. Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu are both playing on expiring contracts in 2012, and that should buy them enough time for Trout to spend half a year in AA(They’re saying AAA, I’d rather see him play a half year in AA then come back up), and to have a more definite answer on Kendry Morales’ health and availability to the team.
I’ve always thought that the Vernon Wells trade happened because of the disappointments the Angels have had acquiring big name players on the market, free agency or otherwise. The majority of baseball may have forgotten Mark Teixeira played for the Angels, but I doubt their organization has. They were considered to be heavily invested into acquiring Carl Crawford this offseason, but unfortunately that didn’t work out as well.
Left field is locked up with Vernon Wells, but their outfield depth is a nice problem to have for 2012. Other teams may be pressured in keeping Trout in the majors instead of in the minors in a different situation.
So if the Rays and Red Sox tie, I think Matt Moore pitches the one game playoff?
Not sure what the Angels will do? Among about 100 other things, their roster situation coming into next season provides another example which makes you wonder why they traded for Wells’ contract b/c the outfield jam was not particularly unforeseeable. Basically, the team comes into next season with seven players (Hunter, Bourjos, Trout, Wells, Abreu, Morales, and Trumbo) competing for five spots.
The Angels could look at it several ways. First, considering several of those players are getting older and Morales’ health situation is questionable, the depth could be beneficial because there’s a decent chance playing time will open on its own. At the same time, assuming the Angels felt confident Morales would return healthy, I’ve gotta think the Angels would be receptive to trading Trumbo assuming they could get something close to FMV. Not sure about trades in the OF? Obviously they could never trade Trout, and trading the older players doesn’t make sense b/c of their contracts, no-trade clauses, etc. If they could get the right deal for Bourjos, a trade might make sense. But based on the current situation I don’t think they would necessarily need to trade Bourjos unless they were receiving at least FMV.
Torii and Abreu are both signed for next year. They’ve got one guy too many if Kendrys isn’t back, and two if he is.
Bradley,
Speaking of the Angels/Trumbo, what do you see for the Angels OF next year? Do you know the contract situation of the veterans? Right now we have Torii, Bourjos, Trout, Abreu, and Trumbo, with Kendrys back as well.
Good call taking Jungmann. He’s a first-round college pitcher who seems like good value at that spot.
Tough call on that last pick! I think Liriano is the best value, but I can see your concern w/ that loaded outfield. Torreyes versus Schoop is a tough call. I would probably take Schoop. The information re: Schoop has been really positive (I think K-Law is a fan), and during the second half, you started to see signs of those positive scouting reports turning into production. But I’m a little hesitant b/c Torreyes is the better pick based totally on the numbers. However, I think I’d still go w/ Schoop b/c Torreyes is moderately undersized and the information about him is still a little limited.
Okay guys thanks for the great advice! I decided to go with Jungman, as he had seemed like a pretty safe pick with a pretty high ceiling (Also I don’t have a Milwaukee players, and I tend to like to try to have atleast one prospect/player from every team)
So for my last pick I”m really unsure who to pick, I have narrowed it down to:
Jonathan Schoop, 2B/3B
Rymer Liriano, OF
Ronald Torreyes, 2B
I really want to pick Liriano but the only discourcerning thing for me is that I have an incredibly deep OF, at the majors I have Stanton, Brown, Revere, Trout, and Tabata. Then In the minors I have Marisnik, Rosario, Springer, Myers and Szczur. So it’s extremely deep, but since a lot of prospects bust should position and depth not really be considered?
Trumbo is having a solid year w/ those 29 homers. It is really impressive he managed to reduce his strikeout rate after advancing to the major leagues, and the .477 slugging percentage is respectable. His only weak spot is—despite hitting .254—the 4% walk rate left him w/ a .291 OBP, which put him dead last in OBP among first baseman w/ more than 400 PA’s. I think he’ll definitely finish in the Top 5 or 10 for rookie of year, and regardless of where he finishes, the Angels have gotta be pleased w/ the job he did replacing Morales this season.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens next season. If Morales returns healthy, do y’all think the Angels will try to trade Trumbo or perhaps move somebody to DH?
Mark Trumbo anyone?? This guy is going to be AL ROY …he’s been pretty much the most important player on his own team of all the rookies…ya sure he strikes out lots and has a low batting avg…but he produces! He has big time power numbers… Hosmer would have gotten it if he had more ABs IMO
Agreed. I think he’ll get the 5 AB’s, but it’s difficult to tell. For my purposes, I hope he graduates b/c trying to balance the great minor league stats w/ the less-than-great major league production will make Rizzo really difficult to value after the season!
Three games to go and Rizzo needs 5 AB’s.The Padres face three Righties so he may get them…..however Guzman is back healthy.Will be interesting to see if he holds on to his Prospect status for another year!
Sorry about the slow responses! I’ve been out of town at the Ole Miss-Georgia game, which was a great wknd even though Ole Miss lost.
That Trevor Story ranking is impressive, especially b/c you were promoting him several weeks ago. I’ve been impressed how good a job our commenters did mentioning most of the lesser-known prospects who fared well in BA’s league rankings (Drury, Phillips Castillo, Nicolino, Story, etc). Not sure what to make of Rizzo? Hopefully, he’ll bounce back next season but what sorts concerns me is this Buster Olney tweet from awhile back about his discussions w/ a scout who said he believed there could be bigger issues w/ Rizzo’s ability to hit more advanced pitching. It concerned me, but it’s WAY too early to write off Rizzo. Nice pickup on Perez. He’s definitely a solid sleeper when you consider the numbers he’s produced at a young age combined w/ the fact he should be able to receive an opportunity in KC.
Matusz’s decline is attributable to several issues, the biggest being a decline in velocity. Velocity was never Matusz’s strong point, but this year, it dropped to the point it makes it extremely difficult for a younger pitcher to succeed in the major leagues. In my opinion, whether he can bounce back depends on whether he can increase his velocity w/o adversely affecting other areas.
Interesting question on ROY, Geo. In the National League, I think the ROY will be from Atlanta and Kimbrel’s great season probably justifies giving him the award over Freeman. In the AL, I think three great candidates are Nova, Hellickson, and Pineda. Even though he didn’t play very long, I’d like to see Desmond Jennings get some consideration.
Good list for those last two picks, Tyrus. I think those pitchers are values pretty close together, but I would probably take Jungmann. Tough call on the hitter. Even though I left him off the Top 100, Liriano is growing on me to the point he seems like a pretty solid pick among that group.
Tyrus,
In reviewing a number of scouts discussions and keeper league cheat sheets for 2012, I have to believe Rymer Liriano, Ronald Torreyes, Keyvious Sampson have by far the highest ceilings of everyone on your list. The strides Liriano and Torreyes have made just in the past few months have been nothing short of impressive, and Sampson is going to be a stellar talent. I value the three of them extremely high, but I think you one could accept that Torreyes gets just a slightly better ranking due to position scarcity.
Okay guys I need some help. So I have two draft picks left in my draft. I’m unsure of who to pick. Although I have planned on picking one pitcher and one hitter. So here is who i’m considering:
Sonny Grey, P
Taylor Jungman, P
Joe Weiland, P
Oswaldo Arcia, OF
Matt Barnes, P
Jedd Gyorko, P
Keyvious Sampson, P
Jonathan Schoop, 2B/3B
Cory Spangenburg, 2B
Tyler Thornburg, P
Willy Peralta, P
Rymer Liriano, OF
Ronald Torreyes, 2B
Any advice at all would be helpful, thanks guys!!!
Hey Mark, Lawrie isn’t on the list because he has gotten 171 plate appearances in the majors, so he technically isn’t a prospect anymore
Is Brett Lawrie not on this list? Thought he was a top 10 talent
Hey Bradley,
Who do you think the MLB rookie of the years will be in the NL and AL? It is tough because there is no run away winner, but some pretty good stats, especially as closers!
AL
Nova (probably winner)
Walder (ERA is good, blew some save early)
Hosmer (above average but not great numbers)
NL
Kimbrel (46 save in a rookie season with a great ERA, probable winner)
Gee (high ERA, but 12 wins on a Mets team)
Worley (not enough starts but good record and numbers)
Freeman (Above average but not great numbers, KK’s too high)
I wish there would be consideration for Arencibia, but he won’t get a sniff at the top 3. As a catcher he has two roles not just numbers on offence, but how he has improved his defence and call the games for the Jays pitchers. His HR and RBI numbers are fantastic, but his AVG and KK rate is a fantasy killer!
I also just picked up C – Salvador Perez tonight and added him to my MLB roster… I was watching the video highlights of this guy and he looks wayyy solid! Hes only 20 years old and is a 6′3 catcher that has lots of tools. He only has 17 K’s in 125 ABs and is posting a .344/.381/.488 line as a rookie! Thats pretty solid.. any thoughts on this kid??
Trevor Story = BA’s #1 prospect in the Pioneer League….
Looks like this kid has been deemed legit by his peers. Im going to be taking a good look at him for my draft next spring.
I see Anthony Rizzo now has 123 MLB ABs now which leaves him 7 shy of no longer having prospect status with 6 games to go… if he should surpass 130 this year I would have to claim his as one of my 9 keepers or lose his rights… i know he’s struggled in his debut.. but I have a hunch on this guy. Would it be wise to hang onto him and try to move off guys like Utley, Chapman, Lester, Hanson for some future prospects and draft picks? PS — Im 100% sure Im keeping Moustakas! Kansas City is going to be a force to be reckoned with in the AL Central for the next 5 years.. no need to lose one of their up and coming big boppers. Boy do I wish I owned Hosmer though.. hes a freak!!!
Thanks,
Jed
This probably isnt the place for this…but what is going on with Brian Matusz??
Nah, I left Rizzo off the list b/c I assumed he exceeded 130 AB’s. He currently has 119 and I’m guessing he’ll get 11 more before the season is finished, but I should have listed him somewhere w/ a “*” (like Trout and Kipnis). I am really concerned about the major league performance so far, but I would still rank him somewhere in the second half of the Top 100.
Really interesting seeing that Drury ranking! BA’s league rankings are always interesting. If I remember correctly, they are based on people who observe the league closely rather than BA’s writers. In certain cases, the results will be a little surprising but they are also a great source for foreshadowing players who might be valued too high (or too low). For example, if I remember correctly, Wilmer Flores did not make the Top 20 prospects in one of his leagues last season? It was surprising at the time, but it revealed some concerns that many prospect followers were slower to recognize. I think it definitely confirms Drury deserves a spot somewhere on our Top 250 list.
Good thought re: Segura. He’s an interesting player b/c he received aggressive rankings coming into last year, and this season, the lack of performance was caused by an injury that is unlikely to have any long-term effects. The injury hurt his value to the extent it cost him some development time, but he’s a solid buy low candidate b/c there’s arguably no great reason the 2011 ranking should be substantially lower than 2010.
Is Anthony Rizzo missing from your list due to his performance at the major league level?
His performance at AAA would seem to warrant a top 100 ranking IMO.
What’s your take on this kid?
*Noah Syndergaard, not Rymer Liriano, sorry about that I was reading over the list to check to see who Drury was ranked over and was thinking about Liriano when I meant to type Syndergaard.
Interesting:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2011/2612384.html
They have Drury ranked above Tyrell Jenkins, Eddie Rosario, and Rymer Liriano
I know he missed most of the season, but I see Jean Segura being a better player than Profar. They are very similar though. Segura just needs to stay healthy!
Just looked more closely at those rosters. What is really impressive is-for the most part-all the owners have done a pretty good job acquiring prospects. It made me laugh seeing the farm system of the team called “Houston Astros.” No offense to Drayton, but part of me wishes that guy had owned the real Astros the past few seasons b/c it would be nice having Moore and Trout in the real world! Haha.
Got it! Very cool league! Those are always good to look at and helpful for the rankings. Thanks!
Hey Bradley,
Sent over the roster grids. Hopefully it worked, let me know.
Sounds like a really cool league! Is there a way to send a .PDF of the rosters? One of my tricks for trying to locate sleepers is to combine the rosters of a bunch of dynasty leagues. You can learn a lot by looking at the rosters in those really deep leagues, especially by learning about the obscure players the teams who have built the best farm systems are picking up.
If you can send it, it would be awesome! My email is rboneill@deepleagues.com.
Gentlemen,
I am in a deep keeper league (26 active mlb, 13 bench, and 50 minor leaguers per team – 20 teams) which started this year. Very active league. Due to time commitments, 3 owners are resigning so we have some vacancies. One of the teams made the playoffs this year and other two are loaded with young talent. These teams will be pooled for a new owner draft so you can customize your team the way you want. In addition other non-playoff teams may be able to throw in their teams into the pool and join the draft for a fee which would expand the draft pool further. If you are looking for a competitive fun league let me know. We are looking for some non-drama, competitive owners for the next year. Email me at mehoolio@aol.com and I can send you the rules and answer any questions as well. The league fee is $200 per year and all the money goes back as cash prizes. I would love to see some of you knowledgeable guys join us.
Partially agree w/ you. I think the three biggest breakout outfielders recently are Liriano, Taveras, and Rosario. All three are solid prospects, but at this point for fantasy purposes, the problem is the information is across the board. For example, there’s an interesting discussion on Sickels’ site w/ one poster saying he would value Tavares among the Top 20 prospects in baseball. But then, there was a BA chat recently where the writer didn’t sound convinced yet about ranking him as a top guy.
I think the same concept applies to Liriano. On one hand, the numbers clearly justify an aggressive ranking considering he posted huge stolen base totals and some power potential w/ plate discipline numbers that seem managable. On the other hand, the information about him is still limited enough that I’m reluctant to be too aggressive w/o some more information indicating there are no red flags we have not considered. I am definitely going to place him on our next Top 100 b/c those numbers justify his inclusion even I don’t know as much about him as I’d like. Realistically, I think he could easily be valued as high as #50 based on this season’s performance.