Here is a current update of our Top 100 prospects. I tried to project which players will graduate by the end of the season (50 IP’s or 130 AB’s), and placed a “*” next to several players with a good chance of graduating. It’s worth mentioning the rankings are estimates taken from our end of season rankings, and I put arrows next to some of the players I think we should consider putting higher or lower. The off-season will provide a good time to really evaluate the reasoning behind our rankings, and let us know which players y’all would rank higher or lower.
1. Bryce Harper—OF, Nationals
2. Mike Trout—OF, Angels*
3. Matt Moore—P, Rays
4. Julio Teheran—P, Braves
5. Shelby Miller—P, Cardinals
6. Gerrit Cole—P, Pirates
7. Jurickson Profar—SS, Rangers
8. Anthony Rendon—3B, Nationals
9. Jesus Montero—C, Yankees
10. Tyler Skaggs—P, Diamondbacks
11. Manny Machado—SS, Orioles
12. Dylan Bundy—P, Orioles
13. Devin Mesoraco—C, Reds
14. Danny Hultzen—P, Mariners
15. Jameson Taillon—P, Pirates ↓
16. Bubba Starling—OF, Royals
17. Robbie Erlin—P, Padres ↓
18. Jacob Turner—P, Tigers
19. Drew Pomeranz—P, Rockies
20. Trevor Bauer—P, Diamondbacks
21. Miguel Sano—3B, Twins
22. Yonder Alonso—1B/OF, Reds
23. Martin Perez—P, Rangers
24. Manny Banuelos—P, Yankees
25. Jason Kipnis—2B, Indians*
26. Brett Jackson—OF, Cubs ↓
27. Carlos Martinez—P, Cardinals
28. Randall Delgado—P, Braves
29. Taijuan Walker—P, Mariners
30. Travis D’Arnaud—C, Blue Jays
31. Jarrod Parker—P, Diamondbacks ↓
32. Arodys Vizcaino—P, Braves
33. Jake Odorizzi—P, Royals ↓
34. Leonys Martin—OF, Rangers
35. Gary Brown—OF, Giants
36. Wil Myers—OF, Royals ↓
37. Zach Wheeler—P, Mets
38. Nolan Arenado—3B, Rockies
39. Hak-Ju Lee—SS, Rays ↓
40. Matt Harvey—P, Mets
41. Zach Lee—P, Dodgers ↓
42. Archie Bradley—P, Diamondbacks
43. Jonathan Singleton—1B, Astros
44. Dellin Betances—P, Yankees
45. Billy Hamilton—2B/SS, Reds
46. George Springer—OF, Astros
47. Zach Cox—3B, Cardinals
48. Brad Peacock—P, Nationals
49. Jarred Cosart—P, Astros
50. Casey Kelly—P, Padres ↓
51. Deck McGuire—P, Blue Jays
52. Yasmani Grandal—C, Reds
53. Michael Choice—OF, Athletics
54. Sonny Gray—P, Athletics
55. Taylor Jungmann—P, Brewers
56. Jean Segura—2B, Angels
57. Joe Wieland—P, Padres
58. Nick Franklin—SS, Mariners
59. AJ Cole—P, Nationals ↓
60. Christian Yelich—OF, Marlins ↑
61. Francisco Lindor—SS, Indians ↑
62. Liam Hendriks—P, Twins
63. Jake Marisnick—OF, Blue Jays
64. Mike Montgomery—P, Royals ↓
65. Oswaldo Arcia—OF, Twins ↑
66. Drew Hutchison—P, Blue Jays ↑
67. Nathan Eovaldi—P, Dodgers* ↑
68. Wilin Rosario—C, Rockies ↓
69. Garrett Richards—P, Angels ↓
70. Nick Castellanos—3B, Tigers ↓
71. Trevor May—P, Phillies ↑
72. James Paxton—P, Mariners ↑
73. Alexander Colome—P, Rays
74. Matt Barnes—P, Red Sox
75. Jedd Gyorko—3B, Padres
76. James Darnell—3B, Padres
77. Oscar Taveras—OF, Cardinals ↑
78. Gary Sanchez—C, Yankees
79. Aaron Hicks—OF, Twins
80. Keyvious Sampson—P, Padres
81. Will Middlebrooks—3B, Red Sox ↑
82. Nestor Molina—P, Blue Jays ↑
83. Bryce Brentz—OF, Red Sox
84. Alexander Torres—P, Rays
85. Chris Archer—P, Rays
86. Alex White—P, Rockies
87. Joshua Bell—OF, Pirates ↑
88. Allen Webster—P, Dodgers
89. Anthony Gose—OF, Blue Jays ↑
90. Matt Dominguez—3B, Marlins
91. Starling Marte—OF, Pirates
92. Jeurys Familia—P, Mets
93. Eric Surkamp—P, Giants
94. Chad Bettis—P, Rockies
95. Jonathan Schoop—2B, Orioles ↑
96. Kolten Wong—2B, Cardinals ↑
97. Tyrell Jenkins—P, Cardinals ↑
98. Jed Bradley—P, Brewers
99. Javier Baez—SS, Cubs ↑
100. Cheslor Cuthbert—3B, Royals ↑
Possible snubs: Cody Buckel (P, Rangers), Corey Spangenberg (2B, Padres), Tim Wheeler (OF, Rockies). Tyler Thornburg (P, Brewers), Wily Peralta (P, Brewers), Noah Syndergaard (P, Blue Jays), Eddie Rosario (OF, Twins), Rymer Liriano (OF, Padres).
Really think Rymer Liriano is getting short changed on most lists I have seen. He had a huge break out year and hit like .700 in the playoffs.
Very good stuff! I’ll definitely learn more about him! I was liking Bichette’s GCL numbers, but in one of his chats, Keith Law made a good point re: taking the early GCL numbers w/ a grain of salt and focus on the scouting reports. It’ll be interesting to see BA’s GCL rankings, which should be released pretty soon.
The Yankees have an interesting group of young hitters in their system w/ Sanchez, Williams, Gumbs, Culver, Bichette, and now Santana. I’ve never quite understood the reasoning for why the Yankees aren’t a little more willing to put some of their huge resources into totally cornering the market for amateur talent (especially internationally) b/c-as the current group gets older-it seems like it’s a minimal cost to greatly increase chances of the dynasty continuing for the next 10 to 15 years. At the same, I’m not convinced they aren’t following a strategy that will ultimately work out alright. If they can develop those guys properly, the hitting in their system will look much tougher in 2-3 years.
He’s very toolsy and has a lot of comps to Xander Boagerts. Most scouts think that they are very similar in talent.
Yeah, Baltimore has been struggling for years! As a ‘stros fan, Baltimore makes me nervous b/c I’ve always thought there are many similarities between the Astros’ mistakes and mistakes Baltimore made about 10 years earlier. These last two years have been particularly frustrating for Baltimore b/c I thought they had a shot of improving. Among other things, the main problem is their young pitchers (Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, etc) underperformed. At this point, I think they’ve gotta put huge efforts into restocking their farm system and realize rebuilding is a frustrating process.
What’s the story on Ravel Santana? I am probably slow on this one, but the only prospect from the Yankees’ GCL team I know much about is Bichette.
Hasn’t Baltimore been rebuilding for, like, 10 years?
Don’t forget about my boy Ravel Santana. Best player in the GCL.
Very good research, Mehul! I think Santana was definitely a great pickup for the ’stros. If he can make moderate improvements to the plate discipline totals, he could become really valuable. I also like Torreyes. Even though he is undersized, it’s hard to ignore this season’s production and he turned out to be a great suggestion for the Top 250 list (you were definitely mentioning Torreyes before he was getting much attention elsewhere).
Great list, Jed! I’ve always stayed away from using early picks on catching prospects also. In addition to the limited production, I’ve always had a tougher time determining which catchers will develop into productive major league hitters. I am not sure the data justifies that catching prospects are more speculative, but awhile back, John Sickels did a good article about the track record of catching prospects.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/1/23/734228/the-recent-history-of-catc
2006-2011 only players in a ball at age 18 to have ops above .800:
MWL:
Mike Trout – studly
Randal Grichuk – injury hurt him, will see how he does over full season
Ronald Torreyes – producing with the elite
SAL:
Mike stanton – studly
Jason Heyward – studly
Jesus Montero – studly
Freddie Freeman – studly
xander boegaerts – looks to be a top 100 spect
manny machado – probably stud, top 15 spect
bryce harper – probable stud, top 5 spect
matt dominguez – top 100 spect
domingo santana – maybe should be a top 100 spect
jurickson profar – probable stud, top 15 spect
Two things stick out to me
A) MWL might be more of a challenge for hitters than SAL
B) This is a good indicator of prospect studs and ronald torreyes especially and also domingo santana are in some elite company but do not get a lot of love for some reason
Heres my top 10 projected prospects by the end of 2012…
1) Profar
C.Martinez
2) Bundy
3) Starling
4) Cole
5) Sano
6) Taillon
7) Rendon
9) Machado
10) Hultzen
Its very possible players like Rendon and Hultzen could reach the majors next year.. but I dont see them getting in enough time to surpass their prosepect status… Whats everyone elses thoughts??
Im a big fan of D’Arnaud and in fact I would have him higher than Mesoraco, Grandal, and Gary Sanchez…
But is it really wise to draft a catcher prospect in a dynasty league?? The best you are going to get from a catcher is a .300-20-80 season such Mauer did.. and I surely dont see Mauer potential in D’Arnaud or any rising catcher prospect. Catchers are not supppose to make it to the bigs because of their bats.. its primarily a defensive position and last I checked you dont get fantasy points for throwing out base stealers. Its just my opinion but I wouldnt draft D’Arnaud or any catching prospect over a young pitcher or position player.. Any one else agree with this??
Great mention…I’m a huge Ryan Brett fan. Back in February, I placed him on my list of sleeper prospects.
http://www.deepleagues.com/?p=2714
Assuming you don’t count University of Wisconsin Football, Brett had the best season of any of the 2B sleepers we listed. But at this point, I think my plan is to place him on my sleeper list again next season rather than put him on the prospect list.
Rays minor leaguer, pure “GRIT” Ryan Brett
FYI, some interesting discussion/feedback re: the list on minor league ball.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/9/14/2425575/top-100-prospects-september-2011
The feedback has been helpful, and on the whole, the response was pretty positive. Some interesting thoughts were…
1. D’Arnaud higher (most people on there said Top 20)
2. Marte higher (not sure I agree, but it’s a good thought);
3. Less separation between Hultzen and Cole.
4. Less separation between Starling and Bell.
5. Players suggested: Rymer Liriano (probably agree), Mike Olt, Boagerts, and the frequently-discussed Matt Adams.
I’m thinking 2013 also. The big question is whether they decide to start him in AA next season. It seems like the better move would be to send him back to A+ next season w/ a midseason promotion to AA once the numbers improve. Assuming the season goes well, probably have him start 2013 in AAA w/ a June callup? I think there’s a good chance Machado would do just fine starting next season in AA, but since Baltimore is rebuilding, it makes sense to not take a risk and be patient w/ Machado b/c the downside of promoting him too soon is greater than the upside he’ll give Baltimore next season.
“I could still see Machado as a post-June 1 callup if the O’s are dead in the water again.”
Maybe in 2013….but certainly not in 2012.
I could still see Machado as a post-June 1 callup if the O’s are dead in the water again.
can i provide you with recorded stats by email?
Not trying to be discourteous or anything, but I’m probably not the right person to help. This site focuses on dynasty leagues—and since Walton has no recorded statistics—it probably would not be a good dynasty league pickup at this point.
Good luck to Walton though!
would you do an under the radar feature on 2nd basemen prospect montaous walton? he has been productive over the summer in extended spring he is now heading to fall ball
Like those suggestions, Jed! I especially think it might not be a terrible idea to remove Darnell (or maybe Dominguez) in favor of Xander Boagerts or Eddie Rosario.
I noticed the same thing re: Machado. I noticed the recent numbers but I am not particularly concerned b/c I think they were caused by the combination of an injury and an aggressive promotion. At this point, I think it indicates those occasional early-season projections of Machado arriving in the major leagues next season were not realistic. But ideally, I’d love to see him get off to a quick start next season!
Anybody have any thoughts on Machado? He looked horrible after the injury and the call up to A+. I have him in a Dynasty League and Im starting to worry.
Josh Bell has high upside but they
Im taking off: familia, surkamp, Webster, molina, and Darnell
Im adding: buckel, campos, bogaerts, pimentel, and eddie Rosario
I also like spangenberg more than I like eovaldi and others on this list..
Agreed. I really like the fact he is a solid all-around hitter w/ respectable speed. If y’all were to remove five players from the top 100, who would you remove?
Getting some good suggestions over on the minorleagueball comment board. Two suggestions I really liked are: (1) McGuire should not rank higher than those other Jays prospects and (2) there should be less separation between Starling and Bell. Some of their suggestions for the Top 100 are Mason Williams, Syndergaard, Boagerts, and Matt Adams.
Spangenberg belongs near the bottom of the list, but he should be ahead of some of the guys in the late 80s to mid 90s. He really hit the ground running, and has shined since getting his sea legs at AA.
FYI, went ahead and placed the Top 100 on minorleagueball.com. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of feedback it gets on there…
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/9/14/2425575/top-100-prospects-september-2011
Was reading about Buckel. The guy had a great season and the Rangers made a great move getting him for only $590k….the 11.2 strikeout/9 rate is pretty awesome meaning not having him Top 100 is questionable.
Cosart looks a little high. One reason I like Cosart is he performed reasonably well despite the decline in his strikeout rate, and based on his stuff (98 mph fastball), his strikeout rate should be able to improve. I think the Astros Top 3 are Springer, Singleton, and Cosart. But maybe there is more distance between those prospects than indicated by this list?
Not sure about Trevor Story. Was just reading about him, and there’s a lot to like for the supplemental round. Then again, those HS infielders are tough to pick. At this point last year, I really liked Lipka and Littlewood who didn’t take off as much their first season as I would have liked. I really like Lindor, but was not sure where to value him. My thought is his value significantly less than Machado coming into last season, but based on where we ranked Machado (around #20), I’m not convinced Lindor should be 10-15 spots higher. I’m also thinking Joshua Bell offers too much upside to be ranked #87.
Sorry..buckel not nickel
Love the list Brad! I also agree that nickel needed to make the top 100… another guy who is going to be a fast riser next season is Jose Campos! Kolten Wong maybe should be higher.. I think he has a batting title in his future.. what are your thoughts on francisco lindor ..is he the next jose reuse type shortstop? And what about shortstop Trevor Story who the rockies drafted this year… im high on both lindor and story just want a 2ndI opinion
That Jarred Cosart ranking looks a little high for a guy w/ such a K rate dip and BB rate spike this year.
I’m a huge Erlin fan also. Through his minor league career, he now has 288 strikeouts and 34 walks! Assuming Erlin continues to pitch well, I think he has a great chance to reach San Diego next season. One problem is San Diego has a few starters who theoretically might be ready for a promotion next season (Wieland, Erlin, Castro, Kelly, and Oramas). I’m 50/50 whether he’ll start next season in AA or AAA, but if his 2012 numbers remain close to his 2011 stats, I’m reasonably confident he’ll make his debut sometime next summer.
Oops meant AA for Erlin.
Erlin’s stats are ridiculous at AAA and he’ll pitch in PETCO. He should stay where he is. And what’s his ETA btw?
Agreed re: Taillon, Joe. At the same time, from a fantasy perspective, I always have a tough time buying into players when their abilities are not supported by the numbers. At the same time, Taillon’s numbers ended up alright this season. For example, 97 k’s and 22 b’s over 92 innings gives lots of reason for optimism.
@Muhel: Why not Matt Moore? I know he only moved up about 8-10 spots but he went from a high strikeout/#2-3 starter to a potential ace/Clayton Kershaw mold. Even though he only moved from 10 to top 3, it was an extreme jump in how his future looks. Otherwise, I might go with Profar. Erlin is a nice choice as well.
@Bradley: My opinion on Taillon is like that of Martin Perez in that no matter what he stats say, he is superbly electric and will be a great great pitcher in the big leagues. I still have him pegged at #6.
Interesting thread on John Sickels’ site called “under the radar” prospects.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/9/10/2416940/under-the-radar-prospects
Generally speaking, we did a pretty good job discussing many of these players. (with lots of help from the comment board!). One guy we never discussed too much is Robbie Grossman. How would y’all value him?
Good question, Mehul. I’d say most of the fastest risers this season were pitchers (Erlin, Walker, Martinez, Peacock, Wieland, Hutchinson, Molina).
Among the hitters, all the major breakouts were pretty well-known coming into the season (Profar, D’Arnaud, Gary Brown, Brentz was surprising but at the same time well-known in college).
Skaggs belongs in top 10. WHo do you guys think has been the highest rising prospect in 2011? Joe Wieland? Skaggs? Erlin?
Thanks y’all! Glad the list is looking alright so far. The off-season will definitely provide time to make some adjustments b/c there’s always new information about the prospects (better scouting reports, AFL performance, and adjustments to the reasoning).
I could easily throw Buckel in the Top 100. He’s pitched well this season and the reports have been really positive. I’m becoming a bigger fan of Yelich. I think K-Law made a great call putting him in his midseason Top 50. He has solid power numbers w/ reasonable plate discipline. It’s also a nice bonus that he offers some stolen base potential.
It’s tough deciding where to place Skaggs. To me, the only major question is whether not having a huge fastball will keep him from being a top-of-the-rotation starter. At the same time, I like that it would really surprise me if he was not at least somewhat successful in the major leagues.
Familia is a pitcher in the Mets organization known for his great fastball. When he has control, he can be dominating. He made a solid transition to AA, but in my opinion, there are enough concerns that he’s a borderline Top 100 guy? Surkamp was great in the minor leagues. Since he doesn’t have an overpowering fastball, the question is whether those numbers will translate in the major leagues.
Random question: what do y’all think of Aaron Hicks in the Top 100? I’m 50/50. He has great tools, but the numbers are still not there. Is he better as a guy who ranks lower w/ the potential to jump him if the numbers improve?
I’d just swap Bundy with Skaggs. Other than that, looks good. There’s always snubs and I’d love to see Buckel sneak in there but a good list as always. Hopefully Geo’s taking the steps to join our league soon.
Really like Christian Yelich. Do you think he can start next year in the top 50? And what do you think his ETA is? Any MLB comparisons?
Thanks.
Not to make this only about skaggs but the kid is only 20 and could add some velocity still as his frame fills out some more. He is for sure a top 10-15 prospect right now. I have a feeling he will get a pretty long look at the big league rotation this spring.
I really like Skaggs ranking, I think it’s fine. I just want to point out, where you put a down arrow were some of the prospects I have on my minor league system on my only fantsy team (Lee, Kelly,Rosario, Tallion, Myers) which makes me think my minor league roster is less spectacular than it is.
Anywho, I believe Buckel and Liriano deserve a spot on the Top 100. A couple other names I would throw out there for discussion are Matt Szczur and Kaleb Cowart. Although I would understand if neither would put on.
Players I believe should definaltly be bumped up in the rankings are Wong, Schoop, Gyorko and Middlebrooks.
I’m concerned with Matt Dominguez and Eric Surkamp however. I’m not entirely sold that they will be able to perform at the major league level.
One final remark is what type of celing do Starling Marte and Jeurys Familia have? I haven’t tracked either prospect much but I’m thinking they would be great grabs in my draft. Also, my gut feeling says both prospects will rise in next year’s rankings.
Agreed. Skaggs was really impressive this season. At this point, my only concern ranking him Top 10 is how not having elite fastball velocity will affect his strikeout rates in the major leagues. In addition to their mlb guys, Arizona is building a nice collection of pitching depth in their system w/ Skaggs, Bauer, Parker, and Bradley.
I don’t see a problem with where Skaggs is at. Kid improved with the jump to AA.
Good suggestion. What about Skaggs at around #17 (where I ranked Erlin) and then Erlin somewhere in the mid-20’s?
Agree with Joe, that’s really high for Skaggs. Good prospect, but not THAT good. Too high for Erlin too, as pitchers go.
Like the suggestions, Joe. How do you think this season affected Taillon’s value? My thought is his value pretty much remained stable. By season’s end, the numbers were not too bad (92 IP’s, 97 K’s, 22 BB’s, and 3.98 ERA) even though it’s a little disappointing not to get a huge breakout in year #1.
Agreed the talent pool on the 2012 list is looking strong! The 2011 draft class added tons of talent and several pretty big names will not graduate. My thought is the 2012 talent pool is stronger than last season, but not as strong as 2010.
Give me Bundy, Machado and Taillon and even Bauer over Skaggs… but great list… what a loaded top half even with all of the graduations.