The following is version #1 of our Top 100 prospects for 2012. Last week, we posted our updated Top 100 list on minorleagueball to get some feedback re: our rankings going into the offseason, and after receiving some feedback, it convinced me the rankings are close enough to publish a first version of the 2012 list.
The rankings are still estimates, and during the off-season, we will go much deeper ranking the top prospects position-by-position. After we finish the positional rankings, we will publish an updated Top 100 where the prospects will be ranked differently. However, before starting positional rankings, I thought it would be fun to publish an initial Top 100 showing how we value the players heading into the off-season.
1. Bryce Harper—OF, Nationals
2. Matt Moore—P, Rays (+1)
3. Mike Trout—OF, Angels
4. Julio Teheran—P, Braves
5. Shelby Miller—P, Cardinals
6. Gerrit Cole—P, Pirates
7. Jurickson Profar—SS, Rangers
8. Anthony Rendon—3B, Nationals
9. Jesus Montero—C, Yankees
10. Tyler Skaggs—P, Diamondbacks
11. Manny Machado—SS, Orioles
12. Devin Mesoraco—C, Reds
13. Trevor Bauer—P, Diamondbacks (+5)
14. Danny Hultzen—P, Mariners
15. Dylan Bundy—P, Orioles (-3)
16. Jameson Taillon—P, Pirates
17. Jacob Turner—P, Tigers
18. Drew Pomeranz—P, Rockies
19. Miguel Sano—3B, Twins
20. Yonder Alonso—1B/OF, Reds
21. Robbie Erlin—P, Padres (-5)
22. Martin Perez—P, Rangers
23. Manny Banuelos—P, Yankees
24. Travis D’Arnaud—C, Blue Jays (+4)
25. Bubba Starling—OF, Royals (-8)
26. Carlos Martinez—P, Cardinals
27. Randall Delgado—P, Braves
28. Taijuan Walker—P, Mariners
29. Brett Jackson—OF, Cubs (-4)
30. Jarrod Parker—P, Diamondbacks
31. Arodys Vizcaino—P, Braves
32. Jake Odorizzi—P, Royals
33. Leonys Martin—OF, Rangers
34. Gary Brown—OF, Giants
35. Zach Wheeler—P, Mets
36. Nolan Arenado—3B, Rockies
37. Hak-Ju Lee—SS, Rays
38. Matt Harvey—P, Mets
39. Archie Bradley—P, Diamondbacks
40. Jonathan Singleton—1B, Astros
41. Dellin Betances—P, Yankees
42. Wil Myers—OF, Royals (-8)
43. Billy Hamilton—2B/SS, Reds
44. George Springer—OF, Astros
45. Zach Cox—3B, Cardinals
46. Brad Peacock—P, Nationals
47. Yasmani Grandal—C, Reds
48. Joe Wieland—P, Padres (+4)
49. Zach Lee—P, Dodgers (-12)
50. Michael Choice—OF, Athletics
51. Nick Franklin—SS, Mariners (+5)
52. Sonny Gray—P, Athletics
53. Taylor Jungmann—P, Brewers
54. Jean Segura—2B, Angels
55. Jarred Cosart—P, Astros (-5)
56. Casey Kelly—P, Padres (-5)
57. AJ Cole—P, Nationals
58. Christian Yelich—OF, Marlins
59. Francisco Lindor—SS, Indians
60. Liam Hendriks—P, Twins
61. Jake Marisnick—OF, Blue Jays
62. Mike Montgomery—P, Royals
63. Oswaldo Arcia—OF, Twins
64. Deck McGuire—P, Blue Jays (-14)
65. Drew Hutchison—P, Blue Jays
66. Nathan Eovaldi—P, Dodgers
67. Garrett Richards—P, Angels
68. Nick Castellanos—3B, Tigers
69. Trevor May—P, Phillies
70. Oscar Taveras—OF, Cardinals (+5)
71. Alexander Colome—P, Rays
72. Joshua Bell—OF, Pirates (+14)
73. Matt Barnes—P, Red Sox
74. Gary Sanchez—C, Yankees (+4)
75. Anthony Rizzo—1B, Padres
76. Jedd Gyorko—3B, Padres
77. Wilin Rosario—C, Rockies (-7)
78. James Paxton—P, Mariners (-7)
79. Aaron Hicks—OF, Twins
80. Keyvious Sampson—P, Padres
81. Anthony Gose—OF, Blue Jays (+8)
82. Will Middlebrooks—3B, Red Sox
83. Nestor Molina—P, Blue Jays
84. Bryce Brentz—OF, Red Sox
85. Alexander Torres—P, Rays
86. Chris Archer—P, Rays
87. Alex White—P, Rockies
88. Allen Webster—P, Dodgers
89. Rymer Liriano—OF, Padres (new)
90. Starling Marte—OF, Pirates
91. James Darnell—3B, Padres (-14)
92. Jeurys Familia—P, Mets
93. Chad Bettis—P, Rockies
94. Jonathan Schoop—2B, Orioles
95. Kolten Wong—2B, Cardinals
96. Tyrell Jenkins—P, Cardinals
97. Matt Dominguez—3B, Marlins (-7)
98. Jed Bradley—P, Brewers
99. Javier Baez—SS, Cubs
100. Cheslor Cuthbert—3B, Royals
Also considered: Corey Spangenberg—2B, Padres, Eddie Rosario—OF, Twins, Mason Williams—OF, Yankees, Noah Snydergaard—P, Blue Jays, Justin Nicolino—P, Blue Jays, Tim Wheeler—OF, Rockies, Cody Buckel—P, Rangers, Matt Szczur—OF, Cubs, Wily Peralta—P, Brewers, Tyler Thornburg—P, Brewers
So you say wait on cespedes?? MLB.com just released their top 100..
Yonder Alonso at 39? Rizzo at 37? I own both of these guys. Are those rankings accurate?
Jameson Taillon number 8 with an ETA of 2013. worth looking into?
How good is trevor bauer supposed to be? Hultzen?
Will Drew Pomeranz be as good as they are pretending he is, even though he’s in colorado?
Arodys vizcaino and carlos carrasco worth keeping in a dynasty league? What about…. yoshi nishioka (got killed by trading for him)
1. Darvish
2. Profar
3. Rendon
4. Cole
5. Cespedas
In a sixteen team dynasty league, who should I take out of the players not currently listed on yahoo’s player database? Examples: Yu Darvish, Anthony Rendon, Gerrit Cole, Yeonnis Cespedes, Jurickson Profar
I already have Matt Moore, Shelby Miller, Mike Montgomery, Devin Mesorocko, Stephen Strasburg, Jared Weaver just to name a few.
Guerrieri can make a case for the Top 100. He definitely offers huge upside! At this point, part of the reason I omitted him from the list is lack of experience.
Among last year’s HS pitchers, Bundy and Bradley were the two I thought offered enough upside to be placed directly on the Top 100 list. I rank Guerrieri among that next group of HS pitchers from last year’s draft who offer substantial upside but probably need a little more info before ranking them in the Top 100 (guys like Fernandez, Daniel Norris, etc).
I’m kinda shocked Taylor Guerrieri isn’t on this list. He’s got similar potential as Strasburg, but developed it at a younger age. I also don’t think he will be as injury prone as Strasburg. Everyone agrees Guerrieri has the ceiling to be a top 5 prospect so why he’s completely omitted from the top 100 list is nothing short of amazing. Plus he’s a Rays prospect and Rays pitching prospects tend to always deliver.
Why is Montero so low? He hit well for the Yankees last year and the DH job is his to lose I say he’ll hit like Heyward did his rookie year. .280 avg. 20 Hrs and 70 rbi. Ribbies would be higher if Granderson, Tex, and Cano weren’t a lock for 100. Then if Arod’s German surgery goes well we’ll push 100. Swisher 80. So with that much protection I think Montero will thrive.
Totally agree the weakest positions are starting pitcher and second base. Other than that, it looks like a team that could be ready to compete pretty soon! One good thing is Eddie Rosario is slated to switch to 2B, so even though he’s awhile away, you have another prospect at that position.
An interesting question is whether you should try to win this season? One option is trying to work a major trade to acquire a “big name” starting pitcher. The problem is, at this point, your best long term trade chips are Longoria, McCutcheon, Hosmer and Heyward. It always depends on the return value, but now does not seem like the right time to trade any of those players.
Even if you theoretically might be able to compete, I would probably focus on trying to build for 2013. A lot of your best players are still young, and since it’s your first year, building for another season will allow you to become more familiar w/ the league’s rules. I would look into swapping Jeter/Rollins/Hunter for younger players assuming you can get the right deal.
The trick will be improving the pitching? Since you’d like to compete by 2013, I think the primary focus should be trying to pickup several younger pitchers who can make a short term impact. Perhaps deals where you improve the quality of your starting pitching by packaging an average starters and one of your older hitters?
Looks like an awesome expansion team and I think they’ll do really well!
Brad,
What do you think of this team?? This is my new team (so far..as we are still in the progress of drafting) in Mehul’s 20 team league. I know I have some improvements to make at certain positions but all in all I think my team is fairly solid and heading in the right direction for the future. Would you agree with me that my weakest spots are at 2B and SP?
C – Salvador Perez, Will Swanner
1B – Eric Hosmer
2B – Jonathan Herrera, Jonathan Schoop
SS – Jimmy Rollins, Derek Jeter, Jurickson Profar
3B – Evan Longoria, Xander Bogaerts, Edward Salcedo, Renato Nunez
OF – Jason Heyward, Andrew McCutchen, Ben Revere, Torii Hunter, Ravel Santana, Eddie Rosario
SP – Matt Garza, Travis Wood, Jeanmar Gomez, Tommy Hunter, Aaron Harang, Kyle Kendrick, Taijuan Walker, Paul Clemens
RP – Drew Storen, Mike Adams
Thanks,
Jed
I have trouble thinking of ways teams can beat the new system b/c-to be honest-I am still not totally familiar w/ the little details re: how the system works.
An obvious way a team could try to beat the system is by offering a player some form of compensation that cannot be characterized as a signing bonus. But this will be hard b/c the new rules eliminate major league contracts where a large portion of the bonus could be paid as salary.
I guarantee the most clever teams (Rays, Blue Jays, Rangers, etc) and Scott Boras are already thinking of ways to get around the new CBA. What bothers me is it’s already amazing these teams can compete w/ the largest markets, and major league baseball should be trying to find ways to make it easier (not harder) for these teams to compete.
Here is the flaw in the new CBA draft…
So here is the plan. Jays GM will potentially pick up 5 extra compansation picks if all four FA’s sign elsewhere. He will then proceed to use an inflated draft cap (because of the addiional picks)to sign high risk picks. In other words he will add picks to add money, with no intention signing the player taken with the pick, but using the money alotted for that pick to sign another high risk blue chip prospect. The picks will be used strictly to top-up their draft ‘allowance’. Thats one way to abuse the system.
Anyone think of any other ways?
Totally agree it will make it tougher on small market teams, which is what baseball should be trying to avoid. If there was a cap on the payroll of a team’s major league roster, I would have no problem w/ placing limits on what teams could spend on amateurs. It’s especially frustrating because I think the new system will be a disaster for the ‘stros because the limits will go into effect at the exact time the team desperately needs an influx of amateur talent.
I think the reason for the change is amateur players have no real representation in negotiating the CBA. But regardless, baseball should realize the new system has the potential to have negative effects b/c allowing teams to build aggressively through the farm system is the best way to compete w/ big market teams on a limited payroll.
What do you think of the new CBA? I like some aspects of it, but there are large restrictions on teams wanting to rebuild IMO. Less compensation for teams losing FA is not good, keeps those talent feeding teams like the Pirates, TB, Royals, Oakland and others at a large disadvantage to rebuild. At least the trading deadline will be more interesting!!
I’d like to copy a quote from Scott Boras haha:”If I’m a person interested in buying a major league team, I believe I’m going to not be as anxious to provide an aggressive price because my ability to improve myself through scouting and development has been severely restrained,” Boras said.
Boras is just p’d off because of the draft salary caps!!
Your thoughts Bradley?