The following is version #1 of our Top 100 prospects for 2012. Last week, we posted our updated Top 100 list on minorleagueball to get some feedback re: our rankings going into the offseason, and after receiving some feedback, it convinced me the rankings are close enough to publish a first version of the 2012 list.
The rankings are still estimates, and during the off-season, we will go much deeper ranking the top prospects position-by-position. After we finish the positional rankings, we will publish an updated Top 100 where the prospects will be ranked differently. However, before starting positional rankings, I thought it would be fun to publish an initial Top 100 showing how we value the players heading into the off-season.
1. Bryce Harper—OF, Nationals
2. Matt Moore—P, Rays (+1)
3. Mike Trout—OF, Angels
4. Julio Teheran—P, Braves
5. Shelby Miller—P, Cardinals
6. Gerrit Cole—P, Pirates
7. Jurickson Profar—SS, Rangers
8. Anthony Rendon—3B, Nationals
9. Jesus Montero—C, Yankees
10. Tyler Skaggs—P, Diamondbacks
11. Manny Machado—SS, Orioles
12. Devin Mesoraco—C, Reds
13. Trevor Bauer—P, Diamondbacks (+5)
14. Danny Hultzen—P, Mariners
15. Dylan Bundy—P, Orioles (-3)
16. Jameson Taillon—P, Pirates
17. Jacob Turner—P, Tigers
18. Drew Pomeranz—P, Rockies
19. Miguel Sano—3B, Twins
20. Yonder Alonso—1B/OF, Reds
21. Robbie Erlin—P, Padres (-5)
22. Martin Perez—P, Rangers
23. Manny Banuelos—P, Yankees
24. Travis D’Arnaud—C, Blue Jays (+4)
25. Bubba Starling—OF, Royals (-8)
26. Carlos Martinez—P, Cardinals
27. Randall Delgado—P, Braves
28. Taijuan Walker—P, Mariners
29. Brett Jackson—OF, Cubs (-4)
30. Jarrod Parker—P, Diamondbacks
31. Arodys Vizcaino—P, Braves
32. Jake Odorizzi—P, Royals
33. Leonys Martin—OF, Rangers
34. Gary Brown—OF, Giants
35. Zach Wheeler—P, Mets
36. Nolan Arenado—3B, Rockies
37. Hak-Ju Lee—SS, Rays
38. Matt Harvey—P, Mets
39. Archie Bradley—P, Diamondbacks
40. Jonathan Singleton—1B, Astros
41. Dellin Betances—P, Yankees
42. Wil Myers—OF, Royals (-8)
43. Billy Hamilton—2B/SS, Reds
44. George Springer—OF, Astros
45. Zach Cox—3B, Cardinals
46. Brad Peacock—P, Nationals
47. Yasmani Grandal—C, Reds
48. Joe Wieland—P, Padres (+4)
49. Zach Lee—P, Dodgers (-12)
50. Michael Choice—OF, Athletics
51. Nick Franklin—SS, Mariners (+5)
52. Sonny Gray—P, Athletics
53. Taylor Jungmann—P, Brewers
54. Jean Segura—2B, Angels
55. Jarred Cosart—P, Astros (-5)
56. Casey Kelly—P, Padres (-5)
57. AJ Cole—P, Nationals
58. Christian Yelich—OF, Marlins
59. Francisco Lindor—SS, Indians
60. Liam Hendriks—P, Twins
61. Jake Marisnick—OF, Blue Jays
62. Mike Montgomery—P, Royals
63. Oswaldo Arcia—OF, Twins
64. Deck McGuire—P, Blue Jays (-14)
65. Drew Hutchison—P, Blue Jays
66. Nathan Eovaldi—P, Dodgers
67. Garrett Richards—P, Angels
68. Nick Castellanos—3B, Tigers
69. Trevor May—P, Phillies
70. Oscar Taveras—OF, Cardinals (+5)
71. Alexander Colome—P, Rays
72. Joshua Bell—OF, Pirates (+14)
73. Matt Barnes—P, Red Sox
74. Gary Sanchez—C, Yankees (+4)
75. Anthony Rizzo—1B, Padres
76. Jedd Gyorko—3B, Padres
77. Wilin Rosario—C, Rockies (-7)
78. James Paxton—P, Mariners (-7)
79. Aaron Hicks—OF, Twins
80. Keyvious Sampson—P, Padres
81. Anthony Gose—OF, Blue Jays (+8)
82. Will Middlebrooks—3B, Red Sox
83. Nestor Molina—P, Blue Jays
84. Bryce Brentz—OF, Red Sox
85. Alexander Torres—P, Rays
86. Chris Archer—P, Rays
87. Alex White—P, Rockies
88. Allen Webster—P, Dodgers
89. Rymer Liriano—OF, Padres (new)
90. Starling Marte—OF, Pirates
91. James Darnell—3B, Padres (-14)
92. Jeurys Familia—P, Mets
93. Chad Bettis—P, Rockies
94. Jonathan Schoop—2B, Orioles
95. Kolten Wong—2B, Cardinals
96. Tyrell Jenkins—P, Cardinals
97. Matt Dominguez—3B, Marlins (-7)
98. Jed Bradley—P, Brewers
99. Javier Baez—SS, Cubs
100. Cheslor Cuthbert—3B, Royals
Also considered: Corey Spangenberg—2B, Padres, Eddie Rosario—OF, Twins, Mason Williams—OF, Yankees, Noah Snydergaard—P, Blue Jays, Justin Nicolino—P, Blue Jays, Tim Wheeler—OF, Rockies, Cody Buckel—P, Rangers, Matt Szczur—OF, Cubs, Wily Peralta—P, Brewers, Tyler Thornburg—P, Brewers
Very well said, Kevin. Subjectively, it would not surprise me if Arenado becomes the better player. But at this point, I would pick Lawrie based on last season’s performance and because he offers better proximity.
Coming into the off-season, my one minor concern regarding Arenado was whether he can post comparable power numbers at more advanced levels. What I love about Arenado’s numbers is—unlike the players who are striking out 22-25% of the time—Arenado’s low strikeout totals provide him w/ some room to grow. In other words, if needed, he can theoretically apply a more aggressive approach to get more power because a moderate increase in his strikeout totals would not pose a major concern.
Lawrie was an animal after the call-up. He showed a little bit of everything. In just 150AB he had 21XBH, 7SB, 31/16 K/BB, 953OPS. I also think he shut a lot of critics up about his defense. It wasn’t spectacular, but it was improved.Arenado has be tearing it up lately, and O’Dowd and Tracy already said he has a shot of taking the 3B job out of spring training, but like Bradley said, he hasn’t played above High A. I think Lawrie has the higher upside short-term and long-term, and you’re getting rewarded NOW.
Thanks Kevin! Great suggestions! Santana is definitely an exciting prospect. The strikeout to walk ratio is a moderate concern, but he offers ridiculous tools and the ’stros did a good job getting him as the last player in the Pence trade.
I would put Lawrie ahead of Arenado. I really like Arenado’s combination of power and low strikeouts, and I was actually a little skeptical about jumping Lawrie too much even after the huge first half in AAA. They are both solid prospects, but I like that Lawrie has already posted solid numbers in a small sample size in the major leagues. Arenado still has not played above A+, even though the recent AFL MVP award indicates he can do well against more advanced players.
Arenado or Lawrie? who do you believe is better long-term? I love what I saw out of Lawrie, but Arenado is tearing it up and has the COL park and after the Wiggington trade..he could be called up rather soon.
I can’t really find any REALLY Over-Valued guys, I think they are close enough to where you have them (maybe a few flip-flops but who wouldn’t)
Under-Valued-
Hutchison. I know his ceiling is a little low, but I think his velocity increase this year and the improved numbers deserve a jump.
I also think a few guys should get consideration-
Domingo Santana. Bradley, you should know why being a ‘Stros fan.
Jesse Biddle. I know his 1st full season was a little pedestrian, and he tailed off in the second half, but I like his secondary stuff and I think his velocity comes back.
Like the suggestions, Mark! We are definitely planning to publish more positions. I apologize the updates have been a little slow! I am starting a law firm in January w/ two friends and that has been taking up a lot of my time. But we have first base ready and will publish it really soon.
I agree Rosario probably should be somewhere on the list, especially since the move to second base increased his value. Choice offers great power. His main challenge will be producing similar power at more advanced levels without increasing his strikeout totals.I watched Pomeranz pitch pretty frequently at Ole Miss, and I am a big fan. Interesting how much the move to Colorado affects his value? Several years ago, it would have really hurt his value but the adjustments at Coors Field have made producing respectable numbers a little easier.
Are you going to be doing top 25’s for more positions than catcher? I likie the list but I unlike most others am not a Pomaranz fan at all now that he’s a Rockie who’s only sucessful starting pitcher has been Ubaldo. I think tijuan, Carlos Martinez, Nolan Arrenando, Marisnick, Choice all need to be higher. Also to leave Rosario off the list is a huge mistake! Also why is Rymer Liriano so low he’s really good!
Great feedback, Simon. Not sure where to rank Eovaldi? He posted a solid ERA last season after the Dodgers promoted him. Based on the small sample size, my concerns are the 23:20 k/BB rate and not having a third pitch he would throw regularly (95% fastball and slider). He has a chance to make LA’s rotation next spring, but I wonder if they’ll give him a little extra time b/c of the huge long-term value in getting an extra pitch he can throw more regularly.
Sampson is an interesting prospect. What stuck out to me is comparing his overall numbers to his game-by-game performances. Even though the overall numbers are good, they would be much better “but for” a few really bad starts b/c he surrendered one or less ER’s in more than half his starts last season. A downside is his BABIP seems a little low, but regardless, I think he’s an intriguing long-term prospect.
Speaking of Padres pitchers, what do y’all think of Erlin’s ranking? Erlin’s career strikeout to walk totals are unbelievable (something like 270 k’s to 30 BB’s), which allowed his to post a solid ERA last season despite a relatively high BABIP. Regardless, my ranking is perhaps a little aggressive considering most scouting reports do not indicate Erlin profiles as a top-of-the-rotation starter stuffwise.
stick should read suck in my last comment on Eovaldi.
Just looking at your list, and the over/under-valued prospects. I think someone like Eovaldi is actually about right for a 21 year old who reached the bigs and didn’t stick. Yes, he doesn’t have top of the rotation upside (Although I think John Sickels suggested he could end up as a 2 or 3), but he probably starts next year for the Dodgers. That’s assuming you’re looking at him in a big league. I have him in a 28 team league, and I get asked for him in trades regularly. On the other hand, in smaller leagues, he has little value. I think he’s unowned in the various 12-16 team leagues I play in.
Others that I think are too low:
Taijuan Walker (a little)
Bogaerts (abdly – should be 30-50 imo)
Sampson
Paxton
Lindor
Eddie Rosario (especially if he can stick at 2B)
Kind of think Syndergaard and Wheeler are better than the others who just missed as well.
Overvalued:
Betances
Hamilton
Delgado
Peacock
Good point on Profar and Machado, Simon. Both players offer enough defense to remain at SS, but most reports indicate Profar’s defense is superior to Machado’s.
Despite Profar’s terrific defense, I wonder how the presence of Elvis Andrus will affect Profar’s role with the Rangers? Kinsler is a free agent after the 2012 season, and if Profar has another great year, Texas could decide to make him their starting 2B by mid-season 2013. But looking that far ahead, it’s more important to focus on Profar’s abilities rather than the team’s roster situation b/c a lot can change by 2013.
It looks like the ’stros will be playing the Rangers a lot more frequently by 2013! Selfishly, one downside about this switch is I play in an NL dynasty league where I am absolutely loaded w/ young players but we might switch it to AL-only to follow the ’stros. But apparently, the problems this will potentially cause the Fighting Shamrocks in my Houston-based dynasty league was not a pressing concern for Major League Baseball. Haha.
Great question, Michael. I am planning to update this list really soon, and I started working last night moving players around. Who would y’all say are the most overvalued and undervalued players on the list? My first thought is:
Probably Overvalued: Brett Jackson, Aaron Hicks, Robbie Erlin, Dellin Betances, Zach Lee Bubba Starling, Garrett Richards, Eovaldi, Randall Delgado, Joe Wieland, Casey Kelly, James Darnell, Nathan Eovaldi, Brad Peacock, Deck McGuire.
Probably Undervalued: Wil Myers, Xander Boagerts, Will Middlebrooks, Cheslor Cutberth, Anthony Gose.
Any feedback is appreciated! I’m still reasonably happy w/ the top of the list, but starting around #20, several rankings begin to look questionable. I think most of the movements involve players who need to be moved down. Since we try to help dynasty leagues, I always try to incorporate feedback to balance my opinion w/ the prospect’s market value. Assuming I have time this weekend, I might make the adjustments this weekend and publish version two Sunday night.
Probably the reason to rank Profar over Machado is that Profar is much more likely to stick at short.
When would you expect the second version of this list to be posted? Curious if you’ll be doing any updates throughout the offseason. Just want to make sure I’m targeting the correct prospects in trades this offseason. I also want to see my boy Wil Myers begin his inevitable climb to the top!
Good point on McDade. Based on the numbers, McDade should rank higher than Morris. Both players are 22, and McDade posted similar numbers to Morris at a more advanced level. I partially placed Morris in one of the final spots based on familiarity. He was a pretty well-regarded HS player Boston picked in the second round. He did not sign, and although he had a decent career at Auburn, he was not able to increase his draft stock. Combining the background w/ last season’s 20 HRs made me think there might be an outside shot he might have a little extra upside. But I would value Morris and McDade about the same.
Boagerts should be somewhere on this list. They are doing a community list on minorleagueball, and Boagerts is starting to get consideration early. I think many people would rank him in the top 50, which is not that unreasonable considering he posted solid power numbers last season at a young age.
Totally agree Machado v. Profar is a tough call. They are the best SS prospects in baseball, and both players offer similar value (between about 6 to 15, IMO). As we were updating our lists early in the season, not promoting Profar more aggressively was my biggest mistake. I think we started him in the 50’s, and while it did not take long for most people to realize Profar’s power potential and plate discipline were much better than projected, it took a few months for me to start appropriately increasing his value. Machado struggled a little after the promotion to A+, but I don’t think it’s a concern. My guess is he’ll have a solid year in 2012, and hopefully, be in line to make an impact in 2013.
xander boegarts come close to making the list?
I made a trade of Manny Machado for Jurickson Profar solely because Profar would be in Texas (not sure who gets traded him or adnrus though). Profar has more speed, machado probably more power. Tough call though
Yeah, I was looking at him as someone who I might get as a throw-in for a deal. Actually Morris was one of the other possibles, although I liked McDade better. I thought the cut in the K numbers despite moving up to AA looked promising – agree the walk rate is poor (but significantly better than Morris).
McDade could have some potential, but at this point, I do not have him graded too high. He is a big guy who has produced reasonable power numbers the past three seasons, but the OBP is not encouraging.
I was actually just looking at McDade for the top 25 first base prospects, and he just missed the cut behind players like Rick Oropesa, Hunter Morris, Andy Wilkins, Telvin Nash, Matt Rizzotti and William Beckwith.
But I could be undervaluing McDade? For example, fellow Blue Jay David Cooper made the list and some people like McDade more.
Bradley – what do you think of Blue Jays prospect Mike McDade?
Great list of free agents, Mhz! The pitchers in this year’s free agent market are tough to gague. Looking through the names, there are a few guys who could theoretically do well, but it epitomizes why it’s important developing pitchers through the system b/c I would not be confident enough to sink millions of dollars in a multiyear deal on many of those players.
What do y’all think of Oswalt? There are some obvious concerns w/ his health and velocity, and I’ll be curious to see how much he gets in free agency. I initially thought he could be a decent buy low option, but it sounds like enough teams are showing interest that he will be fully priced.
As a ’stros fan, I have been looking at the minor league free agent list. At this point, we have acquired guys like Nick Stanihova, Brian Bixler, Craig Tatum, etc through the list, waivers, etc.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2011/11/minor-league-free-agents-2011/
The minor league free agent list is nice trip down “prospect memory lane.” The good thing about being terrible is we can afford to take risks, so even if it means losing a few more games, part of me thinks they should focus totally on ceiling and grab a few ex-prospects with an outside chance of turning it around. If you all could take a ridiculous flyer on any of these guys, who would you pick?
I think I saw the rosters in Mehul’s league awhile back. It’s definitely a good league (really deep, balanced rosters, etc), so if anybody wants a league to join, I would recommend it.
Yes the crop available from the 4 teams that are being dumped due to their owners leaving is fairly solid! I think it could be possible to join this league and build a league champion the first year you join up! I’m really looking forward to being in this league (that Mehul is mentioning). You can feel free to talk to me too if you have any questions about joining up, although I may not be able to answer all your questions just yet. Thanks guys!
Hey hardcore fantasy gurus, we have recruited two seemingly nice additiona to our 20 team deep full keeper league from this site and are in need of one more to start the orphan draft. This leagues started last year and has 90 man rosters (50 minor leaguers included). 8 of the 20 teams make the playoffs. Entry fee is $200 per season. We have an extensive set of written rules which I am happy to share with anyone interested. Great group of guys in the league. I can also give you access to the website if you are interested to peruse. The 4 new team owners will be conducting an orphan draft of the pool of players available form the 4 vacant teams which will allow you to cater your team as you desire. The pool is quite nice as fellow poster Jed could attest to. email me at mehoolio@aol.com to learn more.
Great list on the over and under valued players…Your list of often injured pitchers for the right price (fantasy or otherwise) could be quite a swing if they perform an entire season. They can improve pitching numbers if you’re lucky, but they are not an answer for dependability!!
Overvalued
OF Grady Sizemore
Cleveland didn’t pick up his option, so they don’t think he will be healthy. He’s worth double his $8.5 million option when healthy.
C Ramon Hernandez
It makes no sense to give up a 2nd round pick to sign him. Best C in a weak market.
P Erik Bedard/Dontrelle Willis/Rich Harden/Brandon Webb
Money could be better spent than on a one-year deal hoping these pitchers get through a season. I see Bedard as the best of the group, as he’ll probably return to Seattle. It is a better option than…
P Edwin Jackson
It’s going to be a lot of years and a lot of money. 5/75?
Undervalued
OF Conor Jackson
Great pull hitter that should sign at a very low price this winter. Would be a great fit in Boston(or Houston, I just think he goes to Boston).
OF David DeJesus
Had a good season until Oakland rapidly fell out of contention. He didn’t get regular playing time in a deep Oakland outfield. I look for him to rebound in 2012.
SS Nick Punto/Clint Barmes
Solid gloves that you can trust as a starter at SS.
P Colby Lewis
Quietly had 30+ starts and 200+ IP the past two seasons for Texas.
I haven’t looked at the FA market too closely, and wasn’t sure if you meant fantasy-related or not.
I’ve heard people say the talent in Cuba is equal to AA, but I agree it’s a little lower (maybe A+). It’s strange because-among the less talented players-you have a few players offering ridiculous talent who post video game numbers because their is nowhere to get promoted. For example, Cespedes had 33 HR’s and 100 RBI’s last season in 90 games!
But it’s sometimes hard to predict how those numbers will translate b/c there are differences in the game that go beyond the talent level. For example, Leslie Anderson posted great numbers in Cuba before he defected but the numbers did not translate to America for various reasons.
Cespedes offers great power. My only concern is whether the same approach will translate against advanced pitching. If that is not a major concern, he should receive a huge contract this offseason.
I think you would want to have Cespedes clearly ahead of Martin. Most people seem to feel he’s at least a level ahead of Martin, both in current talent and in potential, and the contracts being discussed would agree with that.
I had heard people saying that Cuban ball is about single-A standard, although obviously with a number of players who are well above that level. I don’t know how you could approximsate how those players would translate to the US.
Despite the limited information, I would give Cespedes an aggressive ranking (top 50 now w/ the potential to go higher if he actually starts a bidding war). That might be too aggressive without more info? One one hand, Leonis Martin received a huge contract despite not being on Cespedes’ level in the Cuban League. But the Cuban League is different than major league baseball, and after watching those games for awhile, it’s really hard to determine how a Cuban player’s skills will translate to the major leagues.
Agreed the Twins need to figure out why they are low on starting pitchers through the system. It’s virtually impossible for teams outside the largest markets to compete unless they can consistently develop starting pitching through the farm system.
I agree they’ll probably have to lose Kubel. It would be great to keep Kubel (and Cuddyer) at a reasonable price. This year’s free agent market seems thin in the outfield, which is great for Kubel but bad for the Twins b/c it’ll push his value higher than they should pay.
As the free agent rankings are being published, who do y’all think are the most overvalued (and undervalued free agents) on the market this season?
I’d let Kubel walk for sure.. I actually wish they could have traded him last year at the deadline for some young guys..Cuddyer is going to walk..I think he ends up in Philly. Either way I see them having a good young defensive outfield with Span, Revere, and Benson. Not much pop there but in that stadium they may need to build on speed and the running game. I’m high on Kenny Diekroeger in this years class.. they could maybe go that route too… its such a shame Gibson had to go down ..he woulda made the opening day rotation I think!
With the Twins, I don’t know how much of the whole “pitching to contact, not looking for strikeouts” stuff is true, but whatever they are doing, they seem good at producing pitchers who might be a 4/5 with little upside beyond that. It may be coincidence, but if not, I think the whole way that they select and develop pitchers needs to be looked at.
That said, when it comes to draft time, I think they have to take the best available player – while they need pitching, there aren’t a whole lot of lineup positiona that are locked in longterm, and hitters have a higher likelihood of working out than pitchers as well.
Bradley – don’t know if you missed this one, but now that Cespedes is likely to be eligible, where would you slot him in on the prospect list? Is he likely just to be able to go straight to the bigs, or will he need some time in the minors adjusting to better picthing?
Good question on who the Twins should pick? Even though I don’t think they necessarily need to take a pitcher, it seems like a good move assuming the right pitcher is available at #2. I’ll be looking closely at the top players too because the ’stros have the first pick!
Going forward, I think the Twins will start improving. Historically, they are one of the best run teams in baseball. Like all teams outside the largest markets, the key to remaining competitive is to maintain a strong enough farm system to be able to “sell high” on productive players before they become expensive and hopefully replace those players’ production at minimal cost w/ players developed through the system.
I do not think they neccesarily need a massive overhaul. It’ll be a slow process of managing their payroll, developing the younger players in their system, and getting slightly more aggressive using the draft to acquire players who can help them long term.
What do you think they do w/ Kubel and Cuddyer? I obviously think they should try to keep both at reasonable cost. Unfortunately, I think both players will have strong enough demand on the free agent market that bringing them back at FMV will be tough.
Thanks Brad!!! Go Twins!!!
Speaking of the Twins.. where do you see Miguel Sano falling in your top 100 prospects in all of baseball? I think I’d put him in the top 20…
The Twins have some good prospects if they can turn out (Benson and Hicks).. but they still have lots of room for improvement in their young pitching. In the big leagues today pitching is king, and Twins farm system provides pretty much no hope for their future rotation. They “must” draft a pitcher such as McCullers or Giolito with that 2nd overall pick in this years draft… would you agree??
Also, that is awesome Soler defected! He is a really interesting player w/ huge upside. For example, Soler was arguably the best hitter on Cuba’s 18 and under team when he was almost two years younger than the rest of the team.
I got to see him play briefly in a webcast of a Cuban game earlier this season. It was hard to learn too much because he was playing against much older competition. He was suspended earlier this season for trying to defect, and it’s great to see he escaped Cuba successfully.
It’s awesome seeing a number of the international players we discussed earlier this season (Cespedes, Soler, Darvish, etc) arriving in the United States, and hopefully, they can make a big impact playing here.
My first instinct was to pick Morrison also.
Jed, I just finished reading something you would really enjoy. A friend of mine who manages our family’s farm is a huge Twins fan, and he told me about a website called http://www.twinscentric.com. Yesterday, he loaned me his copy of the site’s “Twins Offseason GM Handbook” and it’s pretty awesome. I read the whole thing in a few hours and it provides great analysis of the various issues the Twins are facing this offseason. For non-Twins fans, the book also provides a terrific concise overview of the free agent market.
The Twins are a really interesting team and I am becoming a fan. I think Ryan returning as GM is a good move. Even though I don’t think all of the current issues are Smith’s fault, I am not convinced things would improve if they continued moving in the same direction. Long term, the focus needs to go back to making sure the team has a farm system which can produce players who can contribute every season. At they same time, even if their revenue has increased, they need to be more willing to sell high on many of the mid-level players they develop before their salaries increase.
Injuries were the biggest problem last season, and the lack of production from Morneau and Mauer was a disaster. I think another problem is too many of the players they did a great job developing 4-5 years ago remain on the payroll now making several million dollars. They don’t have enough players in their farm system they can rely on to contribute next season, and they don’t have enough money to properly plug the wholes through free agency.
Nevertheless, in theory, the Twins could try to compete next season by making several short-term free agent acquisitions at reasonable cost. Many of the contracts will come off the books after next season anyway, so even if it’s a longshot, the Twins could try to add some veteran depth at reasonable cost to see what happens.
Lomo
definately LoMo… It sounds like he could be hitting the road out of Florida and may end up back at his premium position of 1B. Tabata got a contract in Pittsburgh but by looks of things he could end up being a platoon player down the road. McCutchen, Marte, Grossman, and now Bell. Id ship out Tabata and hang onto LoMo. LoMo has much more power potential too.. i see 30-100 in his future.
Quick question 12 team, 5×5 – Jose Tabata or Lomo? I’d probably have the player for the next four years.
@Simon…. wow!!! I didn’t even know Jorge Soler defected… I’ve read some articles on him saying he has big time raw power!! And he’s a giant for a 19 year old! Hes built like Miguel Cabrera and Mike Stanton already!! I’m pretty high on Soler. Sounds like Cespedes is a big time prospect too!
Where would you slot in Yoenis Cespedes, given that he appears likely to be a free agent in time for the season?
Also, I wondered if you knew anything about the other Cuban players mentioned in this article:
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111107&content_id=25932036&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb
@sd You do know Betances has pitched 2.2 innings in total in the majors, and you think that’s significant compared to all the innings he’s logged in the minors? I agree that Pazton is likely a better prospect, but basing it on one appearance is a bit ridiculous.
“On a different note, I was going through these rankings player by player and noticed a few more omissions that i wanted to ask about.
Anthony Ranaudo
Matt Lipka
Kaleb Cowart
Addison Reed
Sammy Solis
Brody Colvin
and thats just a few that i thought of right away
Thoughts?”
this s from a different post. not sure if it was answered
Betances in the top 50? Seriously? In my mind is horrific debut in the bigs has to have some significant detrimental impact on his fantasy ranking. I would be shocked if there was any given year in the roman calendar where Betances has a better year than Paxton.
Good stuff, Jed. I just looked at their rankings and it looks like they are pretty close to our list. They stayed pretty patient on Drury, which makes some sense based on the lack of walks.
The Braves’ system is interesting because, growing up, it was almost a given they would have a Top 10 system. It’s remarkable the Braves were able to maintain a top tier farm system for almost 20 years without picking near the top of the draft and/or spending that heavily on bonuses. In the draft, it always seemed the Braves had lots of success really concentrating on specific areas (mostly the southeast). But internationally, they had success going in the opposite direction and finding players in places that were scouted less extensively. I’m not totally sure really sure this was a strategy the Braves deliberately applied and/or the reason for their success. Besides finding players, I think you can argue the Braves success was due to doing a terrific job developing the players they drafted.
This year’s system is decent, but once those top three pitchers graduate, their system will seem unusually thin. I don’t necessarily think their system is headed in the wrong direction? Many of their system’s best players advanced quickly (Heyward, Freeman, Teheran). Also, they have some talent in the lower levels, so it might just take a little time before the “next wave” of prospects start to break out.
Just FYI… Baseball America started their Top 10 lists by Organization today!!! Atlanta Braves kicked things off..
Yeah i should be pretty good this year, i dont have to many holes to fill at the end of this season. Maybe one more impact pitcher so im hoping White or Parker can provide that until one of my top picks is ready to go. I also have Arencibia so i might trade Wieters in a year or two before free agency and recoup so pitching talent
Nice! How close are you to being ready to compete? It seems like a pretty talented roster, but it always depends on the depth of those leagues. That’s an impressive group of young players, so I’m guessing you’ll be ready to compete next year?
That’s a good idea. I’ve been slowly acquiring these picks during the rebuild of my team. I took it over at the end of this past season. So far I have Wieters, Freeman, Pedroia, Chisenhall, Castro, Jennings, McCutchen, Upton, Hanson, Hudson, Latos, White, Soria, Hanrahan all locked up for at least 3 years before contracts expire.
Very nice! I like that-unlike the contracted team- you are getting some value from almost all of the farm spots. I especially like all the picks you have coming into this year’s draft! With the combination of the players available and the amount of talent in this year’s draft class, you should have a really deep farm system.
Here is a random thought: what about looking into swapping the #12 pick and another pick to acquire another pick in the Top 10? I would target the owners picking between 3-6. For example, a possible trade would be the #12 and #48 picks for the #5 pick?
Basically, my goal would be to acquire two of the following players: Cole, Bauer, Rendon, Starling, Bundy, and Darvish (if he’s posted before the draft). I also think Hultzen, Archie Bradley, and D’Arnaud are elite prospects. I like the idea of sacrificing some of that depth (but not much) to make sure you add two “five star” prospects to your system. I feel confident you can get an elite player at #10, but at #12, I am concerned enough about the drop in talent to justify moving that #12 pick for another pick in the Top 10.
It’s possible the people w/ the top picks will be unreasonable, and if so, I’d pass b/c there is no urgent need to sacrifice too much depth to move up…especially b/c you might be able to get solid value at #12 if there are a few surprise picks (i.e., person who doesn’t really care takes ____ w/ the #3 pick). But at the same time, I would make few offers b/c I think this is a draft where getting the second top 10 pick makes sense assuming it can be acquired at a reasonable cost.
Yeah I’m pretty happy with that pick. My farm system in that league is shaping up quite nicely. We our regular off season 5 round minors draft coming up and out of the 81 total picks (there’s 1 comp pick in there), i have # 10, 12, 27, 29, 43, 48, 59, 75, 80. but my farm is as follows:
A.J. Cole
Chad Bettis
Guillermo Pimentel
Jarrod Parker
Jesse Biddle
Rex Brothers
Sammy Solis
Yasmani Grandal
Albert Campos
Jordan Pacheco
Josh Vitters
Charlie Blackmon
I’ve been scouring through the rosters and have found that besides the FYP guys being available, there is also:
Travis D’Arnaud
Matt Harvey
Brad Peacock
Leonys Martin
Jedd Gyorko
Jake Marisnick (your favorite Bradley)
Anthony Gose
James Paxton
Joe Wieland
and a few others that i’m surprised are still around.
On a different note, I was going through these rankings player by player and noticed a few more omissions that i wanted to ask about.
Anthony Ranaudo
Matt Lipka
Kaleb Cowart
Addison Reed
Sammy Solis
Brody Colvin
and thats just a few that i thought of right away
Thoughts?
Good pick, Andy! Getting Hicks that late would have been awesome, but with Pimentel, you get a high-upside power hitter who provides solid value that late in the draft.
update on my prospect draft question.
After i posted my question, the next three picks were James, Liddi and Hicks. So i took Pimentel, whom i was planning on taking anyways. Good thing those three managers didnt read this comment thread lol