I apologize non-baseball obligations temporarily halted my posting, but with the series postponed tonight, I decided to start the positional rankings. In the next few months, we will provide a position-by-position analysis of the top prospects in baseball. I will start with catcher, and while omissions are a possibility, here is how I would rank the top 25 catching prospects in baseball. As always, feedback is appreciated so let us know which players you believe are ranked too high or too low.
1. Jesus Montero-Yankees
2. Devin Mesoraco-Reds
3. Travis D’Arnaud-Blue Jays
4. Gary Sanchez-Yankees
5. Yasmani Grandal-Reds
6. Ryan Lavarnway-Red Sox
7. Wilin Rosario-Rockies
8. Blake Swihart-Red Sox
9. Tommy Joseph-Giants
10. Austin Hedges-Padres
11. Sebastian Valle-Phillies
12. Derek Norris-Nationals
13. Christian Vazquez-Red Sox
14. JT Realmuto-Marlins
15. Tony Sanchez-Pirates
16. Jorge Alfaro-Rangers
17. Austin Romine-Yankees
18. Carlos Perez-Blue Jays
19. Tomas Telis-Rangers
20. Christian Bethancourt-Braves
21. Will Swanner-Rockies
22. Tim Federowicz-Dodgers
23. Oscar Hernandez-Rays
24. A.J. Jimenez-Blue Jays
25. Justin O’Conner-Rays/Kellin Deglan-Rangers
Future players: Mike Zunino—Univ. of Florida (2012), Stryker Trahan—HS (La.) (2012), and for people in really deep leagues, it’s worth noting Perfect Game puts three catchers among its top 10 HS players for the 2013 draft (Jeremy Martinez, Zack Collins, and Reese McGuire)
Peter O’Brien is a lucky guy and a really good person. I don’t know him personally, but I’ve talked to Cade Kreuter and his dad about him. I thought he fell into a great situation in Colorado, and he finds an even better one at Miami. He can easily be at the top of the draft considering he is going to be facing a lot of top picks in the ACC(Mike Morin, Hudson Randall, Brian Johnson, Branden Kline, Macus Stroman) and plenty more behind them(Chris Overman, Buck Farmer, Luke Bard, and more)
Thanks for the replies, guys. No, the 3-year contract for Mes starts running this season, as of course does Moustakas.
There is a 125 dollar salary cap so 1.25 isn’t huge, but that’s for a 25 player big league roster combined with a 15 player farm roster. I’m at about $100 mil right now with about 8 big league players still to pick up via free agency or trade.
I’m dangling Hultzen out there right now for Belt to the same guy to beef up the deal, although Hultzen has 5 years remaining on his deal while belt has a $1 mil contract with only 1 year remaining. However, with a solid group of prospective pitchers already on my farm team (Cole, Teheran, Bauer, Hultzen, and Gray) and Haren, Josh Johnson, Vogelsong, Ogando, and Crow on my big league roster, I can afford to lose some SPs for some much needed bats.
I might just go ahead and tell him I’ll do the Moustakas for Mes deal because I’m in desperate need of a Catcher (only have Wilin Rosario on my farm team and a current FA bid out for Saltalamacchia).
Thanks for the input guys.
Great question, Kyle. I think I would take Mesoraco over Moustakas even if 1.25 does not get you too much, but not totally sure.
Is Mesoraco’s contract already running? For example, I play in a three year league where contracts only start running once a rookie has spent some time in the majors (two weeks excluding September). If you get another year of Mesoraco b/c he’s arriving a year later, it’s another reason to take the deal.
Rees give an example of how much 1.25 would get you? Personally I like Moose but if that’s enough to get say another high-ceiling player buried in the minors I might take it.
Depends, if you think that Moustakas’s improvement at the end of the year was for real, I’d keep him. For me, he doesn’t have the strike-zone discipline to be elite, so I would probably make the deal, especially as I like Mesoraco.
I just got offered Mesoraco with a $4.25/3 contract for my Moustakas with a $5.5/3. Should I take that deal? I’m in need of a catcher but I really like Moustakas potential.
Great stuff, MHZ! I looked at Gallagher b/c he was drafted pretty high, but ended up leaving him off based on lack of information. Haase is interesting…second consecutive year Cleveland took a local catcher around that spot!
I don’t know much about Baker? I just googled him and saw his brother was the 1B the Pirates traded for Derrick Lee. The Angels took a few catchers w/ organizational ties b/c I thought it was interesting they took Matt Scoscia. It was also interesting the Angels got Jett Bandy really late in the draft (Riley Moore’s predecessor at Arizona…funny how the players being discussed have some random connection). Bandy definitely did not increase his stock last season, but considering he got a lot of hype before the season, that might have been a decent pick considering they drafted him late.
Among players that did not sign, what do you think of Peter O’Brien? He did not sign w/ the Rockies and he’s transferring to Miami…but there seems to be less discussion about him for next year’s draft despite the thinner class. It’ll be interesting to see if he can increase his stock w/ a solid senior year in a tougher conference.
http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports_college_hurricanes/2012/01/obrien-wins-appeal-with-impassioned-speech.html
Cameron Gallagher, Eric Haase, and Abel Baker are three catchers I like from this draft who might be future considerations. Watch for reports on Gallagher’s defense, as he is a big kid(6′3″, 215). I’d imagine any talk of moving him from behind the plate would be viewed as a negative in the Royals’ system. Haase and Baker are two very good C prospects that were drafted because of organizational ties. Riley Moore went unsigned to go to University of Arizona is another as well. Nick Delmonico could challenge for this list, but I’m definitely not his best to campaign for a reason why he should. I still feel like I am missing a few names that could legitimately challenge for a spot on this list in the future.
Salvador Perez no longer qualifies as a prospect…
Why is Salvador Perez not making these lists? He hits for average. Above average defensively, and projectable. I’m sincerely confused.
Great job on the lists and on the site overall, Bradley.
Just one suggestion.
For those of us who play keeper leagues and have no immediate expectation of ETA, we can satisfy ourselves by ranking and arguing various facets of a player’s abilities and their likelihood to succeed in the majors.
However, there are also several drafters who are looking to a “deepleague” site such as this, to try and uncover those candidates who are the closest to Show and those who represent a decent percentage play to have 2012 impact.
Those of us who play in true deep leagues where the player population is widely drafted, are grateful for the opportunity to draft a player flying below the radar who is close to MLB rather than filling your last roster spots with below replacement level major leaguers who are basically scrubs, or worse, ratio-stat killers.
With the above in mind, would it be possible to either add to your rankings or to post separate lists, by 2012 ETA and by 2012 impact — example, a given player may have the best opportunity to accede to MLB in 2012 but may not be deemed ready to have 2012 impact. Another may arrive in MLB in 2012 but may be ranked as being sufficiently advanced to be able to be immediately productive.
Any feedback in respect of the above would be greatly valued.
Looking forward to reading you.
Thanks,
JT
Yeah, he does look awfully low at #20. I watched him in the AFL Championship Game, and I was really impressed. Based on the AFL, he perhaps offers more power than indicated by his minor league numbers. If he can increase his power (and draw a few more walks), he can be an extremely effective catcher.
Based on his season, scouting reports and showing in the AFL, I would move Bethancourt up to at least #8, and possibly as high as #4. He was rated as the #5 prospect in the AFL by MLB.
It would be huge if he can stick at catcher! His numbers look great from the catcher spot, but if he switches to another position, his value becomes a lot more interchangable w/ other prospects. Sticking at catcher is also huge because of Boston’s roster situation. It’s easy to envision Lavarnway receiving substantial playing time competing w/ Saltalamacchia, but at first base or DH, it will be much harder for him to carve out a role.
I’ve watched Lavarnway some, and I think the concerns about his defense are somewhat overblown. He’s not particularly smooth or athletic-looking behind the plate, but he calls a good game, blocks balls in the dirt well, and has improved his ability to throw out runners. He’s smart and has a great work ethic. I think there’s a reasonable chance he sticks at catcher.
Great questions, Ryne. Castillo still qualifies, and you can make a great case he should be ranked somewhere on this list. He posted respectable numbers in AAA last season, and at some point, he should be in Chicago permanently as the backup catcher.
I would rank Salvador Perez fairly high considering he is Kansas City’s starting catcher and he posted respectable numbers. In a league that places less emphasis on ceiling, I might place him in front of Lavarnway. But even though Lavarnway (defense) and Rosario (OBP) have concerns, I would still probably put Perez behind those two players.
Does Wellington Castillo qualify for this list? Also, where would Salvador Perez rank?
Hey Mike! Just posted the rankings. I apologize the first update took awhile, and I promise we will be more proactive updating the rest of the offseason.
Where are the first base prospects? Are these coming out soon? I saw you mentioned you were publishing them last week, I’m eager to see them .. Thanks!
Great comment, Gorman. You are right that-even in fantasy-defense can really change a prospect’s value when they are forced to move to a position where hitters are expected to produce bigger numbers. I am publishing the first base rankings right now, and the position is thin b/c many players who will ultimately play first base try learning another position in the minors.
I am always happy to answer questions re: defensive value, especially when we rank the shortstops (where a switch makes a huge difference). On the rankings, we generally keep the information really basic mainly because our site format makes the list look cluttered when we add info next to the rankings.
At catcher, three prospects who could get switched are Montero, Lavarnway, and Norris. This would clearly hurt their value, but to some degree, we incorporate the concerns into the rankings. For example, Lavarnway would be a few spots higher if he was an elite defensive catcher. Conversely, Valle would rank much lower if there were concerns he could not remain at catcher.
I was wondering in the furure, if you could add to your rankings of position players, the likely-hood of the ranked player staying at such listed position. Maybe from A to F based on their defensive abilities. I have noticed thru the years looking thru many different sites that prospects switch positions often during their development.
I happen to be in a very deep league fantasy league. I used a very high draft pick years ago to draft Grant Green, a touted shortstop. Now he is slated for the outfield. An outfielder does me no good for that draft pick. If I had an information source on how well of a defenseman a prospect is, I could draft with more confidence.
Just my two cents question-request.
Very good question. In many cases, our positional rankings will be different than the Top 100. The Top 100 is based upon the updated list we kept throughout the season, and as we create the new lists from scratch, some of the rankings will change based on adjusting our reasoning and/or new information.
In this case, Sanchez struggled some during the first-half of the season and many reports around the all star break were not very optimistic. But he really bounced back in the second half, and by season’s end, had arguably maintained or increased his prospect status coming into 2011. To some degree, we jumped him too slowly as he was improving in the second half.
Grandal had a solid season, and seemed to basically maintain his prospect status coming into the season. However, the #47 ranking is slightly high b/c he kept moving up by default as other prospects graduated. I think his ranking should be slightly affected based on Mesoraco having another great year, but I would say Grandal should still rank somewhere between 50-75 w/ Sanchez ranked a few spots higher.
These rankings don’t match up with your top 100 – for example, Sanchez is 74 and Grandal 47, but you have Sanchez rated higher on this list. Is there a reason for that?
i agree that jimenez belongs closer to the 11-15 range. full disclosure, i own him in a league. but i made the evaluation midyear to drop valle for him and i still feel good about the choice. defense doesn’t score points in fantasy but it does earn you playing time. he seems to have a solid line-drive bat with doubles power. he’s on the young side for his levels. and he even runs a little. it’s a real solid all-around package without superstar upside but with no obvious weaknesses either. sometimes i think people get greedy about catcher offense. sure he’s not mesoraco but there’s not 15 mesoracos.
If Norris posts solid numbers in AA next season and Ramos’ numbers regress next season, it’s easily possible Norris could compete to be Washington’s catcher in 2013. But at this point, I think Ramos’ rookie season was productive enough he appears to be Washington’s catcher for the foreseeable future.
I think Ramos’ numbers seem pretty sustainable, and ideally, he can moderately improve his batting average in his second season. Norris struggled in his first season in AA, but with his combination of power and plate discipline, he offers plenty of upside to develop into a solid catcher. The benefit of Ramos’ solid performance is the Nationals can afford to give Norris another season to improve.
It would be interesting to see what Washington would do if Ramos repeated last season’s numbers and Norris had a great season in AA? If they were contending in the NL East, it’s possible they would trade Norris assuming they received a solid offer. If not, they would presumably enjoy having the extra depth.
What are your thoughts that Norris starts in say 2013 over Wilson Ramos?
What’s up Ryne! Good mention re: Jimenez. BA ranked him the #10 prospect in the FSL, which is higher than Hutchinson, Arcia, Valle, Thornburg, etc. We ranked him a little lower for several reasons. First, I think Jimenez offers slightly less value in dynasty leagues b/c his biggest strength is his premium defense. His offensive numbers are decent, but at this point, there is still some question re: whether the power numbers will improve. It’s possible his numbers could jump in AA, especially if they were deflated playing in the FSL (pitcher friendly league). Good luck to the Bears against Oklahoma State this wknd, btw!
Chen is an interesting prospect, Simon. He had a great year in 2010, and played this season in AA. This season was a mixed bag, IMO. On one hand, the 16 HR’s are encouraging. But the plate discipline totals were not good, which particularly discouraging considering he had more BB’s than K’s in A+ last season.
Did you give any thought to Chun-Hsiu Chen of the Indians?
Based on where Jimenez has ranked in the league top-20 prospects by BA, I’d say he’s too low.
Good comment on Norris, Andy. He’s an interesting prospect. For the second consecutive year, he finished w/ a really low batting average. It’s a concern, but at the same time, he showed respectable power while drawing a large number of walks. His BABIP was just .251, so even though he’ll need more time in the minor leagues, there are still many signs his batting average will improve and he can develop into a productive player.
Appreciate the compliment, MHZ! Definitely a challenge ranking catchers. I originally had Perez in that exact spot (10-12), but at the last minute, I checked the stats and he exceeded 130 AB’s. I was surprised too b/c it didn’t seem he was up long. Great call on Ramon Cabrera! He’s not a player I followed closely, but after winning the FSL batting title while walking more than he struck out, he deserved a spot on the list. Swanner is definitely intriguing. The early reports on him are overwhelmingly positive. He clearly has solid power, and I think most reports re: his defense indicate he should be able to remain at catcher.
The Swihart ranking is definitely aggressive, Mike. To some degree, I ranked him aggressively because this year’s class of catchers seemed fairly thin after the Top 7. Ideally, Swihart can develop into a solid switch hitting catcher w/ power from both sides of the plate. Even though it’s too early to tell, some reports indicate Swihart offers solid plate discipline which would really increase his value.
I definitely agree that catchers are often tougher tougher dynasty picks, Jed. I’ve always avoided picking catchers b/c I’ve never had the best luck picking which less-heralded catchers will develop into productive major leaguers. I think it’s based on a combination of factors, the biggest reason being so much of a catcher’s value is tied up in defense. In most cases, a player’s defense is largely irrelevant in fantasy, but with catchers, you have to place greater emphasis on defense b/c the numbers of a top catching prospect are much less impressive at first base or corner outfield.
Good mention on Skipworth. I finally removed him from the rankings this season, even though he showed decent power (11 HR’s) for being somewhat young for AA. The concern is the strikeout rates remain well over 30%, and it’ll be really difficult for him to productive if he can’t find a way to reduce his strikeouts by about 5% while keeping the power numbers consistent.
Kyle Skipworth may be another catching prospect to keep an eye on. He has tremendous pop in his bat, despite the bad K/BB ratio.
In terms of fantasy for catchers, I think if you can find a guy who you can get any sort of production out of (i.e. a .300 hitter, or 25 HR) the catcher position then you basically live with it.
Brad, would you agree that when drafting for keeper leagues that the catching prospects are usually the last you’d ever want to choose from unless the next Joe Mauer or Ivan Rodriguez comes along?
I personally would have to say I dont believe the Swihart will end up staying at the catcher position.. I think he finds his calling at 2B or 3B down the road. I also think Tony Sanchez’s ranking is rather low. Especially since I think he is an above average catcher and looks to remain at the position. He may never hit more than 15 HR’s in a season but he is a potential .280+ hitter with a solid K/BB ratio.
The guys I find to be the most interesting on this list are Oscar Hernandez and Austin Hedges. Both of them we know very little about, but by word on the street from the scouting reports it sounds like they both have tremendous upsides.
I meant the reports on Swanner are limited, not his potential.
Wilin Rosario seems pretty solid where he is ranked. Rockies will be pushing him hard for the starting catcher position so they won’t need to pick up Iannetta’s $5 million 2013 option.
I like the Lavarnway ranking – think some folks take the traditional “scout’s view” that his D is suspect. But reports have been he gets the job done pretty well. He mashed too and has a good eye.
Swihart is interesting, but aggressive ranking. Future Wil Myers type projection?
Hedges bat has always been lagging his incredible D, but hit well in first pro stint. Sucks he has to call Petco home though.
Norris is tearing up AFL after making some changes in his approach. Probably heads back to AA to start next year, but won’t stay long if he carries over this AFL performance. Probably should be still higher for channeling his inner Adam Dunn, but I can see why you dropped him.
Bradley, I was happy to see William Swanner’s name. It’s pretty limited but he has a ton of power potential. I really like him.
Great work, it is really difficult to make a list of catching prospects. The only criticisms I’d have is adding Salvador Perez of Kansas City and Ramon Cabrera of the Pirates somewhere in the 10-12 range of Hedges/Valle/Norris. Hard to rank those guys, but I think there’s a clear distinction between Tommy Joseph(.301/.346/.574, 22 2B, 16 HR in 256 AB after ASB), and the catchers following him on the list.
I like Tucker Barnhart, but he definitely belongs in the Justin O’Conner/Kellin Deglan group. I’m not sure where Luke Bailey fits in right now so maybe here as well.
The one ranking that sticks out the most to me is Derek Norris, i would place him between Rosario and Swihart, not sure i can fully express why i think he belongs there, just a gut feeling at this point. His K rate is pretty high but overall I don’t see his power and plate discpline changing. He tends to be too patient and that can lead to bad hitters’ counts at times. If he was to jump on something earlier I’d see him being able to produce a healthy AVG and great OBP. Considering his hammate injury and being struck in the head a year ago, i don’t put too much stock in his sub par performance at the plate. His defense has been improving for the most part, so i can see him sticking at Catcher and getting a shot early to mid 2013.
I typed a few notes as I was creating the rankings, and I thought I would post them in the comment board just to raise a few discussion points and provide some extra info re: the prospects.
1. Rosario is one of the tougher players to rank? #7 is really low and I would like to put him higher—but at age 22—he posted a .284 on base percentage in AA. If he advances to the major leagues, he’ll have trouble being productive unless the OBP remains stable. I think Rosario can perhaps manage that, but I am not convinced enough to rank him too much higher. At that same time, Lavarnway over Rosario is questionable b/c you could make a similar argument re: Lavarnway’s defense.
2. Tough deciding how much to devalue the falling prospects? Tony Sanchez and Derek Norris both came into the season as well-regarded prospects, but they were not productive in 2011. Going forward, the concerns re: each player are a little different. Norris still offers upside b/c he was young for AA, and showed power and plate discipline. At the same time, in addition to the defensive concerns, the .210 BA is a problem considering last season’s ranking was partially based on Norris building on improvements in the second half of 2010. Sanchez should reach the major leagues, but given his age and numbers this season, the question is how much value he will provide as a major leaguer (same concept applies to Romine, IMO)?
3. Some lesser-regarded players I like statistically are Christian Vazquez and JT Realmuto. Both posted solid numbers, but at this point, it’s questionable how high to value them based on this season’s performance. Under the same logic, Oscar Hernandez posted incredible numbers in the VSL. But it’s hard to know how much weight to place on those numbers until he arrives in America.
4. A few of these rising prospects have huge strikeout/walk concerns. There are lots of positive reports re: Jorge Alfardo (5 BB’s and 54 K’s), Sebastian Vallue (13 BB’s and 84 k’s), and Tommy Joseph (29 BB’s and 102 k’s). But how much will those plate discipline totals affect their performance as they advance to higher levels? Conversely, I gave Tomas Telis a somewhat aggressive ranking based upon his low strikeout totals (not many walks though).
5. There are several rising prospects where lack of information is a problem. The reports re: Will Swanner have been positive, and even though he showed solid power, the information remains pretty limited. Justin O’Conner and Kellin Deglan are both former first rounders who still offer upside, but statistically, there is not much to justify giving them a top ranking.