I received a bunch of emails this week requesting a list containing only 2011 draft prospects. I was going to create this list after finishing the positional rankings, but since several of these owners have their draft in the next few weeks, I decided to publish a rough draft of this list right now. At this point, I have not had much time to research…but I figured publishing a rough draft would create some discussion to eventually improve the list and give the owners with upcoming drafts a basic list of players.
If anybody has sleepers from the 2011 draft they like (or players they would avoid), definitely post them in the comment board.
1. Gerrit Cole—P, Pirates
2. Anthony Rendon—3B, Nationals
3. Trevor Bauer—P, Diamondbacks
4. Dylan Bundy—P, Orioles
5. Danny Hultzen—P, Mariners
6. Bubba Starling—OF, Royals
7. Archie Bradley—P, Diamondbacks
8. George Springer—OF, Astros
9. Francisco Lindor—SS, Indians
10. Taylor Jungmann—P, Brewers
11. Josh Bell—OF, Pirates
12. Corey Spangenberg—3B, Padres
13. Sonny Gray—P, Athletics
14. Jed Bradley—P, Brewers
15. Kolten Wong—2B, Cardinals
16. Javier Baez—IF, Cubs
17. Brian Goodwin—OF, Nationals
18. Matt Barnes—P, Red Sox
19. CJ Cron—1B, Angels
20. Brandon Nimmo—OF, Mets
21. Jose Fernandez—P, Marlins
22. Alex Meyer—P, Nationals
23. Matthew Purke—P, Nationals
24. Daniel Norris—P, Blue Jays
25. Taylor Guerrieri—P, Rays
26. Blake Swihart—C, Red Sox
27. Robert Stephenson—P, Reds
28. Tyler Anderson—P, Rockies
29. Austin Hedges—C, Padres
30. Trevor Story—SS, Rockies
31. Jackie Bradley, Jr.—OF, Red Sox
32. Joe Ross—P, Padres
33. Dillon Howard—P, Indians
34. Joe Panik—SS, Giants
35. Mikie Mahtook—OF, Rays
36. Henry Owens—P, Red Sox
37. Jake Hager—SS, Rays
38. Tyler Goeddel—3B, Rays
39. Dante Bichette—OF, Yankees
40. Andrew Chafin—P, Diamondbacks
41. Dan Vogelbach—1B, Cubs
42. Chris Reed—P, Dodgers
43. Dillon Maples—P, Cubs
44. Levi Michael—3B, Twins
45. Sean Gilmartin—P, Braves
46. Travis Harrison—3B, Twins
47. Michael Kelly—P, Padres
48. Zach Cone—OF, Rangers
49. Hudson Boyd—P, Twins
50. Kevin Matthews—P, Rangers
51. Jack Armstrong—P, Astros
52. Kevin Comer—P, Blue Jays
53. Nick Delmonico—3B, Orioles
54. Jacob Anderson—OF, Blue Jays
55. Bryan Brickhouse—P, Royals
56. Blake Snell—P, Rays
57. Dwight Smith—OF, Blue Jays
58. Shawon Dunston, Jr.—SS, Cubs
59. Michael Fulmer—P, Mets
60. Keenyn Walker—OF, White Sox
61. Joe Musgrove—P, Blue Jays
62. Brandon Martin—SS, Rays
63. Anthony Meo—P, Diamondbacks
64. Larry Greene—OF, Phillies
65. Jeff Ames—P, Rays
66. Christian Lopes—SS, Blue Jays
67. Jason Esposito—3B, Orioles
68. Charlie Tilson—OF, Cardinals
69. Roman Quinn—SS, Phillies
70. Kyle Crick—P, Giants
71. Kes Carter—OF, Rays
72. Adrian Houser—P, Astros
73. Grayson Garvin—P, Rays
74. Andrew Susac—C, Giants
75. Jace Peterson—SS, Padres
76. Jorge Lopez—P, Brewers
77. Brad Miller—SS, Mariners
78. Jake Cave—OF, Yankees
79. Aaron Westlake—1B, Tigers
80. Amir Garrett—P, Reds
81. James Harris—OF, Rays
82. Nick Ahmed—SS, Braves
83. Patrick Leonard—OF, Royals
84. J.R. Graham—P, Braves
85. Kyle Smith—P, Royals
86. Greg Bird—C, Yankees
87. Mookie Betts—SS, Red Sox
88. Clay Holmes—P, Pirates
89. Tony Cigriani—P, Reds
90. Granden Goetzman—OF, Rays
91. BA Vollmuth—SS, Athletics
92. Michael Walding—SS, Phillies
93. Phil Evans—SS, Mets
94. Tony Zynch—P, Cubs
95. Noe Ramirez—P, Red Sox
96. Nick Maronde—P, Angels
97. James McCann—C, Tigers
98. Ryan Wright—2B, Reds
99. Cam Gallagher—C, Royals
100. Clayton Blackburn—P, Giants
when can we expect to c your 2012 draft projections? also were they rank into your top 250? they were really huge to my last yrs minors draft stratagy.i had alot of success using your site last yr and im sure any that did use it had great success as well. keep up the good work guys.
HAHAHA…Roberto Osuna is so young I can’t even project what he’ll be?!?! All I know is a 16yr old with a 94mph fastball is crazy!!
Funny thing about Darvish is, AA has always spoke poorly about the whole “closed bid process” and didnt think Japanese pitcher had the durability for MLB…perhaps is was smoke in morrors (as we found out he visited Japan to see him pitch and the asnt GM visited twice).
What do you think of the Latos trade?!?! I mean Latos is very good but the REDs gave up a lot to get him. The Reds had too many prospects and it was obvious that had to trade a few as their positions on the MLB club were already filled! But wow, didnt think they would do it all in 1 trade!
It really is impressive! No system offers more players w/ huge potential, so I really like their chances of getting a few breakouts.
What do you think of Osuna? He’s a pretty intriguing pitcher from Mexico I think could prove to be a solid investment.
Speaking of major investments in foreign players, do you think y’all made the winning bid for Darvish? If so, I’ll be watching a lot of Blue Jays games on Extra Innings b/c I can’t wait to see how he performs.
Agreed on some of the later level player being on other teams top 10. If half of these high ceiling players like Sanchez, Lopes, Anderson, Smith Jr, Comer, Cardona and Thon have solid seasons next year…The JAYS will have the top farm system or at least the best depth in the minors. It is absolutely crazy the more and more I look at their system!!
John Sickels’ lists are great. Ranking players in the Blue Jays’ system is difficult b/c the system is really deep and many of the players seem to offer interchangeable value (especially @ 2-9). For example, we’ve always said Marisnick>Gose but you can make a case Gose might be more valuable even though they rank pretty far apart on that list. Between Marisnick and Gose, there are five solid pitching prospects (Syndergaard, Nicolino, Norris, McGuire, and Hutchinson) offering excellent potential…but I’d say somebody could make a decent case for ranking those pitchers in any order. The talent drops some after the top 9, IMO. But then, the depth the system offers is absolutely incredible. Many of the players in the “others of note” would be top 10 prospects in a weaker farm system!
Hey Bradley, I couldn’t get into your 2012 prospects, so I’ll leave this link here…Not sure if you want to post this, but i think this is the most accurate list for the deep Blue Jays prospects. Take a look:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/11/30/2601596/toronto-blue-jays-top-20-prospects-for-2012
Random question: what do y’all think of the Astros GM search? I’ve been following it closely, and even though our team is in a tough situation, I’m still sorta surprised many of the top candidates have rejected interviews. I think it’s partially because of the timing, but hopefully, the team is letting them know they recognize they are inheriting a tough situation that will take time to fix. Even if we are getting more rejections than we’d like, based on the candidates we are trying to interview, I am optimistic the current group is on the right track and will find the right candidate for the job.
I am still hopeful the ’stros can get get Friedman. But if that doesn’t happen, I would be pretty excited getting Lunhow from the Cardinals even if he is not as well known. I did not know much about Lunhow before he became a candidate, but based on the information available online, it seems like he could be a really good fit. He comes across an an extremely intelligent guy with an appreciation for advanced statistics who would recognize the importance of being extremely proactive bolstering our farm system, which is exactly what the ’stros need.
I was wondering if Boagerts was available. Some commenters on here have argued he is a Top 50 prospect, and I think the community list on minor league ball gave him a really aggressive ranking. I sorta see him as a guy who should start in the second half of the top 100 w/ the potential to move quickly w/ a good performance this season, but I could be rating him too low.
Lindor would be a good pick at three, but I don’t neccesarily think the value drop is substantial enough to justify trading away too much. Ideally, you can work out your initial moves (i.e., getting Cano, etc) and then later move up to #3 by packaging the 4th pick and something you cannot use (i.e., a prospect or pick that takes you over the limit) . If the owner wants value requiring you to change your plans (ex: a prospect you would keep), then you’ll be fine staying put at #4.
I think you can compete next season, but my concern is you’ll get stuck in a close race having to trade away future value. By waiting an extra season, your team has the potential to be dominating. For example, one of the teams I’ve helped pretty regularly on email since we started the site plays in a similar league and spent the extra year building in 2010 even though the team was probably ready to compete. This season, the team was so good he built a big enough lead he could trade away several of his best players at the deadline (whose contracts were expiring) to the third and fourth place teams for future value. I’ve never seen a team that was so good advising him to make that decision made sense, but it worked b/c he still finished first and was able to get solid return on the expiring contracts.
You would not be able to do that b/c of the playoff system. But the same concept applies b/c your team has the potential to dominate for three or four seasons if you keep the current group together. Basically, I think trying to compete this season could work as long as you don’t get stuck in a close race where you are forced to trade lots of future value w/ no guarantee you can win this season.
I’ve been working hard for the last couple seasons to turn the franchise around. The league is entering it’s 10th season in 2012 and this franchise has never even made the playoffs. (Top 2) I think I could definitely be a factor in 2013 and beyond. I feel the strong urge to try and compete this year, which is why I see myself doing the Cano deal. Knowing all the managers and listening to them talk trash the last couple years has amped up my desire.
One thing to mention about my league is that at any given time there is always a decent prospect at some level that isn’t owned. If it does come down to me trading some top prospects to try to win a close race, I still think I can reload in the minors better than most teams. I feel like once I have a team that is a legit contender, I’ve built up a lot of the pieces and knowledge to trade for a championship without crushing my future. After the auction or salary cap goes from $270 to $330 to allow teams to add some salary in trades throughout the season.
To compete next season I think if I follow my plan, I should be in the mix to win it. I think I need to add a catcher (Mauer, Wieters, Victor), probably a shortstop upgrade (Asdrubal), and ace pitcher (Felix, Sabathia, Shields). If I can fill in the rest of my roster with solid sleepers (Henderson Alvarez, Brandon McCarthy, Yoenis Cespedes, Greg Holland, etc.) I think I’ll have the desirable trade pieces in the minors and on my roster to add superstars to fill in for injuries or underperfomance.
As for the minor league stuff, I have considered trading for the #3 pick. I would think the manager would have to consider it if I was dangling pick #4 + something else. Do you think that Lindor is clearly the #3 guy to have? The manager that owns the #3 pick already has Hak-Ju Lee so there’s a chance he might look elsewhere. Just for knowledge sake, the best prospects available in our draft (not from the ‘11 MLB draft) are…Eddie Rosario, Jose Campos, Anthony Gose, Drew Hutchison, Brandon Jacobs, Aaron Hicks, Xander Boegerts…to name a few off the top of my head. The draft for my league isn’t until the second week of April, so I’ll make sure to check in with you and follow the updated rankings to see how things are developing. I’d appreciate any advice you have throughout the offseason!
You’ve done a great job w/ that team! That is good playing in a league where the owners know each other outside of baseball. It’s much easier to negotiate trades, and I’ve always thought it makes the league more fun. In our league, we meet at a bar once every month for a summer draft where teams can bid on free agents and callups who are not in a team’s system. It’s a good excuse to hang out and also negotiate trades.
The more I think about the Cano deal, the better it sounds. It allows you to pickup a star player while fixing your roster situation. The risk is you’ll have difficulty flipping Cano if he gets injured or underperforms, but there is not enough reason to think that will happen to justify passing on the trade.
Had another idea for your draft: have you looked into trading up to #3? You have the 4th pick, and ideally, the owner of the 3rd pick will allow you to swap #4 plus something small to move up to #3. Ideally, the other owner will be indifferent about the trade thinking there is a player he likes as much as Lindor. Then, you can get Hultzen, Bundy, and Lindor while hopefully only trading away the 4th pick and a player you would not have been able to retain.
Once you extend a player after his second season you have to keep him for the remainder of his contract. Unless he gets traded to the NL or I trade him to another team, he’ll be a keeper throughout the contract. I have the option to extend him as many years as I want but must make the decision after his second year. Basically you want to be pretty confident with anyone you extend.
My league is pretty competative but we all know each other in real life so we actually do talk trades a decent amount. Some managers are less eager than others but most people at least decline trade offers. You are reading the situation correctly, it’s basically Cano for Weeks off my auction day roster. I figure my team would benfit from the better overall production and I could afford to lose the potential speed from Weeks. Basically Cano is a superstar in my estimation, and if he’s batting 3rd next year, I could see an MVP type season.
I’m just going to try and add the best keeper pieces and minor leaguer pieces via trade in th offseason as possible. Of course I wish I played in a league with more teams but it’s still fun and I’ve made multiple trades every season.
The minor draft is always fun. I’ve been thinking Hultzen and Bundy should be #1 and #2 for a while. I guess I’m still hoping someone else appears. I’m also looking at Lindor, Sonny Gray, Eddie Rosario, Jose Campos, Anthony Gose and probably a couple others with my 4th and 8th pick. Yu Darvish has been in someone’s minors for about 2-3 years, which is legal. He doesn’t have to cut him until he starts a season in the NL. SO if he goes to the AL I’m more screwed than anything. I wanted him but that manager said Darvish, Trout and Montero are untoucbable. Cespedes would be available in the auction but unless he starts in the minors next year I won’t be able to get him in the minors in the draft.
Those are interesting rules! I like the idea of being able to lock in players. In your league, are you required to renew players so you can get stuck w/ bad contract? In our league, you have the option to renew the players for three years but its not required.
Part of me likes that Cano trade because of your roster situation. I thought about suggesting testing the trade market for Weeks, and barring some bad luck, you can flip Cano midseason and ultimately improve your roster. If I am reading the roster situation correctly, you are effectively trading Weeks for Cano 1×1 b/c you can use one of the first rounders to replace Montgomery and would not be able to use that last first rounder anyway?
But there is also opportunity cost, because in theory, you might be able to acquire more value through a series of smaller trades. The problem is your league has eight teams, and assuming it’s like other fantasy leagues, your options are limited b/c several of the teams will be unreasonable. Getting Cano is not a bad deal, and it’s far better than losing the picks. You could also try a similar deal involving Weeks plus extra value to get Profar? It depends on the return value requested by Profar’s owner, but it could be worth seeing if he’s willing to make a trade.
In the draft, I would take Bundy/Hultzen with the first two picks. The problem is that probably means losing Lindor assuming the other owner doesn’t take a non-draftee who night be available (Taijuan Walker, Leonis Martin, Boagerts). Ideally, Darvish and Cespedes will sign with AL teams before your draft b/c that guarantees you’ll get three elite prospects. If they sign, will they be eligible?
I like Eddie Rosario. At this point, I would value him about the same as McGuire and Molina. But he has the potential to really increase his value w/ another productive season offensively and a smooth transition to second base.
Thanks for the imput! I loved reading your response because I’ve had a lot of the same thoughts as you about the whole situation. As for how long we can keep players, it seems pretty similar with yours, just with a twist. Before their third season in the majors starts we have the option to extend them or keep them for a final year and then lose them. I’ll use Desmond Jennings as an example. I didn’t promote him last year because I was out of it and didn’t want to use up a year. I’ll have him for the next 2 seasons at $5. Before his third season I could extend him to…say $20. That salary immediately goes into effect before the auction. So I’d have Jennings at $5/$5/$20/$20/$20/$20.
If that all makes sense, needless to say, finding future elite minor leaguers to plug in on my team is very valuable. I could have Desmond Jennings for the next 6 years at an average of $15 per season. I’d have to go out on a giant limb and say he’ll be worth more than $15 every year. My point is that I need to get the elite players in the minor leagues and I should always be able to compete and be a threat to win every year. When I have players like Hosmer and Jennings locked in cheap as well as the future versions of them at $5, those teams should be tough.
Anyways, I agree with you about McGuire and Molina. Just for fantasy purposes, they are pitchers in the AL East. I don’t get the sense that they will develop into fantasy aces or anything. I have considered trading Montgomery, since you mentioned it. I could actually use your advice on a trade. I was considering offering Jemile Weeks, Mike Montgomery and a draft pick for a $26 Robinson Cano in the last year of his contract. I’ve talked to the guy quite a bit and I think it’s a real possibility. Do you think that would be a good move for the team? Obviously it’s a move to help me compete next year. The downside is only keeping Cano for one year but if I fall out he can be traded for elite prospects. Pedroia and Kinsler will both go for more than $35 next year, so even Cano’s salary is good. It would also add $21 of salary to my team so that needs to be considered on the downside.
I wish I could trade Morales or Escobar but I’m not sure the right match is out there. I extended Morales before last season so people need to see him produce again before anyone would take him I think. It makes perfect sense to trade him though and I’d love to, even though I do believe he could very well be worth $19 each of the next few seasons. There is one manager in our league that owns Taijuan Walker and Jurickson Profar, who I would love to talk to. I guess when it comes right down to it, I am in the constant pursuit of 10 elite prospects that I don’t want to trade.
A few more random questions for you before I leave you alone, for now….
I already have Manny Machado at SS. I like him. I also have Jean Segura. There’s also a chance at acquiring Francisco Lindor in the draft. What I’d really like to do is trade for Profar and pair him with Machado and call it good. What do you think should be done with all this madness?
Do you believe in Eddie Rosario more than some of the players I have? For some reason I became very excited when I heard he was moving the 2B. Enough so that I’m considering using my #8 overall pick on him next year. He just moved to a much better position for fantasy and I’m a believer.
Danny Hultzen or Dylan Bundy if it came down to that? If a hitting prospect from the NL comes over in a trade or someone emerges I may have to choose which player to expose to be being picked at #3 overall. I have picks 1, 2 and 4 in the draft.
Thanks Bradley!
Haha. That username is awesome! It sounds like your league’s rules are almost exactly like mine (except we are 12 teams, NL). What is the limit on how long you can keep players? In my league, you lock in the contract for three years once a player reaches the major leagues. Your roster is absolutely loaded w/ young talent and should be dominant in 2-3 years. Because the league only has eight teams, I’m less certain about 2012 b/c you’ll be relying on so many young players.
My general impression is you could theoretically compete next season, but it would involve a close race where you would be forced to make trades cashing in on lots of prospects during the summer w/ no guarantee you would win. Assuming you can keep guys like Lawrie , Jennings, Hosmer & co at $5 another 3-4 seasons, I would probably give the players one more season to develop. By 2013, your team will be strong enough to compete for several seasons while making minimal moves.
I see the challenge on the minor league roster. Basically, you have eight solid prospects and four first rounders. I’m reluctant to recommend releasing any of those prospects b/c I’d consider them all Top 100 guys, but at the same time, you don’t want to waste the extra first rounders (I have the same problem in my league). If you get stuck releasing prospects, I think the choices should be McGuire and Molina…but I would not be enthusiastic because I like both pitchers.
One idea would be to look into trading Montgomery and/or Banuelos? My reasoning is both guys came into last season as top prospects, and even though they still have a lot of value, their ranking should be lower next season. Now might not be a bad time to trade them assuming you can find a team who places too much emphasis on the rankings heading into last season. Basically, you could package each of them w/ a major leaguer (maybe Escobar and Morales) to pickup major leaguers w/ more favorable contracts.
That team is looking tough! If you get any trade offers, let me know and I’ll be happy to give you some input.
I’ve been working on rebuilding “the worst team in league history” since the middle of 2010. Your rankings have been very helpful with that process. I was hoping to get your overall take on my team. Do you think I have the pieces to win next year? I play in an AL-only, 8-team, auction league with a $270 cap. We can keep 13 major leaguers and 10 minor leaguers. On top of these players I have four 1st round picks in my minor league draft. Everyone in the AL from the 2011 MLB draft is available (except for Bubba Starling) as well as some other prospects in the second half of your 2012 top 100. Should any of these players on the minor league level be released or traded because I can get better prospects in the AL? I’ll probably have close to $150 to spend in my auction to solidify my roster. Any thoughts? Thanks.
C – Travis D’Arnaud $5
1B – Eric Hosmer $5, Kendrys Morales $19
2B – Jemile Weeks $5
SS – Yunel Escobar $9, Manny Machado $5, Jean Segura $5
3B – Brett Lawrie $5
OF – Desmond Jennings $5, Alex Gordon $5, Shin Soo Choo $22, Wil Myers $5
SP – Michael Pineda $5, Max Scherzer $15, Brandon Morrow $14, Chris Sale $12, Manny Banuelos $5, Mike Montgomery $5, Deck McGuire $5, Nestor Molina $5
CL – Joe Nathan $1
As always, great stuff MHz. I agree Rendon offers incredible upside. I watched him play pretty frequently b/c he played here in Houston, and he’s the best amateur player I’ve seen firsthand. I totally know what you mean by ridiculous comps b/c he offers a combination of power and plate discipline that can only be compared to a few players.
My only question is his health. Watching the draft, I was amazed he fell to the #6 spot. Part of me wonders if he fell b/c the reports re: indicated more concerns re: his health. But if I had to guess, he fell b/c the five players taken ahead of him were such premier players teams decided taking a little extra risk on Rendon’s health was not justified. I think Washington got great value, and with a little luck, Rendon/Harper/Zimmerman can form a dangerous combination in the middle of their lineup.
I love Rendon, especially for fantasy. He is the best college hitter to be draft eligible since Mark Teixeira. I wouldn’t be too worried about the HR total last year(6, compared to 26 the previous year), because he hit more doubles and was pitched around A LOT(22 intentional walks, 2 with 1st occupied) this past season and he hit more doubles(20 compared to 12 the previous year).
He is questionable because of the injuries, but he was very open to criticism, was a leader for a very poor Rice lineup. Rendon still led the team in runs scored, SLG%, OB%, SB tied Michael Ratteree for the team lead in 2B and HR. He had well over twice as many walks as anyone else on the team(80), and had more intentional walks(22) than 4 of their starting position players. He’s faced a lot of top pitchers last year and obviously that was an impresive season in production at the plate. This season was pretty impressive as well seeing how he dealt with being pitched around and injury.
The only comps I would make for him would probably sound ridiculous. I’ve seen him primarily swing a metal bat, so once he gets some time with a wood bat his swing should look really nice. Arenado is a nice comp production-wise. If you wanted to get him in a fantasy league, this is a great time to buy low.
Good question. I have heard people compare Rendon to the game’s elite third baseman (Longoria, etc), but that was before last season. At this point, you could arguably compare Rendon and Arenado except that Rendon will draw more walks and perhaps produce better power numbers. Like you said, I think a lot of the questions re: Rendon will be answered depending on whether he can come out healthy.
I like those other picks also! Rendon would be a great pickup, but all of those pitchers offer solid value.
Any comps on Rendon?
I have the 4th pick in my rookie draft and am thinking about taking Bundy or Rendon if available. If not, then Bauer or Hultzen or Darvish.
I think part of the high ranking is based on the huge potential Rendon offers assuming he can remain healthy. He offers a ridiculous combination of power and plate discipline giving him the potential to be a star.
But you are right it’s definitely a problem if the shoulder issues are not resolved. I think his first minor league season will be telling re: his value b/c grabbing Washington got great value getting Rendon at that spot assuming he is healthy.
Just wondering why everyone is still so high on Rendon despite his not so great season last year at Rice. He played in all their games and only had 6 HR. I know he had some shoulder issues but how do we know that that is resolved?
The Marlins are an interesting candidate. With the new park opening next season, they are being really aggressive pursuing free agents.
Have y’all seen Cespedes’ scouting video? It’s ridiculous on several levels. On one hand, he’s an impressive talent. But the video is the baseball version of that Aleksey Vayner “impossible is nothing” video from a few years ago.
http://www.chickenfriedbaseball.com/2011/11/yoenis-cespedes-video.html
Funny comment on that Starling typo! Somebody commented on that earlier and I totally forgot to fix it.
Bubby Starling? It’s funny to think of top prospects as Jewish grandmothers in disguise.
Judging by the way that The Miami Marlins are pursuing FA players, I could totally see them laying down the money for him. That’s who I have my money on.
Speaking of first base prospects, creating a Top 25 at that position has been a challenge. Since most of the people on the comment board are pretty loyal readers, I figure I’ll throw out a preview just to get feedback before publishing the rankings.
The hardest part has been figuring out the final few names! The final six players I listed are Alex Dickerson, Ricky Oropesa, Telvin Nash, Matt Rizzotti, and William Beckwith.
The players I marked as possibilities who missed the cut are: Tyler Moore, O’Koyea Dickson, Jose Osuna, Nick Evans, Austin Gallagher, Cody Hinze, Michael McDade, Ryan Rieger,Mark Canha, Angelo Songco, Jobduan Morales, and KC Hobson. Do any of the cuts offer enough upside to deserve a spot over Rizzotti or Beckwith?
Good call on Dickerson. He offers comparable talent to many of the players listed. Several mock drafts listed him as a potential first rounder coming into his junior season, but his stock dropped slightly leading up to the draft. His pro career seems to have started well, as he posted good numbers and I think BA listed him on their NYP League prospects list.
I am publishing my list of First Base prospects tomorrow and Dickerson was one of the draftees who made the cut. Very good mention!
No Alex Dickerson??? I know he was pushed to 1B, but come on… He should be top 100 from the draft. Top 5 Raw power from the college hitters.
Very good idea, Joe! Ironically, right before I saw this comment, I wrote on the other board about which free agents people thought were overrated and underrated. I am going to work on publishing our first base rankings next week, and after that, I can publish something re: the free agent market.
It’s a really interesting class this season. There are great players at the top of the market w/ Pujols, Fielder, and Reyes. The market is more thinner on pitching and outfielders, meaning Darvish and Cespedes enter free agency at the perfect time. Here’s an interesting article re: Darvish and the posting system…
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/10/sports/baseball/yu-darvish-situation-puts-spotlight-on-japanese-player-posting-system.html
At the end of the article, they mention Aoki asking to be posted. He offers less value than Darvish, but he is a solid outfielder who could be successful over here.
Post idea:
Top 30 Free Agents including Darvish and Cespedes (maybe extending that out with who is looking at him). That one will definitely hit 150+ posts.
The REDS outbid everyone for Chapman, so anything is possible!!
My only issue with the Yanks is, they pay for PROVEN talent, so Cespedes may fall through the cracks as they may undervalue him!!
Yoennis Cespedes has 9 teams looking at getting him…shall we have odds on who gets him?!? IMO it’ll take 30+ mil…Do i have the order correct?
2:1 Yankees
3:1 Phillies
5:1 Marlins
6:1 Blue Jays
6:1 Giants
6:1 Nationals
8:1 Athletics
10:1Indians
20:1Pirates
I realize that Bubba is a silly-enough sounding nickname, but don’t make it worse by calling Starling “Bubby.”
Very good mention, Ryne. Cespedes has been working to establish residency in the Dominican since July, so he should be a free agent soon because I think the process takes about six months.
It’ll be interesting to see the market for Cespedes in free agency. For people in dynasty leagues where you can grab players at any time, it’s definitely worth taking a flyer on Cespedes right now. He was one of the biggest stars in Cuba, and assuming scouts think his skills will translate to America, he should receive a huge contract.
Yoennis Cespedes is about to be declared a free agent FYI.
FYI, was looking at fangraphs today and they posted some really interesting stuff about Yu Darvish this week.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/dont-overpay-for-darvish/
It’ll be interesting too see what happens w/ Darvish. I’ve never liked the posting system, and with a player with Darvish’s talent entering the market, it seems like the system could create huge problems. In Darvish’s case, the bad scenario would be a mid-market team deciding to make a massive upfront bid to secure the negotiating rights thinking they can get Darvish to pitch in America at a reasonable price. The team loses nothing if Darvish rejects the offer and returns to Japan, and even worse, the team has actually benefited (even if it’s not intentional) by preventing Darvish from joining a competing team.
If the parties cannot reach an agreement, it could create a messy conflict w/ the team understandably not wanting to pay $100 million and Darvish’s group understandably complaining the team secured the negotiating rights with no intent of offering a contract on par with what he would receive from another team. Regardless of whether it was true, Darvish might also complain the team secured the bid to prevent him from pitching for a competing team.
Of course, this conflict probably will not happen b/c nothing similar happened when Dice-K came to America. Regardless, I’ve never understood why MLB agrees to a system entitling Darvish’s team to a massive payment instead of taking the position MLB and Nippon are completely separate (i.e., making Darvish an unrestricted free agent)? I probably should have put this comment in a separate post! After reading about Darvish tonight, I wanted to see if anybody else had any thoughts re: who will sign him and whether Darvish going through the posting system causes potential problems?
Very good stuff! It’s good to hear about Hultzen’s solid performance. I was surprised when Seattle took him at #2, but based on Seattle’s recent track record w/ their early picks, I would be even more surprised if the pick does not work out fine.
Good stuff on Levi Michael and Brian Dozier. The Twins are an interesting team to follow. Like the Braves, the Twins were always impressive to watch because they built an elite system without spending heavily largely b/c of great scouting, player development, and having a knack for finding international players in less-scouted places. Even though the Twins system is not bad, it seems to be in a slight “down period” for their standards. It’s interesting looking at the reasons for the decline and what that means. The team’s strategy has not really changed. They remain focused on getting international players (often in less-scouted places), and in the draft, the acquire solid players while rarely handing out massive bonuses.
Looking at Minnesota’s system (and to a lesser degree, Atlanta’s after the top 3), it makes me wonder if it’s becoming more difficult to maintain an elite system without spending heavily on bonuses? Today, many teams (Tor, Tex, Pit, etc) have become much more aggressive scouting players and spending heavily. Also, the growing amount of information presumably makes it harder to find talented players that are unknown to other teams.
That could be wrong. Farm systems are cyclical and it’s inevitable that a system will decline after a run of success. For example, the talent level in Minnesota’s system is arguably slightly down b/c of recent success causing a lower number of top picks and getting slightly less return than they hoped on a few of their recent top picks.
I only went for the rising stars game. You should really consider going. Usually I can go for longer but I was happy with going for the day for the Rising Stars game.
Nick Franklin and Danny Hultzen carry themselves like they belong in MLB. They really owned the game and it was fun to see. I have always loved Franklin’s swing. He looked like he can move Ackley off of 2nd.
The Royals prospects(Myers, Colon, Jeffress) also played well. Not trying to take anything away from them, but Franklin and Hultzenn really carried themselves well the entire night.
What is it with Minnesota and MI propsects? Brian Dozier looks like a utility infielder they are pushing for the starting SS job. Should be interesting to see ho Levi Michael turns out.
I’m starting a fantasy league
http://rallycap.proboards.com/index.cgi
Initial 25 round MLB draft(drafted player has MLB contract), picks cannot be traded
$100 million salary cap, $5 million signing bonus budget(in season free agents)
Initial 5 round MiLB draft, followed by successive rounds of MiLB drafting(haven’t found many people interested in drafting 10+ rounds at once!). MiLB picks can be traded.
That’s a quick overview, you can find out more on the proboards forum. Feel free to ask any questions/criticism/comments there. Thanks.
That’s awesome you are going to the AFL, and I hope Arizona is fun! I definitely need to head down there.
After spending all summer ranking these guys, it would be fun seeing a bunch of the players firsthand.
When I help teams w/ late picks in deep dynasty drafts, I frequently find myself recommending the team take a flyer on well-known players from major college programs who fell in the draft. To some degree, it’s probably because I am more familiar w/ those players from watching a decent amount of college baseball on those extra Fox Sports channels.
When drafting these guys in dynasty leagues, it’s hard to know how much to rely on the draft order (and bonuses) rather than familiarity. For example, even though Charlie Tilson ranks ahead of Esposito, actually picking him in a dynasty league involves some “blind faith” b/c my knowledge of Tilson is basically limited to a few scouting reports and knowing he received a solid bonus from the Cardinals. But with Esposito, there is some value in having seen him play a few times and having a better idea of the concerns.
I was surprised about the Vanderbilt guys as well, but obviously from the players I listed you can tell I am a big fan. Usually reviewing the draft at this point, I’m just looking for players with high floors/constants in good situations. I think Westlake dropped because 1B dropped across the board. I liked him over Oropesa, so it was nice to see him go to a team that selected him with Oropesa on the board.
The Orioles have ton of young pitching talent, and there is very little impeding Jason Esposito and his defense getting to Baltimore. I can see the Orioles looking back at this draft, and it is remembered for Bundy and Esposito.
Same thing with Armstrong, I know he has the back problems, but I love his attitude and the Astros look like a nice spot for him to get a shot as a SP.
I forgot where you asked, but you should go to AFL. I am going this weekend. I wish I had time to go for longer, but I’ll do that for spring training.
Just to throw a name out there, any opinions on Taylor Featherston? Rockies love to draft offensive MI, and he fits the mold.
Yeah, all these “juniors” (Smith, Dunston, Dante Bichette) remind me those afternoons when baseball would come on TBS/WGN instead of “Saved by the Bell” were a long time ago! Haha.
Really like those suggestions, MHZ. I am going to work on a second version of this list that contains a few more sleepers and other players I missed, so if anybody has players they like, definitely list them on the comment board. Especially like the suggestions on Armstrong and Esposito. I was surprised there was not more demand for the Vanderbilt guys in this year’s draft (Gray, Garvin, Armstrong, Esposito, and Westlake). Tampa signed Garvin really cheaply, but if I remember correctly, there was some sort of medical issue that affected his bonus? Baltimore drafted Esposito surprisingly late, and they were able to sign him at what seemed like a reasonable price.
Good mention re: Stilson. He would have been drafted much higher, but he suffered a shoulder injury a few weeks before the draft. I’m not sure whether the injury turned out to be serious, but assuming he is healthy, he is a great bargain in the draft.
Washington’s draft was really interesting. Imagine if somebody would have said a few years ago the same team would get Strasburg, Harper, Rendon and Purke?They have invested heavily in the draft, but hopefully, several of those guys will reach their potential and form the core of a really competitive team.
Rendon, Goodwin, Mayer AND Purke…I am still in awe of the Nationals draft and their farm system…YES, this is a JAYS fan saying “wow what a farm system” in regards to the Nationals system, so it must be very impressive!
Nice list Brad. This is a tough list to do, because I love Jason Esposito, but on the other hand Kyle Kubitza can fly up this list if the Braves get the right coaches working with him.
Three names I would add are Tommy La Stella(270 PA, 9.6% BB%, 10.4% K%, 0.216 ISO @ A ball), Zeke DeVoss(168 PA, 19% BB%, 16.7% K%, 14 SB @ A- ball), and Curt Casali(136 PA, 13.9% BB%, 10.2% K%, @A&A- ball). Neither La Stella or DeVoss look to stick at 2B, but those bats look nice. Chase Larsson also had a nice showing in Rookie ball. Just hesitant to name him with the rest since he stayed there.
Brad, I think the Braves are going to drive you nuts with all of the relievers they took in the draft! Cody Martin(33.1 IP, 4.3% BB%, 38.0% K%, @Rk&A ball) and Navery Moore(fastball) are two I would point out, but they drafted plenty.
This will be nice to read, but I think you’re being a bit conservative on Jack Armstrong. I’d bump him anywhere from 5-10 spots. He can be top 20 easily if he proves he can hold up as a starting pitcher.
John Stilson should definatly be somewhere on that list. Great sleeper going into the 2012 season.
Dwight smith jr, Shawn dunston jr…. Any word an Vance Law jr?
Good call on those Blue Jays, Geo! At this point, this list is less-researched than I’d like. It’s based on a combination of draft position, signing bonus, and my opinion of the player. There are a few “tough to justify” rankings, so if you see a ranking that looks off, post on the comment board.
It’s impressive how many solid players Toronto added in this draft! Dwight Smith Jr. is the son of the outfielder from the 90’s. That makes me feel old b/c I remember watching Dwight, Sr. on TBS back in the day!
Totally agree Norris was a first round talent. We could rank him a few spots higher? My impression of the HS pitchers in the draft was you had two real “5 star” prospects in Bundy & Bradley. Then, Norris ranks in that group a step below w/ Fernandez, Norris, Guerrieri, Beede, Howard, etc. Even though it would have been nice to sign Beede, getting Norris was great because Toronto acquired the same value in a later round.
Purke is definitely an interesting prospect. He was a great in HS and his freshman year at TCU. The question is whether those concerns re: health and velocity were overblown. The AFL numbers could have been better, but he easily has the potential to breakout into a solid pitcher.
Bradley Marquez should probably crack this list..
Because most of these players are so far away, i suppose it doesn’t really matter, just some homerism kicking in…I would have figured Norris to be ranked closer to Jed Bradley…Norris would have been a top 15 pick if he didn’t have a high signing bonus demand at the time of the draft, he was considered an unsignable. Putting a 2nd rounder in the top 20 sounds ridiculous, but i think for ceiling and top potential, he should be considered!
The biggest coin flip in this draft is Purke…He can easily be the best player in this years draft or the biggest bust!! For players that have a strong farm system already, he would be a good risk to take!
Love reading your lists! Is that Dwight smith related to THE Dwight smith?
Also we have started a 14 team 20 keeper league, and just need one more team to start drafting! Somebody hit me up!
Rowesemail@yahoo.com
Geo where would you rank Norris? I see Purke, Meyer and Fernandez as the only possibilities for him to leapfrog over. I definitely dont see him as a better option than Bradley or Barnes as far as the pitchers go. I’m not super familiar with Cron or Nimmo, so my guy would put Norris about #20.
I am a bit surprised where Daniel Norris is ranked?!? Wasn’t he the best highschool LHP in the draft, possibly one of the best highschool pitching prospects period?!?!
You put Joe Musgrove on the list, but not Kevin Comer?!?! IMO, Musgrove was picked ahead of his slot knowing he would be an inexpensive sign at 500K as a supplimental pick. Comer I think has the higher upside from what I have researched.