Next on our position-by-position analysis of the top prospects in baseball we take a look at first base. Here is how we would rank the top 25 first base prospects. As always, feedback is appreciated so let us know which players you believe are ranked too high or too low.
1. Yonder Alonso-Reds
2. Anthony Rizzo-Padres
3. Jonathan Singleton-Astros
4. Chris Parmelee-Twins
5. C.J. Cron-Angels
6. Matt Adams-Cardinals
7. Chris Carter-Athletics
8. Dan Vogelbach-Cubs
9. Miles Head-Red Sox
10. Aaron Westlake-Tigers
11. Lars Anderson-Red Sox
12. Matt Davidson-Diamondbacks
13. Neftali Soto-Reds
14. Matt Curry-Pirates
15. Joe Terdoslavich-Braves
16. Brett Pill-Giants
17. David Cooper-Blue Jays
18. Chris Marrero-Nationals
19. Alex Dickerson-Pirates
20. Hunter Morris-Brewers
21. Ricky Oropesa-Giants
22. Telvin Nash-Astros
23. Michael McDade-Blue Jays
24. Matt Rizzotti-Philiess
25. Andy Wilkins-White Sox
Also Considered: William Beckwith-Braves, Chase Davidson-Astros, Tyler Moore-Nationals, Jose Osuna-Pirates, Nick Evans-Mets
Jordanny Valdespin, Mets has nice power and SB numbers. Seems to be under the radar at 2B.
Bonus: Edwar Cabrera Col misses a lot of bats and may be a nice #3 starter with fairly high Ks.
Yes….I can explain.
The Reds made the Padres an offer they couldn’t refuse.
If Volquez rebounds “at all”,there won’t be too much drop off from Latos….then you add the highest rated firstbase prospect,one of the highest Catching prospects AND a good back of the Pen prospect…..how do you say no?
You can not have too many good players.Especially the Padres…and ESPECIALLY bats.
They can not entice free agent hitters due to the Petco factor so you can never turn down that kind of talent.
I don’t think Rizzo’s poor hundred and a quarter AB’s in the majors played much of a role but you never know.
Now…..you try to turn Rizzo into a blue chip SS prospect.
The Padres system is now VERY deep other than SS and possibly relief arms.
Relief arms can be had at almost any time.There are very few pitchers who wouldn’t come to SD for the same,and sometimes even less,money.
So,we take a surplus(1B) and fill a hole(SS).
I wouldn’t be totally surprised if Rizzo is traded and a SS isn’t involved but if they aren’t completely blown away,as they were in the Latos deal,they will just put Rizzo in AAA and wait for more offers.
doesn’t make much sense what the Padres did getting Alonso when they have Rizzo. can anyone explain?
I would place Goldy among the “big three,” probably in the two spot behind Alonso. My only moderate concern are the high strikeout rates, but he has a starting role in Arizona and there is no doubt he can hit for substantial power.
Great suggestions, Andrew. Yeah, trying to find those last spots at second base involves looking at a lot of undersized minor leaguers who hit .280 w/ a few home runs, a few steals, and respectable plate discipline. All those guys could theoretically establish themselves as major leaguers, but it’s challenging trying to determine who might get an opportunity and/or whether their numbers will translate in the big leagues. Then, there are the guys who have a certain statistic that stands out amidst other concerns (Jarek Cunningham’s home runs, Kobernus’ steals, etc).
I think Gennett is definitely worth listing. He came into last season w/ some prospect buzz, and if I remember correctly, he rallied in the second half after a slow start.
Understanding that Paul goldschmidt has lost his minor league status, if he were still on the minor league roster, where would he have probably fit into this list and what is you take on him brad?
then if you really want to get crazy, matt antonelli
yeah for 2B you should try to do a rundown of the baseball rat dudes that are out there – lombardozzi’s one, then guys like scooter gennett. there’s probably more of them. short guys with contact + discipline but not much power or speed. they get overlooked
Great suggestions, y’all. I definitely have Gumbs and Perio on the first draft of the list. I listed Tejada and Hernandez last season, and even though both players’ season could have gone better, they might be worth listing again based on bounceback potential. I’m only vaguely familiar w/ Amaya, but I’ll definitely look at him more closely.
What do y’all think on these guys: Cole Figueroa (Rays), Tyler Bortnick and Connor Crumbliss (Athletics), and Steve Lombardazzi (Nationals)? It’s going to be a challenge filling those last spots, and realistically, I think it’s a crapshoot picking five of about 50 lesser-known prospects who might offer some value but are not great fantasy options for various reasons.
Hamilton is tough to grade. He is one of the fastest prospects in recent memory, and the question is whether he’ll hit enough to be a productive major leaguer. Last season, he got lots of attention chasing 100 steals. But to me, what was equally encouraging were slow, steady improvements in his month-to-month numbers (getting on base, etc). It’s hard to rank him too aggressively right now b/c he still has a long way to go, but for fantasy purposes, the stolen base potential is enormous assuming he hits enough to be an everyday player.
I am going to go ahead and list Rosario at 2B. For the most part, I try to base the positions on where the prospect played a majority of games last season. But switching Rosario lets people know there is another option at 2B, and the switch is beyond speculation. I considered listing a few other potential movers at 2B (Hamilton, etc) just to balance the rankings. But I decided against it b/c it’s often hard to know if a prospect will change positions.
Great comment on Arizona’s plans for Borchering and Davidson. That plan makes a lot of sense b/c it gives both players a more realistic chance to find regular playing time in Arizona assuming they keep improving. Plus, if circumstances change, they can always move one of the players back to first base.
Brad,
Hows about Cesar Hernandez in the Phillies organization, and don’t forget about Eddie Rosario. Oscar Tejeda in Boston’s system is also said to end up at 2B.
A good sleeper may be Gioskar Amaya ..and one last name ..Noah Perio from the Marlins
For 2nd base, what are you thoughts on Billy Hamilton? I know he has been playing SS in the minors, but I had been under the assumption that he would be Phillips replacement at 2nd.
Also, Twins are trying Eddie Rosario at second. If he can stick, he should be pretty high up your rankings. Another possibility would be Angelo Gumbs of the Yankees.
I saw in the Baseball America prospect list for Arizona that Borchering is being moved to the outfield (presumably because they think that Goldschmidt has the first base job for the foreseeable future). They thought that Davidson could stick at third, and he should get more time there if Borchering has been moved.
FYI, I started working on the Top 25 second base prospects. I’ve been looking through it tonight, and second base is thinner than first base. Most of the organizations have nothing at second base, presumably b/c their best potential 2B’s are currently playing other positions.
Unlike last season w/ Ackley/Lawrie/Kipnis, there are no big name 2Bs who can be reasonably expected to produce in the major leagues next year. At this point, the no-brainer prospects seem like two college players from last year’s draft (Wong, Spangenberg) and a number of younger guys like Schoop, Ogur, Torreyes, Deshields, Sean Coyle, Ryan Brett, Jonathan Galvez, Tony Wolters, Taylor Lindsay, etc.
If anybody owns a semi-obscure 2B prospect in a deep dynasty league they believe has some upside, definitely throw out the name and I’ll look at the player. Also, how would y’all value Jeff Kobernus? I was not tracking him closely last season, and even though his OBP remains too low, it’s interesting how some of the numbers improved last season in A+ (53 steals, a little more power, etc). I am going to spend the next few days working on those final 10-12 names and then publish the rankings later this week.
http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111128&content_id=26046438&vkey=news_hou&c_id=hou
Did y’all see the ‘stros fired Ed Wade and Tal Smith? It’s no fun seeing people get fired, but ultimately, I think the team made the right decision. Between 2007 and 2009 (and before that), we really set ourselves back by trying to compete despite it being clear the team needed to rebuild.
Who do y’all think we will hire as the new GM? Hiring Andrew Friedman would be an easy decision assuming he would return to Houston. I read we are considering several candidates from the Rangers front office, which sounds like a decent plan.
What’s up y’all,
Goldschmidt’s huge season affects Davidson and Borchering’s value. Goldschmidt will have the opportunity to become Arizona’s starting first baseman, and if it works out, it will be much harder for Davidson and Borchering to find a role. But at this point, the biggest concern w/ those two players going forward will be maintaining their power numbers against more advanced pitching without increasing their strikeouts.
Great point on Terdoslavich. He partially spent last season at first base because the Braves had Joe Leonard playing third. Assuming Terdoslavich can play sufficient defense to stick at third, it helps his value b/c the presence of Freeman makes it tough to envision him getting playing time at first base for the Braves.
The more I read about Aguilar, there is no strong justification for leaving him off this list. He showed incredible improvement last season, and even though it’s a small sample size, the AFL performance indicates the performance can continue going forward.
Anderson’s ranking might be a little aggressive. His value has definitely declined since 2009, but he is still only 23 and posted respectable numbers in AAA last season (80 walks, etc). It will be tough for him to find an opportunity in Boston, but he could be a player who just takes a little extra time to find a role in the major leagues.
I am a Parmlee fan too. He is a great fit in leagues that place increased emphasis on proximity b/c—depending on Morneau’s health—he could be an under the radar prospect who will receive substantial playing time next season. I originally rated him behind Adams/Cron/Carter, but at the last minute, we decided to rank him more aggressively based on his chance to get an opportunity this year.
I am definitely familiar w/ Kody Hinze b/c he’s a ‘stros prospect. He is a local player we signed out of a junior college. He produced huge numbers in the California League—and even more impressively—followed up w/ a respectable performance after the promotion to AA. If Wallace falters, it’s not out of the question Hinze could get a shot depending on what happens w/ Carlos Lee.
hey ixnay on the parmelee talk, i’m trying to snag him cheap in a draft
How does Goldschmidt effect the projections of Davidson and Borchering?
Terdoslavich will play 3B next year in the Braves system.
Lars Anderson!!!
Are you kidding?
For a guy who didn’t do a whole lot in High-A, Aguilar’s numbers in the AFL were off the charts. Especially the patience he showed, which has been an issue for him in the past. I agree with the comment above. I think Aguilar has to be in the top half of this list.
Terdoslavich’s swing is beautiful. Supposedly he has plus power just has a line drive approach. I think there’s a lot to like there as well. He’s just not playing first for the Braves.
Not saying these guys should be on your list but what do you think of them?
Kody Hinze (1B/HOU) : Last year as a 23 year old he tore up HiA and AA combining for a .306 AVG with 29 homers as a year. Next year he will be 24 and will probably have the oppurtunity to prove himself at a higher level.
Matt Hague (1B/PIT) : He was 25 last year and will be 26 at the start of next year so he doesnt have much of a ceiling but he hit .309 with 12 homers last year in AAA. He might have a shot to earn a spot on the team.
Great call on Guzman. I thought he was being developed at OF, but if his future is at first base, he absolutely belongs on this list. Totally agree some of those international signings indicate signing bonuses are well below market value. Imagine how much Bryce Harper would have received if he were on the open market?
What do y’all think of subjecting international players to the draft? I can see both sides. On one hand, there are concerns the talent pool will be reduced if a player has less financial incentive to play baseball. On the other hand, it does not make a lot of sense treating international players differently than American prospects. For example, even though it makes sense for them financially, Cuban players going through a long process of establishing residency in another country when it’s clear they are ultimately planning to come to America indicates the current system is pretty bizarre.
You see what a bargain teams get on young talent when someone ends up being a free agent for whatever reason. The Rangers paid $15million for Leonys Martin, who was never seen as being a truly elite prospect.
As an entirely different suggestion for your 1st base list – Rangers bonus baby Ronald Guzman has huge potential, and is being developed solely as a first baseman.
For sure. Even though part of me likes how the new system might give teams greater incentive to draft the best player notwithstanding financial considerations, I think capping amateur bonuses while placing zero regulation on major league payrolls will have an adverse impact on the competitive makeup of the game.
The great part about major league baseball’s current system is it gives clever small market teams a method to compete w/ the larger teams. But it feels like the new CBA attempts to close the loopholes while making no real consideration for how these teams are supposed to remain competitive. I think the clever teams will still find new ways to compete, but the new rules make it tougher…which is the opposite of what baseball should do.
Good mention on Lahair, Simon. He exceeded his prospect eligibility, but he posted monster numbers in AAA last year. If Pena leaves, he could get an opportunity next season depending on what happens in free agency.
yep agree, i think the low budget teams who want to win got the worst of it. The really cheapos have made it worse for them. I didn’t realize the international free agency cap. That hurts the small markets too. Along with now not having to give up compensation picks, the big market teams have made out like bandits. How did Bud Selig let this happen. I coud see this causing big issues down the line.
Agree this would not have passed without support from some of the small market teams. I think a number of the teams see increasing bonuses as “runaway inflation,” and hate the concept of paying millions of dollars to inexperienced players.
I think their hesitance is wrong primarily because the contracts the draftees receive lock up their services for several years for substantially less than what they would receive on the open market. It’s true many of the investments will not work, but if teams spread the bonuses among multiple players and apply solid scouting, the return on the successes will outweigh the losses on the failures.
In the long run, the rules will benefit the large market teams and the teams that would not have paid overslot bonuses. But on the whole, it feels like the teams that don’t want to pay the bonuses are hurting teams trying to operate their team efficiently.
The number of small market teams seems to be as equal if not greater in amount than the large market teams and somehow the CBA draft changes passed so it is partly some of the small market teams own fault for agreeing to it. Bud Selig doesn’t make the decision on it. Maybe some of the small market teams were seeing that they were choosing less than the best player available with their top pick because they thought they could not sign the better player for their asking price and as such the better players were slipping to the better teams later in the draft and that is why they agreed to this. I think now we see the best players being taken where they should be taken so seems more fair to me actually?
A thought for the 1B list – not really a prospect, but Bryan LaHair of the Cubs has done well lately, including in the AFL, and he has a chance of getting the big league job this year if the Cubs are in a rebuild mode.
Totally agree, Jed. These limits might make more sense if there was a salary cap limiting what teams could spend on major leaguers. But only putting teams ”on an even playing field” in the draft will not help small market teams b/c it restricts the best way a clever team can compete w/ the Yankees on a limited budget.
Agreed this does not help the Twins. As a ‘stros fan, it’s frustrating this deal happened the week after the ownership changed hands. Over the past five years, this might have helped the ‘stros because we generally avoided overslot bonuses. Now, it’s a disaster because the new rules limit our ability to acquire the influx of amateur talent needed to improve our team.
The CBA has its ups and downs.. as for the DRAFT huge down side!!!
If they are seriously going to cap the draft then they need to be capping MLB rosters as well!!! I know thats not going to ever happen with the players union in place and holding firm.. but its really not fair at all to smaller markets. So now the smaller markets cant build through the farm system by outspending larger markets (on pieces they can actually afford) and they cant compete with teams like the Yankees or Red Sox or Phillies on the FA markets because they cant afford half of the big names. As a Twins fan this makes me puke!! This makes the draft entirely less intriguing now…
Totally agree, Simon! It seems like baseball tries to give the impression amateur spending has gotten “out of control” because big market teams make it tougher for smaller market teams to rebuild by handing out huge bonuses. That was maybe true w/ the Yankees 50 years ago, but today, the draft bonuses are the primary factor allowing small market teams to compete.
Dividing revenue between players and owners is an ongoing struggle (FYI, “Lords of the Realm” by John Helyar is an awesome book). Veteran players are treated more fairly today b/c they have a powerful union, but needless to say, many of the concessions come at the expense of amateur players b/c they have basically no representation. Here, MLB should realize the cost of a less competitive league is potentially much greater than the money they will save under the new system.
What really frustrates me is the new system is so BAD for Astros. Ironically, the ‘stros have been one of the most unwilling teams to spend on overslot bonuses, so I am not sure how they view the new agreement (especially because we have new ownership). If they supported this new system, it would be the equivalent of “a chicken supporting Colonel Sanders.”
Robinson has some potential, but the problem is the presence of Hosmer and Butler will make it difficult to get playing time. But most of the players we listed have the same problem. He is old for a prospect which limits his value, but he is the same age as Brett Pill.
I think his fantasy impact is limited at this point, but at the same time, I would say his value is basically interchangable w/ the players at the end of this list (and in the also considered group).
Also, curbing spending on amateur players is important because the owners want more money for themselves.
CBA is a bad mistake, at least in terms of the draft provisions and the international free agent stuff. There is still this perception that it’s big market teams who overspend on the draft/IFAs, which is inaccurate. It’s smart teams that overspend. As an example under the new system, the Pirates, who are not really the evil big spending team, would probably have still ended up with Taillon and Cole, but would have had nothing left in their pot to sign players like Stetson Allie and Josh Bell, who they desperately need if they are to rebuild.
The changes that the CBA will make seem to me to spread out young talent more evenly across all 30 clubs. In the past, clubs who spent a lot of time and money on youngsters got more talent, which is essential to rebuild and compete as a small market team. To be honest, if I was the Os, I think I would just give up under this CBA. There is no way to compete now.
I’m actually not that worried about the 2-sport guys. If the figures that are being quoted are right – about $7.2mill for 1.1, $6.2 for 1.2 down to about $1.6 for the last pick of the first round – then many or most of these guys will still sign. Bubba Starling, for example, would still have got a very good offer. It’s the guys like Josh Bell who would not have signed under the new rules.
The other thing is that changes like this generally make baseball less attractive for youngsters to play when they have other alternatives, which makes it harder to spread the game globally. As an example, the Rays have an academy in Brazil, where they will be trying to compete with soccer for the best youngsters. A soccer player who is good enough can make ridiculous money if he gets a move to a big European club aged 19 or 20. Even as a star locally, soccer is probably going to be more lucrative than signing up to play baseball. The same is true in European countries like Holland and Italy where they are trying to develop the game.
I know he’s considered “old,” but do you think that Clint Robinson has some potential, perhaps at least as a DH?
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/visualizing-the-cbas-impact-on-draft-spending/
FYI, above is a good article discussing the effects of the new CBA provisions on draft spending. What do you all think of the changes?
Personally, I think the changes are a mistake. I have no idea why “curbing spending on amateur players” is such a priority for major league baseball. Realistically, what makes no sense is when a team w/ no real chance to compete invests millions of dollars in veteran free agents. Astros fans have a firsthand appreciation for this after money that needed to go toward the future went to Pedro Feliz, Brandon Lyon, Carlos Lee, etc.
I think it’s partially because amateur players are not represented when these agreements are negotiated. The problem here is the agreement could adversely affect the competitive balance of the league. The monopsony power in the draft is one of the few things allowing smaller market teams to remain competitive, and these rules make it more difficult for smaller market teams to compete through the farm system.
Great call on Aguilar, Jed. He posted solid numbers this season, and then posted decent numbers in limited time at the AFL. Not sure about putting him Top 10, but I think not having him listed is probably a minor snub.
I like the idea of listing players who might end up at first base. For the most part, “likely suspects” to make the switch are power hitters trying to stick at catcher, third base, and outfield. For example, one candidate off hand is Mike Olt. Unlike most potential switches, Olt offers sufficient defense to remain at 3B. But with the presence of Beltre, there is an outside shot the Rangers might decide to place Olt in the lineup at first assuming they need help there and Olt is hitting really well.
Like those suggestions, Andy! I rounded out the Top 10 w/ Vogelbach, Head, and Westlake. Vogelbach and Head were both elite HS prospects offering substantial power potential. But both are fairly speculative and far away from the major leagues. Detroit drafted Westlake in the third round. He was a very solid college player at Vanderbilt, and his pro career has started off well. But Top 10 is a little aggressive b/c I’m 50/50 he offers enough upside to justify having him that much higher than Dickerson and Oropesa.
The past few seasons, Detroit has drafted some of my favorite college players from the southeast (Smyly, Westlake, McCann, etc). I was also a fan of Bryan Holaday from TCU. I can understand the logic on other teams passing because of the limited upside, but at the same time, the Tigers grabbed a number of experienced players who can hopefully provide compliments to their “big name” players. It will be interesting to see how those picks works, because hopefully, a few of those players will offer more upside than anticipated.
I also noticed that you didn’t include Jesus Aguilar (Cle) on this list… I think he would crack my top 10
The other way I’ve seen lists like this done is including people who will most likely have to move to a particular position in time. For example, Wilmer Flores will never be a big league SS, so he should be included in the list for whichever position he is likely to end up at. I think thats probably harder to do, but gives more useful lists.
Re: Davidson and Borchering.
Borchering projects more power than Davidson but Davidson is the better third basemen. But that’s just a quick assessment.
I agree Parmelee is a bit high. Considering the dynasty league aspect, id think ceiling should play a higher role than proximity. I’d personally but Parmelee between Davidson and Pill. But then again I’d remove Davidson and replace him with Borchering.
I’m not too familiar with Head or Westlake so placing Anderson amongst them is hard for me to evaluate. I think dropping Parmelee down to about 12, and making Cron, Adams, Carter and Vogelbach #’s 4-7. From 8 down is pretty much a coin flip, but I’d lean towards Borchering and Davidson getting the higher nod with Anderson rounding out the top 10.
Anyone have anything on Head or Westlake that would make a case for them to be top 10?
Random question: how would y’all value Chris Carter and Lars Anderson? Both players are making a victory lap on the prospect list, so even though they are familiar names, they are tough to rank?
Carter had a great opportunity to carve out a role in Oakland last season, but he struggled after being promoted. Brandon Allen will get the first shot, but Carter still offers huge power and could reestablish himself given another opportunity.
Anderson’s production started dropping at the more advanced levels of the minor leagues. He still has a chance to be effective, but the big question is whether he can get an opportunity. Gonzalez will be Boston’s first baseman for the foreseeable future, so it’ll probably take a new team or an injury for Anderson to get an extended opportunity.
Totally agree, Jed! There is not much value at first base, partially b/c teams are so reluctant to put top prospects at first if there is any chance they can play another position. There is a clear top 3, and then it’s a mix of younger guys, fallen prospects, and guys who produced solid numbers but might not get a role. Who to place in the last few spots is a total crapshoot! 2B will be thin also, but after that, the talent picks up at SS, 3B, and OF.
Good suggestion re: Parmlee, Simon. I am not sure how much upside he offers, but his strongest attribute is he might get a chance to carve out a role this season assuming Morneau cannot get healthy. Nevertheless, I think he can easily rank behind Cron and Adams.
Thanks Andy! Good call on Borchering and Davidson. They switched between 1B and 3B this season, but both played a majority of their games at first. I probably should have listed Borchering here also b/c this list is thin, and I’m not sure he’ll crack the top 25 at 3B. How would you value Borchering compared to Davidson? Both players are similar in that they offer power…but w/ lots of strikeouts. I think Davidson ranks higher now, but AA will be a major test for both players.
This has to be the weakest the 1B prospects list has ever been… there are no big names on this list aside from Singleton, Alonso, and Rizzo.
The one guys I like ..and hes only mentioned in your Also Noted section.. Jose Osuna! But hes a long ways off yet..
If you check out fangraphs breakdown of Arizona’s top 10 specs, there are multiple reasons to think Davidson stays at 3B and Borchering ends up at 1B long term. Just a heads up when you look back and review these rankings. Otherwise, not many disagreements in the overall list. Good job again.
Not sure if Parmelee has the ceiling to be as high as four here. Terdoslavich is another one whose ceiling may not be high enough to play as a big league first baseman – I think guys who could, if everything breaks right, could hold down a job for a number of years, have to be higher than those who just don’t have that potential.
FYI, sorry about the slow update y’all! Flint and I spent awhile working on first base, but we got tied up on non-baseball stuff right before we were about to publish. I promise the updates will be more frequent! I am already working on version 2 of the top 100, and I’ll start working on the top second base prospects soon.