Below are the Top 50 Outfield prospects. I decided to publish these a little more quickly just so we can publish the Top 100 reasonably soon. As always, feedback is appreciated so let us know which players you think are rated too high or too low.
1. Bryce Harper—Nationals
2. Mike Trout—Angels
3. Yoennis Cespedes—Free Agent (Cuba)
4. Wil Myers—Royals
5. Bubba Starling—Royals
6. Oscar Tavares—Cardinals
7. Gary Brown—Giants
8. Jorge Soler—Free Agent (Cuba)
9. Jake Marisnick—Blue Jays
10. Christian Yelich—Marlins
11. Leonys Martin—Rangers
12. Rymer Liriano—Padres
13. Michael Choice—Athletics
14. Anthony Gose—Blue Jays
15. Brett Jackson—Cubs
16. George Springer—Astros
17. Josh Bell—Pirates
18. Starling Marte—Pirates
19. Matt Szczur—Cubs
20. Mason Williams—Yankees
21. Bryce Brentz—Red Sox
22. Tim Wheeler—Rockies
23. Oswaldo Arcia—Twins
24. Robbie Grossman—Pirates
25. Brandon Jacobs—Red Sox
26. Charlie Blackmon—Rockies
27. Domingo Santana—Astros
28. Brandon Nimmo—Mets
29. Brian Goodwin—Nationals
30. Mikie Mahtook—Rays
31. Marcell Ozuna—Marlins
32. Ravel Santana—Yankees
33. Grant Green—Athletics
34. Aaron Hicks—Twins
35. Elier Hernandez—Royals
36. Brandon Guyer—Rays
37. Ronald Guzman—Rangers
38. Jackie Bradley, Jr—Red Sox
39. Nomar Mazara—Rangers
40. Alfredo Silverio—Dodgers
41. Joe Benson—Twins
42. Drew Vettleson—Rays
43. AJ Pollock—Diamondbacks
44. Cesar Puello—Mets
45. Jaff Decker—Padres
46. LJ Hoes—Orioles
47. Caleb Gindl—Brewers
48. Trayce Thompson—White Sox
49. Donavan Tate—Padres
50. Brett Eibner—Royals
Yeah, Mitchell had a great season in 2011. The problem is, at age 26, he is a perhaps a little old for the prospect list. But I like the suggestion. To some degree, older minor leaguers w/ great statistics perhaps get excluded more than they should from the rankings. Lucas Duda is a good example of a prospect who was perhaps devalued too much based on age.
We’ll see what happens w/ Mitchell. Ideally, he can get an opportunity soon on a younger Oakland team. But it’ll be tough b/c Oakland has Crisp/Smith/Reddick plus a fair amount of younger competition which will be arriving in 2012 and 2013
(Choice, Carter, Green, Taylor, etc).
Brett Eibner over Jermaine Mitchell?
Yeah, the Houston Medical Center was probably happy to hear about F-Mart moving here! Haha. Ideally, the ’stros are getting a talented player who can develop into a productive player assuming we can find a way to keep him healthy. But I’m not sure how the various medical issues will affect him long term (perhaps hurt his speed, etc). Regardless, it’s a nice buy low pickup b/c he’ll add depth and it’s no big deal if it doesn’t work.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens w/ Springer? He could get a shot in early-2013 assuming he does really well next year, but it would not surprise me if the ’stros are patient w/ him because there is no hurry to promote him.
Good article about the ’stros OF situation. We have a few options, but I think JD Martinez will get a starting spot.
http://www.astroscounty.com/?m=1
F-Mart games played(including MLB in parentheses):
2006: 76
2007: 63
2008: 90
2009: 45(74)
2010: 75(84)
2011: 63(74)
He’s got to stay healthy, but nice signing for the Astros. I really liked him coming up.
Hopefully Springer will be opening day 2013 starting CF, it’d help my fantasy chances a ton!
Definitely isn’t going to hurt and the Astros can take the risk. What do you think there OF is going to be Opening Day?
Did y’all see the ’stros picked up F-Mart? What do y’all think? It’s one of those rare moves I really like from our perspective even if it’s a longshot it’ll pay off. F-Mart is still pretty young, and we can afford to take a risk.
Thanks for the input the guys!!! I plan on keeping Lester and Grandyman for sure… I really like Romero too but since it’s such a homer-RBI happy league I feel its smarter to keep one of my hitters instead. Romero could wind up winning 20 games if the Jays play up to the hype and his stuff remains the same.. but that AL East is so scary good! It just doesn’t seem likely.. I am very high on Chris Sale. I hate the White Sox organization though when it comes to developing players.. but Sale has the look and feel of a poor mans Randy Johnson. I think if Chapman were a closer he’d be a lock for me to keep.. he has unbelievable stuff but such poor command. If he had one year with Dave Duncan just to work on mechanics and his command he could be crazy good!
Christopher Hawkins is another nice Blue Jay for the watch list.
Jed -
1. Justin Upton, OF
2. Troy Tulowitzki, SS
3. Andrew McCutchen, OF
4. Curtis Granderson, OF
5. Ricky Romero, SP
6. Jon Lester, SP
7. Michael Pineda, SP
8. Drew Storen, CL
9. Chase Utley, 2B
This is what I think I would do in your shoes. Obviously Sale and Chapman have high upsides but Romero and Lester are proven top level starters. It’s not like either of them is even old. I understand not keeping Butler because he’s a DH or maybe 1B at best, which is deep. Moustakas didn’t show enough last year to be worthy. If you believe in him then you could draft him back. Perez clearly isn’t on the same level as these other players right now. For me it came down to Utley versus Sale for the final spot. I’m not sure Utley can stay healthy anymore but he plays a premium position and has always proven very valuable in fantasy. It’s all a matter of how “done” you feel Utley is. For what it’s worth, I like Sale as a starter more than Chapman. Obviously either one of them are guarenteed keepers if they were closers, which I don’t see happening at the moment. Hope this helps some.
Jed, Granderson and Romero…Romero is an ace in the making and has consistent KK totals.
Jed,
Saw a question on the forum that is right in your department. Simon plays in a league w/ 28 teams, and he has a three round international free agent draft.
http://www.deepleagues.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=280
Basically, the draft consists of players from outside the United States who are signed to a major league team. Needless to say, the names will start getting pretty obscure once the first 40-50 players are gone? I don’t follow the younger international players as closely as I should (see listing Ronald Guzman at the wrong position). Who are some of those international players you follow that aren’t as well known? Ex: sorta like those guys from the Cubs(Amaya & Co).
Jed, I agree w/ Kyle regarding keeping Granderson. Even if your league places a little less value on SP, I would also keep Lester. What about trading some of the other players you are not planning to keep? I think you have more than nine players offering good renewable value, so ideally, you could package a few of those players to acquire another solid renewal.
Great thoughts on Myers. I started working on the Top 100 tonight, and he is one of the toughest players to value. Last season’s numbers could have been better, but there are tons of reasons to believe those numbers are misleading. His AFL performance was definitely impressive, and he struggled w/ injuries. I think there is a strong chance he has a big season in AAA, but coming into the season, the question is how much to increase his value beyond the statistics based on those expectations.
Yelich is a solid prospect, Brad. The Marlins drafted him in the first round last season from a HS in California, and he had a terrific first season offering a solid combination of power, speed, and walks. He is still young, and like most younger prospects, the question is whether those numbers will translate at more advanced levels. But at this point, I am planning to rank him in the middle of our top 100 prospects.
Great stuff re: the Jays prospects, Geo! It’s amazing how many young players are in that system. Part of me agrees w/ Ryne’s suggestion re: Ravel Santana. He is an intriguing prospects, but at this point, there is not that much distinguishing him from other high upside prospects (such as the players in Toronto’s system) to justify taking him over more established prospects.
Good question re: where Domonic Brown would rank. He is tough to value because—despite still offering substantial upside—his value has been declining for the past 18 months when he was almost unanimously ranked among the game’s top prospects. I read some reports indicating Philly plans to put him in AAA for a substantial portion of the season, and even though the patience might be beneficial, it would be nice to short-term production. I would probably value him somewhere in the middle of the Top 10 OF’s probably behind Cespedes and Myers, but ahead of Starling?
If you could Jed I’d go Lester and Granderson. And if you could, I’d swap out Chris Sale for Romero.
IMO I would go with Lester Mous and Romero and not keep Chapman.
Guys,
I have a question for anyone who feels to chime in on ..
I get to keep 9 guys in my keeper league and I’ve narrowed it down to the final two spots..
I’m keeping these guys:
Troy Tulowtzki
Justin Upton
Andrew McCutchen
Drew Storen …saves are big in this league
Micheal Pineda
Chris Sale
Aroldis Chapman
To choose from for my last 2round spots I have Jon Lester, Billy Butler, Mike Moustakas, Chase Utley, Ricky Romero, Salvador Perez and Curtis Granderson…
WHICH TWO OF THESE GUYS SHOULD I HANG ONTO??
THANKS!
Just want to throw my two cents in on Wil Myers. I think he’s going to have a similar breakout in AAA that Brett Lawrie had last season. Lawrie’s power numbers were low in AA, just like Myers. If he remains healthy and moves to the friendly hitting in the PCL, his numbers should be fantastic and he’ll be a top 5-10 prospect at the end of the season, just like Lawrie was this year. I believe Myers will be called up in June of 2013 for good, and become a stud in quick order. Basically what I’m saying is that he’s a “can’t miss” type prospect in the mold of Hosmer, Jennings and Lawrie, to name a few.
Now that I think about it…this would be a very difficult list to achieve, probably this is why it’s not done.
Ryne,
I like your “To watch list”, this is a fantastic idea. Doesn’t even need to be in a top 100 list form, just by position because these high schoolers are so raw. 5 players at 1b, 2b etc. This way when most fantasy drafters that take a few flyer picks on pure speculation they have a direction. I know when I’m covered in a particular positions for the next few seasons, then I can take a flyer on a raw high school pick at that position.
The Jays (which is the system I know best) have many of these types of players from the last 2 drafts, that have very high ceiling but can be top stars or bust. I am sure highly touted high schoolers will make this list, but don’t have the XP to make the top 250 or 100 prospects.
Player in the Jays system like SS Christian Lopes or Jacob Anderson are perfect examples for this list!!
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Santana should be off the list for 2 reasons
A) He had a Stephen Drew-type ankle injury
B) He’s really no different than any other young, high upside guy i.e. Pimentel and Castillo in Seattle, Pederson in LA, Jacob Anderson in Toronto, etc. These guys should be on a “watch list” but high-upside guys such as these shouldn’t be over proven guys IMO. Just my 2 cents. Thanks and great work. Go Rangers.
When will the next edition of the top 100 or 250 be out?
Even in our discussion of Jays OF’s getting lost in the depth shuffle (Knecht, Sierra, and Dwight Smith) we lose sight of Jacob Anderson who started off with a fantastic rookie league beginning as a highschooler! It could be early, but he might have the highest ceiling of the above mentioned after Gose and Marisnick!
If Domonic Brown still had eligibility, where would he rank?
Re: Wil Myeres
“Nevertheless, the ranking is aggressive when considering last year’s numbers.”
I don’t think it’s aggressive enough. He struggled last year with a knee injury (infection) that effected his play most of the season. He really turned it up a notch in the AFL when it appeared he was finally fully healthy. I think Myers will still be as good as everyone thought going into last season. We should see a major leap forward in his stats in 2012.
What’s the story on Yelich? I’ve heard his name mentioned in trade rumors…most recently for Matt Garza. I’m usually pretty good and knowing most of the top prospects, but his is a name I have never heard of and from what I’ve read recently he seems legit.
@gcstomp – I agree. It’s just what a scout said.
Pretty sure the PTBNLs in the Rasmus deal ended up just being a heap of cash.
Harper peaked? That is beyond odd, he wont peak for about 8 years.
To put the Blue Jays in perspective on pitching…AA once said that you will always overpay when signing free agent pitchers, so it is better to develop within. The Jays have drafted pitchers upon pitcher the last 3 drafts…
Back to OF, yes the jays to have OF prospects that get lost in the shuffle of organizational depth. Knecht, Sierra, and Dwight Smith are going to be very good players but will they make their way to the big club is yet to be seen. I just like the fact when trade talks are involved, the Jays have the assets to be involved. I just hate the fact that other teams don’t realize that the Jays 20th prospect is equal to lower farm systems 10th. So when Oakland asks for Marisnick and/or Syndergaard to be included for Gio Gonzalez, it’s kind of a joke and a no brainer why the Jays always walk away from proposed trades.
I have been looking online, The jays included a bunch of “PTBNL” in the Rasmus trade, have they ever been announced?
And yeah Santana is too high. Maybe more around 40-45 I’d say. I think Grant Green should rank a little higher. He’s knocking on the big league door this year. Especially because he plays for the Oakland triple A’s. Boy has Beane made some interesting choices. I think he’s trying to capture some Moneyball type glory, hoping for a sequel! I say he shouldn’t have depleted his rotation (again)! The one thing this club could do was pitch and now that doesn’t even look good.
I saw that some scouts don’t like Harper because they think he’s already peaked. They think he strikes out to much, has to violent of a swing which they say will result in a low BA. They think he he’ll project more as a streaky offensive minded player. It makes sense though. Maybe he has peaked but he could still be a productive everyday player as early as this year. Thoughts?
Great thoughts on Toronto, y’all. Their farm system offers great pitching depth, but like y’all said, it will take awhile for those efforts to pay dividends. Toronto has so many difficult-to-project players (Lawrie, Morrow, Rasmus, Drabek, etc) it would not surprise me if they are really good or really bad. I think Toronto makes reasonable efforts to acquire a little outside pitching help without spending much money or future value.
I like Santana too. Besides the k:bb, the transition from the DSL to America went well! He offers an intriguing combination of power and speed, but my ranking is a little high. If the players we listed after Santana were available, it might make sense to grab a more advanced player and target upside in the later rounds. Basically, is there enough distinguishing Santana from other high-upside OFs to justify using the higher pick? Perhaps…because if you ask the same question in reverse, is there enough difference between proximity prospect A and proximity prospect B to sacrifice the upside? Finding that balance is the trick to drafting in these leagues!
Jays will have to get some pitching in from outside if they want to compete next year. To be fair, though, I think Morrow is just about the unluckiest pitcher in baseball, and I expect good things from him this year.
I like Ravel Santana. I think he could be a Michael Young type hitter. in Rookie ball he had 162 hits in 41 games this year. Last year he had 199 in 63. He has decent power and can steal a good amount of bases. His defense needs work. I think, maybe 4-5 years down the road, he could become a .290 hitter with 10 homers, and 20 steals. He could also push 200 hits every year. In 2010 he had a bb/k of 35/38 that slipped to 17/40 this year which is kinda concerning but nothing a 19 year old can’t fix. Of course this is a best case scenerio, but it’s that unforeseeable.
In order for the Blue Jays to succeed, they must develope some of their pitching prospects quicker then anticipated. Although they are stacked in pitching prospects, they are stacked in A level only. Only next season will they have moved that depth to the AA level.
Other then Ricky Romero, IMO all other Blue Jays starting pitvher took a step backwards in development last season!! Brendan Morrow is still looking for consistancy, Brett Cicel shows signs he still needs more time and developement, Drebek was a complete disaster and can no longer find the strike zone.
The Jays are certianly putting a lot of pressure on their farm system to turn out pitching sooner rather then later. Next year I think they are going to have serious issues with starting pitching on the MLB level. The Jays are stacked in A level only and are still seasons away to the MLB level…
I think Leonys Martin is a little low. He has a good shot to start in CF for the Rangers next year, even as early as opening day. He handled his opportunities well in September last year too. It seems like he’d at least have to be higher than Soler because so much more is known about him.
Nice list. I hope Donavan Tate can stay on the field this year so we can see what kind of player he really is. Great website, thanks!
Good call on Knecht, Geo! The strikeout numbers are a little high, but definitely decent power totals. It’s amazing how many prospects are in Toronto’s system. I think players in that system get a little less attention just b/c y’all have so many prospects. For example, guys like Knecht, Moises Sierra, and Dwight Smith would probably be the best OF prospects in some weaker systems. But with Toronto, they perhaps get overshadowed by some of those bigger names.
Go Blue Jays! How do you think y’all will do next season? I think you will be better, but I’m not sure how much better. There is so much upside throughout that organization it’s inevitable good things will eventually start happening, so it’s no huge concern if it takes an extra year or two.
I think you are right about Guzman, Simon. Jed made the same point on our 1B rankings. Santana is ranked pretty aggressively. To some degree, the ranking is due to how the talent on the list falls. In my opinion, the talent starts dropping pretty significantly around #28-31. For example, there seems to be a pretty significant drop in talent between Nimmo/Mahtook and Santana. Nevertheless, even though he is pretty speculative, I like Santana more than the guys ranked lower as a high upside prospect w/ breakout potential next season. I definitely ranked Williams a little aggressively. Basically, I would value him as a borderline Top 100 prospect but he’s still awfully risky.
The number of proximity prospects on this list is pretty weak. I think the two Cubans (Cespedes and Martin) could have an impact this season, and Brett Jackson should be up reasonably soon.
The wild cards are Harper and Myers. Harper could be up soon, but he’s awfully young to expect huge production this season. Myers could get promoted in June, but if he struggles a little, the Royals may give him extra time in the minors.
Who do you think will the most impact in the big leagues this year? Besides Trout.
Here’s a sleeper pick in the Jays system for power numbers…Marcus Knecht looks like he has potential to become a power hitter! His numbers speak power, power, power! He did slump a bit at the end of the season, but he was hitting 290-300 for most of the season. Marisnick’s numbers were great because Knecht was behind him in the lineup protecting his bat!
We should keep an eye on him this upcoming system to see if he maintains these power numbers.
Go Jays!!
Myers was injured/playing hurt for a chunk of last year, and did well in the AFL as well. Other thoughts – Mason Williams is higher than I would have thought. I know nothing about Ravel Santana, which kind of surprises me – any info on him? Also, I’m kind of surprised that you ranked Elier Hernandez in the top 50 outfielders, while Jeimer Candelario was an unranked also mentioned in the third base rankings. Finally, I understood the Rangers were developing Guzman solely as a first baseman – happy to be corrected on that if I’m wrong, or if that’s changed.
Thanks Bobby! Appreciate the compliment. It’s fun ranking guys like Soler, even though he is a little tough to value at this point. Liriano is primarily a speed guy w/ a little bit of power potential w/ a profile that I think justifies ranking him somewhere in the middle of the Top 100. He posted terrific numbers following an early season demotion, and the big question is how those numbers will translate against more advanced pitching.
Fair question re: Myers, Ethan. To some degree, he ranks in the four spot by default b/c of how the talent drops. Ideally, the decline in performance was largely due to a combination of short-term injuries and being young for his level. Nevertheless, the ranking is aggressive when considering last year’s numbers.
Why is Wil Myers so high? I really like him but he had a disapointing season. The Royals definately need his Right-handed bat to compliment Moustakas (spell?) and Hosmer in the future.
Bradley, I love your website and that it actually includes guys like Soler so that we have an idea of where they belong. I am a little suprised to see Rymer Lirinao so high on the list, but I will admit that it is because I don’t know much about him. Can you give us a little insight on him; maybe a future projection or MLB comparison?