One of the difficulties in drafting is knowing which position a player is likely to end up in once he reaches the big leagues. that’s a particular problem with shortstops, as many, if not most, young prospects grow up playing short, simply because they were usually the best athlete in school or college teams. For example, Miguel Cabrera played shortstop in low A ball, although nobody really thought he had a chance to stick at the position.
Things are further complicated because teams like to keep prospects playing short, even if they don’t expect them to stick there for ever. This can be for a number of reasons – they hope that the player may develop into a competent shortstop, even if it seems unlikely, they want the player to work on skills which are best practiced at short, or they want the player to get more defensive reps, and the ball comes to the shortstop more frequently than other infielders.
I’m going to go through Bradley’s top 50 shortstops, and offer an opinion on who might stick, and who might move. I should say that these are based on published reports, rather than my own scouting efforts. I have seen very few of these players actually play.
1. Jurickson Profar (TEX) – Will stick at shortstop, based on ability. There is some discussion that he might move to second as the Rangers are more likely to have a vacancy there when he’s ready. My opinion is that Andrus is not special enough to make that necessary, and may not still be in Texas then anyway, so I would see Profar remaining at short.
2. Manny Machado (BAL) – Has a good chance to stick at shortstop, if he doesn’t just outgrow the position. If he does, he’ll move to third, and his bat is good enough that this would only cause a minor drop in value.
3. Francisco Lindor (CLE) – Will stick at shortstop. Also general reports on Lindor since signing have been very good. He could end up being a steal for the Indians.
4. Nick Franklin (SEA) – Has a good chance to stick. If he does move, it would be to second.
5. Xander Bogaerts (BOS) – Will likely have to move. I’ve seen estimates of his chances of sticking which range from 0 to around 35%. If he does move, the first move is to third, but there are suggestions he may not even stick there, and could end up either as a first baseman or an outfielder. It’s entirely possible that the bat will turn out to be good enough to play anywhere though.
6. Billy Hamilton (CIN) - Probably more likely than not to stick at short, although there is persistent talk that he would be a second baseman in the bigs due to a weak arm. All speed, no power guy profiles better as a shortstop
7. Hak-Ju Lee (TAM) – Will stick at short.
8. Jean Segura (LAA) - Was once a second baseman, converted to short last year. No obvious problems, but he was injured a lot. Yet to prove he can handle the position, although there appears to be no reason why he couldn’t.
9. Javier Baez (CHC) – Minimal pro experience, does not look like a shortstop – lacks speed. Will probably have to move to third relatively early in his development. Still unclear whether third would be his pro position. Bat is good enough for third anyway, as he was likely drafted on the assumption he wouldn’t stick at short.
10. Zach Cozart (CIN) – Will stick at short. Should be the starter for Cincinnati this year.
11. Trevor Story (COL) – Can you say blocked? The one thing you can say is that he will not be the starting shortstop for the Rockies any time soon. Likely has the skills for short, so he could play there if traded, or could emd up at second (most likely) or third (if Arenado doesn’t work out), or as a utilityman. I like him as a prospect.
12. Christian Colon (KCR) – Only has value in a deeper league. Ceiling is not that high, and is unlikely to displace Alcides Escobar or Johnny Giavotella, so is more likely to be a defensive minded utilityman.
13. Levi Michael (MIN) – Not a classic quick twitch short stop, but gets everything out of his talent, so it wouldn’t be a shock if he does manage to stick. If he isn’t a SS, he’s probably going to be a second baseman. The move would impact on his value, as his bat is not that special.
14. Joe Panik (SFG) – Playable at short, but probably better as a second baseman. Could be lined up to take over from Freddy Sanchez in two years time. Will continue to play short at the moment – there are no significant blocks there if he continues to do a good job.
15. Tim Beckham (TAM) – Has got to AAA at short, but has limitations defensively. Hak-Ju Lee is far superior defensively, and could be the long term solution at short for Tampa. That would leave Beckham in a utility role.
16. Andrelton Simmons (ATL) – Will stick at short.
17. Tyler Pastornicky (ATL) – Will stick at short.
18. Wilmer Flores (NYM) – Will not stick at short, and could already be in the process of moving. Played 3rd in the Venezuelan League this winter. The question with Flores is whether he can stick at 3rd, or will end up at 1st or in the OF, and then whether he will have the bat for the position. His bat is relatively good, but may not be enough for an offense-first position.
19. Jose Iglesias (BOS) - Will stick at short.
20. Brian Dozier (MIN) – Unlikely to play short full time in the bigs. Profiles better as a second baseman, although he could play short from time to time, so could end up as a utility player.
21. Jake Hager (TAM) - Lacks range to play short in the bigs. Could play 2nd or 3rd.
22. Adeiny Hechevarria (TOR) – Will stick at short.
23. Jonathon Villar (HOU) – Will stick at short. I like the tools.
24. Chris Owings (ARI) – Will stick at short.
25. Derek Dietrich (TAM) – Likely to have to move off short. 3rd is probably his most natural position, although he would be blocked forever. Could also be used at 2nd.
26. Matt Lipka (ATL) - Already moved to centre field.
27. Rosell Herrera (COL) - Likely to outgrow SS. Will move to 3rd. The real question is whether he will stick there, or end up at first or in the outfield. The bat has potential, but obviously more is required as he moves down the defensive spectrum.
28. Ronny Rodriguez (CLE) - Hard to find too much info on him, but there are questions about his defense.
29. Shawon Dunston Jr. (CHC) – Cubs see him as a centre fielder. I would rank him lower (and he isn’t going to be a shortstop).
30. Yordy Cabrera (OAK) – Likely to have to move off short due to a lack of range. Most likely to end up at third.
31. Freddy Galvis (PHI) - Will stick at short.
32. Tyler Saladino (CWS) - Has a good chance to stick at short. If not, would play second. His bat has good power for a middle infielder.
33. Zach Walters (WAS) – Played primarily at SS, but also got time at 2nd and 3rd when he played for Arizona. Got traded, and has played exclusively at short in the Washington system. There are questions about his range, and he could end up as a utilityman who can play a semi-acceptable short.
34. Junior Lake (CHC) - Unlikely to stick at short. Will be tried at 3rd, but may end up as an outfielder.
35. Cito Culver (NYY) – Should stick at short. Young, but defensive reports are good. Stock will rise if the bat improves too.
36. Martin Peguero (SEA) – Reports on his defense are not great, and it seems likely that he will move, either to second, or, more likely, to third.
37. Brad Miller (SEA) - Range is reasonably OK, but throwing is an issue. Could have to move to second. I like him better than Peguero.
38. Nick Ahmed (ATL) – Reports are mixed – he doesn’t always look smooth, but should be able to stick.
39. Eugenio Suarez (DET) – Good reports on defense. Bat appears to have some pop, and would move up the list significantly if the bat develops well.
40. Marcus Littlewood (SEA) - Doesn’t appear to have the athleticism required to play short, and has played some second base, although range could be an issue there. Some thoughts that he could play at third, and I have seen him listed as a C/SS. OK, I don’t know where he’ll play, but it likely won’t be short.
41. Brandon Martin (TAM) - Should stick at short.
42. Jace Peterson (SDP) – Some questions to be answered, but more likely to stick than not. Bat is looking promising, and he has speed. Could improve a lot next year.
43. Christian Lopes (TOR) - Questions about his ability to stick at short. Could end up at either second or third.
44. Jiovanni Mier (HOU) – Will stick at short.
45. DiDi Gregorious (CIN) – Will stick at short. I would rank him a fair bit higher.
46. Roman Quinn (PHI) - Will stick at short.
47. Josh Rutledge (COL) – Will probably move to second. Bat has potential if he can put up numbers outside the Cal League.
48. Eduardo Escobar (CWS) – Glove is good enough to stick, but he could be used as a defensive utility player.
49. Jake Lemmerman (LAD) - Little information available – tools are average. No indication of a switch in the near future.
50 (tie). Hector Gomez (COL) – Strong glove, but with Tulo ensconced at short, he’s likely to end up as a utility player. Bat has some pop.
50 (tie). Carlos Truinfel (SEA) – Mixed reports – has a degree of athleticism, but defense needs to improve to stick at short.
For those who play in really deep leagues, it appears that the Mariners have decided to develop Marcus Littlewood as a catcher.
Fangraphs did a poll in the prospect chat on the Montero/Pineda deal. 44% thought the Mariners won, and 47% thought the Yankees did.
MHz – yeah, a breakout for Jackson wouldn’t lead him to be a star. More likely it would get him to the solid MLB regular level – something like 15 HR and .275 with good defence, which is a pretty valuable player, but not a star. I don’t think Solano and Kozma are good enough to block that, and Solano seems to be getting used more as a utilityman anyway.
I liked the Pineda/Montero deal for both sides really. I think most people forget just how good Montero’s bat could be. He’s been ranked as a top 10 prospect for the past couple of years, with virtually nobody believing he could catch regularly in the bigs. That suggests to me that he has pretty much the best bat in the whole minors, which is just what Seattle needs.
Smoak was pretty good for the first couple of months last year, and then he got hurt. I think he had some pretty major personal issues as well, so I would give him a pass for last year. Also, it’s probably going to be easier for him with Montero and Ackley in the lineup this year as well. It at least gives the Mariners a core to build around for the future.
Smoak had personal and health issues last year, but I agree I am not expecting much from him this year. Time flies with Carlos Triunfel, heck, that South Carolina infield of Smoak, James Darnell, and Reese Havens looked ready to play out much differently than it has.
I’d say the Yankees got the better end of the trade because I really like Jose Vicente Campos. I think both sides got what they needed, and you can see the logic behind a lot of Jack Zduriencik’s trades. Obviously I am reading a lot into this. One understated aspect of this trade is that it gives King Felix more help this year. Ichiro is signed through this year, King is signed through 2014, besides their contracts the Mariners have the look of a team preparing to be sold.
Random semi-related Mariners question. Even though getting him for Cliff Lee does not seem so great today, what do y’all think of Justin Smoak? I was a huge fan of Smoak in college, and I always wished the ‘stros had taken him instead of Jason Castro. But last season’s numbers were disappointing. Next season, most people project about a .750 OPS (20 HR’s, .250 BA) which is reasonable based on the numbers. At this point, the power and plate discipline has not carried over to the major leagues like I expected. As a long-time Smoak follower, part of me thinks he has the potential to outperform those projections. But I’m reluctant to label him much of a sleeper w/o having much understanding re: why last year’s numbers were not better.
Yeah, Simon did an incredible job w/ this! It’s awesome seeing analysis of which shortstops really have a shot of staying there in the major leagues.
That Pineda trade was interesting. Over on the forums at minorleagueball, the consensus was the Yankees got the better of the trade. Montero has concerns, most notably whether he can play catcher, and if not, whether he will hit enough to be a huge value at another position. I was also sorta surprised the Mariners had to also give up Campos. When I was messing around w/ the pitch f/x stuff last week looking at Eovaldi, I looked at Pineda too. He’s obviously a very good pitcher, but despite the consensus overwhelmingly being that Pineda will improve in year #2, I saw a few things that made me wonder if those projections are too optimistic. I dunno though…Hardball Times thinks it was a good trade for the Yankees, and to the extent I understand pitch f/x at all (not really), it’s from reading old articles on their site (my favorite are the articles from Josh Kalk…they are older but they present everything in an understandable format).
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/the-yankees-finest-hour/
I’m a fan of Jack Z too. He got lots of credit after his first season, and to some degree, I thought people were overvaluing his abilities coming into 2010 b/c it was foreseeable that the huge turn around in ’09 would be difficult to sustain. It’s difficult to blame him too much for a few of the recent moves that did not work, and many of the decisions will hopefully make them better in the long-term.
Thanks for giving credit to Brad, still some great work Simon.
I wouldn’t label him a breakout candidate, I just see him being viewed in the organization differently with another solid year of defense and projectability to being close to league average at the plate. A lot of this has to do with former 1st round pick Pete Kozma who is on the 40-man roster. I think the only thing keeping him from the job other than that is Donovan Solano…
Carlos Triunfel is a nice #50. He’s certain to get a September call-up, and it is very easy to forget he is only 21. I’m not a fan of his defense at short, but the Mariners are more invested in him than any other team will be, so he’ll get a shot.
I might as well put it here, but was anyone else a fan of the Montero/Pineda trade? I saw that and it makes me respect Jack Z more, and wish more trade in fantasy leagues were as deliberate.
Jack Z has been chasing Montero for a while, and these discussion seemed to be built on IFA players that both sides were familiar with. Montero has the extra year of control compared to Pineda, so they offset that with the proximity of Noesi compared to Campos’ potential. Really nice trade for both sides.
MHz – I should make it clear that the list is Bradley’s. The analysis is mine.
Ryan Jackson is a candidate for the back end of the list in my opinion. He’s another of the guys where the question is more whether they can bat enough to hit at the bottom of the order, as there isn’t a question about the quality of defence. He should certainly stick, and this year he did actually hit for a bit of power as well. John Sickels has him as something of a breakout candidate, so he probably should be added in somewhere. Good shout.
Nice list Simon. I’d throw Ryan Jackson of the Cardinals out there as well.
Thar – I think they keep him at short for as long as possible – they don’t really have vacancies at 2nd or in CF in the near future, and Hamilton is the sort of guy who loses a chunk of value from any move off short. It’s also possible that they would keep Hamilton, as they may feel he would be a better overall player than Cozart – there’s always a decent trade market for competent shortstops.
Finally, I would pay some attention to Didi Gregorious, who has a lot of potential. I would rank him quite a lot higher than Bradley has him – maybe somewhere around the early 20s or so, with the possibility to be a good bit further up if the tools turn into results.
Very helpful, thanks! I figure if Zach Cozart succeeds then they pretty much will have to move Billy Hamilton to 2B or CF or somewhere.
Geo – I don’t see why they wouldn’t trade him, say, for someone who is a better fit at second base, assuming that once he’s ready, they still feel Escobar is a better shortstop. It’s not like the money spent on Hech would be wasted if it allows them to trade to fill a major gap in the big league team – the other team has to give up a player they’ve spent time and money developing too.
Personally, I don’t think that having both Hech and Escobar on the same team works long term because I would want more offensively from a second baseman on a contending club, which the Jays should be by then.
Brad – I like Segura a lot, but Profar is a level above him, due to age, some questions about whether Segura can stick at short, and power/hit ceiling (better for Profar). For my own rankings, I’d probably have Segura above Hamilton, and about level with Lee and Franklin. Definitely behind Profar/Machado/Bogaerts/Lindor though.
Simon,
Unless Escobar is willing to move to second so Hech can play SS, i don’t see the Jays trading him EVER. They would be throwing an 11 mil signing bonus and years of development out the window for another team to benefit. That would be the purest of pure waste of money. Hech will make it as a Jay, or never play regularly in MLB.
Thanks Bradley.
I’d agree Hech should get (at least) a year of AAA. He’s still young, and if the bat can improve enough to be productive at the bottom of a lineup, then he’s a very solid prospect (more so for real life than fantasy).
One potential addition to the list would be Mets’ prospect Jordany Valdespin, who gets playing time as both a shortstop and a second baseman. The tools are pretty much all there for him to play short, but he can’t seem to put it all together, and prevailing opinion is that he’ll end up at second in the bigs. He has potential to provide both speed and power, but his plate discipline is not good. He’s probably about a year or two away, and may be a better fantasy player than real life guy.
I understand that a lot of people are down on Segura due to the injuries, but if he can stay healthy he looks A LOT like Profar. So I think he is being way undervalued…
Great article, Simon!
It’ll be interesting to see how Hech performs this season. He really struggled for much of the season before that late season rally that carried over into AAA.
Toronto can afford to be really patient w/ him, which is what I think they plan to do. My guess is he spends the entire year in Vegas w/ the possibility of a September promotion if he has a good season.
I’m unconvinced that Hechevarria has the bat to play anywhere but SS. I’m not all that convinced he has the bat to play SS every day (that isn’t specifically about him – I’m as sceptical if not more so about guys like Iglesias and Galvis as well). I’d need to see him hit outside Las Vegas really. My guess would be that the Blue Jays might do better to find someone who needs a good defensive shortstop and trade him if they feel he’s totally blocked by Escobar. They may well get more value that way than moving him to second which is a waste of his defense.
Lopes is certainly more of a bat first guy, but it’s too early to tell how it will all work out for him. There’s certainly a decent chance that he can’t stick at short though.
Hech at SS is not as 100% as it seems. Escobar is a lock at SS on the roster and there is a huge hole at 2B on the Jays. There are few if any prospects developing for 2B that are close to MLB ready. So a switch is possible IMO.
Christian Lopes has the power to play a corner, but way to early to tell. his quickest path to the roster my be at SS though, by the time he is ready, Escobar will be in his 30′s.