Here is an updated version of our Top 100 prospects list. In the next few weeks, we will work on listing the next 150 prospects. Then, we will incorporate amateur players and have a Top 250 list which we will update regularly throughout the season. As always, feedback is appreciated so let us know which players you believe are rated too high or too low.
1. Bryce Harper—OF, Nationals
2. Matt Moore—P, Rays
3. Yu Darvish—P, Rangers
4. Mike Trout—OF, Angels
5. Julio Teheran—P, Braves
6. Jurickson Profar—SS, Rangers
7. Shelby Miller—P, Cardinals
8. Jesus Montero-C, Mariners
9. Manny Machado—SS, Orioles
10. Gerrit Cole—P, Pirates
11. Devin Mesoraco-C, Reds
12. Trevor Bauer—P, Diamondbacks
13. Yoennis Cespedes—OF, Free Agent
14. Tyler Skaggs—P, Diamondbacks
15. Anthony Rendon—3B, Nationals
16. Dylan Bundy—P, Orioles
17. Drew Pomeranz—P, Rockies
18. Nolan Arenado—3B, Rockies
19. Travis D’Arnaud-C, Blue Jays
20. Danny Hultzen—P, Mariners
21. Wil Myers—OF, Royals
22. Jacob Turner—P, Tigers
23. Jameson Taillon—P, Pirates
24. Bubba Starling—OF, Royals
25. Taijuan Walker—P, Mariners
26. Yonder Alonso-1B, Padres
27. Zach Wheeler—P, Mets
28. Miguel Sano—3B, Twins
29. Carlos Martinez—P, Cardinals
30. Martin Perez—P, Rangers
31. Archie Bradley—P, Diamondbacks
32. Francisco Lindor—SS, Indians
33. James Paxton—P, Mariners
34. Oscar Tavares—OF, Cardinals
35. Jarrod Parker—P, Athletics
36. Arodys Vizcaino—P, Braves
37. Gary Brown—OF, Giants
38. Christian Yelich—OF, Marlins
39. Randall Delgado—P, Braves
40. Nick Franklin—SS, Mariners
41. Xander Boagerts—SS, Red Sox
42. Jorge Soler—OF, Free Agent
43. Jake Marisnick—OF, Blue Jays
44. Leonys Martin—OF, Rangers
45. Manny Banuelos—P, Yankees
46. Matt Harvey—P, Mets
47. Drew Hutchinson—P, Blue Jays
48. Jake Odorizzi—P, Royals
49. Anthony Rizzo-1B, Cubs
50. Jean Segura—SS, Angels
51. Robbie Erlin—P, Padres
52. Zach Cox—3B, Cardinals
53. Rymer Liriano—OF, Padres
54. Michael Choice—OF, Athletics
55. Gary Sanchez-C, Yankees
56. Yasmani Grandal-C, Padres
57. Anthony Gose—OF, Blue Jays
58. Javier Baez-SS, Cubs
59. Hak Ju Lee—SS, Rays
60. Trevor May—P, Phillies
61. Tyrell Jenkins—P, Cardinals
62. Joe Weiland—P, Padres
63. Billy Hamilton—SS, Reds
64. Brett Jackson—OF, Cubs
65. George Springer—OF, Astros
66. Taylor Jungmann—P, Brewers
67. Matt Barnes—P, Red Sox
68. Dellin Betances—P, Yankees
69. Mike Montgomery—P, Royals
70. Jed Bradley—P, Brewers
71. AJ Cole—P, Athletics
72. Cory Spangenberg—3B, Padres
73. Jarred Cosart—P, Astros
74. Kolten Wong—2B, Cardinals
75. Mike Olt—3B, Rangers
76. Josh Bell—OF, Pirates
77. Starling Marte—OF, Pirates
78. Sonny Gray—P, Athletics
79. Zach Lee—P, Dodgers
80. Brad Peacock—P, Athletics
81. Nestor Molina—P, White Sox
82. Cheslor Cuthbert—3B, Royals
83. Jonathan Singleton-1B, Astros
84. Noah Syndergaard—P, Blue Jays
85. Wily Peralta—P, Brewers
86. Allen Webster—P, Dodgers
87. Daniel Norris—P, Blue Jays
88. Alex Torres—P, Rays
89. Justin Nicolino—P, Blue Jays
90. Luis Heredia—P, Pirates
91. Ryan Lavarnway-C, Red Sox
92. Wilin Rosario-C, Rockies
93. Will Middlebrooks—3B, Red Sox
94. Nick Castellanos—3B, Tigers
95. Matt Szczur—OF, Cubs
96. Bryce Brentz—OF, Red Sox
97. Jose Campos—P, Yankees
98. Nathan Eovaldi—P, Dodgers
99. Keyvious Sampson—P, Padres
100. Zach Cozart—SS, Reds
Some Notable Players Not Listed: Oswaldo Arcia (OF, Twins), Christian Bethancourt (C, Braves), Chad Bettis (P, Rockies), Jesse Biddle (P, Phillies), Garin Checcini (3B, Red Sox), Kaleb Cowart (3B, Angels), Jose Fernandez (P, Marlins), Robbie Grossman (OF, Pirates), Jed Gyorko (3B, Padres), Casey Kelly (P, Padres), Deck McGuire (P, Blue Jays), Chris Parmelee (1B, Twins), Garrett Richards (P, Angels), Eddie Rosario (2B/OF, Twins), Jonathan Schoop (2B, Orioles), Andrelton Simmons (SS, Braves), Tyler Thornburg (P, Brewers), Tim Wheeler (OF, Rockies), Mason Williams (OF, Yankees)
Top 5 Phillies who could be on BPs top 101, if they have a great year:1. Valle Because he is a catcher and will be cosdenired close2. Colvin I doubt he will turn it around, but if he does, he has the pedigree to get noticed on lists like these.3. Aumont Could be cosdenired a dominant arm, but if he has a big year he might get too much MLB time to qualify.4. Franco Will be one of the youngest players in full-season ball. If he leads his team in hitting again, that would gain some attention.5. L Greene If he has a big year, being a #1 pick will certainly put him on the national radar.
@Levi
Yes, in the next week there will be an update of consensus rankings.
Will there be an early season update to this any time soon?
Thanks guys. I did try to trade 1 of the picks out of there, but I couldn’t get a good deal worked out. I ended up going with Darvish and Hultzen. The way I figured it was I was locking a non-flashy but very solid guy in Hultzen, leaving me to choose between 2 high risk/rewards. At the end, I just couldn’t pass up on Darvish’s potential. Crossing my fingers that he translates well in American ball. Cole and Yu definitely have the best potential of the three, but my major league roster is somewhat underwhelming at pitcher, and I didn’t want to risk ending up with both another Japanese flop and a glorified closer
Great story on Peter O’Brien, MHZ. Really glad to see him having a great season! I thought the part about O’Brien being a native Spanish speaker was interesting… shows a person’s name can be deceiving. Tough news about Giolito…bad news for the ‘stros b/c that’s perhaps one less player we can take w/ our top pick.
Sorry I went AWOL on these questions! Luckily, the other commenters did a great job making suggestions, but here are my thoughts.
Brian: I would take Verlander.
Daniel: I would perhaps take Zunino? But not totally sure. I might take MHZ’s advice on Jungmann. He does a good job valuing amateur players compared to current prospects, and in most cases, his advice has been right.
Gordon Wood: very tough call! I would probably pick Chris Sale, but I am concerned about his throwing mechanics.
Paul: I would absolutely pick Darvish. The next pick is tougher, but I would take Cole. You might want to look into trading the #6 pick. You might find an owner willing to give up a lot to move into a position to take Cole, and assuming you can get a solid amount of extra value to drop a few spots, it could be a good move.
I am enjoying Peter O’Brien’s senior year!
Conor Glassey on O’Brien:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/03/game-report-miami-c-peter-obrien-with-video/
Paul I would lock Cole into a spot and then tab Darvish
Hey guys,long time reader, first time poster, I was hoping for a little help if possible.
Its the Minors draft in my dynasty league. I thought the picks would go differently leaving me with clear choices at my pick, but the draft went a lot differently than I thought it would of, so I now have a dilemma.
picks went 1.Bauer 2. Bundy 3. Rendon 4. Starling 5.current pick (mine). I own the 5th and 6th picks, and I’m having a ton of trouble picking 2 of Darvish, Cole, Hultzen, and Cespedes. I don’t know if I’m sold on Darvish due to the history of many japan league players, even though he was even more dominant than any Japanese player ever. Any help is appreciated.
@Brian That is a great deal. I don’t know the roster or financial restrictions of your league, but I love Strasburg and would make that trade. Verlander is going to have a lot more value once the season starts and teams want to compete.
@Daniel Jungmann, and I don’t think it’s very close. He had a disappointing start to pro ball but he is talented enough to get to MLB. Zunino is solid if you want a catcher in a few years, Ronald Guzman is a tremendous hitter but he is only 16, and I don’t really see Trevor Story in the conversation. He had a great start to pro ball but I would put him a solid 4th behind the other three names. Taylor Featherston is another from the draft to watch, Rockies love their offensive-minded middle infielders.
@Regurgitating Gordon Wood Henderson Alvarez is a good example of what the difference is between fantasy baseball prospecting, and prospecting for MLB. Alvarez’s fantasy ceiling is probably as a reliable 200 IP 6 or 7 K/9IP. He throws a lot of strikes and has a great power sinker, but his production in MLB won’t translate well to MLB. Think of Brandon Webb, Derek Lowe, or Fausto Carmona(ummm McLovin, ummm I mean Roberto Heredia). The video below is a home run Pujols hit off of Chris Sale a couple of days ago in spring training. If Sale is as good as expected, he will rack up some big strikeout totals. If you want to play devil’s advocate, just watch the video as it shows him at his worst: He takes a while to carry his forearm through his pitching motion, which makes him deceptive but also can lead to injury. He’s going to get a lot of strikeouts with the movement he can generate on his fastball and slider, but when he can’t a player like Pujols can just swing away because RHH aren’t going to care about his slider. I wouldn’t buy him long-long-term because of the violent motion with his forearm, but he should have some success as a starter.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jspcontent_id=20186581&topic_id=&c_id=ana&tcid=vpp_copy_20186581&v=3
Daniel — I think I would take Jungmann as well but thats just because I think he’s quite possibly already MLB ready. He could be up pitching the Brewers this year if all goes well. However dont sleep on Trevor Story or Mike Zunino. I think Zunino has the potential to be a top 3 pick in next years draft (due in large part to Giolito’s injury) although Im not sure how reports are on his defense behind the plate? Id rank them as Jungman, Zunino, Story, Guzman
Gordon Wood… I’d definately hang onto Chris Sale over Henderson Alvarez… in the long run Sale projects more as a 1-2 type of starter where Alvarez appears to be more of a 3-4 type. Not too mention Sale is a lefty who has good control and racks up high K/9.
I too agree that I’d trade Strasburgh for Verlander. Verlander is far more proven than Stras and I just dont know if I’d trust Stras until he gets a good solid year or two under his belt w/o injury.
I would absolutely send Strasburg for Verlander.
I would draft Jungmann.
Hey Bradley,
good to have baseball back! Got a question on my last keeper selection…can keep either Henderson Alvarez or Chris Sale in my keeper league for free. Thoughts on either for the short/long term? Thanks!
Really sad baseball news.
Lucas Giolito most likely done for the year with a UCL sprain. He was throwing some serious heat with movement and reaching triple digits. Hopefully he can get healthy and finish the season, prepare for the draft, or move on to UCLA.
Who would you take with one pick in a MiLB draft (deep, dynasty league):
Mike Zunino, Taylor Jungmann, Ronald Guzman, or Trevor Story. I am stuck..
Just got an offer in a 16 team dynasty league
I give: strasburg
I get: Verlander
I’m trying to find any reason not to accept. Do you think Strasburg will be able to put up Verlander type numbers in a year or two? Will the poor defense behind Verlander hurt him alot?Or is this offer as good as it looks to me.
Good question on Gose versus Springer! You are right that Springer offers more power, and Gose offers more speed. The upside of Gose is-if everything went perfectly-he can give you power and speed. But he also has huge concerns w/ his strikeout rates, which could lead to problems. For fantasy purposes, Springer is a slightly lesser-known commodity b/c he is yet to play a full milb season. But ideally, the transition will go well so I don’t necessarily think the lack of milb experience means he’s riskier. I would probably take Springer, but it’s really close and taking Gose would not be a bad decision.
I apologize for the lack of posting, ST! Real world obligations have been really busy, and unfortunately, I have not had time to post. Posting those lists are my favorite hobby, and I really miss getting the chance to post. Luckily, a bunch of the regular posters started a dynasty league around the time work got busy so at least that worked out well. A few times, I’ve tried to post a list but the problem is I haven’t had much time to research lately! Without the time to research, the list doesn’t provide much value and can hurt more than it helps! Ideally, my schedule will free up soon so I’ll have time to post more content. But until then, always happy to try to answer questions. Once the farm draft in our league is finished (400 picks), I’ll publish those results so people can see how the draft went.
Good comments, Geo! Alvarez is awesome! I like McGuire over Jenkins. It’s partially based on familiarity b/c McGuire had such collegiate career, and even though he does not profile as a star stuff-wise, there is little reason to believe he cannot be reasonably productive in the major leagues.
I have a dilemma: Gose or Springer? They both seem similar with Gose having more SBs and Springer hitting for more power.
Any chance you post a list like last season of possible youngsters that make the MLB this season…or when you expect them to. I loved the list last season!!!
Jenkins, McGuire or even Hutchinson will be recalled to the Jays sooner in the season rather then later as the Jays staff will be weaker I think then last season.
Although McGuire has a higher ceiling, Jenkins seems more developed and polished…your thoughts as you read stats better then I ever could on pitchers?
Henderson Alvarez is having a strong spring and looks to be the 3rd starter in the jays staff…some dynasty leagues still have him open and he could be a cheap pickup! His stuff is sick, in a good way!
Very good stuff, MHZ! I totally agree. Coming into this off-season, it was pretty clear they were not going to have enough to compete w/ the Angels and Rangers. But I definitely give them credit b/c they were aggressive putting together a plan that could have them competing before people think.
Good question on Cespedes versus Soler, Brian. Both players theoretically offer huge potential, but at the same time, there is risk b/c the information is pretty limited. I would value Cespedes higher b/c he offers the same huge potential as Soler w/ better proximity to the major leagues. Plus, even though the information about both players remains limited, there is probably more information about Cespedes (Cuban League numbers, already signed large contract, etc).
What makes you rate Cespedes so much higher than Soler?
“1. Players’ ratings are regressed to a level determined by their signing bonus. ”
I don’t see this translating very well for what is intended in the rankings.
I really do not understand the common perception of the Oakland Athletics. They don’t have a stadium situation nearly as favorable as the Angels and Rangers, and both of those teams have large tv contracts. They’ve had some good teams the past couple of years.
Cespedes probably starts the year in MiLB. It should buy Oakland some time to see what they have in Cowgill, Carter, or Taylor. Seth Smith in LF, Gomes to platoon if Smith can’t handle LHP and play every day. Coco Crisp in CF, and Reddick in RF. The Athletics have a lot of flexibility if Smith can play every day, Cespedes is as advertised, and Reddick can handle RF. That’s an OF under control for the next three years(four for Cespedes, six for Reddick).
The infield defense is what limits the Oakland Athletics. The injury to Scott Sizemore(knee) is going to be a HUGE hole for them to fill this year. Very tough break early on for Oakland this year. I really like Jemile Weeks, but he along with Pennington and Barton need to improve their defense. Brandon Allen and Johnny Gomes look to DH until Manny is eligible(nice signing for $500,000(~$350,000 considering suspension) to see if Manny can get hot and traded to a contender.). There are some patchwork bench players like Donaldson and Rosales who will be counted on to man 3B now. Kurt Suzuki should see some mild improvement on offense and defense. Disappointing 2011 for him. They desperately need a position player to establish themselves this year, and they have some good candidates.
The Gonzalez trade was excellent value, and Cahill was traded a year too late but still a good haul. Once those decisions were made, Guillermo Moscoso, Josh Outman, and Andrew Bailey were just more dominoes to fall. Fuentes and Balfour should be gone by the trading deadline as well.
The starting pitching staff leaves a lot to be desired. Brandon McCarthy is to be relied on the most, and he had career highs of 25 starts and 170.2 IP last year. I’d rather have the depth and flexibility they traded for than make a run with a 1-2-3 of Cahill/Gio/McCarthy(and Moscoso+ all hands on deck for the rest of the starts.).
McCarthy and Suzuki are their oldest starters for pitching and position players respectively. If you squint your eyes you can see this team getting to 74 or 75 wins, and that has been the worst seasons the Athletics have had in about 15 years. I know Oakland hasn’t won any championships, but they have had some decent seasons and teams.
Very good find, Stathawk! It’s fun to see our rankings included w/ those other sites. I stumbled across an interesting site a few days ago? Have y’all ever seen this?
http://neifiprojections.wordpress.com/top-900/
He uses a computer formula to grade prospects w/ interesting results. I don’t necessarily agree with the results, but nevertheless, it was an interesting read. How many of the bold rankings do y’all think identify potentially undervalued players?
I am going to try to publish the update soon, Taco! I have done a terrible job updating b/c my schedule has been pretty hectic the past few weeks starting the new law firm. But I started working on it, and hopefully, will get something posted in the next week. Just need a slow day at work where I can devote an hour or two to baseball!
Agree Cespedes was a decent high-risk investment, MHZ. Do you think he’ll start this season in the minor leagues? I think it’s possible, and their plan will be to make a decision after the spring.
I was looking at Oakland’s roster tonight, and among the teams projected to be awful this season, I think Oakland has a chance to outperform expectations. The playoffs are out of the question b/c the roster has tons of question marks. But at the same time, at most of the weakest positions, they have players who could theoretically be reasonably productive in a full-time opportunity (even though I would not count on it). Hitters like Reddick, Seth Smith, Brandon Allen, Chris Carter, Cowgill, and Michael Taylor. Then, pitchers like Parker, Milone, Peacock, and Sonny Gray. Assuming a few of those players can step up, I think they can outperform a surprising number of teams while being in a position to compete in the not-so-distant future.
Starting next season, I’m not excited about the ‘stros being in a division w/ those four teams. But at the same time, after looking at our roster tonight, I think it’ll be awhile before competition in our division becomes a pressing concern.
2012 Prospects Composite List mlbcpi.blogspot.com
I found Gold today! It’s a Composite Listing with all the experts including DeepLeagues.com
http://mlbcpi.blogspot.com/p/experts.html
When does the combined list come out with prospects, college guys, high schoolers, & international players?
Smart move by Oakland. Cespedes isn’t arbitration-eligible on this contract, and this might be the last year you can dump money on IFAs without restrictions. He reminds me a lot of Wily Mo Pena with his body type, speed/power, and ability to play CF.
I’m sure Beane will take a lot of heat if Cespedes isn’t able to produce, but that really isn’t the question he had to answer. He locked up a talented player to a very favorable contract. It will most likely be the same thing when someone throws big $$$ at Jorge Soler
Yeah, it was a surprising decision! Oakland’s offseason has been really interesting, and even though it’s difficult to envision them competing in the short-term, I think there is a greater method behind the strategy this off-season than many project. Going into the offseason, they needed to make adjustments b/c it was not realistic they could compete long-term on a limited payroll w/ their current MLB roster and farm system. So they rebuilt aggressively while also picking up a few older players they thought were undervalued.
It’ll be interesting to see how many of their prospect pickups will perform, particularly Milone, Norris, and Cowgill. All three are arguably underrated by prospect rankers like myself. For example, I will be interested to watch how Milone (along w/ Erlin and Surkamp) perform in the major leagues. How much should a player who posts terrific strikeout rates in the minor leagues be devalued based on lacking an elite fastball? Even though it’s impossible for me to really know which “behind the scenes” guys provide the most value, part of me really likes their decision to bring back Dan Feinstein from Tampa Bay.
One decision I did not like was letting the Cubs get Adrian Cardenas. I’ve always been a fan, and even if he lacks huge potential, I thought he could have helped them b/c they don’t have any great options at 3B and he might have been useful in a backup role.
Bradley, players on Oaklands roster don’t seem to last very long…
But I dont understand this move quite frankly, Oakland doesn’t seem to want to compete in the next 2-3 years (and why would they when Texas and LA are spending like crazy). But by the time they even get a window to compete they will have to trade him away?!?!
Saw that. What do you think? $36 million is a major investment, but I sorta like the move from Oakland’s perspective. It’s hard to know for sure b/c the information is limited, but they certainly added another young, high-upside player.
The only reason I was sorta surprised Oakland signed Cespedes is their outfield already has a number of young players. But even if they have several sleepers, the presence of those players should not have prevented them from adding Cespedes.
Cespedes signs with Oakland.
http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/story/?id=387709
Yeah, when I first heard about the potential move to the AL West, my first thought was “well, at least we won’t have to deal w/ Pujols.” Haha.
I’ll never forget that home run he hit off Lidge in Game 6 of the NLCS. I didn’t think a person could hit a baseball that hard!
Brad,
Seems like the ‘stros can’t avoid being in a conference with Sir Albert. You think he signed because he likes hitting bombs off the glass in Minute Maid?
Not me asking about the cardinals lol
The opposite…I’m a ‘stros fan! We had to contend w/ Pujols in the playoffs, and there was the co-division championship in 2001. Perhaps I like a few of their players more than most? I am a believer in Cox, and going into last season, one of our best aggressive rankings was putting Tavares in the Top 250. Even though Jenkins could easily bust, he offers pretty substantial upside, IMO.
Agree rotation depth is huge, Simon. Among the teams that disappointed last season, I think a huge portion came into the season w/ no realistic backup plan if the pitchers in the preseason rotation got injured and/or underperformed.