Here is an updated version of our Top 100 prospects list. In the next few weeks, we will work on listing the next 150 prospects. Then, we will incorporate amateur players and have a Top 250 list which we will update regularly throughout the season. As always, feedback is appreciated so let us know which players you believe are rated too high or too low.
1. Bryce Harper—OF, Nationals
2. Matt Moore—P, Rays
3. Yu Darvish—P, Rangers
4. Mike Trout—OF, Angels
5. Julio Teheran—P, Braves
6. Jurickson Profar—SS, Rangers
7. Shelby Miller—P, Cardinals
8. Jesus Montero-C, Mariners
9. Manny Machado—SS, Orioles
10. Gerrit Cole—P, Pirates
11. Devin Mesoraco-C, Reds
12. Trevor Bauer—P, Diamondbacks
13. Yoennis Cespedes—OF, Free Agent
14. Tyler Skaggs—P, Diamondbacks
15. Anthony Rendon—3B, Nationals
16. Dylan Bundy—P, Orioles
17. Drew Pomeranz—P, Rockies
18. Nolan Arenado—3B, Rockies
19. Travis D’Arnaud-C, Blue Jays
20. Danny Hultzen—P, Mariners
21. Wil Myers—OF, Royals
22. Jacob Turner—P, Tigers
23. Jameson Taillon—P, Pirates
24. Bubba Starling—OF, Royals
25. Taijuan Walker—P, Mariners
26. Yonder Alonso-1B, Padres
27. Zach Wheeler—P, Mets
28. Miguel Sano—3B, Twins
29. Carlos Martinez—P, Cardinals
30. Martin Perez—P, Rangers
31. Archie Bradley—P, Diamondbacks
32. Francisco Lindor—SS, Indians
33. James Paxton—P, Mariners
34. Oscar Tavares—OF, Cardinals
35. Jarrod Parker—P, Athletics
36. Arodys Vizcaino—P, Braves
37. Gary Brown—OF, Giants
38. Christian Yelich—OF, Marlins
39. Randall Delgado—P, Braves
40. Nick Franklin—SS, Mariners
41. Xander Boagerts—SS, Red Sox
42. Jorge Soler—OF, Free Agent
43. Jake Marisnick—OF, Blue Jays
44. Leonys Martin—OF, Rangers
45. Manny Banuelos—P, Yankees
46. Matt Harvey—P, Mets
47. Drew Hutchinson—P, Blue Jays
48. Jake Odorizzi—P, Royals
49. Anthony Rizzo-1B, Cubs
50. Jean Segura—SS, Angels
51. Robbie Erlin—P, Padres
52. Zach Cox—3B, Cardinals
53. Rymer Liriano—OF, Padres
54. Michael Choice—OF, Athletics
55. Gary Sanchez-C, Yankees
56. Yasmani Grandal-C, Padres
57. Anthony Gose—OF, Blue Jays
58. Javier Baez-SS, Cubs
59. Hak Ju Lee—SS, Rays
60. Trevor May—P, Phillies
61. Tyrell Jenkins—P, Cardinals
62. Joe Weiland—P, Padres
63. Billy Hamilton—SS, Reds
64. Brett Jackson—OF, Cubs
65. George Springer—OF, Astros
66. Taylor Jungmann—P, Brewers
67. Matt Barnes—P, Red Sox
68. Dellin Betances—P, Yankees
69. Mike Montgomery—P, Royals
70. Jed Bradley—P, Brewers
71. AJ Cole—P, Athletics
72. Cory Spangenberg—3B, Padres
73. Jarred Cosart—P, Astros
74. Kolten Wong—2B, Cardinals
75. Mike Olt—3B, Rangers
76. Josh Bell—OF, Pirates
77. Starling Marte—OF, Pirates
78. Sonny Gray—P, Athletics
79. Zach Lee—P, Dodgers
80. Brad Peacock—P, Athletics
81. Nestor Molina—P, White Sox
82. Cheslor Cuthbert—3B, Royals
83. Jonathan Singleton-1B, Astros
84. Noah Syndergaard—P, Blue Jays
85. Wily Peralta—P, Brewers
86. Allen Webster—P, Dodgers
87. Daniel Norris—P, Blue Jays
88. Alex Torres—P, Rays
89. Justin Nicolino—P, Blue Jays
90. Luis Heredia—P, Pirates
91. Ryan Lavarnway-C, Red Sox
92. Wilin Rosario-C, Rockies
93. Will Middlebrooks—3B, Red Sox
94. Nick Castellanos—3B, Tigers
95. Matt Szczur—OF, Cubs
96. Bryce Brentz—OF, Red Sox
97. Jose Campos—P, Yankees
98. Nathan Eovaldi—P, Dodgers
99. Keyvious Sampson—P, Padres
100. Zach Cozart—SS, Reds
Some Notable Players Not Listed: Oswaldo Arcia (OF, Twins), Christian Bethancourt (C, Braves), Chad Bettis (P, Rockies), Jesse Biddle (P, Phillies), Garin Checcini (3B, Red Sox), Kaleb Cowart (3B, Angels), Jose Fernandez (P, Marlins), Robbie Grossman (OF, Pirates), Jed Gyorko (3B, Padres), Casey Kelly (P, Padres), Deck McGuire (P, Blue Jays), Chris Parmelee (1B, Twins), Garrett Richards (P, Angels), Eddie Rosario (2B/OF, Twins), Jonathan Schoop (2B, Orioles), Andrelton Simmons (SS, Braves), Tyler Thornburg (P, Brewers), Tim Wheeler (OF, Rockies), Mason Williams (OF, Yankees)
Is the preparer a Cardinals fan? Every Cards prospect is over-rated on here except maybe Wong. Jenkins at 61? Come on.
Vizcaino is currently behind Hudson, Hanson, Beachy, Minor, Jurrjens, Teheran and Delgado. Of those, Hudson has a year to go, and a $9million team option for 2013. I would probably not exercise that option if the young pitchers continue to develop as expected, so one slot opens up at the end of next year, which is when I would suggest Vizcaino (and Delgado, for that matter) would really be ready. I don’t know about you, but I’m scared of Hanson’s shoulder, and Jurrjens has a lot of regression coming (he’s also a free agent after 2013). Add in normal pitcher injuries – I doubt that there’s a team in baseball that only needed five starters last year, and the fact that Vizcaino is a more talented pitcher than several of the others on the list, and I’m pretty confident that the problem will resolve itself pretty quickly. Also, it can be improved if the Braves trade any of their pitching for a bat. They were shopping Jurrjens pretty hard this year, for example.
nice list. great work as always. I’d strongly consider johnny hellweg towards the back of the pack there. He’s a classic boom or bust guy, but man if the control he showed after being moved to Starter is legit – watch out. Hardest thrower in the minors, 6’8″ or 6’9″ – 60% groundball rate and NO home runs given up after the move and that’s in the CAL league.
I contend that Vizcaino is about as blocked as a pitcher can be. Banking on a player to be traded doesn’t seem like a great strategy.
Another request! Mark Appel seems to be considered by most the top college player in this year’s draft. Where would he rank on this list?
I have vizcaino in a shallow dynasty league. Do I hold him or ditch him? If he goes to the pen, he is worthless to me.
With Vizcaino, rather than use him as a seventh inning guy (and they already have O’Flaherty who is pretty good there too), the Braves would get better value trading him if he has the durability to start. Also, I don’t think that pitchers are ever that blocked, given ineffectiveness, injuries and trades.
Very good suggestion! I am banking on Vizcaino being developed as a starter, but if he gets locked into middle relief, it clearly limits his fantasy value.
Thanks for the explanation, Bradley! With dynasty leagues in mind, isn’t Vizcaino a little high on this list? He just seems so incredibly blocked for both the starting rotation and the bullpen with the Braves surplus of young arms. They seem to see him more as a reliever than Delgado and Teheran, and obviously they have Kimbrel and Venters ahead of him for saves.
Good comment, Peter. Our intention is to value players for dynasty leagues. In my opinion, the difference between fantasy and real baseball is less significant than some project. One difference is defense is only important to the extent a prospect can remain on the field, and also, balancing proximity versus upside is extremely important. But the balance really depends on your league rules. Generally, upside becomes more important as you reduce the # of teams and increase the number of prospects b/c two factors to consider are: (1) how much the player can produce over the FA list, and (2) the opportunity cost of letting a single prospect occupy a farm spot for multiple years.
Thanks for the invite, Ben! I wish I could play, but I think I probably have to pass. I am already doing two leagues, and that along w/ the website ends up taking up a lot of time. Regardless, I really appreciate the invitation and it seems like a great league.
I am excited about this season too, Joe! The ‘stros will be rebuilding, but the good thing about a bad team is good seats. Basically, there is an inverse correlation between the ‘stros performance and the # of games I attend. Back in the early-90′s, we used to go to almost every game. Last season, it was amazing the # of times my friends & I were able to get great seats b/c various companies hold the tickets and nobody would want to go.
Hey Guys,
Terrific job as always. Something I’d love to see would be a top prospects list that is strictly for fantasy league purposes. In other words, position eligibility is important, but not a player’s defense. For example, on the list I’m proposing you could argue that Jesus Montero is the top fantasy prospect in the game. His offensive ceiling, plus his position, plus the fact that he’ll DH when he’s not catching makes him a Mike Piazza clone in my eyes. I know other lists take his shoddy defense into account, but this wouldn’t. His defense would only hurt him in as much as it might cost him catcher eligibility (if he has to move). I’d love to hear your thoughts, and I wonder how close what I’m describing is to what you guys actually intend with your lists.
Thanks!
Hey Bradley,
I just sent you an e-mail for an invite to a deep keeper league.
Love your website…thanks!
Great list again Bradley. I cannot wait for Spring Training and the start of another great year. I think this sums it up…. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyMXKWNGz7g
@Simon: I guess I put a little more emphasis on long-term potential. McCutchen was my Trout before Trout, that being said, Trout has much more SB ability, being a step or two quicker, and is on a better team. Eventually I see him batting leadoff or in the two hole in front of Pujols. He obviously is not every day ready right now, but will b ea GREAT buy-low a year from now. Long-term I have #1 Moore, #2 Harper, #3 Trout for fantasy purposes, but I would take Trout over Harper in real life (Mr. Cocky vs. a good kid with excellent defense).
Yeah, I don’t see the trade hurting his value too much. He goes to a tougher park hitting in Seattle, but at the same time, it’s much more certain he’ll get an extended opportunity in the major leagues.
Seattle will be an interesting team. They have a lot of young pitching, and with a little luck, Montero and Ackley will be productive for a long time. It’ll be interesting to see how Smoak performs. I’ve been a fan for awhile, but I’d like to see an increase in production next season.
Hey Brad,
Kudos to you!! You seem to have one of the few lists left that kept Jesus Montero in the top 10…The Yankee/Big Market influence on over-hyped prospects didn’t affect your list after the trade to Seattle! I guess he is a real dynasty prospect!
Enough with the Gose talk…As much as a Jays fan I am, I look at Gose as Carlos Gomez comparison until he gets the KKs down!! I know he’s playing a year ahead, but this year should be his breakout year as I read he will be starting a second year in AA.
Good comment, MHZ! Gose is an interesting player. My concern is, right now, his strikeout totals are at the point where it’ll be difficult for him to be productive if those numbers got worse in the major leagues. I like his chances of improving. First, he has plenty of time to improve considering he’s only 21. Second, being an incredible athlete always helps. Finally, it’s encouraging his numbers improved last season despite the aggressive promotion to AA (his walk rate improved w/o sacrificing too many strikeouts).
Speaking of Drew Stubbs, I saw an interesting piece on ESPN comparing Yoennis Cespedes to current young outfielders in the major leagues. The analysts said they liked Cespedes more than Drew Stubbs, BJ Upton, and Colby Rasmus. Pretty impressive!
Do you think there is a good chance the Rangers move Olt? That’s gotta be a tough call for Texas b/c the reports re: Olt’s defense have been really positive. But with Beltre entrenched at third base, I think they’ll probably need to move him to get him in the lineup once he’s ready.
Great question, Peter! Our list is a constant work in progress, and we switch rankings pretty regularly. It’s mainly b/c I admittedly don’t have the information I would need to rank the players w/ the accuracy I would like. But I try to make up for lack of resources by relying on feedback, gathering as much information as possible, and constantly trying to find places where my reasoning can improve.
Switching Cole and Bauer is a perfect example of a pretty blatant switch b/c it’s not based on new information. In this case, I started thinking Cole should perhaps rank a little higher b/c he’s slightly more conventional and was drafted higher. It’s a tough call though! I really like both pitchers, and at this point, I think their value is reasonably interchangeable.
I’m curious about why certain guys fell and rose from the last list to this one. One case of particular interest to me is Cole vs. Bauer. You had Bauer ahead of Cole and now it’s reversed. I’m a big believer in Bauer, not so much in Cole, so I wondered why the change of heart. Thanks!
I wasn’t trying to be critical about Olt’s ranking Brad, I just thought it could lead to a better conversation tha Darvish/Trout. Olt’s hard to rank, just an easy player to monitor as he should drop if he can’t improve at the plate or is moved to the outfield obviously.
Drew Stubbs is a bigger CF. I could see him having production like Stubbs in MLB like you are saying Simon, but he rushes his swing and loses a lot of power not having a strong base. He is having success with the approach, but you’re already seeing the limitations as he isn’t very selective at the plate, or much of a tactician. He still has plenty of time to smooth out his swing, which will lead to him guessing less and not getting eaten alive by offspeed pitches.
I did say I didn’t like player comps. Gose and Trout were very similar prospects at the same age up until Trout’s breakout 2010. The only point I wanted to make was that these rankings are heavily influenced by repetition. A lot of people didn’t buy into Trout until after 2010, not during it. He had different limitations offensively than Gose does, but the Angels cleaned up his long swing and some more time in MiLB won’t hurt. Nobody was calling him a .300 hitter before then.
Nice list jed. I definitely agree on the many players that can challenge for the list.
Thanks Horn! We can absolutely post ETA. I started working yesterday or publishing the 101-250 section, and after that, we’ll do one more list of our Top 250 which incorporates the amateur players. Then, I’ll definitely do something involving ETA’s.
I was also going to let y’all know we are starting a new dynasty league through the site. We have been going over the rules, and it sounds like it’ll be a great league. We still have plenty of spots open, and I thought some of the people on here would be interested in playing. If so, post in the forum or you can just send me an email at boneill@fko-law.com.
http://www.deepleagues.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=637
http://www.deepleagues.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=491&start=60
Been checking out this site for 2 years now, keep up the GREAT work.
Is it possible to have the ETA for these prospects? I am far more interested in the guys that more likely to be in the 2012 big show more so than the guys who may make their appearance in 2014, for example.
Thanks!
There’s one huge difference between Gose and Trout – Trout is likely to hit .300+ in the bigs. Gose hit .250 in AA last year. Drew Stubbs seems to me to be a decent comp for Gose right now – good CF, hits for power, steals bases, strikes out a ton, leading to a low average.
Great stuff, y’all! Yeah, this is probably one of the few lists where Darvish ranks ahead of Trout. The general consensus seems to be Harper/Moore/Trout as the three mega-prospects w/ Darvish ranking behind them in the next group.
I think Rendon is a reasonable pick, Jason. It’s a moderate risk b/c there are some concerns re: Rendon’s health. The problem is-from my perspective-there is no way to know if he fell b/c the concerns are serious. But if you need hitting, I like Rendon enough to believe taking over those pitchers is a decent call despite the MLB teams taking the pitchers.
I was 50/50 about where to rank Olt. I’ve seen some lists that value him at the end of the Top 50, which I think is reasonable considering he offers a combination of power and plate discipline. I probably have him a little higher than I’d like subjectively b/c he only played half of last season, and is yet to reach the upper-levels of the minor leagues.
Great list, Jed! Not sure who I would pick, but several of the players you listed would be in my Top 10 also. I would have Justin Upton on the list. It’s amazing the number of players who could make a case for that list!
Yeah, I think that list is slated for older prospects. I read a message board where Adam Foster talked to Blue Jays fans about that ranking, and even though I disagree w/ him, it’s an interesting ranking which he justified for various reasons primarily involving using a ratings method where many Jays prospects scored lower. I like the Blue Jays and the Rays’ systems more b/c the high failure rate of prospects makes depth really important.
Sorry about the spelling error, Andrew! I will fix. Some of these names are tough to spell, and when you combine that w/ my lack of proofreading and spellchecker not providing much assistance, the mistakes are inevitable.
I believe it’s Oscar Taveras, not Oscar Tavares – minor difference though.
I like the compilation listing of a top 100… but in a case like this year I think you can throw it out the window when it comes down to picking the #1 prospect. IMO Matt Moore and Bryce Harper are 1 and 1A. There is no difference between the two except the fact that Moore has already proven he can succeed at the big league level. If I was building an MLB franchise I think Matt Moore and Bryce Harper would be 2 of the top 10 guys Id list first to start my team.
Here would be my top 10 players to build around:
1) Felix Hernandez — hes still only 25 years old!!!! Best pitcher alive.. just on a horrible team
2) Mike Stanton – BEAST!!!
3) Stephen Strasburgh – I think he is going to have a huge year for the Nats and progressively get better as the years go by
4) Bryce Harper
5) Matt Moore
6) Eric Hosmer
7) Clayton Kershaw
8) Troy Tulowitzki
9) Ryan Braun
10) Evan Longoria – winner!!
Tough crowd. I know I spell the names of prospects wrong all of the time, and read reports with them and don’t read anything into it. Garin Cecchini, Noah Syndergaard, there are some tough ones out there.
Anthony Gose gets talked about a lot here, and I don’t like doing player comps but Mike Trout before 2010 was viewed the same as Gose is now(Gose has a much better arm), and it took a while for people to buy into his breakout 2010 season. Now it has swung the other way.
Darvish has an excellent resume. I think he has to fit between Matt Moore and Shelby Miller on a list in early 2012(Moore as a SP, Miller as a mid-season, Sept call-up) based on expectations for this season.
The main place that sticks out for me on the list is 75 Mike Olt/76 Josh Bell. Bell could easily be in the top 50 by the end of 2012, and Olt needs to hit to have any fantasy relevance at 3B.
Luis Heredia is a nice guy to buy low. Taillon(another hard name to spell) and Gerrit(sp!) Cole are getting hyped as a future 1-2 combo, and Heredia sets up nicely behind them but he is only 17 and not surprisingly only 30 innings of rookie ball.
The difference between Darvish and Trout is that Darvish is already there talent wise (he may take some time to adapt) whereas Trout still needs to develop further – he wasn’t major league ready last year for me.
I think Trout is likely to put up similar numbers to someone like Andrew McCutchen once he’s fully established, which is not necessarily a first round pick. That said, I would take him over Darvish if I had to choose, and it wouldn’t be that close a decision.
***I guess that’s what prospect rankings are all about though, making bold predictions and hoping they pan out!
Yes, I factored that in as well, and I do think Trout will be one more year before cracking the top 90 in fantasy, but talking strictly upside, Trout will be a mid-to-late first round pick in 3 years for a long time, Darvish may be a 3rd or 4th rounder at best. And. that’s not even including the defensive aspect of Trout. Upside is key in these rankings no? I agree with Harper, Moore Trout top 3 in any random order, but can’t go Darvish… and you and I have both been bullish on Darvish for years…
I guess
Hey Brad,
First time question but been reading your site for about 8 months now. I run a dynasty league and we have a roster of 23 major leaguers and 13 minor leaguers. We have a draft every year which works in such a way that the number of people you drop is the number of draft picks you get. In addition, to avoid free for all pick ups at MLB draft time, players drafted are not eligible in our league until our leagues next draft. Given that fact, I have a question about my picks which will be #2 (through trade) and #7. The team with the #1 has already divulged that he will definitely be taking Darvish. I have been looking hard at Anthony Rendon for that second pick. I am already pretty heavy in pitching prospects and wanted to target a hitter with that pick. Think it’s a prudent choice or would you suggest something else?
Hey Brad, that was a good link…
They state the rankings are heavily slated for MLB ready talent, so I have no problem with the mid position of the Jays…Jays are stacked in A ball as they have been drafting HS players like crazy the last 2 drafts.
This year will be thin in getting help from the minors as there is a year gap. We are waiting for the likes of Sanchez, Syndergaard, Marisnick and Nicolino to develop. McGuire and Jenkins might be the only MLB ready prospect, while other notables still may need another year.
Sorry Nate. Fixed it.
Yeah, Trout at #4 is awfully low! He’s an awesome player and you can make a case for putting him in the top spot, but I’m not convinced the breakout will happen this season (it might). In dynasty leagues where teams can often only keep players for a limited duration (ex: average dynasty league is probably five years), one factor bearing some consideration is whether the player will get going quickly once his contract starts running.
I don’t think this logic devalues Trout that much (ex: Harper ranks #1 despite similar concerns), but to me, it’s just enough to put Darvish in the three spot. Darvish at #3 is aggressive, and to some degree, he is different than the other prospects b/c of his age. But for fantasy purposes, I think a 25 year old pitcher who should immediately be in the top of Texas’ rotation is really valuable. But I could easily be wrong and I think lots of people on here would agree w/ you re: Trout>Darvish.
Trout over Darvish Brad. How many kids make it to the majors at age 19? 25-55 potential with 10 gold gloves over Darvish by a mile…….
The last name of your 82nd ranked prospect is “Cuthbert.”
Great stuff, Kyle! I look at it in comparison to current major leaguers too. I wish it could be classified solely on numbers, but there are almost too many factors to define it that way.
Geo, you will not like these organizational rankings! Farm system rankings are pretty subjective, and in past years, some of the systems who ranked really high produced less than expected. I’ve gotta think Toronto will score pretty well on our rankings, which I’ll publish once we rank the 101-250 group. Lots of depth!
http://projectprospect.com/article/2012/01/29/farm-system-rankings
I try to avoid being too bold w/ my rankings. My reasoning is my target is dynasty leaguers, and since teams usually only draft as well as their most aggressive ranking, I am not sure my bold picks will make the teams better. At the same time, bold picks make prospect ranking a lot more fun. For example, Keith Law’s list is always a great read b/c I like seeing which players he ranks aggressively and why. If y’all had to make three bold prospect-related predictions (players who will surge, falter, etc), what would they be? No problem if they don’t happen. Mine are…
1. The trend of Cuban players arriving in the USA will continue to surge, and at least 1-2 of the following players in Cuba (Alfredo Despaigne, Jose Dariel Abreu, Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Yulieski Gourriel) will outperform at least 50 players on this list within the next five years.
2. The value of Red Sox OF Jackie Bradley, Jr. will surge during the season. He will offer a better combination of power and plate discipline than people expect, and make a few ridiculous defensive plays that capture enough attention to give him a surprisingly high ranking in 2013.
3. The Astros’ farm system will rank in the Top 10 (or very close) heading into 2013. It will be in the Top 5 by 2014, and remain near the top for at least 3-5 years.
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what are the stat categories that you use again? anyone want to join a free yahoo deep dynasty league? email vabrad76@yahoo.com
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IMO This is how it should be defined:
1- True stud, ace, David Price, Doc Halladay, Cliff Lee, any guy who would be an ace for 20-25 teams. The low end of that would probably be around Dan Haren IMO.
2- This just screams Matt Cain to me. He’s the perfect example of a #2 guy, where he can be a star but he’s consistantly good. I’d worry about a “#2″ being the very top of the rotation, but if they’re supported by another #2 or even better, sitting behind a #1 then you’ve got a steal. Think Cain, Jaime Garcia, Mark Buehrle, Wandy Rodriguez. The very low end (debatable between 2 and 3) would probably be someone like Scherzer.
3/4- This guy is a solid mid rotation pitcher who can either be consistently average or flashing between a #2 and a #5 type pitcher on any given night. Think of Edwin Jackson, Ivan Nova, Brandon McCarthy, Ervin Santana, Joe Blanton (4), Jeremy Guthrie.
5- Typically interchangable with the long relief guy, he’s basically the “fourth outfielder” of pitching, he’s the one who usually does something really well (eat innings, strike out players, induce groundballs) but has one major flaw (contact rate high, no strikeouts, tires easily). You could maybe get away with this guy at a #4, but any higher and your probably in trouble.
Hey Brad,
Wow, the Gose vs. Marisnick will not go away until they make the majors i suppose!! Funny how even MLB.com had difficulty listing them, so they ranked them beside one another at 57 and 58.
Gose needs some serious plate discipline, or else he’ll become Carlos Gomez instead of Carl Crawford. The advantage that Gose has over any other OF prospect in the Jays system is that he was traded for by current the Jays GM and will be given every opportunity to make the GM look like he didn’t make a mistake.
Marisnick though has it all IMO…defence, speed, power and hit for average!
Good question, Daniel. Trying to classify Pomeranz and then thinking about the number of aces in the majors raises an interesting discussion point. Basically, all prospects are valued based on a combination of upside, proximity, and risk. Scouts use the “#1, #2″ to classify upside, but I’ve always been sorta iffy about those definitions because, for prospect-ranking purposes, the terms seem to refer to more than where the pitcher will be placed in his team’s rotation. Instead, it’s basically asking whether the pitcher offers enough upside to someday perhaps rank among the games elite pitchers. But to my knowledge, the terms do not seem very well defined. What would you all say it should take to be classified as a #1, #2, etc?
Ideally, I think Pomeranz offers the potential to eventually regularly throw 180-200 innings w/ an ERA in the low-to-mid three’s and about 150-175 strikeouts. The other benefit is proximity. He should be reasonably productive in the major leagues next season (I think a good rookie season would be 120-140 innings keeping his ERA below 4). But I’d say that probably puts his upside in the #2 or #3 category.
I might have Pomeranz a little too high? A pitcher who lacks the huge upside should be pretty low risk, so as much as I like Pomeranz (used to watch him pitch at Ole Miss), the argument against putting him in the Top 20 is there are plenty of reasons he might have trouble hitting those numbers.
I am confused by Pomeranz. I like him, but his stuff seems less than “ace” maybe a 2 or 3 in the end. What do you think? (then again I read once that there are only 15 or so “Aces” in the majors any given year) Hitting the low 90s with the fastball is not what I was expecting. Plus he is already 23 years old.
Thanks for the compliments y’all! Really appreciate it! Even though I haven’t had as much time lately as I’d like to work on the site, creating the rankings is a lot of fun and I’m glad they help.
Great question re: Gibson, Mike. The Tommy John surgery will cost him lots of time, which clearly hurts his value. He came into last season w/ a solid ranking, but even before the surgery, his season was somewhat disappointing because he never made the jump from AAA to MIN and posted a pretty mediocre strikeout rate. I’m not sure if the injury partially explains the struggles, but regardless, it really hurt his stock considering a lot of his value was based on the assumption he could be a productive major league pitcher reasonably soon. In terms of whether to hold him, it really depends on the depth of the league. In a league where you can keep tons of prospects, I would keep him. But if you can replace him w/ a Top 100 guy (or about another 40+ players not listed), I would make the switch.
Good comments, Ben. Lee is an interesting player to rank. I think he offers slightly less value for dynasty purposes b/c of the limited power, but that could be wrong considering he projects to be solid in BA and SB. Geo & I frequently discussed Marisnick and Gose during the season. We liked Marisnick more, but I’m not totally convinced we’re right. For example, Adam Foster (from Project Prospect) is less enthusiastic about Marisnick b/c-if I remember correctly-he believes Marisnick’s swing mechanics could lead to problems at more advanced levels. Gose is a great athlete who showed some encouraging improvements as a young player in AA. My only concern is the strikeout rates remain awfully high, meaning he has a challenge ahead trying to reduce his strikeout rate while remaining stable in the other categories. That’ll be difficult, but it’s doable.
Great site! You put alot of work into this. Who cares about spelling mistakes, TRUE fans know who you are talking about. I probably would put Hak Ju Lee in the late 30′s but that’s just my opinion. I like him better than Lindor. I also agree that Marisnick should be higher than Gose but some experts say otherwise. Gose is blazing fast but Marisnick is a better overall player I believe.
First of all, i would like to say i love this site. I stumbled across it last year and it has helped me tremendously. I would like to get your opinion if you think Kyle Gibson is worth holding on to in a deep keeper league. Keep up the good work.
I agree HS players carry more risk, Brad. There are a number of HS draftees w/ high ceilings I did not rank (i.e., Guerrieri), but I think there are always a few teenagers w/ impressive enough skills to justify including. It’s a matter of balancing proximity and upside…plus trying to avoid being too aggressive when the information is limited.
What’s up Tyrus! Last time I talked to you it was about that Jemile Weeks trade! I like those suggestions, especially Casey Kelly. It was disappointing Kelly’s numbers did not improve as much as expected his second season in AA, but he still offers a lot of talent…it’s just a matter of translating it into production.
Good question re: Montero. Going to a less hitter-friendly park does not help his value, but at the same time, I think the potential for increased playing time in Seattle is a benefit of the trade.
All hard players to predict Rowe, but basically, my best guess is all four players will produce in 2012 but slightly below what people are projecting. I would say: (1) Worley moderately regresses but has a decent season in Philly posting an ERA slightly below 4, (2) Pineda also performs slightly below expectation but has a decent season, (3) Belt plays a full season where he is reasonably productive (maybe .270, 18 HR’s), and (4) Kipnis is solid as CLE’s 2B (but produces closer to 10-15 HR’s and SB’s rather than the 20-25 I’ve seen some people project).
Sorry about the misspellings! Besides once pulling off a surprising upset en route to a third place finish in the 1993 St. Michael’s 4th grade spelling bee, I have never been known for my spelling abilities! But rather than the spelling, I would argue the main reason not to take this list too seriously would be my lack of scouting experience. Haha. Which names did I misspell?
Brad what do you see this year for some of the graduates from last year,
Belt, Whorley, Pineda, and kipnes
Whoever wrote this made numerous mis-spellings. Makes it hard to take the list seriously.
With the exception of Harper who is just a freak of nature, I have a very hard time justifying any highschool draftee in the top 100. I see this Lindor kid in so many to prospect lists, and maybe he will turn into a great player, but right now he is nothing more then a huge question mark. Let’s see how he handles single A first before we put him in the top 100.
Hey Bradley, long time no talk!! I really like this list, and if there was three players I would have ranked right now that aren’t it would be Kelly, Williams and Gyorko. I think there are all deserving a ranking but I’m unsure of who to suggest to drop.
Would Montero’s value be hurt since he is moving to SpaceCo Field???