Deep Leagues Farm Draft: STL Breakdown

Following Andy’s model, here is a little about me for those (which I would say is most) that do not know me. My name is Bradley Zill. I am not a frequent poster due to my lack of knowledge for minor league players which I am working on through visiting the site and reading everybody’s comments. I have probably 10 years or so of fantasy baseball experience in both H2H and Roto (no preference). I am never satisfied with my team which shows since I lead in transactions in most free leagues I participate in. My weaknesses are in Sabermetrics and minor league players, but I feel I can provide good analysis on current MLB players, draft breakdowns, etc. concerning MLB despite the weaknesses.

So here is my attempt at explaining what goes on in my head before each pick. Here are a couple of things that must be understood before reading this. First, I do not know anything about prospects that does not come from this site and everyone here that comments. I consider myself a compiler of information to which I try to make logical choices from.

Second, if you walk away from this feeling enlightened about the entire minor league system, consult a professional who knows more about this than I do and let him (or her for political correctness) explain where I veered off path.  Remember I told you right away that I have no creditable knowledge of the minor leagues. I am just hoping this turns out to be a good read.

And finally, I am blunt, straight to the point, and think I have a sense of humor. The first two are personality flaws or that is at least what others call it as I think I make it along just fine. If you read this and feel like I am personally attacking your credibility, I do not mean it to be as bad as it sounds, and once again remember the first thing I mentioned. As for the sense of humor, just skip over those parts.

So for any of that are still around here goes nothing…

My strategy has been looking for depth at all positions. I guess you could say trying to build my own AAA team by making sure I have someone that can play every position. To me this is a riskier draft style due to how hit and miss prospects are. I could hit on all of these guys or miss on all of them, and my draft end up being a complete flop where if you have 10 pitchers your chances go up on catching a good pitcher in the draft even though you have sacrificed depth at other positions. But I decided I would try and pick guys that will end up being top 5 in their respective positions somewhere down the road. Low standards, I know. Also, proximity to the majors did not help or hurt a player in most cases.

Rnd 1 Pick 8 – Shelby Miller (STL-P) Grd A

Reason for the pick: I think I wet my pants a little seeing him drop this far. So after a dry pair of pants I didn’t hesitate to take him.

Other options: I was in talks with TB to switch draft slots from 8 to 13 if Miller or Machado did not fall to me at 8. I was looking at either Cole or Mesoraco in that draft slot.

Worst value: I have to agree with the consensus and say Hak-Ju Lee in the 1st round. But I would say that the pick was only a round off for Seattle. He had a need for a proximate SS and while I would have been more likely to take Tyler Skaggs or Nolan Arenado at this pick, he did fill a need.

Best Value: Julio Teheran falling to 11 was crazy. I had considered taking him at 8 instead of trading the pick, but that is an excellent value at 11.

Rnd 2 Pick 33 – Jake Marisnick (TOR-OF) Grd B+

Reason for the pick: Every time someone mentioned the name Marisnick on this site, there was nothing but good things said. It was so influential that I own Marisnick in all of my other leagues with minor league pools. I just couldn’t let this league be the only one.

Other options: I was looking at 3 others at this pick, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Martinez, and Francisco Lindor. I would have taken any of these 3 if they fell to me.

Worst value: I am going to use my one “hindsight is 20/20” here and go Addison Reed. Reed not winning the closer battle really hurts his value in a 2nd round slot. I thought it was a bit of a reach in general and missing the closer spot hurts him even worse.

Best Value: I really didn’t see anything this round that stands out as a steal. So feel free to insert your team here (except the HOU-Addison Reed pick). Everyone wins this round!…Well almost everybody.

Rnd 3 Pick 53 – Zack Wheeler (NYM-P) Grd B+

Reason for the pick: Leading up to this pick I was really torn between getting a pitcher or another valuable bat. After I realized how much pitching had already come off the board, I figured Zack Wheeler was a good fit.

Other options: Houston swooped in and made my decision easier by taking Yonder Alonso the pick before me. It was really between these two guys with a settle pick being A.J. Cole if Alonso or Wheeler didn’t make it to me.

Worst Value: I thought Kolten Wong (STL-2B) went at least a round too early, and it surprised me enough to effect my next pick.

Best Value: The only round where I feel certain I got the best value out of my pick (of course I really think that all my guys were the best value in the round but that wouldn’t be fair to this article). I was really surprised by both Wheeler not being picked in round 2 and him falling all the way to me in round 3.

Rnd 4 Pick 68 – Eddie Rosario (MIN-2B/OF) Grd B

Reason for the pick: This is another one of the guys that I kept hearing good things about. I actually dug a little deeper and looked at his stats, and I believe he is an excellent guy to have if he shows that he can stick at 2B. I admit that it was a bit of a reach on him, but I didn’t think he would make it back to me in round 5.

Other options: I was originally looking at Matt Adams and Jonathan Singleton. Adams would have been a good fit since I believe he will be up next year, and Trumbo (my current 1B) will be entrenched at 3B. But all of this is in vain as he was taken along with Singleton before my pick.

Worst value: I love my pick of Eddie Rosario and would make the same pick all over again if the situation was the same, but I also feel with the rest of the picks in the round it was probably the worst value. Like I mentioned for round 3, the first 2B (Wong) came off the board a little quicker than I anticipated. I debated on whether or not Rosario would fall back to me in the next round and decided not to chance it. I probably picked him a round too early, but after seeing Spangenberg and Schoop going before my next pick, I feel like I made the right call.

Best value: I think Tyrell Jenkins (74) and Jake Odorizzi (75) were both solid picks that could have possibly gone the round before.

Rnd 5 Pick 93 – Wilin Rosario (COL-C) Grd B-

Reason for the pick: I thought after I made this pick that I would start a collection of Rosario’s for my minor league roster. I am still not against the idea either. But anyways, I was really looking for a C this pick. I missed out on Montero, Mesoraco, and d’Arnaud from the earlier rounds, and I felt like Rosario was the next best catcher. He did have a good spring this year, plays in the Rocky Mountain air, and should be a good backup for Molina.

Other options: The only two guys I was really considering for this pick were Rosario and Blake Swihart (BOS-C). Proximity to the majors is what really swayed my decision since I would have been ok with either of the two guys at this pick. The only guy I would have taken over a catcher was Luis Heredia (PIT-P).

Worst value: So we are starting to get into the range where I start using Bradley’s rankings as a crutch (more like Bradley is carrying a 200+ lb man on his back, but I digress), so from here on out it’s going to be Bradley’s rankings justifying bad picks. So if you are offended, remember, they are Bradley’s rankings not mine, discuss it with him. KC’s pick (Neil Ramirez, pick 95) screams “reach”.

Best value: I like Houston’s pick of Dellin Betances (NYY-P) at 92. I think he might have been a guy that slipped through the cracks.

Rnd 6 Pick 108 – Chris Parmelee (MIN-1B) Grd B-

Reason for the pick: After I made my pick in round 5, I remembered that I was looking for a 1B that could fill in for the 1B void I would have after Trumbo departs to 3B (I have accepted the fact that Trumbo will receive no playing time at 1B). I am glad I didn’t remember this in round 5 as I would have taken Parmelee a round earlier than apparently I needed to.

Other options: Not sure I was really looking at anyone else.

Worst value: To me it is a tie between a pair of Colorado guys, Tyler Anderson (117) and Trevor Story (113).  When looking at Bradley’s rankings, the Anderson pick screams REACH (and yes Seattle, I did read your analysis before I started working on this round). As for Story, he is log-jammed behind Tulowitzki with no shot to make it out of AAA unless he moves to probably 2B or the OF. Other than that I have no qualms with the pick.

Best value: Best value has to be Tyler Ander…oops reading the wrong line. That is still the worst pick…Taylor Jungmann (CHC, 118). Another guy that I feel slipped through the cracks. See Seattle, you could have had the best valued pick in round 6 and still got your guy in round 12…I mean 7. No more picking on Seattle for me.

Note to Seattle: Bradley ranked Tyler Anderson at 179 not me. So get mad at Bradley.

Rnd 7 Pick 133 – Fautino De Los Santos (OAK-P) Grd C

Reason for the pick: He fits into my MLB strategy for this league (another topic for another day), and I didn’t feel like he would slide any further.

Other options: It would have taken me 6-8 hours to find another pick for this spot, so instead of filling with B.S. I will spend 15 seconds saying I don’t know what my other options would have been.

Worst value: How can I criticize other reliever picks this round when I myself picked a reliever. So I guess all I have to say is at least I didn’t pay for holds in round 2…Just a reminder I warned everyone of my behavior when I began.

Best value: I like Nathan Eovaldi at pick 136. Bryce Brentz (132) was a close second.

Rnd 8 Pick 148 – Ravel Santana (NYY-OF) Grd B-

Reason for the pick: One day I am going to ask how everyone determines upside. I think that is where I really am lacking in assessing minor leaguers. To me Ravel Santana has good upside (if I am wrong there is a comment section down below for everyone to let me know). I think I read somewhere that he has a 5-tool ceiling and I fell for it. Who wouldn’t want 5-tools in round 8 when all the 6-tool guys went several rounds before. So I said what the heck.

Other options: I was going between the two Santana OF’s (more on the other in the next round), but I will tell you I did choose the right one here.

Worst value: Once again by rankings, KC’s pick of Jonathan Villar (151) was a couple of rounds too early. Bradley is a Houston fan and he still ranked him really low. That has to be some kind of red flag warning to avoid. “REACH!” Seattle you are now off the hook with the Tyler Anderson pick.

Pick I liked: I am changing from value based to more of the pick I liked. As we are getting a little deeper we are starting to reach more into personal preferences and getting really close to a point where I no longer consider a pick a reach (sorry KC, still considering “reaches” this round). I liked Joe Panik (143) and Robbie Grossman (149).

Rnd 9 Pick 173 – Domingo Santana (HOU-OF) Grd C+

Reason for the pick: I heard a few (or maybe just one that sounded like a few) comments that Domingo Santana could break out this year. And let’s face it; the Astros are going to need some kind of good news like this for the year. Other than that I have no justification for this pick. Score: Rosario’s 2- Santana’s 2.

Other options: I was considering him for round 8 so since he fell I saw no need in looking for someone else.

Worst value: I have nothing so I will point you in the direction of CHC analysis.

Pick I liked: I liked Lance Lynn at 170. Ok, so I lied. I was looking at taking Lynn this round if he fell to me.

Rnd 10 Pick 188 – Jennry Mejia (NYM-P) Grd B-

Reason for the pick: I started to forget that pitching depth is a good thing, and the forgetfulness seems to be related to some sort of short-term memory loss as my future picks will show. No particular reason for this pick other than the thought that Mejia was the best available pitcher at the time.

Other options: I was looking at Jeurys Familia for this pick as well, but he was taken earlier in the round. I am not quite sure why I am drawn to Mets’ pitching. I think I need to consult someone about my problem.

Worst value: By now everyone is branching out to gut feelings and guesses (as am I). At this point as long as you are not drafting 30 year olds I would say you are good.

Pick I liked: I liked Eduardo Sanchez (191). He has had a strong spring this year which should put to rest any concerns about his shoulder.

So for a recap of my picks:

Shelby Miller (8)

Jake Marisnick (33)

Zack Wheeler (53)

Eddie Rosario (68)

Wilin Rosario (93)

Chris Parmelee (108)

Fautino De Los Santos (133)

Ravel Santana (148)

Domingo Santana (173)

Jennry Mejia (188)