Since Bradley has been working very hard to start up his law firm, we (a group of twelve different site regulars) decided to fill in for him in submitting the first Top 100 prospect rankings of 2012. These rankings aren’t just a single person’s thoughts or ideas, but rather a consensus of the entire group’s opinion, they took their own top 100 prospect list and submitted it. What came out was the average of the rankings for each player, as decided by the group.
The rankings are completely unedited, and very largely based upon personal opinion, that way we get any range of votes and you see how the opinions vary. For example, Christian Yelich was ranked between 32 and 40 for every single voter, so his ranking is pretty consistent across the board. On the other hand, Billy Hamilton ranged from 33 to 67 on people’s rankings, showing his inconsistencies and relating to his boom-bust type talent.
The rankings are a combination, so no one person can say “this is why this happened” as it is a collective effort. On the other hand though, it’s been really interesting to hear people add tidbits to players and show why they leaned that way.. We think that having all this information will allow you to make more informed decisions, so long as you make sure you do your research and study up on players. The goal of this was to give you as much information as we possibly could, and allow you to pick and choose what you like and didn’t like.
In the post we give you average ranking position (average of the 12 rankings), Best (Highest Ranking), and Worst (Lowest Ranking) to give you the best picture of the range of the player’s talents. This should help people see how the rankings really ranged.
Feel free to express your concerns, likes, dislikes, and any such critiques or applauses about the list that you have. I know myself, Andy, and the majority of the rankers will be available for comment and to talk about the list.
Thank you and enjoy,
The Rankers
Rank. Name – POS, Team – (Avg) [Best,Worst]
1. Bryce Harper – OF, WAS – (1.67) [1,3]
2. Mike Trout – OF, LAA – (2.25) [1,3]
3. Matt Moore – SP, TB – (2.42) [1,4]
4. Jurickson Profar – SS, TEX – (4.58) [3,6]
5. Shelby Miller – SP, STL – (6.58) [4,9]
6. Jesus Montero – C/DH, SEA - (6.67) [4,14]
7. Manny Machado – SS, BAL – (7.33) [2,11]
8. Julio Teheran – SP, ATL – (7.42) [4,16]
9. Gerrit Cole – SP, PIT - (9.83) [8,12]
10. Dylan Bundy – SP, BAL – (9.92) [7,14]
11. Trevor Bauer – SP, ARI – (10.33) [8,15]
12. Jameson Taillon – SP, PIT – (13.08) [10,15]
13. Devin Mesoraco – C, CIN – (13.92) [11,17]
14. Anthony Rendon – 2B/3B, WAS – (14.50) [11,20]
15. Nolan Arenado – 3B, COL – (16.75) [11,25]
16. Travis d’Arnaud – C, TOR – (17.92) [12,25]
17. Tyler Skaggs – SP, ARI – (18.25) [10,23]
18. Taijuan Walker – SP, SEA – (19.58) [14,28]
19. Bubba Starling – OF, KC - (19.67) [12,24]
20. Jacob Turner – SP, DET – (20.00) [15,23]
21. Drew Pomeranz – SP, COL – (20.08) [13,32]
22. Archie Bradley – SP, ARI – (20.50) [5,27]
23. Wil Myers – OF, KC – (20.92) [18,24]
24. Miguel Sano – 3B, MIN – (22.67) [10,31]
25. Danny Hultzen – SP, SEA - (22.67) [16,28]
26. Carlos Martinez – SP, STL – (25.83) [22,29]
27. Francisco Lindor – SS, CLE - (28.17) [18,32]
28. Xander Bogaerts – SS, BOS – (29.75) [26,39]
29. Jake Marisnick – OF, TOR – (30.08) [26,40]
30. Jarrod Parker – SP, OAK – (30.08) [25,33]
31. Zack Wheeler – SP, NYM – (30.92) [22,37]
32. Gary Brown – OF, SFG – (33.08) [26,43]
33. James Paxton – SP, SEA – (34.42) [26,58]
34. Martin Perez – SP, TEX – (35.33) [30,47]
35. Christian Yelich – OF, MIA – (36.92) [32,40]
36. Oscar Taveras – OF, STL - (37.83) [27,64]
37. Manny Banuelos – SP, NYY – (40.00) [22,60]
38. Randall Delgado – SP, ATL – (41.75) [31,52]
39. Josh Bell – OF, PIT – (42.33) [32,72]
40. Matt Harvey – SP, NYM – (43.00) [36,54]
41. George Springer – OF, HOU – (43.00) [34,62]
42. Yonder Alonso – 1B, SD – (43.17) [29,86]
43. Brett Jackson – OF, CHC – (44.08) [35,65]
44. Billy Hamilton – 2B/SS, CIN – (45.58) [33,67]
45. Yasmani Grandal – C, SD – (48.58) [39,60]
46. Jean Segura – 2B/SS, LAA – (48.83) [41,67]
47. Anthony Rizzo – 1B, CHC – (48.92) [38,85]
48. Arodys Vizcaino – SP, ATL – (51.25) [34,94]
49. Jake Odorizzi – SP, KC – (51.75) [41,59]
50. Gary Sanchez – C, NYY – (52.08) [37,70]
51. Javier Baez – SS, CHC – (52.25) [43,69]
52. A.J. Cole – SP, OAK – (52.58) [44,65]
53. Noah Syndergaard – SP, TOR – (54.42) [42,80]
54. Rymer Liriano – OF, SD – (55.00) [49,73]
55. Kolten Wong – 2B, STL – (57.08) [46,71]
56. Anthony Gose – OF, TOR - (57.50) [51,69]
57. Jonathan Singleton – 1B, HOU – (58.67) [40,78]
58. Brad Peacock – SP, OAK – (59.42) [48,76]
59. Hak-Ju Lee – SS, TB – (59.67) [33,71]
60. Jared Cosart – SP, HOU – (59.75) [51,72]
61. Robbie Erlin – SP, SD – (60.00) [47,73]
62. Michael Choice – OF, OAK – (60.17) [38,73]
63. Zach Lee SP, LAD – (62.92) [38,75]
64. Cheslor Cuthbert – 3B, KC – (63.33) [54,77]
65. Nick Castellanos – 3B, DET - (64.83) [45,89]
66. Trevor May – SP, PHI – (64.83) [48,78]
67. Nick Franklin – SS, SEA – (65.17) [38,80]
68. Starling Marte – OF, PIT - (66.33) [55,81]
69. Daniel Norris – SP, TOR – (67.00) [55,83]
70. Leonys Martin – OF, TEX – (67.08) [41,92]
71. Will Middlebrooks – 3B, BOS – (69.08) [46,88]
72. Tyrell Jenkins – SP, STL – (71.67) [58,89]
73. Sonny Gray – SP, OAK – (73.58) [55,79]
74. Cory Spangenberg – 3B, SD – (74.33) [64,96]
75. Ryan Lavarnaway – C, BOS – (74.67) [58,99]
76. Mike Olt – 3B, TEX – (75.67) [67,84]
77. Tim Wheeler – OF, COL – (78.67) [67,98]
78. Casey Kelly- SP, SD – (80.08) [65,100]
79. Zack Cox – 3B, STL – (80.75) [43,UR]
80. Joe Wieland – SP, SD – (82.25) [59,UR]
81. Mike Montgomery – SP, KC – (82.67) [56,UR]
82. Eddie Rosario – 2B/3B, MIN – (83.50) [67,99]
83. Dellin Betances – SP, NYY – (87.83) [73,UR]
84. Drew Hutchison – SP, TOR – (88.92) [43,UR]
85. Taylor Guerrieri – SP, TB - (89.75) [79,UR]
86. Addison Reed – RP, CWS - (90.00) [66,UR]
87. Zack Cozart – SS, CIN – (90.75) [79,UR]
88. Jedd Gyorko – 2B/3B, SD – (91.75) [76,UR]
89. Nestor Molina – SP, CWS – (92.33) [66,UR]
90. Justin Nicolino – SP, TOR – (93.00) [71,UR]
91. Taylor Jungmann – SP, MIL – (93.33) [63,UR]
92. Jonathan Schoop – 3B, BAL - (93.67) [77,UR]
93. Wilin Rosario – C, COL - (94.17) [80,UR]
94. Matt Barnes – SP, BOS – (94.33) [69,UR]
95. Brandon Jacobs – OF, BOS – (96.33) [83,UR]
96. Jose Campos – SP, NYY – (98.17) [86,UR]
97. Jed Bradley – SP, MIL – (99.42) [64,UR]
98. Mikie Mahtook – OF, TB – (99.75) [87,UR]
99. Mason Williams – OF, NYY – (100.75) [78,UR]
100. Blake Swihart – C, BOS – (102.08) [88,UR]
First 5 Players out:
Luis Heredia (SP, PIT), CJ Cron (1B/DH, LAA), Matt Szczur (OF, CHC), Matt Adams (1B, STL), Oswaldo Arcia (OF, MIN)
I wanted to formally recognize Andy for his great work on the rankings and he was instrumental in the creating of the rankings, the organizing, as well as helping out bring in people, and he deserves the majority of the credit for putting these great rankings together, so thank you Andy (from the whole group of Rankers).
Well, now that you’ve seen the numbers, feel free to comment away!
@RobbyRob
DS was right. Jackson has an abysmal K rate. Taveras is the complete package, Jackson isn’t really elite at any tool. He can be a solid regular but Taveras can be an all star.
Death Speculum (Dodgers)
Can you please explain why Jackson shouldn’t be anywhere near Taveras? Does the Speed/Athleticism, and proximity to a call up mean anything?
this list really is a bit safe. i think it’s fair to say that will myers, sano and taveras are all top 15 material at this point. brett jackson shouldn’t even be in the same vacinity as taveras.
to be honest i think the list is weak…recycled many guys that were on lists before the year started and last year…..i think when some of the better prospect sites do there mid-year rankings (law-goldstein-BA) it will look very different than this list….think you guys went the very safe route here……
Thx Geo. I appreciate it!
Derrick:
These are both similar players in which their greatest asset is defense…Well defense is not a dynasty stat.
Although I think Lee is the most overrated prospect for Dynasty purposes, you will also fetch a greater return for him. Lee’s numbers are slightly better then Segura in the SB and AVG column, but Segura has potential to get you a bit more power. Also keep in mind, depending on your team positioning and salaries, the path to major is clear for Lee and should be playing next season full time.
My suggestion would be to trade Lee as he will get you more in return. Lee only has SB and possibly Rs to offer for your Dynasty team.
So…. hak ju lee or jean segura? I have both and want to move one for anothe piece.
I think Christian Bethancourt will surprise a lot of people in the end. He has power potential like a lot of catchers do but he also steals bases and has the potential to hit .300. He’s 20 years old and already in AA where he’s currently hitting .268 which isn’t bad for a 20 year old. Hasn’t hit a homer yet but already has 4 steals. He reaches his potential and you might be seeing a 20/10 guy with a .300 average which isn’t bad for a CA.
I like it because they are currently that way in my book (Taveras up over Turner) but you may have bought high on Taveras and sold low on Turner.
Just traded Jacob Turner away straight up for Oscar Taveras in a league with a 23 major league, 13 minor league roster and I feel great about it. Been getting a 3 – 4 starter feel about Jacob for awhile and Oscar looks like he is making run for the top. What do you guys think?
Yep, nothing in there about the “Boston Hype Machine.” So how is it hating to say I like Joseph Ross over anything Aaron Sanchez’ stat line gives you, because he has a much much much higher floor than Sanchez?
AviFAIL Garcia:
I think you are missing the premiss of THIS website. Most other websites are listing top prospects for teams, so defense and other intangibles are taken into account, like working counts as you mentioned. THIS website is geared for playing dynasty baseball, therefore stats are important. Working with stats is essential for our list. As far as seeing every prospect live, I am sure most of us here have not seen ALL prospects live. I know I have seen Aaron Sanchez and Justin Nicolino pitch live at Lansing, but i am not going to hate on others who don’t like them.
Stats are trends with players…hitters are more obvious then pitching.
@Derrick that is how bad this list is. I am used to seeing better from this site. It’s laughable to compare Xander Bogaerts to Avisail Garcia. I’d be fine if this list was basically taken from other top 100 lists, with some consideration given to stat lines of the current season. There’s a lot more to predicting future success, which is painfully obvious here.
You are kidding, right?
Ross will be a starter, and can be one of the top prospects in the Padres’ system by the end of the year, and a September call up in 2014. He is 18 and incredibly talented. I am willing to bet you have never seen Joe Ross pitch if you are willing to end the conversation with his MiLB stats. I’d take him over Aaron Sanchez and his stat line…
Yep, let’s keep trashing Xander Bogaerts as overhyped or whatever nonsense(Avisail Garcia is comparable value…hahahahahahaha), Xander reached base in 20 straight games from April 10th to May 2nd.
I could care less, and I can nearly guarantee the Red Sox could care less about his “stats” this year. He is working counts and has a much more advanced approach to the plate. He has improved his approach a lot from last year.
That said about Bogaerts, Bryce Harper is only 15 days older than him.
@kpulek again great job only 1 comment Matt Barnes is looking like a top 40 guy. Very impressive so far
@avifail dude step off it. Dont like it dont read it. No reason to be disrespectful. That level of behavior is immature. If youre dissappointed try being constructive and again respectful or find a different site to act 12.
@kpulec thx for the thoughts. My expectations arent set for weekly updates lol. Saw HakJu Lee is well thought of by klaw, but seems to be off to a rough start. Any positives for him? I have jean segura as well and want to trade one. Thoughts?
Man-oh-man…I think people are forgetting that this is a site primarily based for deep DYNASTY leagues…position priorities and high ceiling prospects are what I think this site is mainly about.
I don’t care that a prospect is going to make it, or that a pitcher is a solid ground ball pitcher. I want stats…I like this site because it prioritizes fantasy stats, PRO and CON. Until someone like Joe Ross (as mentioned) controls his ERA and WHIP, this list may not be for him. He is even a fringe top 10 prospect on SD, let alone a top 100 list anyways. No doubt Joe Ross will be good player, but until his stats producing Dynasty interest numbers, you may not see him here.
Joe Ross A lvl – 6.26ERA – 1.61WHIP
Xander Bogaerts has not shown great dynasty numbers yet, he has intangibles that are valuable to Boston, but not to a fantasy team.
Oscar Taveras has had a fantastic start to this season, he will certainly climb the list as the season goes on. Even MLB.com had him rated 96th at the beginning of the season. Most lists had him rated too low at the beginning of the season. But he will climb and the comments on this site have already acknowledged his great start.
I guess not everyone can be pleased…Dam, even K-Laws professional list with analysis is only done a couple times a year and you require to pay. I love that haters and players comment here, it keeps the site interesting…
You aren’t saying anything…you compared Xander Bogaerts to a “project” like Avisail Garcia. That’s beyond ridiculous. Garcia is on a much faster timeline than Bogaerts, and isn’t anywhere near his potential.
I don’t care where you want to place Joseph Ross. It’s a joke he isn’t even mentioned on this list. He’s one of the youngest and most talented players in the minors.
Feel free to rant all you want. Each person made their own rank.
At that, I don’t see Joe Ross as a top 100 prospect. He’s closer to 125 IMO.
And as for that talk about Taveras, I had him at 27th (the highest of anyone) but I’m not flaunting him. I haven’t seen a single “expert” rank Taveras in the top 15 before this season, and I don’t see you bashing them.
I’d love to see where I said that Avisail Garcia was as good of a prospect as Xander Bogaerts. Quoting from above:
“Am I saying that Avisail is better than Xander? No”
You have someone that ranked Oscar Taveras 64TH…SIXTY-FOURTH!!!
I called this kid well before he was on any major lists, it’s funny he is even behind Yelich, because I don’t even see that.
Who wants to read a top 100-list when Mark Appel isn’t even mentioned as being added to your update? He should be in the top 50. If you disagree, I doubt you have ever seen him pitch live, much less seen him pitch on video.
Take a stand and give an actual opinion on prospects. If I wanted an aggregate list of top 100′s, I’d just program a bot and do it myself.
Why don’t you find people that are dedicated to updating their top 100 every week? Better yet, stand behind your own opinion.
Joseph Ross should have been on this list even if it was outdated. Has anyone of these “rankers” even seem him pitch, or SEEN him? There’s plenty of players that should be on this list and names that are head-scratching even if this list was done in April.
The little analysis that is given, is highly questionable…AviFAIL Garcia is just as good as Xander Bogaerts? Obviously his stolen bases are undervalued, and Xander is just a product of the Red Sox hype machine(their most recent draft has gotten off to a fantastic start in the early minor league season), yeah right.
@Derrick
With there being 10+ rankers, getting them to rank 100 prospects weekly is nearly impossible. However if you read through the comments section, there’s plenty to love and read about to get a head start.
In fact, I think I might write up a post about players who are jumping up in rankings fast. I should post it later today (working on it now). Hopefully it gives you a good look into who’s up and coming.
Are you guys going to annotate movement like last year, ie upwards and downwards arrows etc; as well ad comments ont performances this year. I added Skaggs last year early as i watched the comments poor in and have been rewarded. Got a jump in my league because of the consistant updates. Thanks for that.
Derrick
@stathawk
Thanks, we appreciate it!
@AMH
No, we really compiled these rankings in the last week of April, so all information is up to date until then. Recent injuries/promotions are not taken into account.
We hope to do another list close to the ASB when MLB draft prospects are signed (July 15th deadline for signings) so that we get a big timeframe of change.
In the next update hopefully we get big changes (Taveras, Myers, Aaron Sanchez, Bundy, etc.) along with new draftees (Buxton, Correa, Gausman, etc.) that way we’re not repeating everything that you just read.
Do the rankings take into account Josh Bell’s recent surgery?
very nice job & the best list DL has ever put out!
Sorry, we’re only considering prospects that have graduated from amateur status (which is why no draft prospects, or Soler). Buxton, you wouldn’t rank in my top 30 though, you’ve got potential to the moon but your tools are really lacking. IMO Starling had better tools coming out than you, and he’s sitting at 19 (and lower on my list).
And Gorkys Hernandez, that’s an odd sighting. You would think that you’d be in the gym right now, trying to improve upon your 1 home run in 2011, and your .108 isolated power. And considering that you haven’t otherwise stolen more than 21 bases in a year other than the 54/65 SB year, I’d label that as more of an outlier than a rule. But nice of you to drop by, I hope to see you hit onto the big league scene soon as PIT fans are always clamoring for the newest and greatest to come up.
It is I, Gorkys Hernandez. I had 54 of the stolen bases in one single year of playing A-ball.
You should have studied up on me before making this list!
Sorry kiddo, Dave Dombrowski already has to put me on the 40-man to protect me. Xander has two more years, but the Tigers might have to add me to the 25-man next year! You might be laughing about me, Danry Vazquez and Hernan Perez in a few years. I can only hope to be as good as my hero and fellow Venezuelan Gorkys Hernandez.
Isn’t that crazy for a Venezuelan that strikes out once a game? You’re funny to say I am as good as Senor Xander, my average is super duper but I can’t take a walk worth a damn compared to him. I doubt I can keep my average up at higher levels without taking more walks!
Thank you for caring about me stealing bases. A-ball catchers are a true test of stolen base success at the MLB level(not really, that is a joke.).
Sorry Jed,
My knowledge for a mock draft is limited…I don’t know enough about all of the college and high schoolers OR even teams philosophies for drafting to be much help. Good idea and good luck…
Id be down with that Red. I’ve been studying up on them recently.
Guys… just a thought.. but I saw that BA released their first Mock Draft for 2012 today.. I think we should come up with our Mock Draft through the end of the Compensation round and post it on here… any takers??
My only saving grace for Gose is that his entire Minor League career he has played at a level or two higher then his age. If he played a second year this season in AA, I am sure he would be ripping it up in New Hampshire. Hopefully his batting can mature in AAA for another year after this.
Avisail Garcia – This will be your second year in A+ ball in the FSL so your numbers need to increase to get noticed. Your average has already improved and you are on pace to increase your power numbers, so keep up the good work.
Well Geo all three of them have specific “enticing” traits that will always keep them above all else:
1. Bogaerts plays in Boston
2. Sano has amazing power, but will end up like Adam Dunn likely
3. Gose has prolific tools, but little skills other than defense and speed
Each of them have their “thing” that will keep them elevated over other deserving prospects for future lists. Gose isn’t a top 60 prospect, he’s a tools guy (like Jiwan James, Larry Greene, etc. on the Phillies) and those guys aren’t even ranked or close to it! I know Gose has “all-star” in permanent marker all over his name, but he hasn’t really shown me at all that he can live up to it. He seems like he’ll really end up turning into a fantastic defensive OF (one of the best) with awesome speed, and decent power with zero ability to hit above the mendoza line.
Kyle, here are my thoughts for low starts…
Xander Bogaerts – hopefully his Avg picks up a bit. He has 2 things going for him that will keep his ranking higher then it should be. 1) Plays a premier position 2) Plays in a major market that influences MLB rankings to overrate its prospects.
Miguel Sano – For me, his KK rate is alarming bigtime…how far down the prospect ladders did Anthony Gose fall because prognosticators are worried he may become Carlos Gomez instead of Kenny Lofton or Carl Crawford with all of those KKs. I agree power numbers are great, but Adam Dunn like numbers are dynasty killers. Sano is still young and hopefully the Twins don’t rush him.
Anthony Gose – At the pace Gose is at this year, I am officially declaring any list with Gose ahead of Marisnick in its top 100 a joke!
Matt Moore – I know he’s a rookie this season on TB, but I am hoping that 2011 wasn’t just a fluke super season. He is seriously struggling at the MLB level! He may graduate soon, but i am concerned.
Avisail, so kind of you to drop by. What I find so amazing about you is that you are 240 lbs (compared to the 175 lb Bogaerts) and yet you stole 14 bases last year, oddly enough it’s DOUBLE what Xander has stolen in his entire career.
Avisail @ 19/20 in A+ (2011): .264/11/14 w/ K% of 25.6%
Xander @ 18 in A (2011): .260/16/1 w/ K% of 24.0%
Hmmmmm so both were playing below their respective ages, Avisail had a higher average (slightly, but nearly double ABs) and 13 more SB (huge difference), Xander had 5 more home runs (a good amount) and a slightly better K% (but only half the at bats).
So, tell me Avisail, would you say that your 5 less home runs and slightly worse K% make you drop over 380 prospect spots below Xander Bogaerts?
Am I saying that Avisail is better than Xander? No, because when we bring in positional value, 3B (Xander’s eventual position) is greater than RF, undoubtedly. Xander has a higher ceiling, pretty close to as high as any if everything clicks. Is Xander worthy of being an “elite” prospect at #28 when Avisail wouldn’t even be considered for a top 250 list? No, I don’t think that’s right. Avisail deserves much more respect for his potential, and Xander has much much much to prove that he’s deserving of being over guys like Marisnick, Taveras, Hamilton, Segura, among many others. Xander will land right around 50 for me on the next list unless his tools start really proving he deserves to be that high.
Xander Bogaerts has over 50 pounds and a year or 2 in age on me. If I make it to MLB, I will be pwning buffets with Prince and Miguel, and only be able to play right field. I strike out a lot and need to make a lot of contact to continue to have the same success at the plate.
Con mucho gusto Senor Pulek, pero Senor Bogaerts es mejor! Andale pues.
Here’s my list of Disappointments and Top Performers thus far…
TOP 4 DISAPPOINTMENTS:
1) Manny Machado
2) Anthony Rendon
3) Dellin Betances
4) Hak Ju Lee
Top 4 Performers in 2012
1) Wil Myers
2) Dylan Bundy
3) Oscar Taveras
4) Nick Castellanos
Honorable Mentions: Archie Bradley, Jose Fernandez, Matt Barnes, Kolten Wong, Francisco Lindor, Will Middlebrooks, Evan Gattis, Alen Hanson, etc
I think the 6 I like the most from my list are (in no particular order)
Henry Owens
Ravel Santana
Elier Hernandez
Avisail Garcia
Adys Portillo
Yordano Ventura
I might be too high on Owens, but that K rate early on is tantalizing.
For discussion purposes, who are guys who you are low on this season?
My 3 would be:
1. Xander Bogaerts – Hitting .257 this year so far, his ISO is down (.184 this year, down from .249 last), and I just think that a “project” like him can be found much later. Avisail Garcia (look him up) has legit 25/15 potential, and won’t be found in any top 100 lists. Xander could warrant future consideration, and he’s doing better with his “K rate” (16.7% vs. 24.0% last year), however I think that there are better options at the top of lists that need to be explored (safer guys) and guys who are all upside are really not enticing to me. If a later guy flames out, so be it, and you move on and dig up a new one. If your #2 pick flames out, then you’re in trouble because they were expected to at least be a MLB regular. Bogaerts IMO wouldn’t be higher than 45 on any list today.
2. Miguel Sano – Yes, he has Mike Stanton power. Yes, he can hit the ball over the light posts. Yes, he strikes out 33% of his ABs. Before you call me a hypocrite for ranking him in my top 10 2013 prospects, I’m defending my stance saying that power sells. Regardless of truly how good his hit tool is, his power will be his “tool” that makes people say wow and rank him high. However, I think that eventually his .421 OBP will drop and he’ll return closer to the .350 mark he posted last season. That means that he won’t walk as much, and his average will likely drop to the mid .280s. Do I believe that he will be a true slugger in the majors? Absolutely. Will he strike out a lot and probably be less effective because of it, limiting him to a big bat with a low average? Yes. Remember, at the same level (albeit a year older) Mark Reynolds only struck out 25% of his at bats.
Mark Reynolds career minor league K rate (1216 ABs): 26.4%
Miguel Sano career minor league K rate (598 ABs): 29.5%
3. Will Middlebrooks…just kidding.
3. Mike Montgomery – A former top 25 prospect, Montgomery has had his fair share of blowups and terrible outings to push him down towards the bottom of the top 100 list. And that won’t change anytime soon. He’s got an ERA of 4.98, WHIP of 1.544, and a not-so-studly K/9 of 6.3, good for about nothing. He one ups himself with a walk rate (BB/9IP) of 3.9, making a fancy 1.60 K/BB. Ugly. And the knockout punch? Not only is his ERA terrible in the 34.1 IP (4.98 ERA), but his FIP (expected ERA) is WORSE, at 5.09. I don’t know about you guys, but he looks like a top prospect who’s collapsing and falling HARD, a la Matzek 2011. If you own him, I’d sell him to the guy using the 2009 Prospect Magazine, or else you’re not going to get much for him. However, you can hopefully still use name value to entice someone into buying him. Other KC prospect pitchers I’d take over him? Yordano Ventura, Jake Odorizzi, Jason Adam, Bryan Brickhouse, Kyle Smith. All but Odorizzi were ranked beneath him to start the year. Montgomery is a waste of space on any Top 100 Prospect list until he shows some progress.
I personally own none of these guys and really have no desire to own any of them in any league (except Sano, who I think will be valued insanely high next year just because of his top 10 rank), but I’d love to hear some great counter arguments as to why you think these players are completely deserving of their rank. Feel free to post your own lists as well, I’m definitely interested to hear.
Cody Buckel
Austin Hedges
Henry Owens
Brian Goodwin
Ravel Santana
Elier Hernandez
Miles Head
Wilmer Flores
Enny Romero
Jackie Bradley
Yordana Ventura
Eugenio Suarez
Nomar Mazara
Danry Vasquez
Vicmal De La Cruz
Martin Peguero
Luis Sardinas
Brandon Drury
Michael Fulmer
Luis Heredia
Avisail Garcial
Rosell Herrera
Daniel Corcino
Alex Meyer
Luigi Rodriguez
Olacio Jefferson
Adys Portillo
Justin Grimm
Highest Ceiling (only pure ceiling):
1. Luis Heredia – Has the Best Pitcher in MLB POTENTIAL
2. Elier Hernandez – Matt Kemp POTENTIAL
3. Nomar Mazara – has the POTENTIAL to hit 40 HRs
4. Ravel Santana – Jacoby Ellsbury POTENTIAL (less HR)
5. Adys Portillo – #1 Starter POTENTIAL
6. Avisail Garcia – Potential 35/20 POTENTIAL
Best Chance of Ceiling (of those 6):
1. Ravel Santana – Has flashed 5 tools, but still rather raw
2. Adys Portillo – Shown 3 plus potential pitches, just needs refining
3. Luis Heredia – Could blow up (in an ACE way, or in a bust way)
4. Elier Hernandez – Needs discipline refinement
5. Avisail Garcia – Needs better plate discipline and hit tool
6. Nomar Mazara – Long ways to go; power is main tool
My 3 Safest:
1. Daniel Corcino – Throwing dirty in the Minors this year
2. Jackie Bradley – 20/20 threat in CF
3. Austin Hedges – At worst, becomes Jeff Mathis; elite D