Author: Geoff Falbo (aka Geo007)
May 28, 2012
Lately I have been finding it easier and easier to trade replaceable prospects for higher ceiling prospects from opponents in my leagues. I thought I should write an article to describe the theories I have been using and some of the flaws that are out there when reviewing “top prospects”. Here we will examine in 3 case studies some of these statistical flaws in rating prospects that do not translate to Dynasty numbers. I will not be recommending that you consider trading these players I mention below, but I will point out some ranking statistics that you should consider when owning them. Some flaws will be obvious to seasoned players, while other points should always be taken into consideration only. The more information you have the better.
For example, let’s look at the way scouts review position player prospects. 5 tools are generally ranked and rated for position players: Batting Average, Power, Speed, Defense and Arm Strength. When looking at these 5 basic points you can easily determine that 2 of the 5 tools really don’t translate to dynasty numbers yet they account for 40% of the players ranking in some cases. As long as your prospects are average or better in Defense and Arm Strength, you should really be concentrating on the other 3 tools when grabbing your prospects.
Let’s face it, primarily at draft times, casual dynasty players will scan a few top prospect sites for some lists and arm themselves with enough data to get them through the draft and season. Many lists out there post TOP PROSPECTS based on all 5 tools we mentioned above. Even some prospect lists have a primary goal on whether the player will make it to the show and then what will their impact be.
I have identified 3 players in which we can review (I know there are more out there). These players are on most top 100 lists, and if you own one of them I will arm you with some information you can use to trade and get max value in return.
Discussion 1
Anthony Gose, OF, Toronto Blue Jays, AAA – PCL
On most top 100 lists and in most cases within the top 50.
Assets: Has blazing speed, excellent defense and an above average throwing arm.
2009 – 76 SB
2010 – 45 SB
2011 – 70 SB
Negatives: Extremely high KK total , low BA in all levels of the minors, path blocked to the Jays. Jake Marisnick closing the gap for top OF prospect in the Jays system.
2009 – 21% KK rate, .259 avg, 2 HR
2010 – 26% KK rate, .262 avg, 7 HR
2011 – 30% KK rate, .253 avg, 16HR
2012 – 28% KK rate, .241 avg,
Exceptions: Was indirectly part of the Roy Halliday trade so the expectation for him to play on the Jays are high. Has played much above his age level in the minors.
Gose is currently a below-average hitter, which is a bit puzzling considering his lightning-fast hands, but with excellent defensive tools and impressive speed numbers, this has kept him still high on prospect lists. Yes those SB numbers are very impressive and would be loved by any dynasty owner, but the rest of what Gose has to offer your team is not good enough. A poor BA and low output on power makes him too one dimensional for most Dynasty teams. Dreams of him ever being the next Carl Crawford or Kenny Lofton with his pattern of a low BA don’t look to be coming true.
Recommendation: Sell High, attempt to get a legit top 40 prospect
Discussion 2
Hak-Ju Lee. SS, Tampa Rays, AA – SOU
On most top 100 lists and in most cases within the top 50
Assets: Premier position in SS, top rated defensive SS, hits for average and speed
2009 – .330 avg, 25 SB
2010 – .282 avg, 32 SB
2011 – .292 avg, 33 SB
2012 – .240 avg.
Negatives: zero power for HR or RBI totals, hits for contact with not enough BBs to take advantage of his speed for more SB numbers
2009 – 2 HR
2010 – 1 HR
2011 – 5 HR
Exceptions: plays for TB that supports a feeding farm system, no block to the majors, Key return factor in Garza trade, should play in the majors full time in 2013
Hak-Ju Lee exploded on the scene last season and at one point was even in the top 20 as far as top prospects. That has since leveled off a bit, but lists that acknowledge his great defensive skills as an asset do very little for your Dynasty numbers, other then keeping him in the lineup. Some Dynasty players would be satisfied with getting a superior number in one category from a SS position, but a batting average shouldn’t be one of them. There are so many better options. In my opinion, he is the most overrated prospect for Dynasty purposes, take advantage of this.
Recommendation: Sell high while the hype is still there, difficult to trade for another SS (poor comparison numbers), may have to trade for a top 30 pitcher as a recommendation
Discussion 3
Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Colorado Rookies, MLB club
On most top 100s, within top 30 and top LHP
Assets: Good KK ratio, Durable pitchers frame, excellent ERA in minors, mature 3 pitch pitcher, extremely tough on leftie hitters
2011 – 1.78 ERA, 10.6 K/9 AA/AAA
Negatives: Pitches in Colorado, Pressure to perform as part of the Jimenez trade, Pitches in Colorado and did I mention that he pitches in Colorado
Exceptions: Will be given every opportunity to succeed in Colorado, plays on the MLB club currently
I don’t have too many statistical negatives about Drew Pomeranz, he is a very good pitcher. BUT I would avoid Colorado pitchers like the plague. Other then Ubaldo Jimeniz’s amazing 2010 season, most others performances have been less then par. Expect a higher then normal ERA having to deal with the high alts in the Rockies as the ball tends to carry. Even when Jeff Francis was having stellar seasons, his ERA was unacceptable for Dynasty teams. And let’s not even talk about Mike Hampton…
Recommendation: Sell high before he pitches further in the MLB season for Colorado!! Equal value can be found outside of the Rockies…
All and all, hopefully you have learned some tools here in what to look for and avoid when trading asset. Defensive specialist type players are great to have on your favorite baseball team but not your Dynasty team. If defense was a Dynasty stat then Jose Iglesias and Adeiny Hechavaria would be 1-2 on the list, but those guys are having trouble hitting a beach ball let alone a baseball…
Other tricks I found when maximizing value is getting to know where your opponents are from…generally overrating your hometown prospects is quite common, so trading a 50th ranked prospect from their home city can fetch you a great return.
Good Luck in the season and looking forward to hearing your comments…
Bryan,
Wow, so you have Hanley, Moose, Arenado, C Davis, and Alvarez? Yeah, you can probably start moving a few of these pieces to address other needs. Of course, you would get the best return with Hanley – I’m not sure how many of the other guys here would agree, but I would be perfectly happy with Moose at 3B and I would consider shopping Hanley around, maybe you land a “Trout” + a nice prospect, or something similarly drool-worthy. Of course, make sure your SS is sufficiently covered for the remainder of this year.
With this depth (and if you are paring down), I say: shop Hanley for a BIG return (keeping in mind he still has 3-4 years of top fantasy value), consider Moose as your primary 3B, retain Arenado as your secondary 3B, shop Davis and Alvarez (or just drop Alvarez, depending on whether your league is OBP or counts Ks). The only loss in moving Hanley would be SBs, so make sure your remaining lineup/trade returns address this deficit.
Just my opinion!
Cheers,
Brian
Thank you gentlemen,
I did forget to mention that I have Hanley plugged at SS this year but he’ll only have 3B eligibility for me next year…how does this change your opinions?
“All of this to say – our strategies seem very different, as your reply regarding Middlebrooks makes clear. But in your situation, I would be shopping Arenado, not Moose.”
Solid advice. In almost any dynasty there’s someone who will love Arenado.
Not sure why you would consider selling your best, and really, only solid 3B option… Moose is clearly the best of this bunch, and while Rendon could be good his injury history makes him very iffy. Not to mention that many analysts have him moving off of position due to Zimmerman’s long-term contract.
Therefore, if you move Moose, you are essentially trusting that Arenado will become an above average option. Without power (see: this year), he’s a hit-for-average option that won’t get to glimpse the middle of the order. Alvarez and Davis are, of course, fillers at best.
All of this to say – our strategies seem very different, as your reply regarding Middlebrooks makes clear. But in your situation, I would be shopping Arenado, not Moose.
I’d have no reservations about trading Middlebrooks right now, which brings me to a pretty good “Sell High Question”…
I’ve waited on Moustakas, Chris Davis & Pedro Alvarez over the past two seasons. I’ve also got Arenado (and Rendon) so I’m at the point where I need to make a move.
Nobody in our league will touch Davis or Alvarez (same with Middlebrooks) so should I sell high on Moose or trade “the next Vinnie Castilla”?
Sean,
While I agree with you in principle, I think Middlebrooks is an interesting case for a couple of reasons. First, his big league success, while probably a tad inflated by the SSS, is not coming out of nowhere. His last two years in minor league ball have been trending toward this type of performance, and we see evidence that his approach has been replicated so far (he’s a good doubles/power hitter, and a mid-to-high strikeout type). Second, he’s one of those “transitional” players – dual-sport athletes typically need a few years to make “baseball” adjustments, and he’s been one who has done this better than most. To the point, his defense is actually pretty good, and he’s been surprisingly keen on the basepath. Third, he is all but guaranteed a prime future spot (or at least opportunity) in a premier lineup, which should buoy his counting stats a bit once the dust settles in Boston. All in all, I think that he’s probably got as good a chance as any to be a top 8-12 future 3B, which is worth holding (in my opinion). Certainly, the return would have to be very good.
Just my two cents!
Agreed, Sean. I’ve always been a huge fan of selling mid-level prospects after their first taste of major league success.
I learned that lesson about 5 years ago when I got an awesome trade offer for Jeremy Sowers after he threw back-to-back shutouts his rookie season. I knew I should have accepted the trade, but I rejected it thinking “what if I trade a future star at the first sign of big-league success?”
Ever since then, I’ve been better about selling young players on a run that does not seem sustainable. This season, my best sell high was JD Martinez in late-April, except I made a mistake getting Tommy Hanson in return instead of some other pitchers.
“One issue I always have with prospects is the ability to hit MLB”
Absolutely. That last level is the toughest. However I think this is a great time to sell high on Middlebrooks (going back to the topic of this post). EXACTLY because this is the time when all his owners are probably holding tight. His first 100 plate appearances look great on the surface, but he’s also got: 3.9% walk rate, 28.2% K-rate, .391 BABIP, 24.0% HR/FB. Does ANYONE here really need a crystal ball to figure out what’s going to happen to him going forward? That isn’t to say he can’t have a good career or whatever, but in the short-term he’s an overvalued stock. To me, the REAL sell-high is your brain recognizing when to sell a player when your heart doesn’t want to. I think most fantasy vets are not getting carried away by Middlebrooks so far, but if someone in your league really wants him, I would oblige.
“Being able to look at the full picture of numbers and tools is obviously the best way to go about it.”
That’s kind of an empty statement I think, almost like saying “Being able to be right about which prospects will succeed is the best way to go about it.”
I guess where I come at it is, most of us probably avoid leagues where there are suckers who make dumb trades. So assuming everyone in your league has some idea what they are doing, most effective trades come from having two owners with different goals each getting what they want. So if you have two people who value prospects differently, they can make trades they will be happy with and we can see which philosophy does better over time.
Thanks kyle, ryne, geo and dee.
I’ve backed off and decided to keep Middlebrooks. I countered with Olt + a throw-in. I doubt he’ll go for it.
I’m still hoping Texas will transition Olt to 1B, but I think a trade this summer is more likely.
Appreciate the advice.
I think trading Middlebrooks for Singleton is fine but I still would think you could get more. One issue I always have with prospects is the ability to hit MLB and Middlebrooks has proven it but I still think that Singleton is has a higher ceiling. I think the fact that Middlebrooks has proven he can hit should get you more then just another prospect, especially since the Red Sox are reworking their lineup each night just so they can keep his bat in there.
Jayhawk: IMO, trading for a 1B prospect is a no-no unless they’re elite…1B is usually thin in prospects because many 1B players don’t start out as 1B players when drafted, they become converted.
I think you have good 3B prospects already if you must trade, I think Middlebrooks can fetch you more…
Singleton is dominating AA at 20 years old and has far less red flags in his scouting report than Rizzo does. Middlebrooks still has too much swing-and-miss in his makeup. I’d take that trade any day of the week. Heck, I’d trade Rizzo for Singleton. What Singleton is doing is rare for a prospect his age. He’s the best 1b prospect by a decent margin, and the numbers and scouting reports back me up on that. Take it and don’t look back.
I think that if I’m trading Middlebrooks right now, it’s really only for Rizzo or a top 25 prospect. He’s in the majors and proving he can hit major league pitching, which is an obstacle that many prospects can never do in general, so he’s earning his MLB stripes. Rizzo would be my top target, or I’d go after a guy like Yonder Alonso. 1B is relatively deep in the majors, but in the minors it’s the worst position. I’d aim for Yonder Alonso, because I think Will is worth more than Singleton.
trade advice please…
I took over a decrepit team and have acquired a dearth of prospect talent via draft and free agency.
My 1Bs are Konerko, Loney and David Cooper (recent pick-up) and I’m expecting Ryan Wheeler to get a call from Arizona or traded (I know a friend of his) so I’m keeping an eye on him. Konerko is 36 and I’m not gonna make the playoffs this year, so I’m looking for a future 1B.
I’m targeting Singleton, but the guy wants Middlebrooks. I’m generally against trading a young power hitting corner IF in a dynasty league, but 1B is just soooooo shallow.
My other 3Bs include Arenado and Olt. Matt Davidson is also on free agency right now.
Would you give up Middlebrooks for Singleton or just hold steady and try and find a 1B next year? I think Konerko might have 1 or 2 years after this left.
To put a better perspective on Colorado’s pitching, here has been their team pitching since the new millennium.
year – ERA – NL rank
2000 5.26 15th
2001 5.29 16th
2002 5.20 16th
2003 5.20 16th
2004 5.54 16th
2005 5.13 15th
2006 4.46 13th
2007 4.32 8th
2008 4.77 15th
2009 4.22 8th
2010 4.14 12th
2011 4.43 15th
2012 5.16 16th (current May 27/12)
Now beyond year 2000 I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt as they were still a newer team trying to build up talent, but the last decade or so has not looked good either. I am not sure which is which, ballpark factor or the team philosophies, but their pitching has not been good…and these are teams that have made it to the playoffs with horrible pitching stats. This is why ANY dynasty player should stay away from Rockies pitching.
Sean I think the key is balance. the report on Taveras is that his max effort swing would doom him and he would have to change that. Well how many people are complaining now? Being able to look at the full picture of numbers and tools is obviously the best way to go about it. Personally I always skew towards number though, because fantasy baseball is more about what you have done and proved you can do over what you could potentially do in the future. Projection doesn’t win leagues, stats do.
Pomeranz was sent down about 3 weeks ago and is still in AAA. Also Coors field hasn’t ranked 1st in HR allowed since 2002. And actually haven’t even made the top 5 a couple of years. Currently it is ranked a distant 4th. However Coors Field has given up the most hits the past few yrs and looks to be continuing that streak this season
Some people place a lot of weight on the prospect’s statistical performance in the current year (they’re the people trading for Billy Hamilton). Others look more at the overall scouting report or a writeup from someone like Sickels (they’re the ones who have been holding on to Aaron Hicks). Once you figure out which side of the fence you are on, it should be easy enough to make deals with people on the other side. Whether it ends up being a sell high is probably dependent on how you look at it… prospects are such a crap shoot in the end, after all
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***My error on the current 2012 stat numbers for Gose and Lee. Gose has recently been on a hot streak (.290) while Lee is still hovering around .240