Another two weeks, another prospect list. Sorry that we are a day late, I was unable to post yesterday (school graduation) but I’m back for today. We’ve got the new draftees on the list, all those that have signed. If they have not signed (Giolito, Almora, Appel) they will not be on the list as they are not “MLB Prospects” yet by the technical term. You will find Carlos Correa (21), Byron Buxton (34) and others on the list though. Without further ado, get reading!
Rank. Name - POS, Team (Change) Comment
1. Jurickson Profar – SS, TEX
2. Dylan Bundy – SP, BAL
3. Trevor Bauer – SP, ARI
4. Wil Myers – OF, KC
5. Gerrit Cole – SP, PIT
6. Taijuan Walker – SP, SEA (-2)
7. Travis d’Arnaud – C, TOR (+2)
-Has been really hot as of late, nearly justifying Keith Law’s #4 ranking
8. Oscar Taveras – OF, STL
9. Francisco Lindor – SS, CLE
10. Shelby Miller – SP, STL (-4)
-Velo is down, and he’s been given a “no shake” rule because he’s throwing the FB too much
11. Jameson Taillon – SP, PIT
12. Danny Hultzen – SP, SEA
-Promoted to AAA with Nick Franklin. Very much earned.
13. Zack Wheeler – SP, NYM
14. Julio Teheran – SP, ATL
15. Manny Machado – SS, BAL
16. Anthony Rizzo – 1B, CHC
17. Jose Fernandez – SP, MIA (+26)
-An adjustment showing just how dominant he’s been in Low-A as a righty this season
18. Billy Hamilton – 2B/SS, CIN
-On pace for 150 SB this season
19. Nick Castellanos – 3B, DET
20. Anthony Rendon – 3B, WAS (+5)
-Recently reported that he should be back in August, so off the INJ listing
21. Carlos Correa – SS, HOU (+80)
-Our first draftee, he’s got the sky as his ceiling, biggest issue is he may move to 3B
22. Nolan Arenado – 3B, COL
23. Tyler Skaggs - SP, ARI
24. Christian Yelich – OF, MIA
25. Carlos Martinez – SP, STL
26. George Springer – OF, HOU
27. Jake Odorizzi – SP, KC
28. Jonathan Singleton – 1B, HOU
29. Jake Marisnick – OF, TOR (-7)
-Hitting .258 on the season
30. Xander Bogaerts – SS, BOS
-Been growing on me, showing more skills from his tools including quite a few walks
31. Archie Bradley – SP, ARI (-15)
-Has come back to earth, this ranking +/- 5 spots seems about right for him. Control is an issue (5.7 BB/9)
32. Miguel Sano – 3B, MIN
33. Nick Franklin – SS, SEA
-Getting a (well deserved) promotion to AAA
34. Byron Buxton – OF, MIN (+67)
-Second draftee, has the highest ceiling (Matt Kemp style player) but also a low floor
35. Jacob Turner – SP, DET (-11)
-Still young, spot starting for the Tigers tomorrow, but numbers are still just okay
36. Bubba Starling – OF, KC (-8)
-Had a hit and then pulled his hammy in AB #1 of the career. When he starts playing he’ll start moving up
37. Gary Sanchez - C, NYY (+7)
38. Kolten Wong – 2B, STL
39. Matt Barnes – SP, BOS
40. Noah Syndergaard – SP, TOR (-8)
41. Trevor Story – SS, COL
-Scary home/road splits, Las Vegas might be inflating his numbers quite a bit
42. Jean Segura – 2B/SS, LAA
43. Yasmani Grandal – C, SD (-10)
-Waiting for the promotion to the bigs, should come after the firesale at the deadline
44. Javier Baez – SS, CHC
45. James Paxton – SP, SEA (-7)
46. Mike Olt – 3B, TEX (+17)
-He strikes out, walks, or hits homers.
47. Matt Harvey – SP, NYM (-10)
48. Robbie Erlin – SP, SD (-12)
-Should be a tad higher but draftees and Short Season players are pushing up the list
49. Trevor May – SP, PHI
50. Manny Banuelos – SP, NYY (-10)
-Still is getting beat up. Will he ever recover?
51. Aaron Sanchez – SP, TOR
52. Anthony Gose – OF, TOR (+21)
-Tools are turning into skills. Could overtake Marisnick if they both keep trending the same as now
53. Eddie Rosario – 2B/3B, MIN
54. Max Fried – SP, SD (+47)
-The best HS arm, could be a #2 starter down the road and has good projection
55. Kyle Zimmer – SP, KC (+46)
-The second college pitcher off the board, could be up in late 2013 to help the Royals in the race
56. Jesse Biddle — SP, PHI
57. Daniel Norris – SP, TOR
-Had a fantastic debut last night, could be a top 35 prospect by the end of the year
58. Rymer Liriano – OF, SD (+8)
-Starting to heat up from a bad start. Has great tools and potential
59. Jorge Soler – OF, CHC (+42)
-Finally he signs, was compared to about the 5-7th pick of the MLB Draft, with likely better upside. Toolsy.
60. Michael Choice – OF, OAK
61. Brett Jackson – OF, CHC (-13)
-K rate is abysmal, and scary bad when you think of him facing MLB Pitching
62. Cory Spangenberg – 3B, SD
63. Starling Marte – OF, PIT (-11)
64. Jedd Gyorko – 2B/3B, SD
-Could be in the bigs this year. Has a chance to be a solid 2B player in the majors for a long time
65. Brad Peacock – SP, OAK (-10)
66. Gary Brown – OF, SFG (-13)
-Showing zero power in CF this year. Ceiling looking much lower than before
67. Leonys Martin – OF, TEX
-Promotion to MLB, should be a solid regular after hitting .344 in AAA (PCL)
68. Mason Williams – OF, NYY (-10))
69. David Dahl – OF, COL (+32)
-Toolsy player, has very good upside here, especially in Colorado
70. Cody Buckel — SP, TEX (-13)
-Rumor is he should be promoted soon. Biggest knock on him is his height
71. Tyler Austin – 3B, NYY (+19)
-Showing power/speed talents, could be a top 40 prospect in 2013 if he continues
72. Justin Nicolino – SP, TOR
73. Zach Lee – SP, LAD (-13)
74. Tony Cingrani – SP, CIN (-9)
75. Josh Bell – OF, PIT (-21)
-Still injured and demoted. Should rise quickly if he produces however.
76. Martin Perez – SP, TEX (-29)
-A 4.90 ERA and only 45 K’s (36 BB) are pretty ugly numbers this year
77. Taylor Lindsey – 2B, LAA (-9)
78. Jose Campos – SP, NYY
79. Tyrell Jenkins – SP, STL
80. Matt Davidson – 3B, ARI
81. Hak-Ju Lee – SS, TB (-10)
-Has a .622 OPS on the season
82. Mikie Mahtook – OF, TB
83. Derek Norris – C, OAK (+18)
-Could be an all-star catcher one day with his combo of power and ability to take a walk
84. Taylor Jungmann – SP, MIL
85. Taylor Guerrieri – SP, TB (-9)
86. Gavin Cecchini – SS, NYM (+15)
87. A.J. Cole – SP, OAK (-15)
-Still needs to improve command, but getting better. Could be back up next list
88. Austin Hedges — C, SD (-8)
89. Yordano Ventura — SP, KC
90. Daniel Corcino – SP, CIN (-20)
-Hype has settled down, probably belongs a tad higher but is back to earth after riding the hype-coaster.
91. Wilmer Flores – 3B, NYM (-12)
-Rumor is promotion to AA coming up soon
92. Jonathan Schoop – 3B, BAL
93. Garin Cecchini – 3B, BOS (+8)
94. Jackie Bradley Jr. – OF, BOS (-11)
95. Tyler Thornburg – SP, MIL
96. Jed Bradley – SP, MIN
97. Nestor Molina – SP, CWS (-9)
98. Rougned Odor – 2B, TEX (-23)
-Hard to rank a guy who’s injured over many other quality performers who are playing. Injury adjustment.
99. Zack Cox – 3B, STL (-10)
100. Blake Swihart – C, BOS (+1)
HM: Oswaldo Arcia, Marcell Ozuna, Tommy Joseph, Nick Travieso, Mark Appel (unsigned), Lucas GIolito (unsigned), Kevin Gausman (unsigned), Albert Almora (unsigned), Mike Zunino (unsigned)
Newcomers on the List
Anthony Rendon (INJ/20), Carlos Correa (draftee/21), Byron Buxton (draftee/34), Max Fried (draftee/54), Kyle Zimmer (draftee/55), Jorge Soler (signee/59), David Dahl (draftee/69), Derek Norris (83), Gavin Cecchini (draftee/86), Garin Cecchini (93), Tyler Thornburg (95), Blake Swihart (100)
Fallers off the List
Jarred Cosart (64), Cheslor Cuthbert (81), Sonny Gray (84), Tim Wheeler (85), Christian Benthancourt (93), Casey Kelly (94), Dante Bichette Jr. (95), Matt Szczur (97), Chad Bettis (98), Luis Heredia (99), Joe Ross (100)
Graduates (must be at least under consideration for Top 100)
Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Matt Moore, Jesus Montero, Devin Mesoraco, Drew Pomeranz, Jarrod Parker, Yonder Alonso, Randall Delgado, Will Middlebrooks, Joe Wieland, WIlin Rosario, Zack Cozart, Drew Smyly, Lance Lynn, Drew Hutchinson, Matt Adams, Addison Reed, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrelton Simmons
Injuries (must be out for season)
Arodys Vizcaino (projected rank of 54)
Thanks for reading, comment below!
Jays sign top rated international player…
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2012/07/blue-jays-sign-no-1-international-prospect-franklin-barreto/
For the record, I was kidding when I suggested Ken Griffey Jr as a comp for Byron Buxton. I think a Torii Hunter is a more accurate comp. I dont think Buxton has the power that Kemp would ever have. Everyone compares him to Kemp though…
Let us know what you think MHz…
@MHz Per MLB.com (which I think is the end-all-be-all in terms of definitions)
To be eligible for a list, a player must have rookie eligibility. To qualify for rookie status, a player must not have exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues, or accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the 25-player limit period, excluding time on the disabled list or in military service.
Just saying, Andrew was correct.
@ MHz,
Who would you compare Byron Buxton too? Without getting out of this current generation, he could be a young Ken Griffey Jr? Perhaps that is stating too much? What are your thoughts?
@MHz
“There haven’t been 5 prospects in the last 15 years with a higher ceiling than Evan Gattis…oops, I meant Josh Hamilton. I can’t think of one without the other(because of drugs!)…”
Huh that’s funny. Only 5 prospects in the past 15 years?? According to ESPN latest hitter ranks for fantasy baseball, Josh Hamilton ranks 10th!! And 4 players ranked above him are outfielders!!!
Andrew, that is a prospect as defined by Baseball America. That is not mentioned anywhere in your paragraph. Obviously Nick plays in a league with a different definition for a prospect.
How hard would it have been for anyone to just rank the graduated players instead of talk about how easy it is?
There is an incredibly heavy reliance on statistics on this site. Manny Machado might not put up numbers, but his worst case scenario is repeating AA next year, and still being one of the youngest players at that level. Josh Sale is another example over heavy reliance, same with Xander Bogaerts.
These is also a lot of…to put it nicely…color commentary. Haha, I know I can google scouting reports of players, how about giving your own opinion on a player? Nice job ripping on MLB rankings, they include video so I can least assume they have seen the players on the field. Nice job as well of ripping on MLB and defining “spots” as some kind of linear measurement, and then going off on a tangent about how prospects are in flux(?), and a control group.
It doesn’t seem that you understand the purpose of a control group. No matter what data you are describing, obviously you would like to “measure” it in some fashion. That’s why the criticism of MLB and “spots” sounds peculiar. There is plenty of color commentary on how prospect evaluation is a constant process, but MLB somehow is assumed to be ranking prospects on a linear scale where a spot is a unit of measurement.
I think the Byron Buxton/Matt Kemp is a very lazy comp, but it pales in comparison to the previous Evan Gattis:Josh Hamilton comp(Xander Bogaerts:Avisail Garcia an honorable mention). There haven’t been 5 prospects in the last 15 years with a higher ceiling than Evan Gattis…oops, I meant Josh Hamilton. I can’t think of one without the other(because of drugs!)…
An honest criticism, the majority of this looks like it is taken from comparing to other top 100 lists or rankings, some google searches for scouting reports as mentioned, a cursory look at statistics, and personal preferences(of course with plenty of color commentary).
@N1AK
I don’t think he’s all too high. I mean he’s been down a little but for overall fantasy purposes I think that he could be one of the best hitting shortstops as he has a very smooth swing and some pop.
On that note, take a look at all the SS talent coming up through the minors:
Lindor, Story, Franklin, Profar, Machado (could stick), Bogaerts, Hak-Ju Lee, Correa, Baez (could stick), Hamilton (likely won’t stick).
Lindor is a bit high isn’t he?