Top 100: By ETA

I know this is one of the more popular requests. To know who is going to come up and when, so I figured it’d be a good topic for a post. Now, there are some caviats to the post that I have to mention before you can go on reading:

1. I am in no team’s front office. I have no idea if a team wants to fast-track a player to the majors or give him developmental time (extra) in the minors. I do not have ANY knowledge of that.

2. I cannot know every team inside and out. Sure, I have a general idea of who can do what, but who knows when the Rays are going to pick Wil Myers over Brandon Guyer? I don’t and likely neither do you. So I’m doing my best to use my knowledge of each regime to know that the Rays will be conservative with Myers while someone like the Tigers like to get the guys up fast.

3. I cannot predict the future. If someone blows up spring training, they may be a major league player a year ahead of schedule. I can’t call that and I won’t try to either. But I am going to make my best guess based on past performance.

4. Finally, each one is an ESTIMATED Time of Arrival. Many of those listed at “2014″ WILL IN FACT receive trials in September of 2013. There’s a good possibility. I cannot try to predict the difference between April 2014 prospects and July 2014 prospects, so I won’t try. The prospects all vary, someone like Mason Williams will likely be seen in mid-2014, while Billy Hamilton will for sure be up in September 2013. I tried to average the two and find a good point where I think the player will begin to hold down a regular major league gig. So Hamilton is listed at 2014, because I don’t think he’ll be a regular player in 2013 more than a typical 4-5th outfielder, but he will steal some bases. If I’m not recommending them in 2013, it means that I don’t think they are worthwhile drafting in April to see the results in September. In fact, most prospects aren’t worth the results that they bring. Many are, at best, league average. Don’t let Trout-Mania let you think that someone will become the best player in baseball every year out of the minor leagues, it just doesn’t work like that.

So, keeping all of that in mind, here’s my best call as to your Top 100 Prospects (and HM’s!) personal ETAs:

April 2013 – I’m fairly confident that these players will open up the season in the major leagues. These are worth-while

85. Dan Straily (SP, OAK) 
HM. Leonys Martin (CF, TEX)

April to June 2013 – I think these guys will be up early in the season. They could be Day 1 Ready, but I’m non-committal. Likely they will be up with a strong Spring Training, but if not they should appear by June/July once the Super 2 Deadline has passed.

1. Jurickson Profar (SS, TEX)
7. Shelby Miller (SP, STL)
11. Trevor Bauer (SP, CLE)
16. Travis d’Arnaud (C, NYM)
18. Tyler Skaggs (SP, ARI)
26. Trevor Rosenthal (RP, STL)
29. Mike Olt (3B, TEX)
52. Jedd Gyorko (3B, SD)
53. Casey Kelly (SP, SD)
58. Chris Archer (SP, TB)
65. Jake Odorizzi (SP, TB)
80. Avisail Garcia (RF, DET)
83. Adam Eaton (CF, ARI)
HM. Wily Peralta (SP, MIL)
HM. Tony Cingrani (SP, CIN)

April to September 2013 – I really have no idea what these teams are thinking. For Perez: As a RP he could be an OD player, as a starter he needs some work. For Adams: It depends on when the Cards get an injury. He’s ready, but might be a trade chip. He’s one to watch (power bat).

75. Martin Perez (RP, TEX)
86. Matt Adams (1B, STL)

June to September 2013 – Depends on team need. Most of these guys will come up early due to a major league player injury or just incompetence. So be on the lookout starting in May for any signs.

2. Oscar Taveras (CF, STL)
3. Wil Myers (RF, TB)
4. Dylan Bundy (SP, BAL)
5. Xander Bogaerts (SS, BOS)
6. Gerrit Cole (SP, PIT)
9. Mike Zunino (C, SEA)
14. Zack Wheeler (SP, NYM)
24. Kevin Gausman (SP, BAL)
30. Danny Hultzen (SP, SEA)
44. Jackie Bradley (CF, BOS)
55. Nick Franklin (SS, SEA)
63. Julio Teheran (SP, ATL)
90. Aaron Hicks (CF, MIN)
95. Daniel Corcino (SP, CIN)
HM. Marcus Stroman (SP, TOR)
HM. Kyle Gibson (SP, MIN)

Sometime 2014  – These guys vary. Some may get a 2013 September trial, some may not. Keep your eyes open in August for any team hints. Most of these guys will only play in spots in September, but should land a gig in 2014 for at least a platoon, likely a full time role. I wouldn’t waste a draft pick in 2013 on them (redraft) but they could be WW steals.

8. Jose Fernandez (SP, MIA)
10. Taijuan Walker (SP, SEA)
20. Billy Hamilton (CF, CIN)
21. Jonathan Singleton (1B, HOU)
22. Nick Castellanos (RF, DET)
27. Noah Syndergaard (SP, NYM)
36. Anthony Rendon (3B, WAS)
39. Carlos Martinez (SP, STL)
41. George Springer (CF, HOU)
45. Matt Barnes (SP, BOS)
49. Jesse Biddle (SP, PHI)
50. Oswaldo Arcia (RF, MIN)
54. Justin Nicolino (SP, MIA)
56. James Paxton (SP, SEA)
60. Michael Wacha (SP, STL)
61. Mason Williams (CF, NYY)
62. Tyler Austin (RF, NYY)
64. Chris Stratton (SP, SF)
71. Cody Buckel (SP, TEX)
72. Kolten Wong (2B, STL)
73. Wilmer Flores (3B, NYM)
74. Brian Goodwin (CF, WAS)
87. Allen Webster (SP, BOS)
88. Matt Davidson (3B, ARI)
91. Nolan Arenado (3B, COL)
98. Jarred Cosart (SP, HOU)
99. Yordano Ventura (SP, KC)
100. Brad Miller (SS, SEA)
HM. Jonathan Schoop (2B, BAL)
HM. Richie Shaffer (3B, TB)
HM. Michael Choice (CF, OAK)
HM. Henry Owens (SP, BOS)
HM. Rymer Liriano (RF, SD)

2014 to 2015  – These are Late-2014 guys, potentially 2015 guys. They are good enough to play in 2014 if they have a great 2013 season, but a decent or average season may pull them back to 2015.

35. Aaron Sanchez (SP, TOR)
66. Alex Meyer (SP, MIN)
76. Trevor Story (SS, COL)
HM. A.J. Cole (SP, OAK)
HM. Slade Heathcott (CF, NYY)
HM. Marcell Ozuna (RF, MIA)
HM. Jake Marisnick (CF, MIA)

2015 – Should be similar to the 2014 class, just a year later. A little more variance here. Some could sneak all the way up to July 2014, while some could be relegated to September 2015 or 2016, neither of which is improbable for a few guys. These are your best bets to find the “diamond in the rough” that goes from good Top 100 player to Superstar prospect. For the high upside seekers, check this group out. The top tier College players from the 2013 draft will fall in this group as well.

12. Javier Baez (SS, CHC)
13. Jameson Taillon (SP, PIT)
15. Miguel Sano (3B, MIN)
17. Robert Stephenson (SP, CIN)
19. Christian Yelich (CF, MIA)
28. Archie Bradley (SP, ARI)
31. Addison Russell (SS, OAK)
32. Jorge Soler (RF, CHC)
33. Gary Sanchez (C, NYY)
34. Taylor Guerrieri (SP, TB)
38. Alen Hanson (SS, PIT)
42. David Dahl (CF, COL)
46. Gregory Polanco (CF, PIT)
47. Albert Almora (CF, CHC)
48. Kyle Crick (SP, SF)
51. Clayton Blackburn (SP, SF)
57. Bubba Starling (CF, KC)
59. Yasiel Puig (RF, LAD)
67. Kyle Zimmer (SP, KC)
68. Delino DeShields Jr (CF, HOU)
69. Eddie Rosario (2B, MIN)
77. Michael Fulmer (SP, NYM)
78. Jose Berrios (SP, MIN)
79. Corey Seager (3B, LAD)
81. Joe Ross (SP, SD)
84. Dan Vogelbach (1B, CHC)
93. Roberto Osuna (SP, TOR)
97. C.J. Cron (1B, LAA)
HM. Victor Sanchez (SP, SEA)
HM. Brandon Nimmo (CF, NYM)
HM. Zach Lee (SP, LAD)
HM. Nick Tropeano (SP, HOU)

Late 2015 into 2016+ – These are your HS players from the 2012 draft. A lot of 2013 draft college players will fall into this group as well, with the very best in the group above. Potentially the fast moving High School players (the very best) will emerge here in 2015/2016 range.

23. Carlos Correa (SS, HOU)
25. Byron Buxton (CF, MIN)
37. Max Fried (SP, SD)
40. Francisco Lindor (SS, CLE)
43. Austin Hedges (C, SD)
70. Lucas Giolito (SP, WAS)
82. Stryker Trahan (C, ARI)
89. Josh Bell (RF, PIT)
92. Joey Gallo (3B, TEX)
94. Max Kepler (CF, MIN)
96. Luis Heredia (SP, PIT)
HM. Courtney Hawkins (CF, CHW)
HM. Lewis Brinson (RF, TEX)
HM. Lance McCullers (SP, HOU)

 

There you have it, an ETA list from the Top 100 Prospects. Nothing is set in stone, and I’m uncertain of some of the 2013 listings. So the 2014 and beyond ones have much to change. Keep a lookout for any movers, because the better they do the faster they’ll climb the ladder!

As always, I’m available in the comment section to answer any questions that you have about players in specific on or not on this list.