I’m going to come up with some hypothetical trades between minor league players that we can use to value them against each other. Almost a prospect comparison, but a little more complex than that. I’ll give you three trades, and you tell me which side you would pick and why.
These trades are purely hypothetical, and I am not seeking advice. I’m just interested to see if this intrigues anybody. Assume that each team has mediocre MLB hitting and pitching (average on both accounts) with decent minor league depth (no spot will be left barren). Pitchers and hitters are weighted equally in the league.
A: Austin Hedges and Oswaldo Arcia
B: Gary Sanchez and Bubba Starling
A: Alen Hanson and Brian Goodwin
B: Jackie Bradley and Trevor Story
A: Trevor Rosenthal and Kolten Wong
B: Carlos Martinez and Eddie Rosario
These are three interesting trades. I tried to pick some higher upside players and some safer players to compare and mix and match for these deals. My personal opinion would be:
A: Hedges/Arcia. I pick this side because I’m honestly that against Starling. He won’t be high on my next list, the finalized pre-season list. Sanchez is a tick ahead of Hedges, but I think Arcia makes up even more of the difference between them by beating out Starling.
B: Bradley/Story. This is probably the hardest one I’ve done so far. Bradley and Goodwin are similar, as are Story and Hanson. I’m tabbing Bradley’s side because I think he’s very safe and a near-lock for being good, where as all the other three players have some question marks. This should be interesting though.
A: Rosenthal/Wong. I’m playing it safe here. If Rosenthal is solid (read: #3 starter) and Wong turns out to be a solid regular, I’m in the money. That’s success. Martinez could be a closer or a #2 starter, and that’s quite risky to me. Rosario has a ways to go. I like him better than Wong, but I don’t think that Rosario makes up the difference between the riskiness.
The point of this exercise is to see everyone’s biases. If you’re biased towards the elite upsides, then go with Baez/Soler. I’m looking to see how the community values players in general, but more than just a one versus one. I’m looking at how the community will approach trades, whether they are gonna target the higher upside or safer, or if they play positional scarcity as a large factor. So please leave your thoughts!!