Hunter Morris (1B, MIL) - Morris provides a good case of what a true power hitting first basemen looks like. He reminds me of much of the traditional types of players, who profiled exactly as their position said they would. In 2012, Morris ripped 28 homers and hit for a slash line of .303/.357/.563, good for a wRC+ of 155. That’s pretty damn good for a neutral Double-A league. It was his first truly great season overall, with 2011 owning a 106 wRC+ in High-A, not all too hot for a 1B prospect. If he sticks closer to his 2o12 than 2011, he could see serious time in 2013 at 1B, depending on the injury for Corey Hart. He could even break camp with the team. Defensively he’s limited to 1B and won’t do much else, but he’s live-able at that spot and you could do worse, I guess. If Morris’ bat can hit like 2012, he could be a viable NL-only or deep mixed league option. And since we’re talking deep leagues, he’s one to store as breakout potential. I wouldn’t be upset with a .280 line with 20-25 HR. But I would note that if I do own him, and he starts off super hot with the major league team, I’d flip him for some more proven assets, as good as you can find. But holding him has potential as well, as a long term UTIL slot guy in your league.

Lewis Brinson (OF, TEX) - Brinson is to tools what the sun is to yellow. He’s pretty much the superstar of tools in play. Raw power, raw speed, raw defense, raw hit tool, raw approach. All raw everything. Yes, that was a bad reference, but so be it. Brinson surprised a lot of people by displaying a little more polish in his game than some expected out of the 2012 supplemental round pick. I mean, the scouts were right when he struck out 28% of the time, but he did walk 8% of the time and had a decent approach at the plate. He stood out among the draftees for being so productive though. He swiped 14 bases while knocking 7 homers out of the park in Rookie Ball in 2012. Not bad for a HS Draftee. He also hit .283/.345/.523, good for a wRC+ of 122. He played good defense and came out ahead of what most expected of him. In the future, I think he fills out and is a corner outfielder. A free-swinging type of player who’s a power-speed monster, with high K rates. I could see a less powerful Curtis Granderson. Maybe an Austin Jackson? Either way, you’re going to have to bite the bullet on his K rate, but you might get a ton of production and see some 20-30 seasons, peaking at 25-35? That’d be a pretty awesome fantasy player to have.

J.R. Graham (SP, ATL) - Graham is a small college pitcher, drafted in the fourth round. Many have already determined that he’ll move to the bullpen because of his size (6’0, 185) but I’m not so sure. His results in 2012 show a pitcher who knows how to use his stuff and he could be a MLB starter in a few years. Graham threw 102.2 IP in High-A, and 45.1 more in Double-A in 2012. He recorded a FIP of 3.19 (3.19 in High-A, 3.18 in Double-A). He didn’t strike out a ton in High-A (6 per nine) but his K/BB was a great 4.00. When he moved up to Double-A, his K-rate increased (8.34/9IP) but as did his walk rate, leading to a 2.47 K/BB. Obviously he can be an asset in striking guys out, but that comes with the risk of missing the corner and walking a guy. Graham doesn’t have a clear shot in the future to an ATL pitching rotation spot, but he might fit in as a RP for a few turns until they have a slot for him (a la Arodys Vizcaino). I’m a believer in Graham as a #3/4 starter. He isn’t better than Teheran IMO, but he’s closer than people think.

Gary Brown (OF, SFG) - Brown really fell off the radar with his mediocre season in 2012. He didn’t do what he does best, swipe bases. Now, you may look at his line and wonder how he didn’t do that when he stole 33 bases last year. But for a guy who’s premier tool is speed, stealing 33 isn’t elite. Not even close. And worse than that, he got caught 18 times. So he stole bases at a rate of about 65%. It’s not the worst thing in the world, but that doesn’t help the team. I believe the sabermetric break-even point of stolen bases is about 72%, so anything less is really costing the team runs and wins. Brown hit absymally in 2012 as well, further deflating his stock. He dropped from his .336 average in High-A to his .279 average in AA. He hit half the homers, had less doubles, and his OPS dropped from .925 to .731. Look at this drop. He went from a wRC+ of 138 to a wRC+ of 104. Still slightly above average, but that includes the org depth guys. Needless to say, he has a huge tumble in 2012 and needs to bounce back in 2013 in order to maintain relevance.

These trades are purely hypothetical, and I am not seeking advice. I’m just interested to see if this intrigues anybody. Assume that each team has mediocre MLB hitting and pitching (average on both accounts) with decent minor league depth (no spot will be left barren). Pitchers and hitters are weighted equally in the league.

Trade Edition One

Trade Four:

A: Austin Hedges and Oswaldo Arcia

or

B: Gary Sanchez and Bubba Starling

Trade Five:

A: Alen Hanson and Brian Goodwin

or

B: Jackie Bradley and Trevor Story

Trade Six:

A: Trevor Rosenthal and Kolten Wong

or

B: Carlos Martinez and Eddie Rosario

These are three interesting trades. I tried to pick some higher upside players and some safer players to compare and mix and match for these deals. My personal opinion would be:

Trade Four:

A: Hedges/Arcia. I pick this side because I’m honestly that against Starling. He won’t be high on my next list, the finalized pre-season list. Sanchez is a tick ahead of Hedges, but I think Arcia makes up even more of the difference between them by beating out Starling.

Trade Five:

B: Bradley/Story. This is probably the hardest one I’ve done so far. Bradley and Goodwin are similar, as are Story and Hanson. I’m tabbing Bradley’s side because I think he’s very safe and a near-lock for being good, where as all the other three players have some question marks. This should be interesting though.

Trade Six:

A: Rosenthal/Wong. I’m playing it safe here. If Rosenthal is solid (read: #3 starter) and Wong turns out to be a solid regular, I’m in the money. That’s success. Martinez could be a closer or a #2 starter, and that’s quite risky to me. Rosario has a ways to go. I like him better than Wong, but I don’t think that Rosario makes up the difference between the riskiness.

The point of this exercise is to see everyone’s biases. If you’re biased towards the elite upsides, then go with Baez/Soler. I’m looking to see how the community values players in general, but more than just a one versus one. I’m looking at how the community will approach trades, whether they are gonna target the higher upside or safer, or if they play positional scarcity as a large factor. So please leave your thoughts!!

First Base isn’t usually a hot prospect area. You get guys like Rizzo, Freeman, and others who come up, but not nearly as many are in the low minors as there are SS and CF. And slowly they all migrate towards 1B as they age, or bulk up, and slow down.

In the future, there are choices such as Miguel Sano, Ryan Lavarnaway, and plenty more that will make the move as young 1B players and anchor the position. But for now, we’re stuck with Berkman, Carlos Lee, and Paul Konerko holding major league spots from the youngins. But, there is some hope.

Rank. Name (TEAM) (T100 Rnk) [ETA*] – Comment

*ETA is when I believe they will be able to get a full time job on their team in the majors, not their first PA. FT Jobs include platooning and playing half weeks.

FIRST BASEMEN

1. Jonathan Singleton (HOU) [2014] – Singleton is a prime example of what a first basemen should be. He has some pop in his bat, has a good average, is young for his leagues, and is athletic enough that the Astros have tried him in LF. He’s got future potential as well to grow in all those areas. He’s the clear cut #1 first basemen in the minors

2. Dan Vogelbach (CHC) [2016] – Vogelbach is an interesting case. Some give him support (like John Sickels grading him as a B) and others trash on him (Law continually). I personally like him and think he can square up a baseball and drive it. He’s a ways away, but I don’t think his body type is preventative of him becoming a great hitter down the road.

3. Matt Adams (STL) [2013] – Adams is definitely one of the forgotten about prospects. He hits the ball hard and has conquered Triple-A already. He just doesn’t have an opportunity on the major league club as of yet. The Cards are so deep that I can’t see them finding a good hole for him, and he may need to be traded to gain all of his value

4. Hunter Morris (MIL) [2013] – He broke through in Double-A, winning the MVP award and crushing the ball. He hit .303 with 28 HR. I don’t see him as this good of a hitter in the major leagues, but I could definitely see 25 HR with a .280 average, or somewhere around there. If you can reimagine Garrett Jones (PIT) in 2012 (27 HR, .274 BA, 20% K, 6.4% BB), that’s what I see Morris’ peak as.

5. CJ Cron (LAA) [2015] – Cron is a true threat at the plate. In High-A in 2012, he hit .293 with 27 HR (113 wRC+). I like him as a future slugger at the postion, but I don’t see a hole for him, which explains why I have him listed in 2015. There just isn’t a great spot to fit him into the roster for the next two years.

6. Darin Ruf (PHI) [2013] – Ruf is someone who just absolutely skyrocketed in the last two months when he went on a power tear. He hit 20 HR in August/September in the minors, leading most to fly him up on their lists. However, I don’t think that my previous perception of him has changed. I still see him as a player who will hit .275 with 25 HR in his peak, and lesser production otherwise.

7. Jesus Aguilar (CLE) [2014] – Aguilar has a special bat, one that could be found in Cleveland sooner than later. He’s got some pop and has put up some good numbers in 2012 and 2011 (wRC+ of 158 in Low-A, 104 and 127 in High-A, and 152 in AA). He’s hitting the ball hard and walks well. He could surprise and be a .270 hitter with 12-15 bombs and good OPB numbers

8. Matt Olson (OAK) [2016] - Sleeper. Olson has a good bat and is an advanced hitter from the 2012 draft. He’s got a strong bat and I think he can end up hitting for good averages and solid pop. Nothing elite from a first basemen, but I don’t think he’ll end up disappointing many. Hopefully his talent shows through here, I’m a fan.

9. Keon Barnum (CHW) [2016] – Barnum had likely the most raw power out of any prospect in the 2012 draft, according to some. He’s limited defensively, but his bat profiles to be above average with a lot of pop. Still a long ways to go, however, so I’m not counting on him to be high on the list until he’s more proven.

10. Ronald Guzman (TEX) [2015] – One of the typical Texas prospects. Raw, young, and athletic. He’s got a chance to be very good, and a chance to never see Triple-A. He’s got a good swing and I like him, but I don’t know how much of his “star potential” will shine through. I’m betting on him becoming a decent regular, but he’s got a long ways to go and a lot to prove.

11. Nick Delmonico (BAL) [2015] – Delmonico’s bat is solid and he could end up elsewhere on the diamond, but to date he’s only played 2B and 1B for the majority. He could end up hitting 15-20 HR in the majors with 5-10 swipes. That’s be above average for a 3B, but likely just a bit below average at 1B, with a lower average than most. Consider him as a 3B to be fantasy relevant.

12. Alex Dickerson (PIT) [2014] – Dickerson came out of college as an advanced hitter, and he’s proved to be up to that billing. In the pitching-friendly FSL, he hit .295 with 13 HR and 12 SB. I don’t think the SB will stick, but I think he should be a solid hitter in the majors, likely a second division starter. I could live with .280 with 12-15 HR yearly.

13. Nathan Freiman (HOU) [2013] – A Rule-5 Draftee for Houston from the Padres, Freiman has an inside track to a MLB job, which gives him a bit of an advantage over other prospects. He’s 6’8 and has some power, so we’re waiting to see what he can do with it. Lucky for him, Houston also has the DH rule now so he will be able to get more at bats aside Wallace and Carter.

14. Jose Osuna (PIT) [2015] – I don’t like Osuna as much as I like Dickerson, but he still can be a solid second-division regular with some talent. I don’t think that he’s elite by any means, but Osuna could be a role player, one with some pop (16 HR in 2012) and a .265 average. That’s workable.

15. Ricky Oropesa (SFG) [2014] – Ricky is a good hitter, one with decent pop (16 HR) and so-so averages (.263 in 2012). He doesn’t look like a future star or anything, but he could turn out to be a solid prospect who can hit off the bench.

16. William Beckwith (ATL) [2015] – Beckwith is an interesting case of power and speed. In 2012, Beckwith hit 15 HR and swiped 17 bases, odd for a 1B/DH player. He doesn’t profile great in his BB/K ratios, but his bat could be good enough to earn him a shot as a backup player in Atlanta. However, he will not overtake Freeman anytime soon.

17. Christian Walker (BAL) [2015] – Walker doesn’t have elite power of sorts, but he’s a polished hitter and one that could climb the ladder quickly. He could jump fast and be in the majors by 2014, because of his college background (South Carolina back-to-back championships) and his polished style. He is limited to 1B, however.

18. Kennys Vargas (MIN) [2015] – Sleeper. 118, 149, 132, 180. Those are Vargas’ wRC+ from 2009 to 2012. That’s pretty awesome. He’s old for his level, and is 22, but he’s got a chance to surprise. He should be in High-A in 2013, and might get the fast track to Minnesota by mid-2014 if he keeps mashing. One to watch.

19. Neftali Soto (CIN) [2014] – Soto is your big power hitter who could slug 25+ home runs a year and never break .245 in the majors. He gets the nod here on the list because of the power potential, but I’m not counting on him being anything more than a replacement level player. Plus, Votto will be blocking him for the forseeable future.

20. Jonathan Griffin (ARI) [2015] – He profiles as a CAL-League mirage, one of many. He hit .295 with 26 home runs in 2012 in High-A. He’s older (24 in April) and likely needs to perform in AA in 2013 to keep good prospect status, but he could end up a good backup or a low end regular if everything works out. That’s not a guarantee however.

HM. Chris Marrero (WAS) [2014] – Marrero debuted in 2011, but he tore his hamstring and hasn’t returned to the show since. He likely has 15 HR power with a solid average if he can recover, but 2012 didn’t show him able to hit the ball well in Triple-A. He’s a wait and see guy, without a major league hole to fill either.

HM. Joe Terdoslavich (ATL) [2014] – Funny name. Anyways, the Braves tried the High-A to AAA jump and failed as he struggled mightily in Triple-A. He bounced back in Double-A after mid-season, but I’m not buying him as a true major league slugger.

HM. Chris McGuiness (CLE) [2013] – Bounced around during his career, McGuiness has a chance to fill the Cleveland 1B hole long term if he can show up and play. That’s a question mark for sure, but he hit 23 HR in 2012 with a respectable .268 BA. It is possible that he could be a .265 hitter with 20 HR yearly, which should hold a spot in Cleveland. He could also be a quad-A player, which wouldn’t surprise me.

HM. Tommy Medica (SD) [2015] – After sustaining an injury to push him off of behind the plate, Medica hasn’t really settled back in. He crushed CAL league pitching muchlike Griffin, but I don’t believe that Medica will turn into much, because he does lack a surefire position that Griffin does. He might be able to hit, but he’s older (25 in April) and needs to move FAST in order to not be forgotten and passed over.

Overall, this position doesn’t look as bad as I thought it would. Remember though that when I talk about projecting a player, I’m talking typically a very good scenario for the player. Not the perfect, but a good one that keeps them on track into the majors. Most of these guys will be derailed or not get an opportunity to show what they’ve got.

This position is difficult to project because there are hundreds of MLB players who will need to move to 1B in their career because they don’t cut it. A lot of catchers and LF players will make the move to extend their careers. So I wouldn’t count on filling my 1B hole from prospects. But if you do want to approach it that way, there are a few options that seem intriguing throughout the list. Nothing spectacular, but also nothing that screams that you have to go out and buy Albert Pujols.

Not many of these guys will be worthwhile in shallower leagues to hold on to, aside from the top few. But if you have a ton of empty space on the back end of your roster, I’d pick up a Nate Freiman or Jesus Aguilar and see what they can do if they are given time. Heck, some of the HMs may turn out to be decent WW adds if something goes down.

I’m not putting a ton of stock into this position, and you shouldn’t either. But that doesn’t mean that there isn’t a good player or two just laying down as a sleeper waiting for the opportunity.

The sleepers of the list are Olson (OAK) and Vargas (SEA). Both have the potential to surprise. Olson could be similar to Vogelbach in a way, and find himself top-5 in a year. And Vargas could surprise from under the radar, becoming a hot pickup if he tears up the league for a week or a month sometime in the future.

CURRENT PROJECTS:

Project One: Top 25 Prospects for 2013

I haven’t begun this project, as it’s taken a back seat to Projects 2/3. I’ve drafted a list of this, and I’ll get it going soon enough, but I’m going to try and get the other projects moving first.

Project Two: Top 20 Prospects by Position

So for the positions we have:

C – POSTED

1B – Scheduled for March 7, 2013

2B – In Progress

3B – Pending

SS – Pending

Corner OF – Pending

CF – Pending

SP – Pending

RP – Pending

Hopefully this lasts us through the rest of the off-season, and I’ll see if I can squeeze things in on the side when possible. We’ll have to see, depends on my workload (so please everyone beg my teachers for less work!).

Project Three: Reader Profiles! – Scheduled for March 9, 2013

Hunter Morris – Complete

Lewis Brinson – Complete

JR Graham – In Progress

Gary Brown – In Progress

Project Four: Updated Top 100 Prospects

I’m going to try to make this my last off-season project, with an updated Top 100 prospects. I’m watching some spring games and that might tweak it some, and I’m definitely going to come equipped with new information concerning guys I probably should have had on before, now that I’ve gotten to read the insight of Law, Sickels, BA, BP, and others. Should be worthwhile to read!

Project Five: Would You Rather: Trades

I’ve found these amusing and fun to do, to sculpt out very close trades that are always fun to pick sides. They seemed to get a few responses to start, and I’m going to keep them up to see what people think. I’m going to try not to keep prospects in more than one, so that there is variance in every trade and not the same old players.

Trade Edition One – Posted

Trade Edition Two – Scheduled for March 6, 2012

Trade Edition Three – In Progress

Trade Edition Four – Pending

NOW: I want your suggestions. What do you want to read about? What do you need from this site to help you dominate your fantasy league? There’s a ton of stuff out there, and I know that you have specific stuff about your league that you like to hear that can help you. And I know that the community is more than happy to help as well. So comment away.

Please note that I do stay away from the international market. I don’t analyze the Japanese or Cuban or Latino markets because I don’t think it’s worthwhile versus spending more time on prospects who are stateside. When they prove they are worthy of attention (Puig, Soler), I’ll gladly give it to them. I also wait to do my draft research until April/May time. It’s like studying the NFL draft and mock drafting players before the NFL combine, when things change (guys fall from the 1st to the 3rd and guys climb from the 5th to the 2nd). So I likely won’t have much out about that until the MLB Draft starts nearing, and baseball season is well underway.

The list was posted on January 9th, but the date was edited to keep the list on the front page and towards the top, since the discussion is most centered on here.

 DEEP LEAGUES 2013 TOP 100 PROSPECTS

1. Jurickson Profar (SS, TEX) – Profar is as smooth as can be. He’s polished, he’s got talent, and he’s got all the skills to make his tools work. He’s got a good to great arm, he’s above average defensively, he’s got a sweet swing and drives the ball well for a guy his size, he can hit for power, and he’s got above average speed. Oh, by the way, the kid is 19. He’s ready for the majors right now, after being one of the youngest AA players. He is the safest bet in the minors with the least questions about him. He’s going to be at least an above average regular, because that’s what he is now. If he keeps developing, then we start to talk about All-Star caliber. And that’s the road he’s headed on. I played it safe at the top.

2. Oscar Taveras (CF, STL) – I swear I’m a huge OT fan. A massive one. I believed in him even when others said “his swing is too violent” and “he can’t hit a ball consistently like that”, I looked at the numbers and saw a 19 year old driving the ball and hitting over .310 in AA. And I can see some batting titles in his future for sure. And he couples all that with power in his swing. If he could play CF for the Cardinals, I’d lock him in at the top slot. But Profar has the defensive advantage and positions like SS are much weaker than OF. But if I’m gambling on one player from every prospect in the world to win a batting title, it’s him. And if I had to choose one player to become a star, it’s Taveras. But he’s not as safe and not as elite positionally as Profar, and that holds him to number two. Which, honestly, isn’t that big of an insult. Right Bryce?

3. Wil Myers (RF, TB) – Well it has been an eventful off season for Mr. Myers to say the least. He was the center of many rumors, and then gets packaged off to Tampa Bay for Shields. I’m frankly glad for him, because it means that he’ll be in a competent team’s regime and have one of the best GMs looking after him, rather than Dayton Moore. He’ll likely split the year between AAA and the majors, so expect little in 2013 but big things from 2014 and beyond. He looks like a star to me, and most. Don’t mind the questions about his ability that were asked during the trade. He’s just as good as before. And maybe he’ll play with a chip on his shoulder. Watch for 30+ HR.

4. Dylan Bundy (SP, BAL) – He’s the best pitching prospect in the minor leagues today. Heck, he could be a top 15 pitcher in all of baseball if he was up on Opening Day, he has that kind of talent. If he was a few inches taller, we’d be talking Strasburgian hype. Bundy deserves the big rep he gets, especially on that epic run in High-A this year. He’s a monster and the O’s need to turn him loose. It wouldn’t surprise me, with the O’s rotation, to see him there on Opening Day if they are serious about competing. Will he or Gausman come up first?

5. Xander Bogaerts (SS, BOS) – Bogaerts is one of the best pure hitters in the minors. And yes, I think he will stick at SS (Law noted that it was a 50/50 proposition now). An elite bat, he tore up Hi-A and AA to the tune of 20 HR and a .307/.373/.523 line, good for a .896 OPS. I think he’s going to be a star.

6. Gerrit Cole (SP, PIT) – Well being the 2nd best pitching prospect isn’t that bad when Dylan Bundy is ahead of you. Cole is phenomenal in his own right, and should end up a very good pitcher for the Pirates, likely a #2 with good potential to be a true ace. The Pirates are counting on him to come through as a TOR arm, and it looks like he will. He did seem human at the end of the year, but that doesn’t worry me. If he’s available for trade in a league, don’t worry about the cost. I’d deal a good amount of value to secure him. Because it’s a lot more expensive to pay for Justin Verlander now than it is to pay for a TOR future arm like Cole.

7. Shelby Miller (SP, STL) – Well, he’s back to being a stud. After a rough first half, he started to “trust his stuff” according to his catcher, and throw his fastball. And due to that, he’s back in the top 10. He should see at least 10-15 starts in STL this year, and can be a quick return on investment if you’re able to nab him for a solid MLB starter.

8. Jose Fernandez (SP, MIA) – Talk about a jump. Fernandez went from “wow this guy could be a good closer one day” to “Well, I think he’s a starter” to “Top of the rotation in 2014″. And it’s all deserved. From watching video, he’s dominant. I could easily see him destroying AA and getting the call in June, or at least a trial run in September. He looks like the real thing to me.

9. Mike Zunino (C, SEA) – Personally, I think he’s the best catching prospect in the minor leagues. He dominates in college. And then goes and has a 1.137 OPS in 44 minor league games (Low-A for 29, AA for 15) with 13 home runs. He’s got no defensive sticking questions, so he’s my top catcher and could be a top 3 fantasy catcher for years.

10. Taijuan Walker (SP, SEA) – Walker was one of the youngest pitchers in AA this year. His scouting reports were clean and good from the scouts, but the numbers said differently. He’s still regarded as a potential TOR arm, and I don’t think many if any have soured on him. He could be a fantasy ace in the future, albeit with some risk attached.

11. Trevor Bauer (SP, CLE) – What an off-season. He’s a top prospect, and then gets thrown away for DiDi Gregorius to Cleveland. Well I think Cleveland stole him, with naughty pictures of Kevin Towers in some tropical island handy. Because Bauer is just about ready to walk into the MLB rotation and prove that he’s going to be a very good pitcher for a long time.

12. Javier Baez (SS, CHC) – If he’s a shortstop and you’re a believer, push him up about 3-4 slots. If you firmly believe he’s a 3B, then knock him down 5 slots to slightly above Sano. But overall he does look like the real deal, with power and contact. If he keeps gaining plate discipline, he’ll be a stud for the Cubs.

13. Jameson Taillon (SP, PIT) – Taillon is a prospect that has always escaped me. I typically am more of a stat guy than a scouting report guy, and Taillon is like a weakness of mine because he’s a lot of reports and less about the numbers. But I’ve learned to embrace it. He looks like a TOR arm. And he could be up in 2014 if everything breaks right. I think late 2014 is reasonable. He’s less risky now that you know who he is, but I don’t think I’d give up any player above him for him.

14. Zack Wheeler (SP, NYM) – Mets fans are hoping that prospectors were right. Maybe Wheeler is better than Harvey. Because Harvey was disgustingly good in his MLB debut, and Wheeler is still in AAA. He’ll be up in June, and projects as a TOR arm. He looks to me like a #2 pitcher, and a good one. Some even think he could become a top 12 pitcher in the league.

15. Miguel Sano (3B, MIN) – Power is the name of the game. He’s got a huge bat and he does know how to use it. If he holds up his power throughout the minors and into the majors, he looks like he could be a top 25 fantasy hitter for a long time, assuming he sticks at 3B. He could be moved off if his defense is lacking, which would mean that he’s either headed to 1B, or he’s headed to DH. Both of those spell a move from the “elite power 3B” category to the “good 1B bat”.

16. Travis d’Arnaud (C, NYM) – He’s the main competitor among catchers for Zunino. Most will have him above, but he too comes with risk. I think he could end up hitting .300 with 15 home runs. But I’m less certain seeing that he’s been injured, and is returning. He might open up on the NYM opening day roster if he’s healthy.

17. Robert Stephenson (SP, CIN) – My favorite pitcher in the minors. I think he’s going to be a #2 starter, maybe even a #1 when it’s all said and done. He’s got a nasty fastball (sits around 95-96 late in starts, can run it up to 99). And he’s got a knee buckling curve. He’s 19 years old with two plus pitches. The changeup (as for most) will determine whether he ends up at the front of the rotation, or the back of the bullpen. I love his chances.

18. Tyler Skaggs (SP, ARI) – He’s kinda under the radar now. He’s been good for so long that he’s skipped over quite a bit. He still looks like a #2/3 and he’s nearly there. He should be in the majors in 2013, maybe even opening day. I think that if you pay slightly less than even value today by offering, say, Buxton or Olt, someone might jump. And I’d love the Skaggs return on that.

19. Christian Yelich (CF, MIA) – Yelich has a ton of projection about him. Many times we hear about pitchers having physical projection. But Yelich is a prime case of a hitter yet to fill out. He looks like he could be a monster. He hit .330 (!) with 12 homers and 20 SB in high-A as a teenager. And that was good for a whopping wRC+ of 164 (!!!!!!). He should be in Miami soon, perhaps 2014. And expect big things out of him, especially if he can stick in CF. The only thing holding him back is that he hasn’t attained his projection, yet.

20. Billy Hamilton (CF, CIN) – Damn, he’s fast. He’s proved he’s the best base stealer the minor leagues have ever seen. But he also is being moved to outfield, which will take some of his appeal away from him. He could be a dominant base stealer, but I want to see him make it in the majors before I proclaim him the ultimate fantasy steals monster. But he could be.

21. Jonathan Singleton (1B, HOU) – Singleton made a smooth transition to AA posting 20+ HR’s and a .400 OBP. Singleton should arrive in Houston sometime this season, but the ‘stros can be patient if needed. He’s the best 1B bat in the minors, and it’s not close. Unless someone like Sano or Gary Sanchez moves to 1B, Singleton is the prime candidate to lead that position. Still super young, he’s one to target that could see reps late in 2013 if the Astros season goes as planned (ha!).

22. Nick Castellanos (RF, DET) – His hit tool was off the charts in High-A ball this year. He dominated, flirting with .400 for the majority of the season. But things tanked when he went to AA, which is the big step in development. I think he rebounds. I’d target him if possible, but I wouldn’t be giving up someone above here to do it. Pay the value that he will bring to your team as a RF or LF player, not a 3B.

23. Carlos Correa (SS, HOU) – We will know more next season b/c debut season will provide more information re: his power potential and ability to stick at SS. For now, long-term prospect offering excellent potential. His value will be very dependent on whether he sticks at SS or he has to move to 3B. But he could be an asset either way.

24. Kevin Gausman (SP, BAL) – Kevin Gausman is the best pitching prospect from the 2012 draft, as of right now. His main competition might be Fried and potentially Zimmer and Giolito, but I think Gausman will end up a #2 starter behind Bundy in Baltimore. Not a bad combo. He should be on your fantasy radars already because he could come up in 2013. And he could make an impact for the Orioles and for your fantasy squad. He’s my #2 overall prospect in the 2012 draft, and I think he’s a good and safer bet than most.

25. Byron Buxton (CF, MIN) – Buxton is a toolsy athlete, to say the least. I think he’s got the capability to dominate and become Matt Kemp, with less power and more speed. He’ll stick in CF because of his speed and athleticism. The issue with him is that he’s raw. And that does concern me a little, considering other raw players like Donovan Tate and Bubba Starling have yet to develop into the 5 tool studs they were projected. But he was the 2nd overall and highest paid player in the draft for a reason, so I won’t pass judgment until we get a full year of ball under his belt. The upside is superstar. The downside is just as steep, like AA org filler. I personally don’t love him like others do, but he’s an upside prospect and if you need to take a risk for a superstar, he might be your guy.

26. Trevor Rosenthal (SP, STL) – Just to note, I think he remains a starter and begins the year in Memphis or St. Louis, either way, he and his nasty fastball are in the rotation. And I think that he can be a great #2/3 starter, especially on the Cardinals where he could end up their third best pitcher in the rotation (Waino, Miller).

27. Noah Syndergaard (SP, NYM) – He was a key piece in the deal to get Dickey. It was amusing to watch Toronto fans go from “we wouldn’t give up d’Arnaud for Dickey” to “I’d love to just give up d’Arnaud, just don’t take Syndergaard too!” to “Well, World Series Locked Down”. I think Noah is going to be a starter with a great fastball, but if all falters he’ll find himself somewhere in the 8th and 9th innings. He could be dominant at that too.

28. Archie Bradley (SP, ARI) – Bradley looked really good at times, with a great curve and a lively fastball. And others he really struggled with command. He’s got the upside of being a TOR arm, but he does carry the risk of never fully mastering his control and being sent to the ‘pen (but what young prospect doesn’t?). I like him, but I’ve got my concerns about his walk rate that push him away from his history in the top 20 prospects. He could regain it quickly in 2013.

29. Mike Olt (3B, TEX) – Do the Rangers have any idea of what to do anymore? They need outfielders, but are going to likely platoon Craig Gentry and Leonys Martin. But then they’re going to watch Olt and Profar just bide time in the minors. He’s ready, but I think he might get Brandon Belt syndrome if he’s on the MLB bench for a while. Be wary. I could see 25 HR a year, but I could also see 15 HR and a ton of rust every time he runs out there.

30. Danny Hultzen (SP, SEA) – I don’t think I’m that low, and most have questioned his 4.29 FIP in AAA and his control problems. He’s not a fireballer, so control issues make him look like a good #3 starter to me. He’s always been a high floor guy, and his stuff will play up in Petco, depending on the fences. He’ll be a reliable starter in the majors for years, but don’t expect fantasy dominance.

31. Addison Russell (SS, OAK) – I’m not super high on him here relative to most. Sickels gave him a B+ grade and I agree with that value. If he sticks at SS, where there’s a chance to do so, he could be a force with the bat and even more fantasy relevant than Correa. Most of the SS have questions, but I think that his bat will impress many people, so get on him if you haven’t.

32. Jorge Soler (CF, CHC) – Soler has all the potential in the world. He was given a huge contract out of Cuba, and so far he’s proven that he’s not a complete bust. We won’t know if he’s worth it until he’s played 3-4 MLB years, but right now it’s looking like a good value. He’s shot up prospect lists and is just as toolsy as most. If he develops as he should, which is risky, he’s got star player upside for the Cubbies. He might be in your off season draft. And if you believe that he’s worth every penny of his contract, I could see him landing 1st overall. But as with most Latin America players, tread lightly. 2013 will make everything much clearer.

33. Gary Sanchez (C, NYY) – He plays third fiddle in the catching world, but he plays first fiddle in the Yankees system. He’s a power hitting catcher, and could be a force behind the plate for the Yankees (assuming they don’t drop 10 years, $60M on Bengie Molina). But he should come up in 2014 and hopefully make an impact. I don’t doubt his ability right now, but there are some questions that arise to some about his ability to stick behind the plate long term. He might have to go level by level to stay at catcher.

34. Taylor Guerrieri (SP, TB) – Similar to Stephenson, he’s a young guy but I think he gets more press. I think he has more risk. He also has a heck of a lot more ahead of him than Stephenson. He had a fantastic 1.99 FIP in short season, but only rung up 7.8/9IP. Could be a #2 starter, and his development of secondaries will determine how big of a fantasy asset he will be.

35. Aaron Sanchez (SP, TOR) – Sanchez profiles as having the best combination of polish and upside from the Lansing Three (what could have been?). He has less upside than flame throwing Syndergaard, but he also has less polish than Nicolino. If I were looking for the best neutral value between the three, Sanchez is my guy. Look at a potential #2 starter (Top 30 fantasy pitcher).

36. Anthony Rendon (3B, WAS) – This is one I definitely need to say I’m low on. Where does he play? As many have described, he has “glass ankles”. I doubt that plays at 2B (and Keith Law agrees). Can he stay healthy enough for 3B? I can’t see .290 with 15 home runs being a dominant force at 1B, fantasy wise.

37. Max Fried (SP, SD) – Max Fried has likely the most potential of any arm in the draft. If he and all the arms in the draft hit their ceiling, he’d be the best. He’s got true #1 upside, but he’s still young and just out of high school. He’s a risky proposition, because he’s got to succeed all the way up from the bottom of the minor leagues, but he does seem like the guy to succeed. And Petco park will do him some favors. I see a lot of potential here.

38. Alen Hanson (SS, PIT) – One of the two best PIT breakouts of the year. He went from middling potential bench player to potential above average regular with some pop and some speed. His value decreases if he moves to 2B, but he’s still got enough of a bat to be relevant.

39. Carlos Martinez (SP, STL) – He looks like he’d be an ace in any other org, but he might end up a closer in STL. With Miller/Wacha/Rosenthal already on the potential starting path, I think one of CMart, Wacha, and Rosenthal end up as a closer. And unfortunately for Martinez, I think it’s him. If he were more of a starter in my mind, he’d but up in the mid to late 20s.

40. Francisco Lindor (SS, CLE) – He could be Jurickson Profar 2.0, or he could be a wealthy man’s Jose Iglesias. He’s going to stick at SS. But he hit for a .707 OPS, good for a wRC+ of 102. He doesn’t strike out, and he has a good eye. I’m skeptical he turns into a great bat at SS for fantasy purposes. I don’t see a lot of pop, and I see about 20 steals. So he’s a SS with an OPS of around .725 with 8 HR and 20 steals. Take it for what it’s worth.

41. George Springer (CF, HOU) – It was a solid debut from the 2011 first rounder (20 HRs and 28 SBs). Heading to AA, challenge will be trying to maintain similar numbers without increasing his 26.2% strikeout rate. The strikeout rate is a concern for him, and one to keep an eye on. Other guys have busted due to a high strikeout rate, so it could be cause for concern. I’d rather see 15 HR and a 21% K rate, personally. But fantasy wise, he should be a good 20/20 threat yearly if he progresses.

42. David Dahl (CF, COL) – He’s good. Really good. The athleticism is on par with Buxton, or so it’s said. He destroyed the ball for two months beyond what anybody could have imagined. I think that if he keeps it up, the doubt will be erased, but right now I’m still counting on that Buxton was the 2nd overall pick for a reason and Dahl was the 10th. But time can easily erase that.

43. Austin Hedges (C, SD) – Another catcher I’m high on, but a lot of people believe in him. He had a wRC+ of 119 in A ball last year. He’s one of the top defensive catchers in the minors. I’m a believer that he’s going to be a good hitter at the major league level, and could be a good consistent top 10 fantasy option at catcher, one you don’t have to worry about moving to a different position.

44. Jackie Bradley (CF, BOS) – Bradley offers a solid combination of speed, power, and plate discipline. Terrific defense in CF will not help in fantasy beyond keeping him on the field. One of the most undervalued prospects in the 2011 draft, but for now, appropriately valued near the end of the Top 50. He’s a really polished player and is a popular player to replace Ellsbury in due time.

45. Matt Barnes (SP, BOS) – A Connecticut Huskies product (yay!), Matt Barnes is the Red Sox top pitching prospect. At the beginning of the year, he was absolutely filthy and mowed over players in High-A. He hit a bump in AA, where most players do but I’m not all too concerned about him. He looked like a #2 starter during his High-A run, but I think he’s a safe bet to be a #3 starter with higher potential. I think it’d be a disappointment if he ended up a #4 or 5 starter with the path he’s on now.

46. Gregory Polanco (CF, PIT) – Probably the biggest breakout in the minors in 2012. He hit like crazy and gave statheads fantastic numbers while posting solid scouting reports. If he was more of a sure thing, he’s be right near Buxton in ranking. With a solid April to June, he’ll likely be a top 30 candidate.

47. Albert Almora (CF, CHC) – Almora is the other big time outfielder in CHC, and he could be just as good as Soler. It was rumored that the Cubs were absolutely in love with Almora. If the Cubbies had the first overall pick, they still might take him over anybody else in the draft. The truth to that rumor is in question, but Almora gets a big vote of confidence that the Cubs got their guy, because I think that they should be able to develop him into a player. He’s got five tools as well as Soler. He’s got the upside of a star, but likely ends up somewhere as a regular, in my opinion. But, the upside remains.

48. Kyle Crick (SP, SF) – As Tim mentioned in a comment, he’s also a believer in Crick. I see a future #2/3 starter, but safer than most. He’s got a good mix of pitches, and the Giants develop pitching. He had a 3.15 FIP in Low-A last year, and coupled with a dominant 10.4 K/9. He did walk a lot of players (5.42 BB/9) but he has the stuff to be a front line guy. I believe.

49. Jesse Biddle (SP, PHI) – He’s the top arm in Philly. Even though Philly keeps churning out back end starters like Worley, Cloyd, and likely Pettibone, I think Biddle has a chance to be a good #3, and peak as a #2 in some years. He’s got a lot of value like that. I’d aim for him as a guy that is under the radar.

50. Oswaldo Arcia (RF, MIN) – Arcia got some love from John Sickels this year. Sickels gave Arcia the nod over Buxton, which I found interesting. Personally, I can see it but I don’t agree. Arcia tore the cover off the ball to hit .309 in the pitcher heavy FSL. And then hit .328 in AA. He looks like he’s going to be a good hitter in Minny, but he doesn’t have the upside of Buxton. I might be low on him here, and if he keeps tearing up AA and AAA, he could be pushed to a top 40 spot.

51. Clayton Blackburn (SP, SF) – Another Giants starter here. I’m obsessed with the 2011 Oklahoma HS pitching class. He struck out nearly 10 and walked less than 2 per nine innings in 2012. His FIP of 1.91 was incredible, and he’s known as a more polished “pitchablility” player than Crick. Not the upside that Crick possesses, but he could end up a #3 starter, and has a good chance of at least being a workhorse #4 that won’t hurt your fantasy squad.

52. Jedd Gyorko (3B, SD) – I feel bad for Jedd. He hits and that’s really all he does. But, the minor league parks and Petco hold him back. Hitting in the PCL is like playing at a Little League stadium, so much of his AAA time has to be taken with a grain of salt. And double the pain because he jumps to one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors, at Petco. I think he’s a 3B in the majors, but Headley might have something to say about that. Could he play 2B? How about RF or LF? I think he’s got a relatively good shot of being a ML regular

53. Casey Kelly (SP, SD) – Kelly struggled in his MLB debut, that’s for sure. A 6.21 ERA isn’t predictive of his talents though. When he was in Boston, he was supposed to be a #2 starter. When he got to San Diego, he didn’t turn it on fast enough and most wrote him off as another workhorse 3/4 type of guy. But I still believe in his stuff and I think that he does still have that upside of a two starter, especially in Petco. One plus is that he’s MLB ready, so he gives you a quick turnaround. He’s someone who might have lost some hype due to his results, but I like him still just as much as before (Remember that Anthony Rizzo guy struggling?).

54. Justin Nicolino (SP, MIA) – He’s quite under appreciated around these parts of fantasy prospecting. People look at him, see polish and a lefty without much projection and assume he’s gonna be a mid-rotation guy. He could end up better than Noah or Sanchez, the ex-Lansing Three. He’s a good target to look at for consistent production down the road. He’s a good bet to be a #3 starter, with some years as a #2. Very similar to Biddle’s upside.

55. Nick Franklin (SS, SEA) – Franklin is a guy I keep my eye on. I own him in a league and I think he can be a successful MLB 2B. If he moves to 2B, his bat will be average to slightly above average. If he’s able to stick at SS, he can likely be a good bat and fantasy relevant every year. He’s a switch hitter and he’s still developing and very young, so I actually wouldn’t mind seeing a full year of AAA for Nick before I hand him over to the Mariners.

56. James Paxton (SP, SEA) – Paxton had a great year in 2012. He more than held his own in AA and looks like a good future #2 starter, maybe a #3. I think he ends up a #3 starter with the occasional great year that reminds you of all his talent. His stuff will play up in Safeco, and boy does he have stuff. A hard fastball from the left side and a great breaking ball cap off a strong arsenal. I’d buy if you can, because of the combination that he could be in the majors soon (Seattle has little pitching depth) as well as his home park (ask Tommy Milone how much home parks are factors). He’s a buy now guy, and I could see him higher on my list if he starts hot.

57. Bubba Starling (CF, KC) – He struck out a lot. Like 30.2% of the time lot. Yes, that’s a real number. He’s incredibly raw and was about as likely to play football in college as turn pro in baseball. He’s got the power and physical potential to be Matt Kemp, but his skills just aren’t there. He could be a long time in the minors waiting on that potential to shine through. I’d look elsewhere and wouldn’t mind taking a safer bet on a prospect like Springer or JBJ if I could.

58. Chris Archer (SP, TB) – Surprisingly people don’t talk about him more. He is ready for the majors right now, and has nothing left to prove. The Shields trade left a gaping hole for him to step into. He’s likely to pick up 20+ starts in Tampa (I think so), and he could be a good #3 starter in the long run. What’s not to like?

59. Yasiel Puig (RF, LAD) – Puig is an interesting candidate for this list. On one hand, you have the $42M bonus. And then you have the physical freak that he is. But, you also see some holes in the swing and a lot of raw talent. If he develops, he could be a star player. If he doesn’t, then he is exactly what he is. I took a chance on drafting him with the 5th overall pick in DLF, so I’m a believer that he will progress and continue. But he’s a big boom/bust risk.

60. Michael Wacha (SP, STL) – Wacha is a nice surprise from the 2012 class for the Cardinals. They thought he’d have an impact, but he immediately came in and beat up AA for short stints. Not entirely predictive of future success, but obviously much better than not being good. And the scouting reports were the biggest plus, they came back saying that Wacha was better than what he was in college, namely in the secondary pitches. He likely becomes a mid-rotation starter for the Cardinals, one of many. I think he does end up in the rotation, with Martinez in the back of the ‘pen. But, it could work the other way too. Keep your ears and eyes open, folks.

61. Mason Williams (CF, NYY) – He’s going to stick in center field because he’s got plus defense. Williams is a good speed and potential power candidate (needs developing) here for the Yankees to replace Granderson. He’s got better tools than the Yankee below, but he’s a little less polished. I’m excited to see how good he is in Pinstripes; he’ll be fantasy relevant year in and year out

62. Tyler Austin (RF, NYY) – He could end up better than Williams. And I’m very torn between the two. I see Austin having potentially more power and hitting the ball better, but I don’t think he stays at 3B. I think he ends up in RF. That’ll knock his bat down to closer to average for the league. It’s a tough call, but because I think Williams will stay in center I’m giving him the nod.

63. Julio Teheran (SP, ATL) – He’s the opposite of Odorizzi. He could be a future ACE, and regain his spot right next to Shelby towards the top. Or he could become middle relief fodder, or a back end starter, or both (a swingman). 2013 is a massive year for him. He’s probably going to be the most intriguing guy to watch. I see the potential still for a #2, but way too much risk to lay him anywhere near someone like Skaggs.

64. Chris Stratton (SP, SF) – Stratton is one of the safer picks in the 2012 draft. He’s a college draftee, but he also doesn’t lack upside. Sickels has denoted him as one of his favorites. He looks like he’s going to be in San Fran in 2014 at the latest, and could possibly be as good as a #2. I actually prefer him over Zimmer, because I think that he has a much higher floor and nearly as good of a ceiling. He should be an asset in SF, and they do know how to develop really good pitching there.

65. Jake Odorizzi (SP, TB) – He is what he is. He’s going to be a #3/4 starter and a workhorse. Out go the potential #2 starter comps, people have come to realize (including me). He might be starting the year in TB, too. But there are many others who profile as a #3/4 starter, like Jon Pettibone. But Odorizzi just gets more press, because he’s a little safer and is a sure thing right now (just about) to not get much better or worse. This feels about right.

66. Alex Meyer (SP, MIN) – The big tall Kentucky product fit the mold of a Washington Nationals draft pick. Big upside, and big downside. He could become a #2 or a decent AA relief pitcher. He seems more on track for the earlier option. I think he ends up a mid-rotation starter, and will be fantasy relevant. Someone to definitely keep an eye on, especially because the Twins are starving for starters. He should see the majors in 2014.

67. Kyle Zimmer (SP, KC) – I’m low on Zimmer, and I know that. And I accept that, and I embrace that. He’s risky, really really risky in my eyes. He’s super raw for a college player, only pitching for a few years. And on top of that, he’s injured right into pro ball. On the plus side, he can develop his pitches and take care of his natural ability and become a #2 starter, like the Royals saw with the 5th overall pick. Or, on the other hand, he could break down and be an injury risk his whole life. I personally don’t believe in him, but if you do then I’d be thinking his talent belongs in the 50s somewhere.

68. Delino DeShields Jr (CF, HOU) – 2012 was a terrific bounce-back season for 2010 first rounder. Obviously, 84 steals is impressive. But also clearly improved in important areas (BB rate rose by 4%), but worth noting BABIP jumped by over 100 points. Minor League BABIPs are deceiving at times, because BABIP does reward solid contact and a player that improves vastly can have a huge BABIP. But he’s one to keep an eye on, he could be a more well-rounded Billy Hamilton type of player. Ceiling of Michael Bourn.

69. Eddie Rosario (2B, MIN) – Miguel Sano’s second fiddle has some good upside here. He has some speed and can play both outfield and 2B. If he’s able to stick up the middle (2B or CF) he’ll have good value with the bat. Still young and a ways off though, he’s got time to improve.

70. Lucas Giolito (SP, WAS) – He’s the biggest question mark of the list. If you promised me that he’d be 100% healthy and returning to his previous potential, he’d be a top 25 prospect, likely slotting in around Correa and Buxton. But the huge risk associated with him and TJ surgery gives most prospectors including myself, pause. If he does successfully get through TJ surgery, he still has to go through the minors from HS player to major leaguer. Not an easy task. He’s a guy who could literally jump 20 spots on a good report.

71. Cody Buckel (SP, TEX) – Seriously, genetics? Add about 10 spots on this list for every extra inch Buckel doesn’t have. If he was 3 inches taller, I’d have no issue with him in the top 45 prospects. He’s got the results; he’s just got to prove wrong the doubters. And the hardest part is that sometimes the strongest doubters are the ones in the organization controlling when and where he pitches. Stigmas do that to players, unfortunately.

72. Kolten Wong (2B, STL) – Kolten defines what it means to be a solid baseball player all around. He’s going to be a 2B, as he’s been through college and there’s no questions about him sticking there. He doesn’t project as a star and doesn’t have the huge upside of the flashier prospects, but he isn’t labeled “scrappy”, so it’s not like they are justifying a crappy short white guy playing baseball. Wong looks like he’ll be a solid option for the Cardinals and your fantasy roster. He’s a guy who I’d wait to target until after he debuts. Prospect hounds all have him around here, but when he comes up he won’t have flashy stats. And that’s when to pounce, because most will be thinking bust and you’ll be thinking a solid option for years. He’s a good post hype sleeper candidate, and I’m calling it before the hype strikes.

73. Wilmer Flores (3B, NYM) – Where does he play? That’s the question everyone is asking. He’s got the bat for his position at 3B, but that’s clogged. Nobody thinks that he’s agile enough to hold down a corner outfield spot or 2B, at least not anywhere near average. If he’s relegated to 1B, that’ll be a big hit on his bat.

74. Brian Goodwin (CF, WAS) – He reminds me exactly of Jackie Bradley. Both are polished and talented and have good all-around tools. I don’t think either turns into a star, but both can be above average players in the league for a long time. Nobody complains about .280 and 15/15, right?

75. Martin Perez (SP, TEX) – This one I should probably explain. Much like Teheran still has the ability to rebound and regain his prospect status, being so young, so does Perez. Both pitched in AAA with some polish and talent, and then fell apart. I never thought he’d be as good as Teheran, but I think he could still end up as a #3, and if everything rights the ship perfectly, a #2 starter. He’s got the stuff, he’s just gotta put it all together. But I’m being risk adverse here and listing him lower. He’s got top 45 talent.

76. Trevor Story (SS, COL) – Story rocked 2012. He hit for a wRC+ in A ball of 135. He’s got power and some speed, and he’s a shortstop. Hitting .270 with 18 HR and 15 steals is impressive. But there are questions that hold him back. First off, his K% is high, and secondly his home park is very hitter-favorable. On top of that, his defense is questionable and likely will have to move. He could move anywhere on the diamond. 3B would be great but Arenado is still around. 2B could work, maybe RF or LF. So his defensive home will determine his fantasy value, but he could have peak years of .275 with 20+ HR and 10+ steals. There’s nothing wrong with that. But he’s still young and in low-A, so don’t get too giddy. I’m interested to see the AA step when he takes it.

77. Michael Fulmer (SP, NYM) – I think I mentioned how much I loved the 2011 Okla Prep class with Blackburn, but it bears repeating. Fulmer could be a top 50 prospect by my 2014 list. He’s part of the Mets’ deep stockpile of young starters, and I think he will shine through. I have him here because I firmly believe in him.

78. Jose Berrios (SP, MIN) – He’s one of my favorite prospects from the 2012 MLB Draft. I think he’s got more upside than most give him credit for and I think he’ll be a fast mover throughout the minors. I could see him up in 2015, which is pretty darn good for a HS arm. He should end up as a mid-rotation starter, which most around this area seem to liken to. But he’s got something that makes me really like him.

79. Corey Seager (3B, LAD) – Seager slots in as the second best Dodgers bat in the system, and he’s got a chance to be a good one. He’s looking as if he’s going to be a wealthy man’s Kyle Seager, his older brother on the Mariners. He looks like he can stick at 3B (I don’t think he’s a SS) and potentially have a good enough bat to be on fantasy radars. I don’t know much about him, but I wish I knew more back when my draft happened. He’s one to keep an eye on.

80. Avisail Garcia (RF, DET) – Well he may not be an Xander Bogaerts, but he sure did hold his own in the minors this year. Showing speed and power, he’s got some upside in Detroit. I think he starts in AAA again, but is immediately up with any injuries.

81. Joe Ross (SP, SD) – He had a rough year in 2012. It started out looking like he could make a big leap, but he ended up just faltering and being injured. I think 2013 is his breakout year. I could see him landing a top 50 spot in 2014. He’s that talented.

82. Stryker Trahan (C, ARI) – He’s an athlete in the field. He’s a catcher now, but questions about whether he will stick or not lead to discussion of other positions. I’ve heard outfield and third base. If he sticks at catcher, which doesn’t seem that likely, he should be a valuable chip. But I’m banking on him ending up elsewhere on the diamond. And I’m hoping that his bat will still carry him. And by the way, if you somehow have lived under a rock for the last seven months, please Google “Stryker Trahan Collision” and enjoy.

83. Adam Eaton (CF, ARI) – He probably could start opening day in the Arizona outfield if it wasn’t so packed. I do see him having some potential though, so he’s worth a flier in the draft for a quick turnaround if Upton or Kubel do get dealt. In the long run, he does look like an average regular in Arizona, with the bat playing up.

84. Dan Vogelbach (1B, CHC) – Keith Law is notoriously low on him, while others see quite a bit of upside here. He’s a masher, through and through. Suggesting that he could play LF is crazy. But I think he can handle 1B in the NL, and likely will be a DH when it’s all set and done. He’s gonna be a trade chip (I see you Rizzo), but who’s to say that he can’t square up a ball well and .285 with 30 HR in a season? That’s valuable from any spot.

85. Dan Straily (SP, OAK) – I don’t necessarily think this is low, but many might. He’s a future #3 starter, maybe a #4 if he drops a little. His pitches went from “average” to “plus” once the results started coming, so I’m skeptical. He’ll pitch well in OAK and pitch mediocre elsewhere. He looks like a good pitcher to have, maybe a top 50 fantasy starter but nothing elite like some would hope.

86. Matt Adams (1B, STL) – He’s what I was referring to with Kolten Wong. Adams is kinda forgotten by the prospect world now that he’s already made his debut, but he still is prospect eligible. He’s going to mash the ball for STL in the near future, or another team. He’s torn up Memphis already. He’s still got the bat to hit .280+ in the majors with 20+ home runs. He could end up your run of the mill average fantasy first baseman, and you might be able to nab that at a discount now.

87. Allen Webster (SP, BOS) – Webster was acquired from the Dodgers in the Nick Punto-Ivan DeJesus trade. He struggled some in 2011 and dropped his stock, but he came back with a good 2012 and looks to be back on track. He could end up a mid rotation guy for the Sox. It’ll be interesting to see how he fits in with Owens and Barnes on prospect lists.

88. Matt Davidson (3B, ARI) – Matt Davidson, a former sandwich round pick, looks like he could be destined to impress this year. A 3B, questions do remain about his final position (3B or 1B?). His bat is likely average at 1B, but as a 3B he can be very good. He finished 2012 with a full year of AA, so Triple-A is ahead. He’s going to be a mediocre average guy, but he has some pop in his bat, and might slug 20 homers a year. That’s good enough for a flier in the middle of my draft, or perhaps dealing a high risk player for him to play it safe.

89. Josh Bell (RF, PIT) – A massive question mark. He was supposed to be very polished for a high schooler, but ended up pretty darn raw and didn’t come to play. Injuries have slowed him down. Interested to see if he gets back on track in 2013.

90. Aaron Hicks (CF, MIN) – He could be in Minny in 2013 Opening Day. He’s an intriguing player if you’re looking for a Span-clone. I like him. He usually does start slow, so be warned. But in the long run, he looks like he could develop into a regular in Minnesota.

91. Nolan Arenado (3B, COL) – I don’t like him. Not one bit. But I’ve been pressured by my superiors, and editors, to include him. I’ve always been down, but Bradley does make a great point saying “Terrific combination of power and contact (strikeout rates below 10%). One of the few prospects who–if more power is needed–can afford to make adjustments resulting in increased strikeouts that will increase his power numbers.”

92. Joey Gallo (3B, TEX) – He’s a masher. And he packs a huge punch with the bat. Most are sold, but he’s still only in rookie ball and has lots of maturing to do. He’s got some holes in his swing. I think he could be very valuable if he keeps his performance up, but I will be a little hesitant until he hits AA.

93. Roberto Osuna (SP, TOR) – He’s polished, and broke out in 2012 to be pretty darn good. I think he and Victor Sanchez have a lot of similarities, and I’ll be comparing them a lot (good size, little projection, early results). He’s still young, but could move fast because of his already polished ability.

94. Max Kepler (CF, MIN) – A European player (Germany) who’s an athletic player. Incredibly raw, but many see a huge upside. His athleticism is on par with Buxton and Polanco. He’s good enough for a back end spot now and maybe a top 50 spot in 2014.

95. Daniel Corcino (SP, CIN) – I wonder about Corcino at times. He looks really good some times, and then goes back to looking mediocre. He struck out nearly 8 per 9 IP, but also walked about four. So it’s not easy to say he’s gonna be a starter down the road. I do believe he has a shot at being a middle of the rotation starter, and I think he will hold his own, but that’s what the back end of the list is for. He’s one that you can think about targeting if you believe in his ability to stick. I do think the Reds FO likes him as a SP.

96. Luis Heredia (SP, PIT) – Luis was young before it was cool to be young. Heredia was sixteen years old, and stood 6’6 and held his own in short season ball for the Pirates. He’s lost some of his luster, as most youngsters do, because they go from being “the youngest guy holding his own” to “young guy doing above average”, which is a tough jump for prospectors to swallow. I think he ends up fantasy relevant eventually, but he’s so far off that he may only become a RP. He’s not one of the guys I’m targeting unless I know my championship window is 2018 and beyond.

97. C.J. Cron (1B, LAA) – Power and pop in his bat go a long way. The issue is he doesn’t have a home. He’d be a first basemen, but it’s blocked by a decade of Pujols. He’s going to be a trade chip. His value depends on whether he’s a 1B or a DH.

98. Jarred Cosart (SP, HOU) – Cosart posted respectable numbers during his first season in Houston, but a pitcher with his velocity, the strikeout rate was lower than expected. Cosart has been working on his secondary pitches, and while he should reach Houston in 2013, it’s possible he will begin his MLB career as a reliever. With the state of the Astros system, he likely will get a long look in the majors in 2013 to see if he has figured everything out.

99. Yordano Ventura (SP, KC) – Plain and simple, he looks like a future closer to me. He’s shorter and has two good pitches, but doesn’t possess enough of a third to start consistently. Being a closer isn’t the worst thing in the world, but it comes with such fluctuation that I can’t trust anybody who already is one (a la Brian Wilson going from dominant to released, Heath Bell, etc.).

100. Brad Miller (SS, SEA) – A popular “sleeper” labeled by most, Miller did hit well. Many are continually comparing Miller to Nick Franklin, the other Mariners SS. Miller has questions if he will stick at SS or have to move off (likely to 2B), but for now he’s a SS. The reason he’s nearly 50 spots lower than Franklin is partly age (he’s a year and a half older) and level (he’s a level lower). I think he could still jump up more on the prospect list, but I don’t see him in Franklin territory…yet.

Honorable Mentions: Jonathan Schoop (2B, BAL), Courtney Hawkins (CF, CHW), A.J. Cole (SP, OAK), Richie Shaffer (3B, TB), Leonys Martin (CF, TEX), Slade Heathcott (CF, NYY), Michael Choice (CF, OAK), Victor Sanchez (SP, SEA), Lewis Brinson (RF, TEX), Brandon Nimmo (CF, NYM), Zach Lee (SP, LAD), Nick Tropeano (SP, HOU), Lance McCullers (SP, HOU), Marcus Stroman (SP, TOR), Kyle Gibson (SP, MIN), Henry Owens (SP, BOS), Rymer Liriano (RF, SD), Marcell Ozuna (RF, MIA), Wily Peralta (SP, MIL), Tony Cingrani (SP, CIN), Jake Marisnick (CF, MIA)

This list is 100 names long. And that’s all it can be. So if you feel like I slighted someone from making the list, remember that someone else has to come off the list to make room. These are my best inferences of who deserves the spots, based on hours of research and reading, and talking to fellow fantasy players on their perspectives. Many of the numbers that I use are ones that I’ve come up with after studying similar players and minor league stats. In no way do I want to sound like the players that are on this list will all become major league and fantasy contributors, not even that they will all make the major leagues. I do think that they each have a chance, or else they wouldn’t be on the list. But things to happen, and I’m guessing that at least 50% of this list will never touch a fantasy team in regular-ville. I trust that you all are knowledgeable and understand the game we play is a game of risk v. reward. My list is my best opinion of the balance of the two, with some personal bias on players of course based on some things I’ve read that make them extraordinarily good in my mind, or some things I’ve picked up when watching video. I hope you enjoy the list, and I hope it does spark some discussion between player values and future value. You are the only one who knows your team, and you know it best. So as much as an ordered list can do, you have to make decisions. If this list were based on ceiling, or floor, or color of hair, it’d all look very different. So yes, it’s okay and I support your decision of taking Zack Wheeler over Taijuan Walker if it fits your team’s needs. The rankings become insignificant if you learn to cluster and look around, because every player brings something different to the table. Also note:

Remember, I always will have a personal vendetta against your favorite team, so don’t take it personally, I just never liked any of your team’s best prospects. On that note, thank you for reading and thanks to my assistants for their help, and I hope it serves you well! Best of luck in 2013!

Drop any questions you have and I’ll be happy to answer them, thank you for reading (if you actually made it this far, bless you!).

On top of the position movements, catchers are terrible to try and follow through their careers. They play 140 games a year, or thereabouts, and they don’t follow typical career trajectories. Just ask Yadier Molina, who was a supreme defensive catcher with an average bat up until a few years ago when he exploded around age 28. And of course you have to learn the rotation. A good defensive catcher still has to get to know his pitchers and his opponents well. That’s why Ryan Hanigan is the starting catcher for the Reds, while Devin Mesoraco splits time with him, even after being a legit Top 10 prospect only a few years ago.

Oh, and don’t forget the idea that every team needs an aging catcher who can’t hit, because they are always the best “game managers” and “clubhouse guys” that every championship team requires. Thank god for Jeff Mathis and Henry Blanco. Yes, catchers suck.

CATCHERS

Rank. Name (TEAM) (T100 Rnk) [ETA*] – Comment

*ETA is when I believe they will be able to get a full time job on their team in the majors, not their first PA. FT Jobs include platooning and playing half weeks.

1. Mike Zunino (SEA) (9) [2013] – Elite backstop, best in the minors (IMO). Should stick at the position and have a good bat there, could be a shallow mixed league option in the future.

2. Travis d’Arnaud (NYM) (16) [2013] - Another guy who’s going to be a solid hitting catcher, he should hit .290 or better in the majors with decent homers. If he avoids the injury bug, he could impress those who picked him up after the Roy Halladay deal.

3. Gary Sanchez (NYY) (33) [2013] - Another catcher with a good bat, he’s consistently compared to NYY former backstop Jesus Montero. Although I don’t think he’ll be as good with the stick, he still could be a force and potentially end up a top 25 prospect next season. If he blows up, look for top 15.

4. Austin Hedges (SD) (43) [2014] – Best defensive catcher in the majors. He doesn’t project to be anything more than average with the bat (.270, 14 HR) but the safety that he brings for sticking behind the plate is a huge plus to his fantasy value.

5. Stryker Trahan (ARI) (82) [2016] - Trahan is athletic, but also may have to move to third or a corner outfield spot because he isn’t refined. Plus, that will speed up his ascent to ‘Zona, rather than taking an extra year or two to learn how to catch. Could have an above average bat behind the plate.

6. Jorge Alfaro (TEX) [2015] - Alfaro is toolsy and super young, but also has a huge K-rate. Risky is the name of the game here, but he could pay off big. The Rangers are still searching for a catcher, and Alfaro could be the answer in 2014/2015.

7. Clint Coulter (MIL) [2016] - Coulter is likely to move elsewhere on the diamond, but for now he’s a catcher with some pop. If he sticks behind the plate, his bat is on par with Trahan. Not elite, but he gets docked because I think the other outcomes are less favorable than Trahan’s future positional options.

8. Blake Swihart (BOS) [2015] - Swihart is young and athletic, and is what most people are looking at for the future backstop in Boston. But he’s got a good amount of potential, but is also unrefined behind the plate.

9. Wyatt Mathisen (PIT) [2016] - Sleeper. Mathisen is a draftee who hit well and has some projection on him. Pittsburgh doesn’t have much behind the plate as of now after the tumble of Tony Sanchez, and Mathisen could be the answer. But he’s a ways off. His bat could put him higher next year for sure (top 6).

10. Tommy Joseph (PHI) [2014] - Joseph would have been in the middle of the above tier about a year plus ago, but he’s fallen back down after the trade. He’s still a fine player and could be the catcher of the future in Philly (him or another guy).

11. Cameron Gallagher (KC) [2016] - Sleeper. Cameron was described as being a good catcher with a great ceiling, and even received a few comps that his absolute ceiling could end up being somewhere around Mesoraco, which is highly unlikely but still gives a good picture of how good he can be.

12. Rob Brantley (MIA) [2013] - Brantley is MLB ready and likely will be splitting time with “game manager” Jeff Mathis in Miami. He’s got some pop, but probably won’t wind up anywhere around a top tier catcher. He’s good if you need to fill a hole, but I don’t see a lot of upside here.

13. Christian Bethancourt (ATL) [2015] - Bethancourt is the elite arm of the group. On the mound, he can touch 100 mph. That’s how good his arm is. However, he also hits like a pitcher. People have been waiting for his tools to turn the corner, but they haven’t yet. He could always become an elite defensive catcher that every team needs, but the bat will tell where he ends up.

14. Will Swanner (COL) [2015] - Swanner is likely not a catcher. He’s the mortal enemy of Bethancourt. Pretty bad behind the plate, but his bat is great. If he can hit outside of Ashville (the CAL League isn’t exactly a challenge here, though), he could cement himself top 8 on this list. But more likely, he ends up in RF.

15. JT Realmuto (MIA) [2016] - Realmuto was a favorite of mine a year ago. He’s got decent speed and a little pop, and he hit well in Low-A in 2011. He struggled a little more in High-A, but he’s one that I’m keeping my eye on to supplant Brantley in Miami.

16. John Hicks (SEA) [2015] - He doesn’t have room in the majors to play, behind Zunino and Montero. But he has hit so far (wRC+ of 118 and 112) and he could be a trade chip for the future Mariners. He is a touch older than his leagues, but he could be a good surprise player in the future.

17. Carlos Perez (HOU) [2015] - Sleeper. Carlos Perez is a sleeper of sorts. His wRC+ in his career lines have been 138, 142, 94, and 120. He’s got below average power and speed, but his OBPs are solid and he looks like he can work his way into the Houston plans in the future.

18. David Freitas (WAS) [2014] - Freitas is quite a hitter. Dealt to Oakland in the Suzuki deal, Freitas doesn’t exactly have an opening on the roster. He’s blocked by Norris and Jaso, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be found hitting like crazy (149, 141, 121, 151 career wRC+). He should find a spot, and he seems to have a good enough bat to find a late round hole for your deep roster. 

19. Andrew Susac (SFG) [2015] - Susac is the remaining catcher for SFG, after Joseph was dealt. He hit .244 in High-A, for a slightly below average wRC+ of 96, but he was just out of college straight into High-A. He has time to improve.

20. AJ Jimenez (TOR) [2014] - Jimenez was injured in 2012, and only had 105 AB. He will never have great power, but he could have a starting job sooner or later if he progresses and hits for a high average while maintaining good catching ability. He could be the near future for the Jays.

HM. Sebastian Valle (PHI) [2014] -  Valle was more interesting a year ago to me. He strikes out way too much and walks way too little for my liking. He does have bounceback potential, though.

HM. Kellin Deglan (TEX) [2015] - After repeating the level in 2012 of Low-A, Deglan performed a little better and improved his power and CS%. I still don’t see him as a MLB regular though, but he could still improve.

HM. Santiago Nessy (TOR) [2016] - Nessy is a project for the Jays still. He hit for a 113 wRC+ in Rookie Ball in 2012, and should climb the ladder slowly. Hopefully something comes of him, but I’m not counting on him being a star or anything. But he’s the brightest of the young Blue Jays backstops.

HM. Kevin Plawecki (NYM) [2016] - He’s the definition of a “good hitter”. In short season ball, he walked more than he struck out (252 PA, 25 BB, 24 K), and he showed some talent. He’s probably a future backup, but someone that I wouldn’t mind holding onto in an OBP league, just in case.

HM. JR Murphy (NYY) [2013] - He’s not the best hitter, posting below average wRC+ in the last few years. But, he does have a line to an open job on the Yankees and could get some serious at bats in 2013. I don’t blame you if you snag him late in a draft and pray for him to get some reps. Better to have someone with some ABs than the best player on the bench, right?

Overall this is an interesting group of Catchers in the minors. At the top end, you have elite options like Zunino and d’Arnaud. As you work your way down the players don’t get a ton worse, they just have a lot more question marks. Bethancourt’s defense is on par with Hedges, but the bat and the consistency is what separates them. If Swanner sticks, he could be a top 15 option at catcher. But he’s doubtful.

The three sleepers are Gallagher, Mathisen, and Perez. All three could surprise, especially Perez who gets overlooked. He’s got an open lane to Catcher-ville and Houston won’t be scared to promote him to see how he does.

These trades are purely hypothetical, and I am not seeking advice. I’m just interested to see if this intrigues anybody. Assume that each team has mediocre MLB hitting and pitching (average on both accounts) with decent minor league depth (no spot will be left barren). Pitchers and hitters are weighted equally in the league.

Trade One:

A: Xander Bogaerts and George Springer

or

B: Javier Baez and Jorge Soler

Trade Two:

A: Jedd Gyorko and Albert Almora

or

B: Nick Franklin and Gregory Polanco

Trade Three:

A: Lucas Giolito and Nolan Arenado

or

B: Julio Teheran and Joey Gallo

These are three interesting trades. I tried to pick some higher upside players and some safer players to compare and mix and match for these deals. My personal opinion would be:

Trade One:

A: Bogaerts/Springer. I think Bogaerts is going to be dominant and Springer will be an above average player. I just have too many questions about Baez and Soler to  see both of them become stars. This is very even, but I give my nod to X-man and Springer.

Trade Two:

A: Gyorko/Almora. I think this one tore me a little bit. Over the past few months I’ve grown more fond of Gyorko and less fond of Franklin. Gyorko seems like he’s going to be an above average regular at the majors level and Almora has the tools and polish to negate Polanco.

Trade Three:

B: Teheran/Gallo. I’m gonna take the power and the closeness to the majors here. I believe in Teheran bouncing back more than I believe in a young pitcher, because Teheran has at least done it before. And I don’t like Arenado all too much, but Gallo at least intrigues me as a 3B version of Adam Dunn. Mark Reynolds 2.0?

The point of this exercise is to see everyone’s biases. If you’re biased towards the elite upsides, then go with Baez/Soler. I’m looking to see how the community values players in general, but more than just a one versus one. I’m looking at how the community will approach trades, whether they are gonna target the higher upside or safer, or if they play positional scarcity as a large factor. So please leave your thoughts!!

You may notice that some players are out of order relative to the Top 100. This is on purpose. I don’t just randomly mix it up. But the more I analyze the players and look over new lists and information (Sickels, Law, etc.) I get a better feel of the market value of players. So you’ll see some changes. And when I come out with my final draft of the 2013 prospect list sometime in March, you’ll see how things changed from my initial post.

I’ll update the schedule when I get a chance. As of right now, here’s the order and the schedule for the posts:

All Dates Subject to Change:

Catcher (20)

First Base (20)

Second Base (20)

Third Base (20)

Shortstop (20)

Corner Outfield (20-25?)

Center Field (20)

Starting Pitcher (35-40)

Relief Pitcher (20)

After I post my first list (Catchers) I’ll have an idea of how long it takes to write it and how much I can get posted in how short of time. Assembling the lists is semi-difficult, but acquiring the information to decide between two prospects like 7-8 times is the most time consuming part.

Hope you like the series! This will hopefully dig deeper into prospects so that you all may understand my valuations on a positional basis.

On the other hand, there are those who avoid closers. Many of these players play in leagues that incorporate holds in some fashion. Whether that be having holds as a separate category or combining Holds and Saves to make one big category, it’s another fantasy option. I prefer this format for fantasy, but that’s not what this discussion is all about. This is about whether or not you want to hone in on saves in prospects, such as elite RP prospects and draft them hoping they make an impact. Guys like Bruce Rondon, Mark Montgomery, or in the past Addison Reed. These guys who destroy the minors on their way to heading to become future closers. Let’s take a look at this methodically as to why I prefer to avoid these guys

Reason #1: Three Years Ago

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=mlbdk2k10rpranks

If a closer holds his job in the majors for three seasons, I think he’s a reasonably good option to be a long term guy. He doesn’t have to be a monster to be a consistent saves machine. So let’s take a look at ESPN’s RP Rankings from pre-2010, which gives us three seasons past (2010, 2011, 2012) to evaluate the list on.

1 Jonathan Broxton, LAD – Racked up 56 saves over the last three years, not that great for a guy who was the #1 closer going into 2010. Not elite. Probably gets a shot with CIN as closer in 2013.

2 Mariano Rivera, NYY – 77 Saves between 2010 and 2011 before getting injured. He was getting old, but give him a pass for the injury. An elite arm in the closer spot.

3 Joakim Soria, KC – 71 saves in 2010/2011 before getting injured in 2012. He then had his option declined and he’s in the Rangers bullpen now. LESSON LEARNED HERE – Things change really fast.

4 Jonathan Papelbon, BOS – Struggled some and then signed with PHI, where he’s still closing. Still a good RP commodity.

5 Francisco Rodriguez, NYM – Was elite and then fell off, recording 51 saves in 2010-2012. Now a setup guy.

6 Heath Bell, SD – Dominant in 2009 through 2011. Then struggled some in 2012 and lost his job for part of the year. Things change really fast. Went from elite closer to questionable option in less than a year.

7 Francisco Cordero, CIN – Pitched really well 2007 through 2011, and then became a setup guy in 2012 where he was expendable in a trade for JA Happ

8 Jose Valverde, DET – Was pretty solid, and then became shaky in 2012. And now they let him go after being solid for a few years.

9 Andrew Bailey, OAK – Went from dominant closer of the future to disabled list superhero. Traded to Boston for what was thought of as cheap (Reddick turned out to be a surprise). May not close in 2013 (up in the air).

10 Brian Wilson, SF – Dominated. Won a WS. And then got injured, replaced by Sergio Romo, and was now signed to a MINOR LEAGUE DEAL with a ST invite.

11 Trevor Hoffman, MIL – Was very good, fell off towards the end, and retired. Was a fantastic closer for a while.

12 Billy Wagner, ATL – Was a great closer for a long time. No complaints, retired.

13 Chad Qualls, ARI – Has been on 6 teams, with a 5.24 ERA and 12 saves from 2010 to 2012. Middle relief fodder.

14 Rafael Soriano, TB – Was great in TB, probably the Yankees successor until Robertson happened. Should land somewhere as a setup guy in 2013, and probably deserves to close still. Update: Soriano signed for 2y/$28M. He likely is the closer in Washington now, but that can change fast if Storen gets off hot and he starts cold.

15 Brian Fuentes, LAA – Saved 41 games with an ERA over 4 over the last three seasons.

So if we owned all of these pitchers in 2012 and were headed into 2013:

I’d be happy with: Rivera and Papelbon

I’d be nervous but still own (for saves purposes): Broxton and Bell Update: Add Soriano here

I’m undecided on: Bailey, Soriano and Soria

I’d release: Rodriguez, Cordero, Valverde, Qualls and Fuentes

Retired: Hoffman and Wagner

So in 2013 I’d own two good closers, I’d be hoping and praying for two more, I’d speculate on a few and I’d cut five. That’s out of thirteen. We’re talking about four of thirteen guys still owning closers jobs after three seasons.

Reason #2: Six Years Ago

http://insider.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/draftkit/story?page=flb07/draftkit/pitcherauctionvalues

So now we’ve established what closers were in 2010, but now let’s dig back a little further. If you think about it, you don’t draft a top 100 player hoping they last three years at their job. I know that if I draft someone in the first 3-4 rounds of my dynasty draft, I want them to last me five or six years at least. Hopefully they can produce until they are 30+ years old. If that happens, you’ve done a great job drafting. So now let’s see the guys from six years ago.

1. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels – Talked about him above

2. Joe Nathan, Twins – Closer for the Rangers now. Aside from one injury, has been fairly consistent. Props for anyone taking him 5+ years ago.

3. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays – No longer a closer, or pitching in the majors. Terrible 2007 and 2009 sandwiched a solid 2008. Retired young at 33.

4. Mariano Rivera, Yankees – Talked about above

5. Billy Wagner, Mets – Talked about above

6. Huston Street, Athletics – Was a young gun at this point (23 years old). Bounced around a bit but still closing. A successful youngster.

7. Trevor Hoffman, Padres – Talked about above

8. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox – Talked about above. Props for being good for six years.

9. J.J. Putz, Mariners – Closing in ARI, but a shaky job. Had only 20 saves from 2008 through 2010, so he did lose value for three years before beginning again. Volatile job.

10. Brad Lidge, Astros – Was very good before 2011, then he fell off, lost his job, and went to WAS where he pitched middle relief to Storen/Burnett/Clippard combo.

11. Chad Cordero, Nationals – No longer a closer, lost relevance within a few years and went from young sensation to middle RP to fodder.

12. Francisco Cordero, Brewers – Talked about above, but was relevant back here.

13. Takashi Saito, Dodgers – No longer an MLB closer, but is in LAD’s ‘pen. Has saved 3 games in the last four years.

14. Bobby Jenks, White Sox – No longer an MLB closer, sucked in 2011 and hasn’t pitched since July 2011.

15. Tom Gordon, Phillies – Retired, had a decent body of work but he tailed off into a regular RP at the end.

So again, let’s count them if we owned them in 2013.

Current closers: Nathan, Rivera, Street, Papelbon, and Putz

Still MLB pitchers: Rodriguez, Lidge, F. Cordero, and Saito

Retired/Done: Ryan, Wagner, Hoffman, C. Cordero, Jenks and Gordon

Five closers remain (Putz with an impasse), and four others are still MLB RP. Six have retired, but guys like Ryan, Cordero, and Jenks really went out because of lack of production, not because they were old. So if we lap them in with the guys who lost jobs, we’re looking at five of twelve who are still closers. Four if you discount Putz for being ineffective for three whole seasons. Right about where we expected.

Reason #3: The Fact of the Matter

Now, let’s seriously think about this activity. I took the TOP 15 closers from fantasy boards on ESPN. If we used all 30 there’d be some staggering numbers of turnover. But taking the top 15 at a position should be relatively consistent. Without going through this whole activity, I looked at MLB 1B players from 2010. Fourteen of the fifteen are still strongly fantasy relevant (meaning you can use them at their current position as a viable option in a 12 team league). Ten of the fifteen catchers are still options (with Posada retiring, make it 10/14). That’s a great rate rather than four to six closers.

Yes, closers have the most turnover of any position. The biggest issue is that they have some sort of pretend “skill” to be the last player pitching in the game. Even though in 2011 everyone loved Johnny Venters, he never closed. Kimbrel closed. But he had fantastic ratios and could have closed for 25 teams. Being a “closer” doesn’t mean that you’re the best pitcher on the team, it’s a title that gives you saves.

Reason #4: Minor League RP Are Even Worse

Okay, time to dig into some prospects. Why not use our own prospect lists, assembled by Bradley O’Neill, in late 2010 (for the 2011 season). This isn’t a shot at Bradley at all, it’s hard as hell to predict the most volatile players (prospects) at the most volatile position (closer).

http://www.deepleagues.com/2010/11/29/top-25-relief-pitcher-prospects/

1.  Aroldis Chapman—Reds – A dominant closer, he’s been lockdown. But he’s moving to the rotation now in 2013.

2.  Chris Sale—White Sox – Was a starter and destroyed the first half of 2012. Won’t move to closer unless arm falls off (so eh, maybe he’ll move to closer).

3.  Tanner Scheppers—Rangers – Likely a middle reliever at this point

4.  Kenley Jansen—Dodgers – Hard thrower has the closer tag now in LA.

5.  Craig Kimbrel—Braves – Best closer in the majors as of this minute

6.  Jordan Walden—Angels – Closer, but ineffective. Then replaced. Now a Middle Reliever in ATL. We can say he has closer potential still, but only for a non-Braves team.

7.  Jeremy Jeffress—Brewers – Now the 5th or 6th reliever on the Blue Jays. Likely will never move past middle RP.

8.  Brad Boxberger—Reds* – Could close down the road, but currently slots as a middle reliever in SD.

9.  Tim Collins—Royals – Middle reliever in KC now, maybe gets a shot to close down the road

10. Diego Moreno—Pirates – Who?

11.  Chad Bettis—Rockies* – Still in the minors, could make a good closer down the road but has work to do. Missed all of 2012 injured.

12.  Cameron Bedrosian—Angels* – Middle reliever. Likely won’t close.

13.  Chance Ruffin—Tigers – Still in the minors, likely a middle reliever or #5 starter.

14.  Dan Cortes—Mariners – Middle RP at best

15.  Junichi Tazawa—Red Sox* – Middle RP if lucky

16.  Josh Fields—Mariners – Middle RP at the very best

17.  Wilmer Font—Rangers* – Still could close down the road, but unlikelier by the day

18.  Wynn Pelzer—Orioles – Middle RP if lucky

19.  Dan Burawa—Yankees – Who?

20.  Scott Mathieson—Phillies – Middle RP if he’s lucky

21.  Justin Grimm—Rangers* – Could be a #3/4 starter, and could close in the future. Still possible

22.  Phillipe Aumont—Phillies – Remember when he was an essential piece to get Halladay? He’ll be a Middle RP in Philly. Maybe he gets a shot to close down the road

23.  Casey Weathers—Rockies – Who?

24.  Nick Carr—Mets – Who?

25.  Gregory Infante—White Sox – Who?

Current Closers: Chapman, Jansen, Kimbrel

Closer Potential: Walden, Boxberger, Collins, Bettis, Font, Grimm, Aumont

Middle RP: Scheppers, Jeffress, Collins, Bedrosian, Ruffin, Fields

Failed Players: 8 Players

Excluded (Starters): Sale

So essentially of the RP ranks, three of the 25 have been successful. Chapman might move to starter territory. Maybe one or two guys get a shot at closing from the other group.

The issue with RP prospects is that for the most part, the best of the failed SP become RP in the majors. They are SP throughout the minors. So if a RP fails, he doesn’t turn into something, he just fails to make the majors. At least a SP can fail back into RP land. For example, if Mike Montgomery fails, he’ll turn into a LHP Reliever, or a LOOGY, or something along those lines, and then he fails to nothing. If Jeffress fails, he fails to nothing already with no backup plan

And no, I’m not avoiding Sale. He was a great success story and when you drafted him as a RP you got everything you wanted from him as a SP. So he’s definitely a big success of the list. And who knows, he could find himself back in the bullpen if critics are right about his throwing motion.

So what we have here is a big mixture of good (Kimbrel, Chapman, Sale, Jepsen) and bad (Scheppers, Jeffress, Collins, Moreno) that didn’t pan out. And that’s what prospects are.

Reason #5: The Flip Side of Prospects

Well there’s a flip side to prospecting for sure. It’s that players spring up out of nowhere to become stars. Or, in this case, we get closers. In the field, you get guys like Robby Cano who pop up out of nowhere to become really good.

Jason Motte (STL): In 2009, Sickels graded him as a C+. He’s now the closer on the STL Cardinals

Other guys like John Axford, Sergio Romo, Tom Wilhelmsen, Jose Veras, Rafael Benthancourt all came out of nowhere to become closers, and there are many more.

Well if we look at the minor leaguers, we get the same idea. Guys like Carter Capps and Stephen Pryor dropped out of nowhere to become legit closer prospects in Seattle. Failed starters will become more options as well. And then guys will come out of nowhere (Hector Sanchez, CHW) to nab a few saves here and there. Guys pop up out of nowhere.

Reason #6: The Most Volatile of the Most Volatile

To conclude, closing prospects are far too up and down to get a good grasp on. Giving you the top 15 closers from three years ago, the guys who were the best at what they do, the vast majority of them failed. And looking back six years, the majority of them failed as well. So what can we deduce from this mess of players?

1. If you are going to buy a closer, look back 5 years and find the top closers. For the most part, anyone in the top 20 on both the list 5 years ago and this year are a good bet to have a job and hold onto it, especially if it’s the same team. Outside of that, investing in closers is very limited, and likely you should wait unless you get a chance at Kimbrel or Chapman or Mariano or someone of that caliber. And even they are not invincible (Bell and Wilson come to mind).

2. Prospects as closers are near impossible to project. You have guys who come out of nowhere. Hell, Carter Capps was a catcher before he became a closing prospect. The guys who project as relievers from the start have nowhere to fall back on. Starters will take their jobs, and most relievers come from minor league starters. Guys like Wade Davis, Robbie Ross, and Sean Marshall are guys who were starters who’ve gone to relief over the past few years. They take up spots. And then with the ever changing bullpen management, you have a specialist LOOGY who takes up a slot. There are just less slots for good pitching relievers in the league from the minors.

3. Infield and outfield prospects can still hold a valuable job if they fail to become regulars. If a SS flunks out, like Chris noted Hak-Ju Lee, then we’re talking about a prospect who probably ends up as a defensive sub with bad numbers. If Hak-Ju flames out, he becomes Jose Iglesias with speed. And that’s actually valuable to an MLB team. He’ll be on a roster and be a defensive replacement. Look at Brett Jackson as another example. He could strike out a lot, and he likely will. I think he’s a fourth outfielder. But as a fourth outfielder, he can run and hit for power, and play some defense. That has fantasy value in deeper leagues, and Jackson would get a year+ to start in somewhere like Houston.

I hope that I’ve been informative about WHY I don’t like to trust RP in general, namely minor league ones. They are the most volatile of any prospects, as if prospects weren’t risky enough. There’s a real chance that Rondon walks in and fails in the closer job and watches it get snached up by Octavio Dotel. And who knows, Dotel could hold it for another three years. There are so many outcomes for pitchers, and relievers just have theirs limited more than any other position. I hope this was a good read and I hope you can see why I take my stance on relievers. It’s not that I don’t think minor league RP have value. I just wouldn’t touch them anywhere inside my top 150 prospects. Outside of that, it’s a crapshoot anyways, so you can shoot for a high minors reliever with a lane to walk in and close. But just remember that you’re playing with fire. Don’t burn yourself.

Here’s the thing: I’m only going to post on guys who I haven’t mentioned in previous 2013 posts. Yes, that means that I won’t be counting any players who are listed under the “Missed Players” article for the Top 100, nor will I have any of the Top 20 First Year prospects on the list. I’ve already talked about them and mentioned them. If you have a question about any name, feel free to ask it in the comments. Here I’m touching on guys who I think can make an impact above their current rank or common value. They are my “sleepers” for 2013 and beyond.

I’m going to start by doing five writeups per article, and see how many players I can post on. I think there will likely be FOUR parts to this series, but we’ll see what other material I come up with. Currently, I have 20 guys who I think I can write about, or at least try to, so we’ll see how that goes. The blurbs won’t be super long, but they’ll be enough to get the gist of why I like the player. I have 11 “FAR” guys and 9 “CLOSE” guys, so I’m aiming for a pretty even split. Also, evenly divided 10 pitchers and hitters, so you’ll get 2 or 3 of each in each section. Well, enough rambling, let’s go!

HITTERS (level is highest level with 50+ AB)

Jorge Bonifacio (OF, KC, Low-A) - Bonifacio played in Low-A in 2012, and very much held his own. He’s one of the more toolsy players in the minor leagues, and could potentially be a power bat in the future for the Royals. Bonifacio hit for a good 116 wRC+ in 2012, hitting .282 with a .768 OPS. He slammed 10 home runs and swiped 6 bases. He’s got the potential to be a 15/5 guy in the majors with solid RF defense and hitting somewhere around .270-.280. He’s still very young (19 years old) so he’s well ahead of schedule for a prospect. I can see him ending up going level by level every year, and sliding towards the back end of lists as evaluators see a 21 year old hitting in AA/AAA and driving the ball well. He’s still got a ways to go in regards to his potential, so these next two years will be the biggest for him. I could see him in KC in 2015 sometime.

Carlos Sanchez (2B, CHW , AA) - Carlos Sanchez is really the only beacon of hope for the White Sox franchise in the infield from the upper minors. And they really could use him, or they are stuck signing Jeff Keppinger and clones to play the infield. And with Gordan Beckham being a disappointment, Carlos might get a long look in 2013. Sanchez played in High-A for most of the season, tore up AA for  133 PA (.370/.424/.462) and was promoted to Triple-A for the last few weeks of the year. Sanchez brings a potent bat to the table, and can play 2B for the White Sox and doesn’t look like he’ll need to move positions. He also has played some SS, and I think he can play there in a pinch. Sanchez swiped 26 bases in 2012, and he could perennially steal 20ish in the majors yearly. The biggest problem with Sanchez is his lack of power. In three seasons in the minors, he’s hit three home runs. Yes, one per year. So I wouldn’t count on any more than, say, two homers yearly from him. But for a guy who strikes out below average rates and hit .323 in 2012, it’s not an empty spot in the lineup. If he could turn some of his 25 doubles or 7 triples into HR, I’d love to invest in a .300 hitter with 3/20 yearly. Imagine a Ben Revere with half the steals but 2B eligibility. Not elite, but he won’t hurt you in a deep league, especially ones with batting average as a category (not as much OBP).

PITCHERS (level is highest level with 15+ IP)

Sean Gilmartin (LHP, ATL, AAA) - Gilmartin is an intriguing mix of stuff and numbers, coming from a polished college arm who has advanced quickly through the minors. Drafted 28th overall in the 2011 draft, Gilmartin managed to begin 2012 in AA and then got a late season promotion to AAA. He wasn’t bad in 2012, posting a 3.84 ERA (3.83 FIP). Gilmartin is a pitcher who doesn’t bring the heat (upper 80s/low 90s fastball), but his changeup can be a plus pitch and his slider has the chance to be above average. Gilmartin struck out only 6.4 batters per nine frames, but walked only 2.2. He will never be a star, but he’s got a chance to be a backend pitcher. Comparing his 2012 numbers to the 2012 MLB pitcher numbers, he profiles similar to Wandy Rodriguez and Joe Saunders. If he could become Joe Saunders, I’d be happy with that result. He may be the first to get a callup in 2013, depending on whether Julio Teheran or his evil twin shows up in April. So keep him in on your late round radars.

Hiram Burgos (RHP, MIL, AAA) - Hiram Burgos will rarely ever be found on a Top 100 list, or anywhere near it. But he really made a name for himself in 2012, jumping three levels (A+, AA, AAA) and pitching very well at each of them. Across his 28 starts, he recorded a 1.95 ERA, and a 2.95 FIP. His numbers got worse as he went up the ladder, but not excessively worse (his highest ERA was AAA at 2.91). He struck out 8.1 and walked 2.6 per nine. A lot of his ability comes with his deception. His fastball is upper-80s to lower 90s, so it’s not a weapon of sorts. But he gets by on his average to slightly above average secondaries and good control. His separation between offspeed and fastball creates the illusion of a faster pitch. Burgos is one of my sleepers because I can forsee him making a Michael Fiers or Tommy Milone type of season. He’s not going to get much better in the minors, and I think that he’s a guy that will end up a #4/5 starter for the BrewCrew. But he’s a sleeper of mine for the 2013 season as a player who could come in and contribute meaningful innings to your fantasy team without a big investment (late round pick or WW gem). If he doesn’t work as a starter, he’ll likely end up a swingman type of pitcher.

CJ Edwards (RHP, TEX, A-) - Edwards is somewhat of a legend. A 48th round pick, he came out firing. Edwards is super lanky (I hesitate to call everyone who is tall and thin “projectable”) but he added some speed to his fastball and was throwing mid 90s, after being in the upper 80s his high school career. Since he was drafted (in 2011) they did away with the rounds past 40 in 2012. So we may not see anyone else like him. CJ Edwards pitched in Rookie Ball and Short Season Ball (Arizona and Northwest Leagues) in 2012, and compiled a 1.47 ERA of 67 IP. Edwards struck out 11.4 and walked 3.4 every nine, good for a 3.4 K/BB. I like that number, it speaks to his ability to strike guys out without excessive walk problems (like many strikeout kings have in the low minors). I like him to be a sleeper in many leagues. He’ll take a while to get there, and he could potentially open up in Low-A, knowing how the Rangers like to push their prospects. So that probably sets him on track to debut in 2015-2016 time frame, depending on how smoothly he goes. Heck, Jose Fernandez was supposed to be up in 2015, but he could force his way to a June 2013 callup after dominating. So nothing is out of the question, but if he dominates he’ll be up in 2015, but more likely 2016. And any injuries may even push it to 2017. I would only advise you to take a risk on him if he is flat out dominant (Top 100 prospect worthy) or if you have enough depth in minor leaguers to hold onto a young guy for 2-3 years to find out what you have in him.