This is a new thing that I want to start to add to Deep Leagues, is something that I hope will add a little more up to date action to the site. I plan on posting it every other week, in an attempt to give new developments time to happen, as well as not try to cram everything into one post. By the title, you can see it’s called the “Sleepers of the Week” and I’m going to do my best to cover any trending players that I see that are flying a little under the radar. Players don’t have to be far out and away sleepers. As you’ll see by those listed below, they range from fringe players who have restarted their careers to players that everyone knows, that might just be entirely underrated.
Remember to keep in mind that prospects are very volatile and that they change on a week to week basis. They slump, they heat up, and everything in between. So many times the sleeper prospect lists will be influenced by recent performance and that may not carry over to the rest of the season, so keeping track closely of these guys throughout and using recent trends will help a ton when it comes to seeing how they are growing and developing.

I am going to try to give you three prospect reports every other week, from three different tiers. The first will be the well-known prospect, a sure-fire top 100 prospect who’s putting up fantastic numbers but still not flying up boards as much as they should. These players develop from MLB regulars to stars, and the key is identifying them early enough to jump on them at a good value before the really explode. Secondly, there will be a prospect that is a fringe 100 prospect or lower, down to about a top 200 prospect. This guy will usually be one that will be discussed as a solid prospect or a high upside guy, but who hasn’t put everything together yet. This range for the most part is where you’ll really win your leagues, as many guys who have the tools and put them together come from this range and land in the top 40 prospects. The final tier will be a guy who’s not on anyone’s lists, who’s been putting up fantastic numbers. Guys like this usually don’t turn out to be superstars but they go from Platoon Players or Org Depth players to MLB regulars, which holds a lot of value in itself. Obviously every week I cannot promise that there will be exactly one of each, but I’ll do my best to dig up the best gems for you guys to jump all over!

Tier 1
Player: Oscar Taveras
Position, Team: OF, STL
B/T: L/L
HT/WT: 6’2, 180
Age: 19 (6/19/1992)
Level: AA

You should recognize the name, as Oscar Taveras is a top 50 prospect on nearly all lists. Last season he made a name for himself, hitting .386 in 347 PA in A ball. Taveras knocked out 8 home runs, and hit for a ridiculous 1.029 OPS. Since then, Taveras has been absolutely mashing for the AA Springfield Cardinals above and beyond what anyone expected him to do. Obviously the .386 BA was nearly unsustainable, but he came back this year and already he’s been hitting .328, which is a stunning average for a player who is playing 4 years below the average age of the league. But the average isn’t what has impressed me most. In 144 PA in AA in 2012, as compared to the 347 in A ball, Taveras has slugged even more home runs. Yes, in a much more advanced level and many many less plate appearances, he’s exceeded his home run total.

Here’s a guy that is currently a top 40 prospect on most lists and seems to be expensive, but if you believe in him like I do, he’s going to be a bargain right now. His ceiling is ridiculous, and I have him in my 2013 top 10 overall players, listed at number nine. Give him a full season of AA ball for word to get out, and you might be paying double for him what you will today.

Tier 2
Player: Matt Barnes
Position, Team: RHP, BOS
B/T: R/R
HT/WT: 6’2, 205
Age: 21 (6/17/1990)
Level: A+

Matt Barnes was drafted out of the University of Connecticut with the 19th overall pick of the 2011 MLB Draft. Regarded as a “polished” pitcher compared to most, Barnes proved such in the SAL league, A ball. In five quick starts and 26.2 short innings of work, he earned a promotion. That might be a rather small sample to be promoted off of, but when your ERA is 0.34 (FIP of 0.61) and you have a K rate of 14.18/9IP (42 Ks in 26.2 IP), you’ve earned a promotion. If you think he stopped pitching when he got to start in Hi-A ball, you’re quite wrong. He followed up his gaudy numbers with a 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 12 K, 1BB line. For a guy who’s supposed to be “just” the 19th overall pick, he’s pitching like a top 10 draftee.

Barnes is a guy who came into the season around the 85th overall prospect ranking, give or take a dozen spots. The consensus rankings handed him the now-laughable 94th overall prospect spot. When prospect list re-do’s start coming out, Barnes is a good bet to be a top 60 prospect, like I’m nearly certain he would be if I drew up a list today. Get him while the others read the 2011 scouting reports, and you grab a future #2 starter with very good stuff and outstanding numbers.

Tier 3
Player: Evan Gattis
Position, Team: C/OF, ATL
B/T: R/R
HT/WT: 6’4, 230
Age: 25 (8/18/1986)
Level: AA

Please raise your hand if you saw this coming, I need you to pick out my next lottery numbers. Evan Gattis, a man who left baseball for personal reasons when he was a promising youngster, returned with five years of rust in 2010 to show us what we had been missing. That rust didn’t last long. In 2011, Gattis showed his true colors, where in A ball (SAL), Gattis tore apart opposing pitchers to the tune of .322 BA and 22 homers. However he was playing well above his age group (nearly 3 years above the league average), so many wrote it off as the idea of that he just beat them because he was older. What many failed to take into account was experience. Gattis had only had 222 career ABs coming into 2011, where many “older” prospects were ones who could not graduate and were stuck there or they were stuck at lower levels, racking up experience against lesser pitching. Gattis on the other hand had the same experience that pretty much the entire league did, he was just more mature. That may have partially contributed to it, but he confirmed his rebirth of prospect status this season. In 21 Hi-A games this year, he hit .385 with 9 home runs. His ISO was .436, which is off the charts. After quickly getting the promotion about a week ago to the much more competitive AA (which many experts call the biggest jump in the minors), Gattis has responded with 4 home runs in 44 at bats, and a batting average of .318 against the opposition.

Gattis is a truly great story of a man who reconquered his life and took advantage of his opportunities. Many are calling for a Josh Hamilton type player from him, but I don’t see it because Hamilton was the best prospect in baseball by far when he went out, Gattis just a promising youngster. However Gattis still has the opportunity to rack up some big numbers in the majors. He projects as a major league DH who can catch a game or two a week (similar body type to Jesus Montero), and he looks like he could be a potential .280/25/100 threat from that spot. It’s worthwhile to note that he’s been practicing LF in the minors, and catching while Christian Benthancourt has been out, so he’s been working each spot. He should either be on the Waiver Wire in your league or a cheap piece in a deal, but if he remains hot he could be a diamond in the rough. That stat line is one of a very good hitter. Keep an eye on him.

FIRST EDITION BONUS PROSPECT
Tier 2
Player: Aaron Sanchez
Position, Team: RHP, TOR
B/T: R/R
HT/WT: 6’4, 190
Age: 21 (6/17/1990)
Level: A

Aaron Sanchez has been busy this spring proving he’s deserving of a top 100 prospect ranking. Many publications left him off in general, and at times he was even considered the “fourth” of the Blue Jays young arms (Syndergaard, Norris, Nicolino, Sanchez). But Sanchez has reasserted himself as the top dog, convincingly throwing 23 innings of 0.78 ERA ball, having a WHIP of less than 1 (8 H, 12 BB), and ringing up 28. That’s a very nice line for a top prospect, let alone one who got lost in the deep Blue Jays system. He’ll pretty much be attached at the hip with Syndergaard and Nicolino development wise as they seem to all be on the same path, but that’s not half bad of a group to be included with.

Aaron Sanchez was vastly underrated in many drafts and prospect lists, and didn’t even receive a single top 100 vote in the Consensus Rankings, but he’s proven me to be a believer. If I made my list today, he’s a lock for my top 100, and probably lands in the mid 70s to mid 80s, albeit higher than the trio that he previously looked up to. Watch out for Sanchez, he’s got nasty stuff and when it’s all set and done he could be a #2 starter on the team or some tasty trade bait. On a side note: 2015 TOR Rotation without trades? Romero-Syndergaard-Norris-Sanchez-Nicolino. You tell me where Drabek, Hutchinson, Cardona, Musgrove, DeScalfani, Wojciechowski, Osuna, Jenkins, Cecil, Alvarez, Morrow and Comer fit. That TOR system is about to churn out some pitching prospects like crazy in the next 3 years. Keep two eyes on this system.

Hopefully you learned something that you didn’t know before you read this, all data is updated through May 13, 2012. These prospects and others that will be covered in the coming editions are likely to show up on many peoples radar screens, so hopefully you can snatch them up while they are still below the surface.

Good luck!

The rankings are completely unedited, and very largely based upon personal opinion, that way we get any range of votes and you see how the opinions vary. For example, Christian Yelich was ranked between 32 and 40 for every single voter, so his ranking is pretty consistent across the board. On the other hand, Billy Hamilton ranged from 33 to 67 on people’s rankings, showing his inconsistencies and relating to his boom-bust type talent.

The rankings are a combination, so no one person can say “this is why this happened” as it is a collective effort. On the other hand though, it’s been really interesting to hear people add tidbits to players and show why they leaned that way.. We think that having all this information will allow you to make more informed decisions, so long as you make sure you do your research and study up on players. The goal of this was to give you as much information as we possibly could, and allow you to pick and choose what you like and didn’t like.

In the post we give you average ranking position (average of the 12 rankings), Best (Highest Ranking), and Worst (Lowest Ranking) to give you the best picture of the range of the player’s talents. This should help people see how the rankings really ranged.

Feel free to express your concerns, likes, dislikes, and any such critiques or applauses about the list that you have. I know myself, Andy, and the majority of the rankers will be available for comment and to talk about the list.

Thank you and enjoy,

The Rankers

Rank. Name – POS, Team – (Avg) [Best,Worst]

1. Bryce Harper – OF, WAS – (1.67) [1,3]
2. Mike Trout – OF, LAA – (2.25) [1,3]
3. Matt Moore – SP, TB – (2.42) [1,4]
4. Jurickson Profar – SS, TEX – (4.58) [3,6]
5. Shelby Miller – SP, STL – (6.58) [4,9]
6. Jesus Montero – C/DH, SEA - (6.67) [4,14]
7. Manny Machado – SS, BAL – (7.33) [2,11]
8. Julio Teheran – SP, ATL – (7.42) [4,16]
9. Gerrit Cole – SP, PIT - (9.83) [8,12]
10. Dylan Bundy – SP, BAL – (9.92) [7,14]
11. Trevor Bauer – SP, ARI – (10.33) [8,15]
12. Jameson Taillon – SP, PIT – (13.08) [10,15]
13. Devin Mesoraco –  C, CIN – (13.92) [11,17]
14. Anthony Rendon – 2B/3B, WAS – (14.50) [11,20]
15. Nolan Arenado – 3B, COL – (16.75) [11,25]
16. Travis d’Arnaud –  C, TOR – (17.92) [12,25]
17. Tyler Skaggs – SP, ARI – (18.25) [10,23]
18. Taijuan Walker – SP, SEA – (19.58) [14,28]
19. Bubba Starling – OF, KC - (19.67) [12,24]
20. Jacob Turner – SP, DET – (20.00) [15,23]
21. Drew Pomeranz – SP, COL – (20.08) [13,32]
22. Archie Bradley – SP, ARI – (20.50) [5,27]
23. Wil Myers – OF, KC – (20.92) [18,24]
24. Miguel Sano – 3B, MIN – (22.67) [10,31]
25. Danny Hultzen – SP, SEA - (22.67) [16,28]
26. Carlos Martinez – SP, STL – (25.83) [22,29]
27. Francisco Lindor – SS, CLE - (28.17) [18,32]
28. Xander Bogaerts – SS, BOS – (29.75) [26,39]
29. Jake Marisnick – OF, TOR – (30.08) [26,40]
30. Jarrod Parker – SP, OAK – (30.08) [25,33]
31. Zack Wheeler – SP, NYM – (30.92) [22,37]
32. Gary Brown – OF, SFG – (33.08) [26,43]
33. James Paxton – SP, SEA – (34.42) [26,58]
34. Martin Perez – SP, TEX – (35.33) [30,47]
35. Christian Yelich – OF, MIA – (36.92) [32,40]
36. Oscar Taveras – OF, STL - (37.83) [27,64]
37. Manny Banuelos – SP, NYY – (40.00) [22,60]
38. Randall Delgado – SP, ATL – (41.75) [31,52]
39. Josh Bell – OF, PIT – (42.33) [32,72]
40. Matt Harvey – SP, NYM – (43.00) [36,54]
41. George Springer – OF, HOU – (43.00) [34,62]
42. Yonder Alonso – 1B, SD – (43.17) [29,86]
43. Brett Jackson – OF, CHC – (44.08) [35,65]
44. Billy Hamilton – 2B/SS, CIN – (45.58) [33,67]
45. Yasmani Grandal – C, SD – (48.58) [39,60]
46. Jean Segura – 2B/SS, LAA – (48.83) [41,67]
47. Anthony Rizzo – 1B, CHC – (48.92) [38,85]
48. Arodys Vizcaino – SP, ATL – (51.25) [34,94]
49. Jake Odorizzi – SP, KC – (51.75) [41,59]
50. Gary Sanchez – C, NYY – (52.08) [37,70]
51. Javier Baez – SS, CHC – (52.25) [43,69]
52. A.J. Cole – SP, OAK – (52.58) [44,65]
53. Noah Syndergaard – SP, TOR – (54.42) [42,80]
54. Rymer Liriano – OF, SD – (55.00) [49,73]
55. Kolten Wong – 2B, STL – (57.08) [46,71]
56. Anthony Gose – OF, TOR - (57.50) [51,69]
57. Jonathan Singleton – 1B, HOU – (58.67) [40,78]
58. Brad Peacock – SP, OAK – (59.42) [48,76]
59. Hak-Ju Lee – SS, TB – (59.67) [33,71]
60. Jared Cosart – SP, HOU – (59.75) [51,72]
61. Robbie Erlin – SP, SD – (60.00) [47,73]
62. Michael Choice – OF, OAK – (60.17) [38,73]
63. Zach Lee SP, LAD – (62.92) [38,75]
64. Cheslor Cuthbert – 3B, KC – (63.33) [54,77]
65. Nick Castellanos – 3B, DET - (64.83) [45,89]
66. Trevor May – SP, PHI – (64.83) [48,78]
67. Nick Franklin – SS, SEA – (65.17) [38,80]
68. Starling Marte – OF, PIT - (66.33) [55,81]
69. Daniel Norris – SP, TOR – (67.00) [55,83]
70. Leonys Martin – OF, TEX – (67.08) [41,92]
71. Will Middlebrooks – 3B, BOS – (69.08) [46,88]
72. Tyrell Jenkins – SP, STL – (71.67) [58,89]
73. Sonny Gray – SP, OAK – (73.58) [55,79]
74. Cory Spangenberg – 3B, SD – (74.33) [64,96]
75. Ryan Lavarnaway – C, BOS – (74.67) [58,99]
76. Mike Olt – 3B, TEX – (75.67) [67,84]
77. Tim Wheeler – OF, COL – (78.67) [67,98]
78. Casey Kelly-  SP, SD – (80.08) [65,100]
79. Zack Cox – 3B, STL – (80.75) [43,UR]
80. Joe Wieland – SP, SD – (82.25) [59,UR]
81. Mike Montgomery – SP, KC – (82.67) [56,UR]
82. Eddie Rosario – 2B/3B, MIN – (83.50) [67,99]
83. Dellin Betances – SP, NYY – (87.83) [73,UR]
84. Drew Hutchison – SP, TOR – (88.92) [43,UR]
85. Taylor Guerrieri – SP, TB - (89.75) [79,UR]
86. Addison Reed – RP, CWS - (90.00) [66,UR]
87. Zack Cozart – SS, CIN – (90.75) [79,UR]
88. Jedd Gyorko – 2B/3B, SD – (91.75) [76,UR]
89. Nestor Molina – SP, CWS – (92.33) [66,UR]
90. Justin Nicolino – SP, TOR – (93.00) [71,UR]
91. Taylor Jungmann – SP, MIL – (93.33) [63,UR]
92. Jonathan Schoop – 3B, BAL - (93.67) [77,UR]
93. Wilin Rosario – C, COL - (94.17) [80,UR]
94. Matt Barnes – SP, BOS – (94.33) [69,UR]
95. Brandon Jacobs – OF, BOS – (96.33) [83,UR]
96. Jose Campos – SP, NYY – (98.17) [86,UR]
97. Jed Bradley – SP, MIL – (99.42) [64,UR]
98. Mikie Mahtook – OF, TB – (99.75) [87,UR]
99. Mason Williams – OF, NYY – (100.75) [78,UR]
100. Blake Swihart – C, BOS – (102.08) [88,UR]

First 5 Players out:

Luis Heredia (SP, PIT), CJ Cron (1B/DH, LAA), Matt Szczur (OF, CHC), Matt Adams (1B, STL), Oswaldo Arcia (OF, MIN)

I wanted to formally recognize Andy for his great work on the rankings and he was instrumental in the creating of the rankings, the organizing, as well as helping out bring in people, and he deserves the majority of the credit for putting these great rankings together, so thank you Andy (from the whole group of Rankers).

Well, now that you’ve seen the numbers, feel free to comment away!

Okay so instead of posting the same old that Andy (CHC) and Bradley (STL) did, I think it’s time for something new. Reading over their reviews, I think my picks for the most part align with what they think. My plus guys are their plus guys, their worst picks are my worst picks, and so on. So instead of posting mine on the main page, I’ve decided to have a little fun and create my “Perfect MiLB Draft”. Now, you ask why I wouldn’t just take the top 11 players on the board and call it a perfect draft? Well, that really wouldn’t help you any, now would it?

My goal of this post is to show not only who I think the best “value” was in each round, but to more so show who the best “player” is in a certain round and how they’d fit into my perfect draft. Just like the others, I’m keeping it to the top 11 rounds (one extra bonus round of insight for you!). However, not only am I gonna strive to pick the best player, but sometimes I might have to pass over that player for the “right” player. You’ll see what I mean as we go along.

Rules:
1. Only one player may be selected per round. No excuses. Tough choices must be made
2. Player must be drafted in the round you’re working on. Round 1 means players picked 1-20, round 2 is players 21-40, and so on. No cheating here.

Remember, this is entirely my own opinion and my research/analysis per players.

Round 1
My Pick: OF Bryce Harper WAS (LAD 1.1, 1st overall) [ETA 2012]

Reasoning: Take the best player on the board in round 1. Good reasoning if I do say so. I made this pick of Harper here because he’s got the best ceiling for a hitter in the league, and I think that he opens a lot of doors for me. Taking him allows me to chance myself on pitchers in the future who are high risk high reward, because I don’t have to hope that one of my hitter picks turns into a stud here. Pitchers I think have the best chance of making the jump from mediocrity to stardom.

Best Player: I guess you can argue that Moore or maybe Trout are better, but I like me some Bryce Harper.

Round 2
My Pick: OF Bubba Starling KC (WAS 2.2, 22nd overall) [ETA 2014/2015]

Reasoning: After taking Harper round 1, I don’t want another guy close to the bigs, because that limits the upside of my perfect team. I want the sky as the limit for my team (crossing off Hultzen/Turner). After a heated debate with myself, I decided to take the hitting potential over the pitching potential. I narrowed my list to either Taijuan Walker or Bubba Starling, but as I examined the next round further, I think I can land a great SP prospect next round, and not sacrifice the hitting potential here. Starling has freakish athleticism, and reminds me of a blend of Kemp and Trout. That’s pretty scary. His potential? The Moon and beyond. Unfortunately, that means no Taijuan Walker for my team.

Best Player: You can make a case for Walker, Hultzen, Turner, Starling, Archie Bradley, heck even Lindor or Carlos Martinez here. I think Starling has the potential + talent, so he’s my best player in the round.

Round 3
My Pick: SP Zack Wheeler NYM (STL 3.13, 53rd overall) [ETA 2012/2013]

Reasoning: I really got pidgeon-holed into this pick. It really came down to whether I wanted a pitching prospect in 2 and a hitter in round 3, or vice versa. I took the vice versa approach. After taking potential phenom Starling, I had no choice but to go SP, as next round it really drops off pretty hard. Wheeler is the last true #1/2 semi-ace type pitcher on the board, and this round really didn’t excite me all too much. I thought about taking Walker in round 2, so that I could take any of Yelich/Alonso/Rizzo/Baez etc. in this round. However I think Starling and Wheeler present the most valuable combo, so that’s what I went with. This is a perfect draft, after all.

Best Player: Like I said above, I could have gone Alonso/Yelich/Rizzo here and had one of the best players of the round, depending on what you have to emphasize. I think the best player in the round is Rizzo, but being that I’ve already landed 2 hitters I couldn’t take a 3rd and have a top pitching staff as well.

Round 4
My Pick: OF George Springer HOU (SEA 4.7, 67th overall) [ETA 2013]

Reasoning: ANOTHER OF? is all I can hear being yelled at the screen. “HOW IS THIS DRAFT PERFECT WITH ANOTHER OF!” Well I think Springer is by far the best player in the round, and it’s not close. Just like Harper, and Starling, Springer brings all 5 tools to the table. I don’t think Singleton offers upside close to what Springer does, and he’d be my second choice. Springer has the potential to be Grady Sizemore when Sizemore decided to not get injured and go 25-30. That’s what I see in Springer, and for my 4th round pick I really can’t pass up that potential and that proximity (ETA 2013) for any other player this round.

Best Player: Springer stands head and shoulders above the crowd, Singleton is in second. Grandal is somewhere around Singleton as well.

Round 5
My Pick: SP Daniel Norris TOR (CHC 5.3, 83rd overall) [ETA 2015]

Reasoning: Now we’re starting to see a drop in value overall in the players, and more super high potential picks. Norris I think fits the bill as a guy with superstar upside at SP, but not much to offer as of current stats. A 6′2 lefty who throws mid 90s is difficult to come by, and I think he’s got a great chance to be something special in the league. Rosario or Betances would both be good picks, but since I know who’s at their respective positions a little later on with comparable value, I’d definitely pass on them in round 5 in favor of the other guys a few rounds later. I think I’ll be able to nab a “good” starter in the future with #3/4 upside much later in the draft, so no need to take someone like Barnes (2/3 upside) or Betances (strong potential to land in the ‘pen) when I could have the upside of a #1 (albeit a long ways to go).

Best Player: Norris has the best upside, the best player could be Rosario or Betances. But I’m going to go with Matt Barnes being the best player, because I think he’s close and has a good shot to fulfill his potential as a #2 or #3 starter.

To Recap my roster after 5 rounds…
1. OF Bryce Harper (ETA 2012)
2. OF Bubba Starling (ETA 2014/2015)
3. SP Zack Wheeler (ETA 2012/2013)
4. OF George Springer (ETA 2013)
5. SP Daniel Norris (ETA 2015)

Round 6
My Pick: SP Sonny Gray OAK (LAD 6.1, 101st overall)

Reasoning: I think he’s pretty much what Matt Barnes is for potential, except he’s going to cost me less. I love his upside as a #2/3 starter, BUT even better than Barnes is that he’ll be up in 2012 (or at least should be). I think that by having that upside and being THAT close to the MLB, it’s like getting a guy who by most lists would be ranked in the 50s. Someone who I think offers a similar situation to Gray is Matt Harvey (NYM, taken by TB @ pick 48 [rd 3 pk8]). Both have similar upsides and proximity, but Gray has slightly worse stuff, however has the ballpark advantage for his pitching in OAK. I like taking Gray 10x better than taking Harvey with my 3rd round pick.

Best Player: Gray fits the mold as the best player and the “right” player for my team, so I’ll be happy with him as the best player on here. Also considered were Chad Bettis and Keyvius Sampson.

Round 7
My Pick: RP Rex Brothers COL (BOS 7.15, 135th overall) [ETA 2012]

Reasoning: A RP? Yes. I think this might go down as the best pick in the draft right here. Brothers is fighting for a closers job. He’s got a good shot to swipe it from Bentancourt halfway through the year. The young fireballer is someone I want on my team because he’s got the upside of the #1 Closer, and he’ll have it this year. Instead of guessing if someone will ever become a closer or a reliable player, he’s already integrated into the bullpen, and all that’s left is to get the job. I think my team was getting away from helping me this year a little too much (with the picks of Starling/Springer/Norris having no shot to play before September). I double dipped at guys who would be playing in 2012, trying to even out my team with some current fill ins (Bullpen injuries always seem to happen).

Best Player: Rex Brothers is currently the best player in the round out of his experience. Had I not gone with Brothers, or if he wasn’t taken in this round, guys like Purke/Meyer/Stephenson/Biddle/Brentz would all have made a good case to be this pick.

Round 8
My Pick: 2B Rougned Odor TEX (KC 8.16, 156th overall) [ETA 2015]

Reasoning: Here comes the first IF player I take. He’s not the best player on the board, and probably not even the best IF player available here either (Panik, Colon). But there’s something that makes me think Odor can be Profar-like in flying up the boards. Odor was very unknown in last year, but he’s started to pick up steam after hitting .262 in A- ball as a 17 year old player. I think he offers the superstar upside though, and that’s why I’m picking him. I’ve got no 2B/SS ready to come up, and if I wanted one Colon would have been my pick. But I think my “Perfect” MiLB team should have the potential for each player to be dominant at his position. And Chrisitan Colon or Joe Panik don’t offer the same type of huge upside that Odor does, and that’s why I took him.

Best Player: I’d label either Robbie Grossman or Derek Norris as the “best player” of the round. Grossman gets the nod from me here, I think that he’s well underdrafted here in the 8th round. But I already have a stable of capable OF players (Springer/Harper/Starling) and my C will come later (Ahhh the blessing of foresight).

Round 9
My Pick: SS Andrelton Simmons ATL (WAS 9.2, 162nd overall) [ETA 2013]

Reasoning: Second infielder in a row. He almost beat out Pastornicky in Spring Training, even without playing ever above A-ball. He’s got great potential, and I like this value for him. He too offers all-star type upside, except a little earlier than Odor. I think that he’ll end up playing an integral role in my team in 2013 and beyond, as I think my team might get long in the tooth in the IF by the time Odor comes up. So getting mini “waves” of talent is important to slowly switch to a younger IF for my team.

Best Player: Lance Lynn offers the nearest upside to the bigs, and I think he’s the safest bet of the round. However we found our closer of the future in Brothers, so I don’t want to double dip on a guy who might end up as a 5 starter and a solid RP. I’d rather land the upside of Simmons.

Round 10

My Pick: 3B Edward Salcedo ATL (OAK 10.3, 183rd overall) [ETA 2013]

Reasoning: Yup, chalk up the 3rd IF pick in a row. That’s just how highly I value the top IF prospects, I guess. My reasoning is that I can find a guy with 5 tools early in the draft from the OF (Starling/Springer), and they will actually need to blossom into those 5 tools if they want to be the best in the game. The best OF players in the league all can do at least a bit of both (Ellsbury, Kemp, Braun, McCutchen, JUpton). There are few just power or just speed players who are high on the board in the OF (Bourn). So I need those guys to hit on all 5 tools to fulfill the potential I need from them. However, IF you don’t need that. You can get all power guys (Beltre, JJ Hardy, Bautista) or all speed guys (See: Most SS), but you don’t need both. And I think later round IF players can still have just 3-4 tools and be tops at their position. Remember, this is about maximizing value.
Anyways, Salcedo has the potential to hit the crap out of the ball, and I like that he’s semi-athletic as well, enough to swipe a few bags. I could see him turning into a 30-10 guy in the MLB with a solid albeit not great average. But that’s good enough for a top 5 3B in the league, so I’m not going to fret over the non-5 tool player in the IF.

Best Player: I think Salcedo has a case to be the “best” player of the round too. J.T. Realmuto has the potential to be the top prospect catcher in 2-3 years, so that’s not exactly someone you want to pass up. Levi Michael could also be this pick, without as much upside. I think Salcedo is the best player in the round.

Round 11
My Pick: C Christian Benthancourt ATL (CHC 11.3, 203rd overall) [ETA 2014]

Reasoning: The heir apparent to Brian McCann, Benthancourt gets rave reviews about his upside. He’s got 20 HR potential from the catcher slot, but he’s also got a CANNON for an arm. He’d throw in the upper 90s as a pitcher if he weren’t on the other side of the plate. My team needed a catcher, and I think Benthancourt should have been taken 50+ picks earlier, that’s how good he is. He ranks on a lot of top 100 prospect lists, so I think that getting him at 203 is insane. This will wrap up my team of Perfection.

Best Player: I think Benthancourt ranks head and shoulders (and knees and toes) above the field in this round. I do like Mendez in this round, but he’s not close to Benthancourt.

My Final Perfect Team:

1. OF Bryce Harper (ETA 2012)
2. OF Bubba Starling (ETA 2014/2015)
3. SP Zack Wheeler (ETA 2012/2013)
4. OF George Springer (ETA 2013)
5. SP Daniel Norris (ETA 2015)
6. SP Sonny Gray (ETA 2012)
7. RP Rex Brothers (ETA 2012)
8. 2B Rougned Odor (ETA 2015)
9. SS Andrelton Simmons (ETA 2013)
10. 3B Edward Salcedo (ETA 2013)
11. C Christian Benthancourt (ETA 2014)

Overall I really love this team. A mix of guys who will be up this year (Gray/Brothers/Harper) and guys who will be making their debut in 2015 (Starling/Norris/Odor). I think balance is key in any league, because you never want to be caught without a backup plan. I really did my best to fill all the holes I could on hitting and pitching in 9 rounds. I was really optimistic in the draft with upsides, and obviously some won’t strike gold, but all it takes is one of the 3 IF players to turn into a top 10 player, and I’ve got a huge fantasy star with a pick in the 8th to 10th round. That’s what I targeted late in the draft.

I have just one complaint about my team, and that’s that I didn’t get to take one of the many high upside pitchers I like after round 5. Some guys that I wish I could have taken but didn’t (but you still could!):

Pitchers
Justin Nicolino (rd 6 )
Keyvius Sampson (rd 6 )
Matt Purke (rd 7 )
Robert Stephenson (rd 7 )
Tyler Thornburg (rd 9 )
Dillon Howard (rd 9 )
Trevor Rosenthal (rd 9 )
Andrew Chafin (rd 10 )

Hitters
OF Brandon Jacobs (rd 6 )
OF Brandon Nimmo (rd 6 )
3B Garin Cecchini (rd 7 )
3B Dante Bichette Jr. (rd 8 )
OF Ravel Santana (rd 8 )
OF Robbie Grossman (rd 8 )
2B Taylor Lindsey (rd 9 )
C J.T. Realmuto (rd 10 )
OF Kyle Parker (rd 11 )

I advise you to read up on some of the above pitchers and hitters, they could win you your league in 4 years. Remember, the more high upside arms or bats you have, the better chance you have to find the hidden gem in there. I think that with a little research on the players that you like, you find out the good and bad about them. Remember, the best place to go to see the most updated lists and most informative articles on prospects on the web, including personal takes and scouting reports?

deepleagues.com

So here is my attempt at explaining what goes on in my head before each pick. Here are a couple of things that must be understood before reading this. First, I do not know anything about prospects that does not come from this site and everyone here that comments. I consider myself a compiler of information to which I try to make logical choices from.

Second, if you walk away from this feeling enlightened about the entire minor league system, consult a professional who knows more about this than I do and let him (or her for political correctness) explain where I veered off path.  Remember I told you right away that I have no creditable knowledge of the minor leagues. I am just hoping this turns out to be a good read.

And finally, I am blunt, straight to the point, and think I have a sense of humor. The first two are personality flaws or that is at least what others call it as I think I make it along just fine. If you read this and feel like I am personally attacking your credibility, I do not mean it to be as bad as it sounds, and once again remember the first thing I mentioned. As for the sense of humor, just skip over those parts.

So for any of that are still around here goes nothing…

My strategy has been looking for depth at all positions. I guess you could say trying to build my own AAA team by making sure I have someone that can play every position. To me this is a riskier draft style due to how hit and miss prospects are. I could hit on all of these guys or miss on all of them, and my draft end up being a complete flop where if you have 10 pitchers your chances go up on catching a good pitcher in the draft even though you have sacrificed depth at other positions. But I decided I would try and pick guys that will end up being top 5 in their respective positions somewhere down the road. Low standards, I know. Also, proximity to the majors did not help or hurt a player in most cases.

Rnd 1 Pick 8 – Shelby Miller (STL-P) Grd A

Reason for the pick: I think I wet my pants a little seeing him drop this far. So after a dry pair of pants I didn’t hesitate to take him.

Other options: I was in talks with TB to switch draft slots from 8 to 13 if Miller or Machado did not fall to me at 8. I was looking at either Cole or Mesoraco in that draft slot.

Worst value: I have to agree with the consensus and say Hak-Ju Lee in the 1^st round. But I would say that the pick was only a round off for Seattle. He had a need for a proximate SS and while I would have been more likely to take Tyler Skaggs or Nolan Arenado at this pick, he did fill a need.

Best Value: Julio Teheran falling to 11 was crazy. I had considered taking him at 8 instead of trading the pick, but that is an excellent value at 11.

Rnd 2 Pick 33 – Jake Marisnick (TOR-OF) Grd B+

Reason for the pick: Every time someone mentioned the name Marisnick on this site, there was nothing but good things said. It was so influential that I own Marisnick in all of my other leagues with minor league pools. I just couldn’t let this league be the only one.

Other options: I was looking at 3 others at this pick, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Martinez, and Francisco Lindor. I would have taken any of these 3 if they fell to me.

Worst value: I am going to use my one “hindsight is 20/20” here and go Addison Reed. Reed not winning the closer battle really hurts his value in a 2^nd round slot. I thought it was a bit of a reach in general and missing the closer spot hurts him even worse.

Best Value: I really didn’t see anything this round that stands out as a steal. So feel free to insert your team here (except the HOU-Addison Reed pick). Everyone wins this round!…Well almost everybody.

Rnd 3 Pick 53 – Zack Wheeler (NYM-P) Grd B+

Reason for the pick: Leading up to this pick I was really torn between getting a pitcher or another valuable bat. After I realized how much pitching had already come off the board, I figured Zack Wheeler was a good fit.

Other options: Houston swooped in and made my decision easier by taking Yonder Alonso the pick before me. It was really between these two guys with a settle pick being A.J. Cole if Alonso or Wheeler didn’t make it to me.

Worst Value: I thought Kolten Wong (STL-2B) went at least a round too early, and it surprised me enough to effect my next pick.

Best Value: The only round where I feel certain I got the best value out of my pick (of course I really think that all my guys were the best value in the round but that wouldn’t be fair to this article). I was really surprised by both Wheeler not being picked in round 2 and him falling all the way to me in round 3.

Rnd 4 Pick 68 – Eddie Rosario (MIN-2B/OF) Grd B

Reason for the pick: This is another one of the guys that I kept hearing good things about. I actually dug a little deeper and looked at his stats, and I believe he is an excellent guy to have if he shows that he can stick at 2B. I admit that it was a bit of a reach on him, but I didn’t think he would make it back to me in round 5.

Other options: I was originally looking at Matt Adams and Jonathan Singleton. Adams would have been a good fit since I believe he will be up next year, and Trumbo (my current 1B) will be entrenched at 3B. But all of this is in vain as he was taken along with Singleton before my pick.

Worst value: I love my pick of Eddie Rosario and would make the same pick all over again if the situation was the same, but I also feel with the rest of the picks in the round it was probably the worst value. Like I mentioned for round 3, the first 2B (Wong) came off the board a little quicker than I anticipated. I debated on whether or not Rosario would fall back to me in the next round and decided not to chance it. I probably picked him a round too early, but after seeing Spangenberg and Schoop going before my next pick, I feel like I made the right call.

Best value: I think Tyrell Jenkins (74) and Jake Odorizzi (75) were both solid picks that could have possibly gone the round before.

Rnd 5 Pick 93 – Wilin Rosario (COL-C) Grd B-

Reason for the pick: I thought after I made this pick that I would start a collection of Rosario’s for my minor league roster. I am still not against the idea either. But anyways, I was really looking for a C this pick. I missed out on Montero, Mesoraco, and d’Arnaud from the earlier rounds, and I felt like Rosario was the next best catcher. He did have a good spring this year, plays in the Rocky Mountain air, and should be a good backup for Molina.

Other options: The only two guys I was really considering for this pick were Rosario and Blake Swihart (BOS-C). Proximity to the majors is what really swayed my decision since I would have been ok with either of the two guys at this pick. The only guy I would have taken over a catcher was Luis Heredia (PIT-P).

Worst value: So we are starting to get into the range where I start using Bradley’s rankings as a crutch (more like Bradley is carrying a 200+ lb man on his back, but I digress), so from here on out it’s going to be Bradley’s rankings justifying bad picks. So if you are offended, remember, they are Bradley’s rankings not mine, discuss it with him. KC’s pick (Neil Ramirez, pick 95) screams “reach”.

Best value: I like Houston’s pick of Dellin Betances (NYY-P) at 92. I think he might have been a guy that slipped through the cracks.

Rnd 6 Pick 108 – Chris Parmelee (MIN-1B) Grd B-

Reason for the pick: After I made my pick in round 5, I remembered that I was looking for a 1B that could fill in for the 1B void I would have after Trumbo departs to 3B (I have accepted the fact that Trumbo will receive no playing time at 1B). I am glad I didn’t remember this in round 5 as I would have taken Parmelee a round earlier than apparently I needed to.

Other options: Not sure I was really looking at anyone else.

Worst value: To me it is a tie between a pair of Colorado guys, Tyler Anderson (117) and Trevor Story (113).  When looking at Bradley’s rankings, the Anderson pick screams REACH (and yes Seattle, I did read your analysis before I started working on this round). As for Story, he is log-jammed behind Tulowitzki with no shot to make it out of AAA unless he moves to probably 2B or the OF. Other than that I have no qualms with the pick.

Best value: Best value has to be Tyler Ander…oops reading the wrong line. That is still the worst pick…Taylor Jungmann (CHC, 118). Another guy that I feel slipped through the cracks. See Seattle, you could have had the best valued pick in round 6 and still got your guy in round 12…I mean 7. No more picking on Seattle for me.

Note to Seattle: Bradley ranked Tyler Anderson at 179 not me. So get mad at Bradley.

Rnd 7 Pick 133 – Fautino De Los Santos (OAK-P) Grd C

Reason for the pick: He fits into my MLB strategy for this league (another topic for another day), and I didn’t feel like he would slide any further.

Other options: It would have taken me 6-8 hours to find another pick for this spot, so instead of filling with B.S. I will spend 15 seconds saying I don’t know what my other options would have been.

Worst value: How can I criticize other reliever picks this round when I myself picked a reliever. So I guess all I have to say is at least I didn’t pay for holds in round 2…Just a reminder I warned everyone of my behavior when I began.

Best value: I like Nathan Eovaldi at pick 136. Bryce Brentz (132) was a close second.

Rnd 8 Pick 148 – Ravel Santana (NYY-OF) Grd B-

Reason for the pick: One day I am going to ask how everyone determines upside. I think that is where I really am lacking in assessing minor leaguers. To me Ravel Santana has good upside (if I am wrong there is a comment section down below for everyone to let me know). I think I read somewhere that he has a 5-tool ceiling and I fell for it. Who wouldn’t want 5-tools in round 8 when all the 6-tool guys went several rounds before. So I said what the heck.

Other options: I was going between the two Santana OF’s (more on the other in the next round), but I will tell you I did choose the right one here.

Worst value: Once again by rankings, KC’s pick of Jonathan Villar (151) was a couple of rounds too early. Bradley is a Houston fan and he still ranked him really low. That has to be some kind of red flag warning to avoid. “REACH!” Seattle you are now off the hook with the Tyler Anderson pick.

Pick I liked: I am changing from value based to more of the pick I liked. As we are getting a little deeper we are starting to reach more into personal preferences and getting really close to a point where I no longer consider a pick a reach (sorry KC, still considering “reaches” this round). I liked Joe Panik (143) and Robbie Grossman (149).

Rnd 9 Pick 173 – Domingo Santana (HOU-OF) Grd C+

Reason for the pick: I heard a few (or maybe just one that sounded like a few) comments that Domingo Santana could break out this year. And let’s face it; the Astros are going to need some kind of good news like this for the year. Other than that I have no justification for this pick. Score: Rosario’s 2- Santana’s 2.

Other options: I was considering him for round 8 so since he fell I saw no need in looking for someone else.

Worst value: I have nothing so I will point you in the direction of CHC analysis.

Pick I liked: I liked Lance Lynn at 170. Ok, so I lied. I was looking at taking Lynn this round if he fell to me.

Rnd 10 Pick 188 – Jennry Mejia (NYM-P) Grd B-

Reason for the pick: I started to forget that pitching depth is a good thing, and the forgetfulness seems to be related to some sort of short-term memory loss as my future picks will show. No particular reason for this pick other than the thought that Mejia was the best available pitcher at the time.

Other options: I was looking at Jeurys Familia for this pick as well, but he was taken earlier in the round. I am not quite sure why I am drawn to Mets’ pitching. I think I need to consult someone about my problem.

Worst value: By now everyone is branching out to gut feelings and guesses (as am I). At this point as long as you are not drafting 30 year olds I would say you are good.

Pick I liked: I liked Eduardo Sanchez (191). He has had a strong spring this year which should put to rest any concerns about his shoulder.

So for a recap of my picks:

Shelby Miller (8)

Jake Marisnick (33)

Zack Wheeler (53)

Eddie Rosario (68)

Wilin Rosario (93)

Chris Parmelee (108)

Fautino De Los Santos (133)

Ravel Santana (148)

Domingo Santana (173)

Jennry Mejia (188)

For those that don’t know me from the Deep Leagues forum, I’m Andy and I’m new to the Deep Leagues writing staff, but not at all new to fantasy baseball or scouting/analysis. I’ve been playing fantasy sports for roughly 15 years, baseball has been my primary choice for the last 10 years. I’ve been in a great variety of leagues and have settled on H2H category based leagues as my favorite and any form of roto being my least favorite, even though i enjoy all forms of this great game. I’m very scouting oriented but like to use statistical breakdown and sabermetrics to aid in my scouting. Now that the introduction is out of the way, let’s get to the breakdown of my draft and farm system.

To check out the full draft sheet, follow this link: http://bit.ly/HQfTTl

I focused my draft on two distinct plans. 1) Take high upside guys that can refill my roster in 3-4 years. 2) Focus on the value that is perceived versus how i feel about them. I chose those two plans for one overall reason. The contract structure in our league dictates that most of my young roster will be there for the next 4 years, so i need to plan on losing a majority of them and being able to replace them effectively. I chose to ignore my personal value assessment, because when i try to trade guys, it doesn’t matter how i value them, it’s all about the perception of the other manager involved. So…here we go.

Round 1: Pick 18 (18 overall): 3B Nolan Arenado COL (Grd A-)
Reasons I made the pick: Being at the bottom of round 1 meant that the top prospects would all be gone, so i had to focus on a short list of strong upside guys that could return the most value. Arenado was a no-brainer for me at this position. I lack a regular 3B for my franchise and his power/hit tool are too sweet to pass up

Other Options: My short list at this pick were Nolan Arenado, Bubba Starling and Taijuan Walker.

Best Value: I think the general consensus is that Teheran falling to 11 is a great first round steal.

Biggest “Reach”: I think that Hak-Ju Lee was the biggest reach of the round, but that the 2nd biggest reach was Trevor Bauer @ #4. I think with the #4 pick i would have grabbed Jurickson Profar, Julio Teheran or Shelby Miller. I think Bauer fits better in the 7-10 range.

Round 2: Pick 3 (23): SP Taijuan Walker SEA (Grd A-)
Reasons I made the pick: With Bubba Starling going directly in front of this pick, i had to take Walker. I would have preferred to take Starling but Walker at #23 made a great value for me, considering i was thinking about taking him at #18.

Other Options: After my Arenado pick, i still had two players on my short list, but i also thought about Miguel Sano, Carlos Martinez and Francisco Lindor here. With my round 3 pick being 20 picks away, i saw Walker as the best option. I figured i’d get someone comparable to the others in round 3, but a comparable to Walker would be hard to get.

Best Value: I think this round was pretty solid. Not too many big values to be gained, but if i had to chose, i would probably say that Francisco Lindor at #29 was the best value. Since he was taken 9 picks after Xander Bogaerts i think the value difference is substantial.

Biggest “Reach”: I think that Zack Cozart at #30 was a reach. Detroit draft Jared Cosart at #55 and could have easily had Zack Cozart there and a better pitcher like James Paxton at #30.

Round 3: Pick 3 (43): OF Josh Bell PIT (Grd B+)
Reasons I made the pick: After just missing on Bubba Starling, i focused this pick on outfielders with substantial upside. My next pick would be at #78 so i had to take biggest upside on the board.

Other Options: I narrowed my list to Josh Bell, Oscar Taveras and George Springer. I figured that Springer could go a round later since he’s in Houston’s farm and that Bell offered a bit more than Taveras. Turns out i was right about Springer, hopefully I’m right about Bell versus Taveras as well.

Best Value: I think Billy Hamilton and Anthony Rizzo at #57 and #58 respectively were the best value in this round. Hamilton was taken well behind Javier Baez (45), Kolten Wong (49) and Nick Franklin (51) yet i think he grades out better than almost all of them. I also thought that Rizzo would have gone about 4-6 picks earlier, closer to Alonso.

Biggest “Reach”: Rymer Liriano (44), Randall Delgado (46) and Nick Franklin (51) all seemed like reaches to me. I think Delgado was the only one that was about a half round too early, the others could have easily gone a full round later.

Round 4: Pick 18 (78): SP Zach Lee LAD (Grd B+)
Reasons I made the pick: At this point there were only a handful of B+ grade guys left, and they were all mostly SP. So I felt i had to take the best option from that group, so he could pair with Walker in 2-3 years to head up my rotation.

Other Options: Those B+ players i mentioned were Zach Lee, Daniel Norris, Drew Hutchison, Joe Wieland, and Matt Barnes.

Best Value: I think considering the other B+ SP’s that were taken earlier in the round: Noah Syndergaard (63), Trevor May (73) and Jake Odorizzi (75), i think Zach Lee at #78 was the best of those four, so having him fall to me well after Syndergaard was unexpected for sure.

Biggest “Reach”: I think Matt Adams (61) was a bit high, but considering the drafting of Alonso and Rizzo at the end of the previous round, i can understand reaching for a power 1B at this position in the draft.

Round 4: Pick 3 (83): SP Daniel Norris TOR (Grd B+)
Reasons I made the pick: I followed the same line of thought on this pick as i did on my previous one. Kevin Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus) had Norris at #3 and Syndergaard at #5 in his Toronto org rankings, and John Sickels (Minor League Ball) had them the opposite way with Syndergaard #3 and Norris #5, i felt that getting Norris here showed far more value than Syndergaard going at #63.

Other Options: I still had the same list that i used on my last pick and since only Wieland (80) was the only one missing, I took the my best available.

Best Value: I think with Matt Barnes falling to #97 when Norris (83) and Hutchison (89) were already taken, is the best value in this round.

Biggest “Reach”: I think Luis Heredia (87) is was the biggest reach here. Guys like Drew Hutchison (89), Dellin Betances (92), Neil Ramirez (95) and the aforementioned Matt Barnes (97) would have been better picks in that position, in my opinion.

Round 6: Pick 18 (118): SP Taylor Jungmann MIL (Grd B)
Reasons I made the pick: I decided to follow the same pitching game plan once again. So i took a pitcher with both of my next two picks.

Other Options: I was hoping that Chad Bettis (111) would fall to me, so when he didn’t i narrowed my list to Jungmann, Allen Webster (122) and Matt Purke (123).

Best Value: I think Brandon Nimmo (120) was steal. I would have taken him in the 105-110 range.

Biggest “Reach”: Vinnie Catricala SEA 3B (105) was a big reach to me. His stats look good enough, but he really has no defensive home and could easily struggle against better pitching if he moves up to AAA.

Round 7: Pick 3 (123): SP Matt Purke WAS (Grd B-)
Reasons I made the pick: I decided to follow the pitching heavy game plan, once more. But this pick was a little bit of a reach in my mind. But i justify that by saying i think Purke was a great value pick in this round, and i had to have him. I felt that Purke was the best left out of the remaining pitchers that could be had in this round.

Other Options: My only other choice in this round for pitching would have been Robert Stephenson, and i wasn’t really feeling the choices in hitters at this stage.

Best Value: I wasn’t very impressed with this round at all. I think this is where personal evaluation starts to come into play, and the cream of the crop has already been removed. That being said, I think Robert Stephenson (138), Rex Brothers (135) and Bryce Brentz (132) were all decent values.

Biggest “Reach”: I think Stetson Allie (127) and Jorge Alfaro (128) were big reaches. At this point they were the first two C+ players taken, and there were still at least 4 good rounds of B/B- players available.

Round 8: Pick 18 (158): OF Brian Goodwin WAS (Grd B)
Reasons I made the pick: After taking 4 consecutive pitchers, i felt that i need to switch gears and start readdressing my high upside guys that are about 3 years away from the big leagues.

Other Options: I had Matt Davidson, Joe Panik, Robbie Grossman, Derek Norris and Jonathan Villar all written down for this pick. When they were all taken off the board, i had to scramble and reassess my pick. I think i might have reached a bit on Goodwin, but i think his skills warrant a round 8 (158) pick.

Best Value: For those of you that have the Baseball America Prospect Handbook and follow their 20-80 scale player grades, Jonathan Villar was, i believe the only 65 grade player left, and he was taken at #151, well behind a lot of lower graded players.

Biggest “Reach”: Charlie Blackmon (144) was a bit of a reach. I think he’s at best a 4th outfielder and even though he has proximity to the majors on his side, i don’t think this was the right place to take someone like that.

Round 9: Pick 3 (163): SP Dillon Howard CLE (Grd B-)
Reasons I made the pick: I think i got great value with Howard here, I wanted to focus on hitters but when i saw he was still available i had to take him.

Other Options: I was looking for Grant Green (159) or Andrelton Simmons (162) here, but when they were taken shortly before my pick, I had to reassess my list and then is when i noticed Howard was still available, I felt like it had to be a mistake lol

Best Value: I think Tom Milone (174) was a good value here. With his proximity to a starting job and only costing $2 to start his arb contract, round 9 is a steal.

Biggest “Reach”: I don’t think there were many reaches in this round, if i had to choose one it would be Chris Carter (171). I think he has bottomed out in the minors and needs to show a better strikeout rate in the majors to warrant real attention. But taking him in the 9th round as a major league ready type versus being a prospect is more of a steal than a reach. I guess it can go either way.

Round 10: Pick 18 (198): SP Sean Gilmartin ATL (Grd B)
Reasons I made the pick: I felt that Gilmartin could and should have gone earlier than this so instead of reaching for someone i could take with my next pick, this one made the most sense for me.

Other Options: I was looking at Andrew Chafin, Garrett Richards and Jeurys Familia in this round, but they were all taken.

Best Value: At this point in the draft, i think taking someone with proximity to the majors and that could contribute this year is a value. So guys like Joe Benson (186) and Eduardo Sanchez (191) were the best value that i could write about.

Biggest “Reach”: I have to choose Joan Gregorio here. I think he was quite a reach here and could have easily been had 3-4 round later.

So here’s the list of my draft thus far, including picks after this 10 round breakdown:

(18) Nolan Arenado
(23) Taijaun Walker
(43) Josh Bell
(78) Zach Lee
(83) Daniel Norris
(118) Taylor Jungmann
(123) Matt Purke
(158) Brian Goodwin
(163) Dillon Howard
(198) Sean Gilmartin
(203) Christian Bethancourt
(238) Destin Hood
(243) Dillon Maples
….7 picks still pending

Many of the picks were acquired via trade, and for the most part, my results do not show the trades.  I thought showing a draft would give fantasy owners a little bit of a different prospective than just publishing a list. It’s amazing how actually having to pick changes a team’s perspective!  Once we complete the second portion of the draft (it goes 400 picks), I will post those results.

I am co-managing the Astros, even though the co-owner is doing the majority of the work. The following are my thoughts on my favorite picks, least favorite picks, and our pick. I was 50/50 about posting least favorite pick, but I figured nobody would get offended because: (1) I have been wrong plenty of times, and (2) it’ll make it especially good if the pick works out.

Round #1
1 LAD Bryce Harper
2 TEX Matt Moore
3 OAK Mike Trout
4 TOR Trevor Bauer
5 DET Jurickson Profar
6 KC Jesus Montero
7 CIN Manny Machado
8 STL Shelby Miller
9 HOU Anthony Rendon
10 PHI Wil Myers
11 NYY Julio Teheran
12 PIT Dylan Bundy
13 TB Gerrit Cole
14 MIN Drew Pomeranz
15 ATL Devin Mesoraco
16 BOS Travis d’Arnaud
17 SEA Hak-Ju Lee
18 CHC Nolan Arenado
19 WAS Jameson Taillon
20 COL Tyler Skaggs

Favorite Picks: The first round was not too surprising. My favorite pick was probably the Yankees grabbing Teheran at #11, but as you go down the list, you’ll see a trend of mlb-ready pitching prospects going lower than standard prospect lists (partially b/c of how the rules are structured).

Least Favorite Picks: I think Bauer at #4 was moderately aggressive, and even though I like Hak-Ju Lee, not sure about taking him first round for fantasy purposes.

‘Stros Pick: Number nine was not a great position, and we came one pick short from grabbing somebody on our “most wanted list.” We probably reached grabbing Rendon. Nevertheless, Rendon was the one player we both were reasonably happy taking in this spot. Given the injury concerns, we are probably more enthusiastic about grabbing Rendon at #9 than we should be but ah well…

Round #2
21 COL Xander Bogaerts
22 WAS Bubba Starling
23 CHC Taijuan Walker
24 CIN Miguel Sano
25 BOS Archie Bradley
26 ATL Jacob Turner
27 MIN Danny Hultzen
28 TB Carlos Martinez
29 PIT Francisco Lindor
30 DET Zack Cozart
31 PHI Jarrod Parker
32 HOU Addison Reed
33 STL Jake Marisnick
34 SEA James Paxton
35 NYY Manny Banuelos
36 DET Martin Perez
37 TOR Gary Brown
38 OAK Arodys Vizcaino
39 TEX Brad Peacock
40 LAD Gary Sanchez

Favorite Picks: I think the Braves and Twins got terrific value grabbing Turner and Hultzen at #’s 26 and 27, but the value was probably a little less than I initially thought b/c pitchers consistently went lower than I expected.

Least Favorite Picks: Reed. Also, Cozart at #30 was pretty aggressive but maybe it’ll pay off if he performs in a starting role in CIN this season. Boagerts has solid potential, but I was surprised to see him go #21.

‘Stros Pick: As you can probably tell from my rankings where Reed is not ranked in the Top 100, I was astonishingly unenthusiastic about this pick. But my co-owner really wanted Reed based on our team needing a closer, and hopefully, it’ll work out if he gains the closer role.

Round #3
41 COL Brett Jackson
42 WAS Christian Yelich
43 CHC Josh Bell
44 SEA Rymer Liriano
45 BOS Javier Baez
46 ATL Randall Delgado
47 MIN Oscar Taveras
48 TB Matt Harvey
49 PIT Kolten Wong
50 CIN Cheslor Cuthbert
51 PHI Nick Franklin
52 HOU Yonder Alonso
53 STL Zack Wheeler
54 CIN A.J. Cole
55 DET Jared Cosart
56 DET Tim Wheeler
57 TOR Billy Hamilton
58 OAK Anthony Rizzo
59 TEX Robbie Erlin
60 LAD Ryan Lavarnaway

Favorite picks: I like several of the hitter picks in this round (Yelich, Franklin, Alonso, Hamilton). My favorite pick was probably the Cardinals grabbing Wheeler at #53.

Least Favorite Pick: No picks stick out in this round as especially surprising. Several of the older hitters (Lavarnway, Jackson) were perhaps a little high, but not unreasonable.

‘Stros Pick: I was really happy grabbing Alonso at #52. He was on the list of players I would have been ok taking in round #2, so that made me a little less frustrated about getting Reed.

Round #4
61 LAD Matt Adams
62 TEX Mike Olt
63 OAK Noah Syndergaard
64 TOR Jean Segura
65 DET Leonys Martin
66 KC Jonathan Singleton
67 SEA George Springer
68 STL Eddie Rosario
69 HOU Yasmani Grandal
70 PHI Michael Choice
71 NYY Anthony Gose
72 PIT Nick Castellanos
73 TB Trevor May
74 MIN Tyrell Jenkins
75 ATL Jake Odorizzi
76 BOS Will Middlebrooks
77 NYY Starling Marte
78 CHC Zach Lee
79 WAS Cory Spangenberg
80 COL Joe Wieland

Favorite Picks: Nothing too great, nothing too bad in this round IMO. Castellanos at #72 is solid value considering power hitters were going at some premium.

Least Favorite picks: Eddie Rosario at #68. Not horrible b/c there is lots to like about Rosario, but my thought was he could have theoretically gone one or two rounds later.

‘Stros Pick: I was happy getting Grandal. Several players on our list (Segura, Singleton, Springer) went immediately before we picked, but regardless, we were fine taking Grandal at this spot and adding a little depth at catcher.

Round #5
81 COL Mikie Mahtook
82 WAS Casey Kelly
83 CHC Daniel Norris
84 SEA Jonathan Schoop
85 BOS Taylor Guerrieri
86 ATL Mike Montgomery
87 MIN Luis Heredia
88 TB Mason Williams
89 PIT Drew Hutchison
90 NYY Jedd Gyorko
91 PHI Zack Cox
92 HOU Dellin Betances
93 STL Wilin Rosario
94 CIN Blake Swihart
95 KC Neil Ramirez
96 DET Chris Archer
97 TOR Matt Barnes
98 MIN Jose Campos
99 TEX CJ Cron
100 LAD John Hellweg

Favorite Picks: I think the Phillies got terrific value picking up Cox with the 91st pick. I also like Heredia and Guerrieri at #85 and 87.

Least Favorite Pick: Nothing stands out. I’m not sure about taking Gyorko over Cox, but Gyorko at #90 is decent value. I did not rate John Hellweg particularly high, but that’s probably b/c I’m underrating him.

‘Stros Pick: we were not expecting to take Betances. I was hoping to get Cox at #91, so we did not really have a great backup pick for this spot. In retrospect, I am glad we went with a player we thought had good market value at this spot instead of reaching for players we really liked more subjectively.

Round #6
101 LAD Sonny Gray
102 TEX Adonys Cardona
103 OAK Justin Nicolino
104 TOR Nestor Molina
105 DET Vincent Catricala
106 NYY Daniel Corcino
107 CIN Matt Szczur
108 STL Chris Parmelee
109 HOU Brandon Jacobs
110 PHI Drew Smyly
111 NYY Chad Bettis
112 PIT Elier Hernandez
113 TB Trevor Story
114 MIN Keyvius Sampson
115 ATL Jed Brantley
116 BOS Aaron Hicks
117 SEA Tyler Andersson
118 CHC Taylor Jungmann
119 WAS Liam Hendriks
120 COL Brandon Nimmo

Favorite Picks: I like Atlanta and Chicago grabbing the two Brewers (in the real world) pitchers—Bradley and Jungmann—at #’s 115 and 118. Even though he’s a little speculative, I think Colorado getting Nimmo at #120 was great value.

Least Favorite Picks: Cardona offers huge upside, but #102 was probably a little high for me.

‘Stros Pick: We actually traded away this pick for additional cap room and drafted Jacobs on another team’s behalf.

Round #7
121 COL Garin Cecchini
122 WAS Allen Webster
123 CHC Matt Purke
124 SEA Robert Bundy
125 BOS Jesse Biddle
126 ATL Alexander Torres
127 MIN Stetson Allie
128 TB Jorge Alfaro
129 PIT Alex Meyer
130 NYY Alex Colome
131 PHI Deck McGuire
132 HOU Bryce Brentz
133 STL Fautino De Los Santos
134 CIN Oswaldo Arcia
135 BOS Rex Brothers
136 DET Nate Eovaldi
137 TOR Tommy Joseph
138 OAK Robert Stephenson
139 TEX Kaleb Cowart
140 LAD Jose Fernandez

Favorite Picks: Nothing I really love. But one thing I noticed are several high upside pitchers from the 2011 draft (Stephenson and Fernandez) going at #138 and #140, which I think is solid value when you consider it’s 50-60 picks lower than several other 2011 HS pitchers who arguably offer somewhat comparable value.

Least Favorite Picks: Bobby Bundy is a solid sleeper, but since the upside is arguably limited, I’m not sure about grabbing him at #124. Purke is interesting…I was surprised he went #123. But I might just be putting him as a “least favorite pick” because I was hoping to steal him a few rounds later.

‘Stros Pick: Really happy to get Brentz . He was one of the players I really wanted, and even though I’ve been overvaluing him for awhile, I was glad we are able to trade away our previous pick and still acquire him.

Round #8
141 LAD Joe Ross
142 TEX Matt Davidson
143 MIN Joe Panik
144 TOR Charlie Blackmon
145 DET Christian Colon
146 KC Dante Bichette Jr.
147 CIN Cartier “Niko” Goodrum
148 STL Ravel Santana
149 HOU Robbie Grossman
150 PHI Derek Norris
151 KC Jonathan Villar
152 PIT Austin Hedges
153 TB John Lamb
154 MIN Christian Villanueva
155 ATL Marcell Ozuna
156 KC Rougned Odor
157 SEA Enny Romero
158 CHC Brian Goodwin
159 WAS Grant Green
160 COL Cody Buckel

Favorite Picks: Several 2011 draft picks I really liked: Joe Ross was a steal at #141, and Panik and Goodwin are also decent value. Enny Romero is speculative, but nevertheless, I really liked that pick b/c I like his chances of increasing his stock this season.

Least Favorite Picks: In this round, we started getting into the territory of picks where my lack of enthusiasm was partially due to lack of familiarity. What do y’all think of Niko Goodrum and Christian Villanueva?

‘Stros Pick: Robbie Grossman…sorta blah about this pick initially. My co-owner really liked Grossman, and even though I am not sold,  the pick is growing on me because I think he provides fine value at that spot.

Round #9
161 COL Tyler Thornburg
162 WAS Andrelton Simmons
163 CHC Dillon Howard
164 SEA Yordano Ventura
165 BOS Brody Colvin
166 ATL Dan Vogelbach
167 MIN Ronald Guzman
168 TB Jeimer Candelario
169 PIT Jose Osuna
170 NYY Lance Lynn
171 PHI Chris Carter
172 HOU Wily Peralta
173 STL  Domingo Santana
174 NYY  Tom Milone
175 KC  Robbie Ross
176 PIT  Anthony Ranaudo
177 TOR Eric Surkamp
178 OAK Trevor Rosenthal
179 TEX Hector Sanchez
180 LAD Taylor Lindsay

Favorite Picks: Gotta say…think the‘stros got good value getting Peralta at #172. But I also think Ranaudo at #176 is a decent bounce back pick here.

Least Favorite Picks: Surprisingly, nothing I really dislike here. A few guys I would not necessarily have picked that high (Candelario, Sanchez, Osuna), but  nothing I would consider unreasonable.

‘Stros Pick: Never expected to pick Peralta…think he is probably overrated on many prospect lists. But it’s amazing how getting him this late will change your opinion.

Round #10
181 LAD Garrett Richards
182 TEX Joan Gregorio
183 OAK Edward Salcedo
184 TOR Andrew Susac
185 DET Jeurys Familia
186 KC  Joe Benson
187 CIN JT Realmuto
188 STL Jennry Mejia
189 HOU Levi Michael
190 PHI
191 NYY
192 PIT
193 TB
194 MIN
195 ATL
196 BOS
197 SEA
198 CHC
199 WAS
200 COL

Favorite Picks: Garrett Richards at #181 was a good pick IMO.

Least Favorite Picks: Not too enthusiastic about many of these players, but that’s what happens when you get later in the draft.

‘Stros Pick: We wanted to add another infielder, and even though the upside might be limited, we were happy to take Levi Michael at this spot.

]]> http://www.deepleagues.com/2012/03/20/deep-leagues-farm-draft-part-2/feed/ 19 http://www.deepleagues.com/2012/02/02/prospects-101-250/ http://www.deepleagues.com/2012/02/02/prospects-101-250/#comments Thu, 02 Feb 2012 19:54:46 +0000 Bradley O'Neill http://www.deepleagues.com/?p=3800 Here are prospects 101-250. I created this a little quickly, but I wanted to go ahead and publish the second part so we can update a complete list.  In a few weeks, we’ll publish the first version of the list we will use throughout the season that includes amateur and international prospects.  As always, feedback is appreciated so let me know of any rankings that can improve.

New Dynasty League: Also, a few readers and I are starting a dynasty league.  We discuss the rules in the forums, and it should be a lot of fun.  We have several open spots, so if you are interested in playing, post your contact information here or email it to boneill@fko-law.com.

101.Jonathan Schoop—2B, Orioles
102.Chris Parmelee-1B, Twins
103.Garin Checcini—3B, Red Sox
104.Mason Williams—OF, Yankees
105.Addison Reed—P, White Sox
106.Jed Gyorko—OF, Padres
107.Garrett Richards—P, Angels
108.Casey Kelly—P, Padres
109.Tim Wheeler—OF, Rockies
110.Kaleb Cowart—3B, Angels
111.Deck McGuire—P, Blue Jays
112.Taylor Guerrieri—P, Rays
113.C.J. Cron-1B, Angels
114.Eddie Rosario—2B/OF, Twins
115.Jesse Biddle—P, Phillies
116.Jose Fernandez—P, Marlins
117.Oswaldo Arcia—OF, Twins
118.Trevor Story—SS, Rockies
119.Blake Swihart-C, Red Sox
120.Chad Bettis—P, Rockies
121.Robbie Grossman—OF, Pirates
122.Tyler Thornburg—P, Brewers
123.Norichika Aoki—OF, Brewers
124.Andrelton Simmons—SS, Braves
125.Robert Stephenson—P, Reds
126.Joe Panik—SS, Giants
127.Matt Adams-1B, Cardinals
128.Christian Colon—SS, Royals
129.Alex Colome—P, Rays
130.Mikie Mahtook—OF, Rays
131.Chris Archer—P, Rays
132.Robbie Ross—P, Rangers
133.Vince Caltricala—3B, Mariners
134.Christian Bethancourt-C, Braves
135.Dillon Maples—P, Cubs
136.Brandon Jacobs—OF, Red Sox
137.Drew Smyly—P, Tigers
138.Jeurys Familia—P, Mets
139.Alex Meyer—P, Nationals
140.Domingo Santana—OF, Astros
141.Matt Dominguez—3B, Marlins
142.Cody Buckel—P, Rangers
143.Aaron Hicks—OF, Twins
144.Brandon Nimmo—OF, Mets
145.Tommy Joseph-C, Giants
146.Austin Hedges-C, Padres
147.Dillon Howard—P, Indians
148.Derek Norris-C, Athletics
149.Joe Ross—P, Padres
150.Reese Havens—2B, Mets
151.Charlie Blackmon—OF, Rockies
152.Trey McNutt—P, Cubs
153.Levi Michael—SS, Twins
154.Neil Ramirez—P, Rangers
155.Dante Bichette, Jr.—3B, Yankees
156.Liam Hendriks—P, Twins
157.Austin Romine-C, Yankees
158.Matthew Purke—P, Nationals
159.Henry Owens—P, Red Sox
160.Brian Goodwin—OF, Nationals
161.Taylor Lindsey—2B, Angels
162.Chris Reed—P, Dodgers
163.Tim Beckham—SS, Rays
164.James Darnell—3B, Padres
165.Chad James—P, Marlins
166.Ravel Santana—OF, Yankees
167.Tyler Matzek—P, Rockies
168.Tyler Goeddel—3B, Rays
169.Sean Gilmartin—P, Braves
170.Anthony Ranaudo—P, Red Sox
171.Rougned Odor—2B, Rangers
172.Daniel Corcino—P, Reds
173.Jennry Mejia—P, Mets
174.Sebastian Valle—C, Phillies
175.Grant Green—OF, Athletics
176.Marcell Ozuna—OF, Marlins
177.Elier Hernandez—OF, Royals
178.Jon Pettibone—P, Phillies
179.Tyler Anderson—P, Rockies
180.Casey Crosby—P, Tigers
181.Jonathan Galvez—2B, Padres
182.Adeiny Hechavarria—SS, Blue Jays
183.Tom Milone—P, Athletics
184.Eric Surkamp—P, Giants
185.Brandon Guyer—OF, Rays
186.Travis Harrison—3B, Twins
187.Andy Oliver—P, Tigers
188.Lance Lynn—Cardinals
189.Jorge Alfaro—C, Rangers
190.Hudson Boyd—P, Twins
191.Ronald Torreyes—2B, Cubs
192.Chris Carter-OF, Athletics
193.Aaron Sanchez—P, Blue Jays
194.Jake Hager—SS, Rays
195.Jose Iglesias—SS, Red Sox
196.Alex Liddi—3B, Mariners
197.Andrew Chafin—P, Diamondbacks
198.Sean Coyle—2B, Red Sox
199.Brody Colvin—P, Philles
200.Ronald Guzman—1B, Rangers
201.Kyle Gibson—P, Twins
202.Tyler Pastornicky—SS, Braves
203.Roman Mendez—P, Rangers
204.Francisco Martinez—3B, Mariners
205.Miles Head-1B, Athletics
206.Anthony Meo—P, Diamondbacks
207.Juan Oramas—P, Padres
208.JT Realmuto—C, Marlins
209.Jordanny Valdespin—SS, Mets
210.Brian Dozier—SS, Twins
211.Garrett Gould—P, Dodgers
212.Wilmer Flores—SS, Mets
213.Enny Romero—P, Rays
214.Dan Vogelbach—1B, Cubs
215.Stetson Allie—P, Pirates
216.Kyle Weiland—P, Astros
217.John Lamb—P, Royals
218.Sammy Solis—P, Nationals
219.Christian Vazquez—P, Red Sox
220.Paul Clemens—P, Astros
221.Jackie Bradley, Jr—OF, Red Sox
222.Tony Sanchez—C, Pirates
223.Will Swanner—C, Rockies
224.Trevor Rosenthal—P, Cardinals
225.David Holmberg—P, Diamondbacks
226.Drew Vettleson—OF, Rays
227.Yordano Ventura—P, Royals
228.Parker Birdwell—P, Orioles
229.Jaff Decker—OF, Padres
230.Eugenio Suarez—SS, Tigers
231.Kevin Comer—P, Blue Jays
232.Ronny Rodriguez—SS, Indians
233.Ryan Brett—2B, Rays
234.Luke Jackson—P, Rangers
235.Jonathan Villar–SS, Astros
236.Adonis Cardona—P, Blue Jays
237.Delino Deshields—2B, Astros
238.Eduardo Sanchez—P, Cardinals
239.Kyle McPherson—P, Pirates
240.Josh Sale—OF, Rays
241.Jeff Ames—P, Rays
242.Nomar Mazara—1B, Rangers
243.Alex Wimmers—P, Twins
244.Zach Cates—P, Cubs
245.Noah Perio—2B, Marlins
246.Jesus Aguilar—1B, Indians
247.Tomas Telis—C, Rangers
248.Brett Marshall—P, Yankees
249.Derek Dietrich—SS, Rays
250.Michael Kelly—P, Padres

]]> http://www.deepleagues.com/2012/02/02/prospects-101-250/feed/ 41 http://www.deepleagues.com/2012/01/27/top-100-prospects-version-2-2/ http://www.deepleagues.com/2012/01/27/top-100-prospects-version-2-2/#comments Fri, 27 Jan 2012 19:44:00 +0000 Bradley O'Neill http://www.deepleagues.com/?p=3793 Here is an updated version of our Top 100 prospects list. In the next few weeks, we will work on listing the next 150 prospects.  Then, we will incorporate amateur players and  have a Top 250 list which we will update regularly throughout the season. As always, feedback is appreciated so let us know which players you believe are rated too high or too low.

1. Bryce Harper—OF, Nationals
2. Matt Moore—P, Rays
3. Yu Darvish—P, Rangers
4. Mike Trout—OF, Angels
5. Julio Teheran—P, Braves
6. Jurickson Profar—SS, Rangers
7. Shelby Miller—P, Cardinals
8. Jesus Montero-C, Mariners
9. Manny Machado—SS, Orioles
10. Gerrit Cole—P, Pirates
11. Devin Mesoraco-C, Reds
12. Trevor Bauer—P, Diamondbacks
13. Yoennis Cespedes—OF, Free Agent
14. Tyler Skaggs—P, Diamondbacks
15. Anthony Rendon—3B, Nationals
16. Dylan Bundy—P, Orioles
17. Drew Pomeranz—P, Rockies
18. Nolan Arenado—3B, Rockies
19. Travis D’Arnaud-C, Blue Jays
20. Danny Hultzen—P, Mariners
21. Wil Myers—OF, Royals
22. Jacob Turner—P, Tigers
23. Jameson Taillon—P, Pirates
24. Bubba Starling—OF, Royals
25. Taijuan Walker—P, Mariners
26. Yonder Alonso-1B, Padres
27. Zach Wheeler—P, Mets
28. Miguel Sano—3B, Twins
29. Carlos Martinez—P, Cardinals
30. Martin Perez—P, Rangers
31. Archie Bradley—P, Diamondbacks
32. Francisco Lindor—SS, Indians
33. James Paxton—P, Mariners
34. Oscar Tavares—OF, Cardinals
35. Jarrod Parker—P, Athletics
36. Arodys Vizcaino—P, Braves
37. Gary Brown—OF, Giants
38. Christian Yelich—OF, Marlins
39. Randall Delgado—P, Braves
40. Nick Franklin—SS, Mariners
41. Xander Boagerts—SS, Red Sox
42. Jorge Soler—OF, Free Agent
43. Jake Marisnick—OF, Blue Jays
44. Leonys Martin—OF, Rangers
45. Manny Banuelos—P, Yankees
46. Matt Harvey—P, Mets
47. Drew Hutchinson—P, Blue Jays
48. Jake Odorizzi—P, Royals
49. Anthony Rizzo-1B, Cubs
50. Jean Segura—SS, Angels
51. Robbie Erlin—P, Padres
52. Zach Cox—3B, Cardinals
53. Rymer Liriano—OF, Padres
54. Michael Choice—OF, Athletics
55. Gary Sanchez-C, Yankees
56. Yasmani Grandal-C, Padres
57. Anthony Gose—OF, Blue Jays
58. Javier Baez-SS, Cubs
59. Hak Ju Lee—SS, Rays
60. Trevor May—P, Phillies
61. Tyrell Jenkins—P, Cardinals
62. Joe Weiland—P, Padres
63. Billy Hamilton—SS, Reds
64. Brett Jackson—OF, Cubs
65. George Springer—OF, Astros
66. Taylor Jungmann—P, Brewers
67. Matt Barnes—P, Red Sox
68. Dellin Betances—P, Yankees
69. Mike Montgomery—P, Royals
70. Jed Bradley—P, Brewers
71. AJ Cole—P, Athletics
72. Cory Spangenberg—3B, Padres
73. Jarred Cosart—P, Astros
74. Kolten Wong—2B, Cardinals
75. Mike Olt—3B, Rangers
76. Josh Bell—OF, Pirates
77. Starling Marte—OF, Pirates
78. Sonny Gray—P, Athletics
79. Zach Lee—P, Dodgers
80. Brad Peacock—P, Athletics
81. Nestor Molina—P, White Sox
82. Cheslor Cuthbert—3B, Royals
83. Jonathan Singleton-1B, Astros
84. Noah Syndergaard—P, Blue Jays
85. Wily Peralta—P, Brewers
86. Allen Webster—P, Dodgers
87. Daniel Norris—P, Blue Jays
88. Alex Torres—P, Rays
89. Justin Nicolino—P, Blue Jays
90. Luis Heredia—P, Pirates
91. Ryan Lavarnway-C, Red Sox
92. Wilin Rosario-C, Rockies
93. Will Middlebrooks—3B, Red Sox
94. Nick Castellanos—3B, Tigers
95. Matt Szczur—OF, Cubs
96. Bryce Brentz—OF, Red Sox
97. Jose Campos—P, Yankees
98. Nathan Eovaldi—P, Dodgers
99. Keyvious Sampson—P, Padres
100. Zach Cozart—SS, Reds

Some Notable Players Not Listed: Oswaldo Arcia (OF, Twins), Christian Bethancourt (C, Braves), Chad Bettis (P, Rockies), Jesse Biddle (P, Phillies), Garin Checcini (3B, Red Sox), Kaleb Cowart (3B, Angels), Jose Fernandez (P, Marlins), Robbie Grossman (OF, Pirates), Jed Gyorko (3B, Padres), Casey Kelly (P, Padres), Deck McGuire (P, Blue Jays), Chris Parmelee (1B, Twins), Garrett Richards (P, Angels), Eddie Rosario (2B/OF, Twins), Jonathan Schoop (2B, Orioles), Andrelton Simmons (SS, Braves), Tyler Thornburg (P, Brewers), Tim Wheeler (OF, Rockies), Mason Williams (OF, Yankees)

]]> http://www.deepleagues.com/2012/01/27/top-100-prospects-version-2-2/feed/ 95 http://www.deepleagues.com/2012/01/11/shortstop/ http://www.deepleagues.com/2012/01/11/shortstop/#comments Wed, 11 Jan 2012 19:41:51 +0000 Simon Allan http://www.deepleagues.com/?p=3784 One of the difficulties in drafting is knowing which position a player is likely to end up in once he reaches the big leagues. that’s a particular problem with shortstops, as many, if not most, young prospects grow up playing short, simply because they were usually the best athlete in school or college teams. For example, Miguel Cabrera played shortstop in low A ball, although nobody really thought he had a chance to stick at the position.

Things are further complicated because teams like to keep prospects playing short, even if they don’t expect them to stick there for ever. This can be for a number of reasons – they hope that the player may develop into a competent shortstop, even if it seems unlikely, they want the player to work on skills which are best practiced at short, or they want the player to get more defensive reps, and the ball comes to the shortstop more frequently than other infielders.

I’m going to go through Bradley’s top 50 shortstops, and offer an opinion on who might stick, and who might move. I should say that these are based on published reports, rather than my own scouting efforts. I have seen very few of these players actually play.

1. Jurickson Profar (TEX) – Will stick at shortstop, based on ability. There is some discussion that he might move to second as the Rangers are more likely to have a vacancy there when he’s ready. My opinion is that Andrus is not special enough to make that necessary, and may not still be in Texas then anyway, so I would see Profar remaining at short.

2. Manny Machado (BAL) – Has a good chance to stick at shortstop, if he doesn’t just outgrow the position. If he does, he’ll move to third, and his bat is good enough that this would only cause a minor drop in value.

3. Francisco Lindor (CLE) – Will stick at shortstop. Also general reports on Lindor since signing have been very good. He could end up being a steal for the Indians.

4. Nick Franklin (SEA) – Has a good chance to stick. If he does move, it would be to second.

5. Xander Bogaerts (BOS) – Will likely have to move. I’ve seen estimates of his chances of sticking which range from 0 to around 35%. If he does move, the first move is to third, but there are suggestions he may not even stick there, and could end up either as a first baseman or an outfielder. It’s entirely possible that the bat will turn out to be good enough to play anywhere though.

6. Billy Hamilton (CIN) - Probably more likely than not to stick at short, although there is persistent talk that he would be a second baseman in the bigs due to a weak arm. All speed, no power guy profiles better as a shortstop

7. Hak-Ju Lee (TAM) – Will stick at short.

8. Jean Segura (LAA) - Was once a second baseman, converted to short last year. No obvious problems, but he was injured a lot. Yet to prove he can handle the position, although there appears to be no reason why he couldn’t.

9. Javier Baez (CHC) – Minimal pro experience, does not look like a shortstop – lacks speed. Will probably have to move to third relatively early in his development. Still unclear whether third would be his pro position. Bat is good enough for third anyway, as he was likely drafted on the assumption he wouldn’t stick at short.

10. Zach Cozart (CIN) – Will stick at short. Should be the starter for Cincinnati this year.

11. Trevor Story (COL) – Can you say blocked? The one thing you can say is that he will not be the starting shortstop for the Rockies any time soon. Likely has the skills for short, so he could play there if traded, or could emd up at second (most likely) or third (if Arenado doesn’t work out), or as a utilityman. I like him as a prospect.

12. Christian Colon (KCR) – Only has value in a deeper league. Ceiling is not that high, and is unlikely to displace Alcides Escobar or Johnny Giavotella, so is more likely to be a defensive minded utilityman.

13. Levi Michael (MIN) – Not a classic quick twitch short stop, but gets everything out of his talent, so it wouldn’t be a shock if he does manage to stick. If he isn’t a SS, he’s probably going to be a second baseman. The move would impact on his value, as his bat is not that special.

14. Joe Panik (SFG) – Playable at short, but probably better as a second baseman. Could be lined up to take over from Freddy Sanchez in two years time. Will continue to play short at the moment – there are no significant blocks there if he continues to do a good job.

15. Tim Beckham (TAM) – Has got to AAA at short, but has limitations defensively. Hak-Ju Lee is far superior defensively, and could be the long term solution at short for Tampa. That would leave Beckham in a utility role.

16. Andrelton Simmons (ATL) – Will stick at short.

17. Tyler Pastornicky (ATL) – Will stick at short.

18. Wilmer Flores (NYM) – Will not stick at short, and could already be in the process of moving. Played 3rd in the Venezuelan League this winter. The question with Flores is whether he can stick at 3rd, or will end up at 1st or in the OF, and then whether he will have the bat for the position. His bat is relatively good, but may not be enough for an offense-first position.

19. Jose Iglesias (BOS) - Will stick at short.

20. Brian Dozier (MIN) – Unlikely to play short full time in the bigs. Profiles better as a second baseman, although he could play short from time to time, so could end up as a utility player.

21. Jake Hager (TAM) - Lacks range to play short in the bigs. Could play 2nd or 3rd.

22. Adeiny Hechevarria (TOR) – Will stick at short.

23. Jonathon Villar (HOU) – Will stick at short. I like the tools.

24. Chris Owings (ARI) – Will stick at short.

25. Derek Dietrich (TAM) – Likely to have to move off short. 3rd is probably his most natural position, although he would be blocked forever. Could also be used at 2nd.

26. Matt Lipka (ATL) - Already moved to centre field.

27. Rosell Herrera (COL) - Likely to outgrow SS. Will move to 3rd. The real question is whether he will stick there, or end up at first or in the outfield. The bat has potential, but obviously more is required as he moves down the defensive spectrum.

28. Ronny Rodriguez (CLE) - Hard to find too much info on him, but there are questions about his defense.

29. Shawon Dunston Jr. (CHC) – Cubs see him as a centre fielder. I would rank him lower (and he isn’t going to be a shortstop).

30. Yordy Cabrera (OAK) – Likely to have to move off short due to a lack of range. Most likely to end up at third.

31. Freddy Galvis (PHI) - Will stick at short.

32. Tyler Saladino (CWS) - Has a good chance to stick at short. If not, would play second. His bat has good power for a middle infielder.

33. Zach Walters (WAS) – Played primarily at SS, but also got time at 2nd and 3rd when he played for Arizona. Got traded, and has played exclusively at short in the Washington system. There are questions about his range, and he could end up as a utilityman who can play a semi-acceptable short.

34. Junior Lake (CHC) - Unlikely to stick at short. Will be tried at 3rd, but may end up as an outfielder.

35. Cito Culver (NYY) – Should stick at short. Young, but defensive reports are good. Stock will rise if the bat improves too.

36. Martin Peguero (SEA) – Reports on his defense are not great, and it seems likely that he will move, either to second, or, more likely, to third.

37. Brad Miller (SEA) - Range is reasonably OK, but throwing is an issue. Could have to move to second. I like him better than Peguero.

38. Nick Ahmed (ATL) – Reports are mixed – he doesn’t always look smooth, but should be able to stick.

39. Eugenio Suarez (DET) – Good reports on defense. Bat appears to have some pop, and would move up the list significantly if the bat develops well.

40. Marcus Littlewood (SEA) - Doesn’t appear to have the athleticism required to play short, and has played some second base, although range could be an issue there. Some thoughts that he could play at third, and I have seen him listed as a C/SS. OK, I don’t know where he’ll play, but it likely won’t be short.

41. Brandon Martin (TAM) - Should stick at short.

42. Jace Peterson (SDP) – Some questions to be answered, but more likely to stick than not. Bat is looking promising, and he has speed. Could improve a lot next year.

43. Christian Lopes (TOR) - Questions about his ability to stick at short. Could end up at either second or third.

44. Jiovanni Mier (HOU) – Will stick at short.

45. DiDi Gregorious (CIN) – Will stick at short. I would rank him a fair bit higher.

46. Roman Quinn (PHI) - Will stick at short.

47. Josh Rutledge (COL) – Will probably move to second. Bat has potential if he can put up numbers outside the Cal League.

48. Eduardo Escobar (CWS) – Glove is good enough to stick, but he could be used as a defensive utility player.

49. Jake Lemmerman (LAD) - Little information available – tools are average. No indication of a switch in the near future.

50 (tie). Hector Gomez (COL) – Strong glove, but with Tulo ensconced at short, he’s likely to end up as a utility player. Bat has some pop.

50 (tie). Carlos Truinfel (SEA) – Mixed reports – has a degree of athleticism, but defense needs to improve to stick at short.

1. Matt Moore—Rays
2. Yu Darvish—Rangers
3. Julio Teheran—Braves
4. Shelby Miller—Cardinals
5. Trevor Bauer—Diamondbacks
6. Gerrit Cole—Pirates
7. Tyler Skaggs—Diamondbacks
8. Dylan Bundy—Orioles
9. Drew Pomeranz—Rockies
10. Danny Hultzen—Mariners
11. Jacob Turner—Tigers
12. Jameson Taillon—Pirates
13. Taijuan Walker—Mariners
14. Zach Wheeler—Mets
15. Carlos Martinez—Cardinals
16. Martin Perez—Rangers
17. James Paxton—Mariners
18. Jarrod Parker—Athletics
19. Arodys Vizcaino—Braves
20. Randall Delgado—Braves
21. Archie Bradley—Diamondbacks
22. Matt Harvey—Mets
23. Drew Hutchinson—Blue Jays
24. Jake Odorizzi—Royals
25. Manny Banuelos—Yankees
26. Robbie Erlin—Padres
27. Trevor May—Phillies
28. Tyrell Jenkins—Cardinals
29. Joe Weiland—Padres
30. Taylor Jungmann—Brewers
31. Matt Barnes—Red Sox
32. Dellin Betances—Yankees
33. Mike Montgomery—Royals
34. Jed Bradley—Brewers
35. AJ Cole—Athletics
36. Sonny Gray—Athletics
37. Zach Lee—Dodgers
38. Brad Peacock—Athletics
39. Nestor Molina—White Sox
40. Noah Syndergaard—Blue Jays
41. Wily Peralta—Brewers
42. Allen Webster—Dodgers
43. Daniel Norris—Blue Jays
44. Alex Torres—Rays
45. Justin Nicolino—Blue Jays
46. Luis Heredia—Pirates
47. Jose Campos—Mariners
48. Nathan Eovaldi—Dodgers
49. Keyvious Sampson—Padres
50. Deck McGuire—Blue Jays
51. Addison Reed—White Sox
52. Garrett Richards—Angels
53. Casey Kelly—Padres
54. Jesse Biddle—Phillies
55. Jose Fernandez—Marlins
56. Chad Bettis—Rockies
57. Tyler Thornburg—Brewers
58. Robert Stephenson—Reds
59. Jarred Cosart—Astros
60. Alex Colome—Rays
61. Chris Archer—Rays
62. Robbie Ross—Rangers
63. Taylor Guerrieri—Rays
64. Dillon Maples—Cubs
65. Drew Smyly—Tigers
66. Jeurys Familia—Mets
67. Alex Meyer—Nationals
68. Cody Buckel—Rangers
69. Trey McNutt—Cubs
70. Neil Ramirez—Rangers
71. Dillon Howard—Indians
72. Joe Ross—Padres
73. Liam Hendriks—Twins
74. Matthew Purke—Nationals
75. Henry Owens—Red Sox
76. Chris Reed—Dodgers
77. Chad James—Marlins
78. Tyler Matzek—Rockies
79. Sean Gilmartin—Braves
80. Anthony Ranaudo—Red Sox
81. Daniel Corcino—Reds
82. Jennry Mejia—Mets
83. Jon Pettibone—Phillies
84. Casey Crosby—Tigers
85. Tom Milone—Athletics
86. Eric Surkamp—Giants
87. Andy Oliver—Tigers
88. Hudson Boyd—Twins
89. Aaron Sanchez—Blue Jays
90. Andrew Chafin—Diamondbacks
91. Kyle Gibson—Twins
92. Roman Mendez—Rangers
93. Anthony Meo—Diamondbacks
94. Juan Oramas—Padres
95. Garrett Gould—Dodgers
96. Enny Romero—Rays
97. Stetson Allie—Pirates
98. Kyle Weiland—Astros
99. John Lamb—Royals
100. Adonis Cardona—Blue Jays